Wash, rinse, repeat.  Florida is no closer to Georgia right now than it was the previous 2 seasons, getting pushed around (again) in an embarrassing 43-20 blowout loss.  Every issue the Gators have had on either offense, defense, or special teams was magnified against the Bulldogs.  I wasn’t one of the delusional fans who thought there was more than a remote chance at an upset win, and sadly I was right.

After a terrific opening possession that led to a TD pass from Graham Mertz to Tre Wilson, the offense stalled out and was inept until garbage time.  Florida managed only the same amount of total yardage after that initial drive until the 4th quarter when the game was out of hand.  The offensive line was brutally bad, getting manhandled all afternoon and endangering the health of Mertz with terrible pass-blocking.  Once again, after the first well-scripted series, the rest of the game was a disjointed mess.  Billy Napier didn’t help the cause at all with his rendition of the infamous 1976 “4th-and-dumb” play call by Doug Dickey.  Why on 4th down with less than a yard to gain he tried the SAME play that they had run in just their previous game against South Carolina – the wildcat formation with Trevor Etienne trying to throw a flat pass – was beyond me.  Just line up 5-wide, and allow your struggling O-line to only have to block some combination of 6 DL/LB and run a simple QB sneak with Mertz, who is big and strong enough to get the first down.  That play gave Georgia all of the momentum, as they extended the lead to 17-7 immediately after and rolled from there.  Finally, why the TEs were ignored in the passing game is a mystery, and really impacted the effectiveness of the offense.  Napier really needs to recuse himself of any playcalling and hire a legit OC, as he simply lacks any feel for situational football and can’t seem to provide any continuous flow as a game progresses.

Florida’s defense wasn’t much better, giving up over 500 yards and never establishing the LOS.  The run defense again was gashed for multiple big plays, there was rarely any pass rush of note, and the secondary blew assignments, tackled poorly, and again showed an alarming lack of ball-awareness when given opportunities to defend the pass.  Other than that – “nothing to see here……move along, please”.  The defense never had any control of the game, and only a goal-line stand that held the Bulldogs to a FG on their opening possession stemmed the tide of their troubles.  Georgia ran and passed at will, rolling up over 500 yards of offense.  The Gators never really pressured Carson Beck, allowing him all the time he needed to pick apart a shaky Florida secondary.  It’s painfully obvious at this point that Napier needs to completely scrap the Patrick Toney defense he kept from the 2022 season, as it simply doesn’t work against legit SEC and Top 25 competition.  Princely Umanmielen was one of the precious few defenders that played well, playing perhaps his best game of the season from the Buck position.  To add injury to insult, Shemar James incurred an injury in pre-game warmups on the freshly resodded field.  He put a brace on his knee and gave it his best effort until limping off of the field in the second half with what turned out to be a season-ending injury – a dislocated kneecap requiring immediate surgery.   The LB and secondary play were both dreadful, as they allowed Georgia multiple chunk plays and never could play tight coverage.  This unit seems to be regressing as the season goes on, and must reverse it’s fortunes for the team to have a chance of success the rest of 2023.

Special teams again reared it’s ugly head, allowing a blocked punt due to a complete breakdown of blocking scheme, which just continued the momentum that Georgia had established in the 2nd quarter.  Just another in a LONG list of reasons Napier has to rethink his way of handling that unit.  It’s time for one voice in that room, and no more coaching-by-committee.  The “Gamechangers” were certainly that, all right.

Overall just a dispiriting effort and further proof there are still serious fundamental issues with both the coaching staff and the schemes being employed.  The team continued to play hard for 4 quarters, but not necessarily well, or smartly.  It will be a few more painful years before Florida approaches the level of talent it needs, and I can only hope that by then the coaching issues are resolved as well. 

The Gators return home for the first time in 4 weeks for a must-win game against Arkansas.  The Razorbacks come into this game off a bye week, which was serendipitous for them given how their season hit rock-bottom in their Homecoming loss to Mississippi St.  They fired their OC after a horrific 7-3 losing performance that had the home fans booing them off the field.  They were fortunate to have the extra time to try and turn things around.  What’s strange is that they have played well in a lot of close losses against one of the toughest schedules in the country, yet come inot this game on a 6-game losing streak.  Head Coach Sam Pittman always has his team ready to play for 60 minutes and to play hard – they just haven’t played well on offense.

The Razorback offense is led by QB KJ Jefferson, a huge guy who is a load to bring down.  That being said, he’s not that elusive of a runner and struggles mightily to complete passes when forced to move in the pocket.  Despite Pittman being one of the best O-line coaches in the nation, their running game has been abysmal, averaging only 109 yards per game and forcing Jefferson into too many must-pass scenarios.  Of course, South Carolina was doing even worse, and the Gator defense then made them look great.  In fact, the Gator defense is allowing well over 400 yards per game against it’s SEC opponents, and that gives me pause as to how effective they can be the rest of the season.  Arkansas’ main RB is AJ Green, who is averaging 6 yards per carry, but has only 42 attempts.  Theor best RB from 2022 – Rocket Sanders – may be back this week in limited action.  Jefferson is the main ball carrier by default – one of the reasons their OC was let go in-season.  Their top WR is Andrew Armstrong, who’s 42 catches is more than double the total of anyone else.  Normally it would be obvious how to defend and stop this offense – keep Jefferson in the pocket, simply get a stalemate at the LOS, and concentrate the pass coverage on Armstrong.  But with the firing of the OC and the week off, I would not be surprised to see enough wrinkles in the offense that allow the Hogs to keep this game close into the 4th quarter, like most of their games.  The loss of Shemar James creates a huge hole for the Gator defense that I’m afraid they can’t adequately fill.  Mannie Nunnery and true freshman Jaden Robinson will have to somehow cover for the loss, likely in situational roles.  The entire defense has to show up and play inspired football.

Florida’s offense will need to find balance, and will be tested by a good Razorback defense that has managed to hold up well despite having to repeatedly cover for the inept offense.  Since the O-line is such a mess right now in pass-protection, it looks like we may see a reversion back to the conservative, short passing game, and attempting to establish a more consistent running game to keep the struggling defense off the field.  Not the best situation at this point, but it may be the only option to get a win this week.  RBs Trevor Etienne and Montell Johnson looked good against Georgia, and will need to be leaders this week.  Ricky Pearsall along with Wilson again will be the main passing targets.  I’m hoping the TE position reappears after being basically ignored last week, to the detriment of the offense.

Once again, another massive game for Napier and the Gators, who need this win to become bowl-eligible.  The remainder of the schedule after this week features 3 teams in the Top 15 of the BCS rankings, the next two being on the road.  If the Gators lose this one, most if not all of any momentum and positive vibes created in the first half of the season are lost, and the possibility of a losing record is suddenly staring the team in the face.  No doubt they will be feeling extra pressure this week, and that may not bode well for the performance of such a young team.  I’m afraid this one might come down to the last possession of the game, and neither the Florida offense or defense gives me comfort in that scenario.

Prediction:

Florida 23

Arkansas 20

Florida now enters the difficult part of it’s schedule, starting with the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville.  The last 5 games include 4 Top 20 and 2 Top 5 opponents.  We’re about to see how much this team has either truly improved so far to get to a 5-2 record and within 1 win of becoming bowl-eligible, or if it’s more fool’s gold earned by piling up wins against mostly weaker teams.

This week’s game will be a major challenge, as Georgia comes in playing it’s best football after some struggles early in the season.  The Bulldogs are led by QB Carson Beck, who, while not flashy, has put together a very good season as a first-year starter by playing efficiently and not turning the ball over.  RB Daijun Edwards has come on strong the past month and has to to be slowed down considerably, or else it will be another long afternoon away from the Swamp for the Gator defense.  The run defense has been horrific lately, allowing too many easy running lanes combined with poor tackling.  The defensive staff really needs to get after the players to show more toughness and also play with better technique.  Brock Bowers, UGA’s All-American TE, is out after ankle surgery, which will keep him out for at least a month.  He’s one of the best playmakers in college football, and will be missed by Georgia’s offense.  However, Oscar Delp is a more than capable replacement, and the Gator defense has no reason to relax.  WRs Dominic Lovett (a transfer from Missouri) and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint are excellent players, and the secondary needs to do a much better job of limiting long completions.  Georgia’s offense isn’t as explosive as the previous 2 seasons and will miss Bowers to an extent, but still has a physical O-line and enough talent at the skill positions to be dangerous.

Florida’s offense will face it’s toughest challenge of the season this week.  Georgia again has an excellent defense, despite the loss of more than a dozen players to the NFL over the past 2 drafts.  This group may not have the uber-elite playmakers of recent vintage, but still plays tough, physical football and tackles well.  The Gator O-line has to somehow get enough stalemates at the LOS to allow it’s skill players enough chances to make plays in space and also keep Graham Mertz upright, or this one will get ugly.  Mertz has taken way too much punishment the past few games, and won’t last the season if it continues.  Here’s hoping the off week helps get Kingsley Eguakun back at center and that the rotations at the other positions are finally settled.  I’m not expecting the running game to have consistent success the entire game, but it must generate some first downs to provide some balance and give the passing game a fair chance.  It will be very interesting to see if Billy Napier continues with the game plan employed at South Carolina that utilizes the entire field and plays aggressively, or if he goes back into a shell with risk-averse playcalling.  This team’s best chance is for the offense to stay aggressive the rest of the season, no matter the outcome.  

Special teams almost always contribute to an upset win, and Florida’s group hopefully finds a way to make a big play or two in the return game to help.  After Trevor Etienne made such an impact on kickoff returns the second half of last season, the return game has been mostly absent in 2023.  Trey Smack has been terrific as the FG kicker since taking over in the Tennessee game, and he’ll need to continue to take advantage of every opportunity he’s given.  Georgia has it’s own good placekicker in Peyton Woodring, and Mehki Mews is one of the best kick returners in the SEC.  The Gator coverage units have been very good so far, and that will have to continue – this team isn’t good enough to overcome any serious lapses in coverage leading to easy scores by the Bulldogs.

This game will be used as a measuring stick of whether Napier’s program is showing real improvement in year 2.  It may still end up as a loss, and perhaps the score isn’t terribly close, but how all 3 phases of the game look could be crucial to his long-term rebuilding project……and also to recruits.  He has an excellent recruiting class lined up right now, but it will be hard to keep it together if the next 5 games aren’t at least competitive.

There’s always a chance for an upset in a rivalry game, but it will take Florida’s best effort combined with some mistakes from Georgia for that to happen.  The Gators likely can’t come from behind against the Bulldogs, so they’ll have to find a way to get an early lead and try to hold on.  As of right now, Florida is likely still too young and lacks the physicality and depth necessary to make it happen.

Prediction:

Georgia 35

Florida 17

In just another example of proof a Multiverse exists, Florida actually exhibited an offense that looked like it came from the 21st century and came away with a thrilling 41-39 win at South Carolina.  I can only hope Billy Napier finally has had an epiphany of sorts and realized he wouldn’t be long for his current job unless he ditched his ultra risk-averse philosophy and allowed his offense to play aggressively for an entire game.

The Gator offense was a revelation, consistently throwing the ball to all levels of the field and challenging the defense to cover in space.  And, not surprisingly, they couldn’t, and Florida’s playmakers could actually make plays in 1-on-1 matchups.  It appears that some Miracle-Gro was applied to the route shrub and it became a tree – for at least one game.  Ricky Pearsall had a huge game with some clutch catches and the game-winning TD, Kahliel Jackson had a huge reception and got his own TD later in the same 2nd-quarter drive, and Eugene Wilson made some great runs on jet sweeps and also had the key reception from the deflection off of Pearsall’s hands on the winning drive.  TE Arlis Boardingham again came up big, catching a TD to close the score to 37-34, and saving the game with his 4th-down reception and run to keep that last drive alive.  Even TE Hayden Hansen had a few 1st-down receptions and the 2-point conversion catch.  When Florida did run the ball, Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne combined for over 100 yards, providing the balance needed with such a pass-heavy attack.  All this despite Graham Mertz getting punished behind a shaky O-line.  Mertz has definitely shown he’s tough……and been forced to way too often.  The OL have to improve if he’s to survive the rest of the season, and give the Gators any hope of winning some games.

Florida’s defense, sadly, was as bad as the offense was good.  I don’t know what’s happened to the run defense recently, but they have been gashed repeatedly and the tackling has been abysmal.  I mean, looking like 2022 all over again.  I was incredibly frustrated that DC Austin Armstrong didn’t employ a spy against Carolina QB Spencer Rattler, and it almost cost the Gators the game.  Rattler continually extended drives by running for first downs and extending drives.  This kind of defense has to be addressed in the off week – at all 3 levels – including some possible schematic changes.  The D-line played a little better than the numbers suggest, as they were constantly held by the Lamecock OL.  They were able to get occasional penetration into the backfield and some pressure on Rattler, but there usually was no LB to clean things up where there should have been.  It’s pretty much Shemar James and a cast of thousands at LB right now, which is a disappointment.  The secondary didn’t do itself any favors, either, allowing too many easy catches and yards after the catch as well.  The tackling by the back seven was horrific – both the technique and effort were sorely lacking.  To their credit, the defense did hold up on Carolina’s final 2 possessions, getting pressure on the QB and making the game-sealing interception.  This group is regressing, though, and has to right the ship.

Props again to Trey Smack, who made 4 of 5 FG attempts, including a 54-yarder to close out the first half and give the Gators a 24-21 lead.  His emergence has filled what was a huge deficiency and helped steady the special teams overall.  Every one of his made kicks was needed, and he’ll be relied upon again with the upcoming schedule.

This was a massive win for Napier and the entire program.  Yes, the opponent wasn’t great, but Carolina was coming off of a bye week, made some serious personnel changes that hadn’t been seen on film, and have played pretty well against other good opponents.  I can only hope Napier uses the same aggressive approach with the offense the rest of the way, no matter the results.  The balance of the schedule is much more difficult, with 4 Top 10 and 2 Top 5 opponents left to play.  If you’re gonna go to battle against those kinds of teams, go in with everything you have and give your team it’s best chance.  This win will provide a much-needed shot of confidence to the players.  They’ll need the off-week, as many guys have been playing hurt for weeks due to the lack of both quality depth and experience on the roster.  I’ll be back next week with my preview of Florida vs. the #1 Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville.

Florida got a much-needed bounceback win, handling Vanderbilt 38-14 on Homecoming at the Swamp.  The Gators were never really challenged, as both the offense and defense looked much sharper.  That being said, I can’t get too excited, given the struggles of the Commodores this season.

The offense was led by RB Montrell Johnson, who racked up well over 100 yards and looked the best he has all season – maybe he’s finally getting healthy after an inconsistent month of September.  Graham Mertz was again efficient, but the passing game is still lacking any consistency beyond 5 yards past the LOS.  The biggest development was the emergence of TE Arlis Boardingham, with 99 yards on 7 catches plus 2 TDs.  Here’s hoping there’s finally a TE that can be a consistent receiving threat to help Mertz behind a shaky O-line.  Speaking of which, the O-line held up pretty well despite the absence of LT Austin Barber and C Kingsley Eguakun, but they were matched up against a weak Vandy front seven.  Finally, it was good to see both Ricky Pearsall and Tre Wilson get into the end zone on jet sweeps, since precious few big plays come from the passing game.

The Gator defense did well enough, controlling the Commodore running game and forcing them to pass more often than they’re comfortable with.  However, there were still some breakdowns in coverage, allowing 2 long completions during the game, and an easy TD to close the score within 2 TDs in the 3rd quarter.  The pass rush is still inconsistent and must improve going forward – it has been a disappointment this season.  There were some interesting personnel developments, with LBs Trey Wingo and Teradja Mitchell getting extended looks in the second half.  That’s good for depth, as it will be all hands on deck going forward the rest of the season with the difficult part of the schedule coming up.

It’s now on the road again, this time to Columbia to face South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are 2-3 and coming off of their bye week, which they needed after a very tough start to their schedule, including games away from home against North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee.  They lost all of those, but were at least competitive into the second half, something the Gators have not been away from the Swamp since last October with the one exception being at Florida St.  I don’t believe anyone will buy into any fool’s gold after the Vanderbilt win – it’s time for Billy Napier and his staff to put a competitive team on the field in a road game.

For the Gators to have any chance of winning, the offense must step up by playing faster and using more of the field to make the defense work harder.  It’s been too easy for defenses to play close to the LOS and squeeze what little space there is in Napier’s scheme.  It’s time for a few more deep shots, even as those lower-percentage throws seem to be anathema to Napier’s philosophy of extreme risk-aversion.  Of course, the running game has to be there for balance, and here’s hoping some of the injured linemen are available this week.  I’m hoping RB Trevor Etienne returns this week to give the Gators one of their biggest weapons.  South Carolina’s defense is allowing over 450 yards a game, and Florida somehow needs to take advantage of those struggles and keep them off-balance.  WIth Boardingham and Etienne to go along with Johnson, Pearsall, and Wilson, there are enough weapons for Mertz to exploit the Gamecock defense……if he’s given enough protection and the game plan to do so.

The Gator defense needs to reclaim some honor from it’s dreadful showing in getting manhandled at Kentucky.  South Carolina has had talent and injury issues along it’s O-line, even starting a true freshman at LT.  Their running game has suffered as a result, averaging only 87 yards per game, and they have had to rely on the legs and playmaking ability of QB Spencer Rattler to give them any chance for victory.  He has played well to date, and their passing game challenges defenses downfield.  They are averaging over 300 yards per game through the air, led by WR Xavier Legette.  The Gator secondary has to tighten up this week, at least control Legette to prevent big plays, and force Rattler to throw into tighter windows, where he is prone to making some mistakes.  Cornerback Jason Marshall needs to emerge from his funk in 2023 and start playing like the preseason all-SEC candidate we saw his first 2 seasons.  Since the secondary will have a full plate, the Florida D-line has to get some push at the LOS to not allow the Gamecocks easy running lanes, and also stay disciplined when rushing the passer, forcing Rattler to stay in the pocket.  He is at his most dangerous when ad-libbing with his arm and legs.  Florida needs to show some real fire on defense this week and play with pride.

Gamecock head coach Shane Beamer is a master of special teams, and I’m sure will have his usual bag of tricks ready for this one.  Florida has to be alert all game long in any kicking game situation and not allow some kind of momentum-switching play that can swing a game away from them.  The Gator kickers have looked very good the last two games and need to execute at their best whenever called upon.

This is desperation time for South Carolina.  With the advantage of having an off-week to get healthy, along with the memory of the beatdown Florida put on them last season, they will have all the motivation they need and will come out firing.  Florida has the talent to stay in the game, but until the coaching staff proves they have the Gators motivated and focused like they should be on the road, I remain skeptical of their chances of winning away from home until they prove they can get it done.  This is a pivotal game for Napier to show Gator Nation he’s addressing these issues and actually show marked improvement in a road environment.

Prediction:

South Carolina 27

Florida 20

BIlly Napier’s Prevent Offense was once again successful, gifting Kentucky an easy 33-14 win in Lexington that wasn’t as close as the final score.  This game was over early, as the Gators looked flat and disinterested from the opening kickoff, falling behind 23-0 while getting manhandled and embarrassed by the Wildcats all day.  It’s one step forward and two or more steps back, as the staff once again failed to have the team ready for a road game.  I know there are a lot of young guys in the 2-deep roster, but this is getting ridiculous, and starting to give fans and the media a lot of ammunition to start taking shots at Napier for continued miserable play away from home.  Hearing comments from some of the players about how it was hard to get ready for an early kickoff, along with Napier saying he’ll remain the playcaller and that he’s confident in the offensive scheme, does not give me much confidence that things will improve the rest of 2023 unless some major changes are made.  This is starting to look and sound like some failures of previous coaching regimes – I like Napier, but being a nice guy doesn’t necessarily make for a good head coach.  Some self-awareness and humility might be in order – VERY soon.

Napier has to be honest with himself and realize this offense doesn’t work.  The route shrub, er, tree for the passing game does little more than put receivers too close to each other, and much too often too close to the line of scrimmage.  All of the motion is wasted, as that player (too often Ricky Pearsall) is usually left at the sideline with nowhere to go.  Too many running plays on 3rd-and-long.  Too many pass routes bunching receivers, allowing the defense easy coverage in a small space.  80+% of passes thrown either behind the line of scrimmage or within 5 yards of it, with precious little use of the middle of the field or deep routes.  This kind of offensive ineptitude has led to the firing of previous coaches across the country, not just at Florida, and Napier is starting to dig his own coaching grave.  Something has to change now, even if that means recusing himself from playcalling and letting someone like Russ Callaway and/or Billy Gonzales to have a crack at it.  Even with a struggling O-line, some schemes can be developed and implemented to help what talent you do have succeed.  Stubbornly sticking to a 1970s-style power game when it’s 2023 and the rules favor the passing game and spreading the field just won’t work against good or better teams consistently.  As for the execution of the offense to date – with respect to John McKay – I’m all for it.

I am not absolving the Gator defense of blame, as it did itself no favors with it’s worst showing of 2023, and looked horrifyingly like the 2022 version.  Way too many missed tackles, blown assignments, and playing soft against the run, allowing over 300 yards on the ground and making things way too easy for Kentucky’s offense.  The defenders took bad angles, displayed terrible tackling technique, and looked slow.  The few times they put Devin Leary into a passing situation they defended well, but it was way too infrequent.  There was also a dropped interception that could have been a pick-6.  The lack of energy on defense was alarming and troubling, and the defensive staff has to get this fixed.

To cap off a complete team failure, another special teams gaffe led directly to a Wildcat TD.  After actually forcing a punt deep in Kentucky territory and likely setting up the offense with great field position, a punt rusher illegally jumped over the center to try and block the kick.  This gave Kentucky a first down, and was immediately followed on the next play by a long TD run that essentially ended the game early.  Nice.

Florida returns to the Swamp this week for Homecoming, with Vanderbilt as the opponent.  The Commodores are back to their usual self, but there is some real angst taking hold regarding the Gator offense, and some key injuries for this game could make things even worse than usual.  LT Austin Barber is likely out, as is RB Trevor Etienne.  The O-line is regressing, and having to juggle the lineup doesn’t help.  Vanderbilt head coach Chuck Lea is a solid defensive coach, and will have a scheme ready – he just lacks the horses to usually maximize his plan.  If the O-line plays poorly and can’t get the running game going, I’m not confident that Graham Mertz – especially in this offense – can get the passing game going effectively enough to score a lot of points, if needed.  It’s been painfully easy for defenses to play against this offense the entire season except for the first 2 quarters against Tennessee.  Someone, maybe a senior like Pearsall, has to step up and make a big play or two.

Florida’s defense should hold up much better against Vandy’s rushing attack than last week (which isn’t saying much), but the Commodores have shown the ability to hit some deep throws this season, and I expect them to try a handful on Saturday.  The front seven needs to take last week’s embarrassment to heart and play with much more aggression and tackle better.  The pass rush has all but disappeared the past 2 games, and players like Princely Umanmielen have been somewhat disappointing so far in 2023.  Whether it’s the scheme or the players themselves, the Gators have to rediscover getting pressure on the QB.  I want to see tight coverage from the secondary all afternoon, and it’s time for the defense to generate some turnovers.

Gator Nation is coming home to celebrate this Saturday, not to fret over some kind of death struggle with Vanderbilt.  Unfortunately, I could easily see a game in doubt into the 4th quarter, unless there’s an epiphany from Napier and the offense.  Something tells me there’s a hangover from the Kentucky game throughout the first half, and this one could be too close for comfort.  I sure hope I’m wrong.

Prediction:

Florida 23

Vanderbilt 17

If you ever needed an example of an ugly win, this was it.  Florida stumbled to a 22-7 win over Charlotte, draining most of the energy out of the Swamp early on and sleepwalking to victory.  I expected a letdown from a young team, but this performance was even worse than I expected.  Not exactly what the fans were hoping for from Billy Napier and the Gators against an overmatched opponent.

The offense was horrid – 1 of 9 on 3rd-down conversions, settling for 5 FGs, multiple failures in the red zone, sloppy O-line play (yes, there were some suspensions for a half to deal with), and more unimaginative playcalling.  The passing offense is just……uninspiring, despite Graham Mertz being efficient in it.  Still precious few downfield attempts, and a stubborn refusal to use the middle of the field with regularity.  Even the running game was poor, with the O-line not getting any consistent push.  I’m starting to wonder about RB Montrell Johnson – even when he had some holes, he doesn’t look anything like he did last season.  He’s indecisive, gets tackled too easily, and is lacking the power he showed in 2022.  Trevor Etienne had too few touches.  The play of the game was Ricky Pearsall’s spectacular catch in the 1st quarter, leading to the only Gator touchdown of the night.  The only other offensive highlight of note I can recall was a TE actually catching a TD pass.  It looks like Arlis Boardingham may have become TE1, which is fine by me, as he actually looks like a receiving threat.

The defense did enough, but experienced some disinterested tackling in the 2nd half after Charlotte switched QBs and ran more zone reads.  There were some busts in the pass coverage as well, especially when the QB evaded the initial rush.  The interior D-line played well, but the edges were a little too soft against the run.  Again, the intensity level was way down from the previous week, but this is what you’re gonna get with so many young players and few upperclassmen starters.

FInally, the special teams overall had their best game of the season.  Good punt/kick coverage, and Trey Smack came through with a 5-5 night on FGs, including a 54-yarder.  All of his kickoffs went for touchbacks as well.  He’ll be counted upon heavily with Napiers’ conservative attack.  

The entire staff now has more work to do, with an important road test at Kentucky this week.  It’s sad to have to say that, but it’s what the Florida football program has become recently.  The first road game at Utah was a disastrous performance, and we’ll see if there is actual improvement playing away from the Swamp.

Kentucky comes in at 4-0, but has looked unimpressive in wins over some weak opponents.  New QB Devin Leary (a portal transfer from NC State) has been shaky at times, their running game has not been as strong as previous years, and their defense – head coach Mark Stoops’ specialty – has struggled as well.  The Gator defense has improved this year, and will have to carry the load again in this game.  The front seven looks like it can hold it’s own against a Wildcat O-line that has taken a step back from previous seasons.  Ray Davis is the leading rusher, but isn’t a breakaway threat.  The secondary is talented enough to control the UK WRs, led by Tayvion Robonson.  What I hope to see is DC Austin Armstrong’s continued aggression in dictating the tempo of the game, even if there’s an early hiccup.  Leary is completing less than 60% of his passes and already has racked up 5 interceptions – it’s time for the defense to generate some turnovers to help the offense.  I’m not counting on the Gator offense to do very much on the road until they prove they can, so the defense needs to carry the day.

Florida’s offense has fallen off dramatically it’s past 6 quarters of football.  The running game needs to be re-established, but Kentucky will follow the expected opponent’s game plan by crowding the box and daring the Gators to throw deeper routes and use the middle of the field more often.  I hope to see more passing on early downs to try and loosen up the secondary.  Reportedly, center Kingsley Equakun and WR Tre Wilson are going to play, which are huge additions.  Wilson has the juice to make plays in space and keep the defense more honest, opening up more opportunities for Pearsall and the other WRs.  Both will be playing through some painful injuries, but I hope they can tough it out for the entire game.  Etienne needs to be the lead RB right now and get more touches until Johnson proves he’s back to form.  The offense has to exhibit more efficiency when it reaches the red zone, or else I could see this one slipping away in the 4th quarter.

At the Swamp or even on a neutral field, I think Florida wins this game.  However, until I see a complete team effort and a more aggressive passing attack on the road, I’m afraid that somehow the Gators find a way to lose this one.  It’s a hugely important game for Napier to build upon his win over Tennessee, but there’s too much inconsistency in this young team yet where I’m comfortable predicting a win.  I could see this game staying close throughout, and Napier being comfortable with that and just trying to steal a win late.  It’s hard to believe Kentucky has won 2 straight and 3 out of 5 against Florida after the Gators reeled off 31 consecutive victories.  At some point Florida will have to prove itself on the road again in winnable conference games.

Prediction:

Kentucky 20

Florida 17

BIlly Napier got his biggest win to date at Florida with a 29-16 victory over Tennessee in front of a fantastic crowd at the Swamp.  The game followed his blueprint of a commanding running game, an efficient passing game that does just enough, and – finally – what appears to be a real defense led by competent coaching.  It’s also his first win against a Florida rival, which had been talked about all offseason and especially the week leading up to this game.

As exciting as it was to watch the Gators race out to a 26-7 halftime lead with 4 straight offensive TDs, it was even better to watch a young defense start to grow up and show what it can be capable of against a legitimate opponent.  The defense has been good all season, but this was by far it’s biggest challenge, and they rose to the occasion.  There were some hiccups with late substitutions against Tennessee’s fast-paced offense, but that’s to be expected.  The secondary allowed 3 long pass completions, but 2 of those were against true freshmen, and for the most part the DBs were allowed to cover closely and play a lot of man coverage.  What a breath of fresh air after watching the soft-as-charmin schemes of Todd Grantham and Patrick Toney the past 4 years.  The Florida D-line played very well, getting pressure on the QB and also controlling the Vol running game – the key to the win in my opinion.  Doing that forced Tennessee into too many must-pass downs, and I knew that Joe MIlton would not be able to deliver consistently.  The play of the Gator LBs was also fun to watch – they were able to showcase their speed in filling running lanes and also in coverage.  That is a tough offense for LBs to play against, and the young guys, led by Shemar James and Scooby Williams, held up against the pressure of the Vol quick-passing game.  There were a few missed tackles in space, but that’s going to happen against the talent Tennessee has on offense, and can be excused.  Overall, just an excellent effort for 60 minutes, and (hopefully) something to build upon going forward this season.

Florida actually showed life on offense in the 1st half.  Trevor Etienne was spectacular, racking up over 100 of his total of 172 rushing yards, including a long TD run in response to Tennessee taking a 7-0 lead and getting the crowd back into the game and energizing the entire team.  Montrell Johnson did not look his usual self and had limited touches, but capitalized with two nifty cutback runs for scores – one on a running play and one on a screen pass from Graham Mertz.  Mertz was terrific in the 1st half, going 17-20 and keeping the offense moving with some clutch 3rd-down completions.  Tre Wilson was a revelation at WR, being leaned on heavily in the 1st quarter on both jet sweeps and getting some key first down receptions, until unfortunately leaving with a bruised collarbone.  What was disturbing was that, after he left, it seemed much of the Gator passing game did as well, as suddenly it reverted to painfully conservative short throws, too often short of the sticks and not utilizing the middle of the field.  Napier admitted after the game he was too conservative the entire 2nd half, but I’ve seen that happen a little too often with him, and am afraid it’s more his comfort zone and will come back to bite him unless he learns to stay more aggressive.  It was hard watching the defense repeatedly being run back out after a 3-and-out, but they responded.

Overall this was quite the improvement from the troubles at Utah to start the season.  The coaching staff gets credit for having the team focused on the job at hand and cleaning up mistakes and penalties.  The “Gamechangers”, however, remain a huge question mark.  Adam Mihalek simply lost his composure, missing an easy FG and an extra point badly.  He looked lost coming off the field, his confidence completely shot.  Napier was forced to let Trey Smack handle the placekicking after the misses, and fortunately he delivered.  I have to believe he will be doing all of the kicking for the foreseeable future.  Jeremy Crawshaw punted adequately, but had another shank that gave Tennessee excellent field position for their final drive, which the Gator defense was able to eventually stop.  He has to become more consistent.

Finally, I have to address Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel and his ridiculous time out at the end of the game.  All he did was incite an ugly finish that got 4 players suspended for the 1st half of their next game, including 3 Gator O-linemen, which was a ridiculous ruling from the SEC office.  Then, he doubled down in his post-game press conference with a weak response to questions, while smacking on chewing gum and being dressed like a traffic cone.  He comes out of this looking like a bum, with Napier being too nice of a guy to call him out for it.  Methinks Steve Spurrier or Urban Meyer certainly wouldn’t have let it go that easily.

Florida concludes it’s 3 game home stand against the Charlotte 49ers.  Charlotte should present more of a challenge than McNeese St., but is still overmatched.  The Niners are mostly a running team, and assuredly will try to keep the game respectable early.  They should be helped on defense by the suspensions along the Gator O-line for the 1st half of the game.  This could reduce the effectiveness and efficiency of Florida’s offense for a while, but it will also present an opportunity for some backups and younger players to show their potential for future games.  The suspensions, along with Mertz playing with an injured hand and the loss of Wilson for potentially a few weeks, could make this a boring, run-heavy affair that may not appease the fans in the stands or watching at home.  The Gators will still win this one, but it could be an ugly, sloppy game with Napier just trying to protect his team from any further injuries prior to the upcoming road game at Kentucky.  I do expect a bit of a letdown from such a young team, but the staff needs to show better in getting the team ready after a big game, failing badly in doing so last season.

Prediction:

Florida 38

Charlotte 10

Florida enjoyed the closest thing to an off week Saturday night, beating an outmanned McNeese St. team that was likely one of the worst teams to come to the Swamp in decades.  The Gators were able to play many young guys early and often, emptying the bench in the second half and fortunately avoiding any injuries of note.

Coach Napier did what I expected – running the ball early and often for reps in preparation for the schedule to come.  There was nothing of note put on film for Tennessee to look at – the offense made vanilla look exotic.   There was more tempo between plays, which I can only hope continues, but something tells me it won’t against better opponents until Napier proves he’s willing.  With the new clock rules having a running clock until the last few minutes of each half, there is less time than ever to run plays, so an offense needs to pick up the pace in order to get as many possessions as possible.  The Gator defense was unchallenged all night, and only allowed 112 total yards.  I wish there was more of substance to take away from their performance, but MSU was truly awful.  Their only score came after a turnover by Florida’s bench players inside the Gator 20-yard line with a few minutes left.

Things are going to get real this Saturday night, with the SEC opener against Tennessee at the Swamp.  After the sloppy and disjointed loss at Utah in the opener, Gator Nation needs to see a solid effort from both the players and coaching staff this week.  The Vols come in ranked in the Top 10, but that’s more based on last year’s results, as they have not looked particularly good beating Virginia and Austin Peay.  Still, their fast-break offense will be a huge challenge for Florida’s young and inexperienced defense to handle, even at home.

Tennessee is riding with Joe Milton at QB, and he has looked pedestrian at times in place of last year’s starter, Hendon Hooker.  As much attention is given to the Vol’s tempo on offense and passing game, it’s their running game which has to be contained in order for the Gators to win.  If Florida can force Milton into obvious passing situations, he has shown he will struggle to complete a high percentage of throws and also be subject to sacks and turnovers.  He is not comfortable handling pressure in the backfield, and this is priority one for the Gators.  Tennessee has two good RBs in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small -neither of which are terribly big but both are quick, slashing runners.  It’s incumbent on Florida’s front seven to stay disciplined in both filling the running lanes with the LBs and setting the edge with the DEs.  Ramel Keyton, Squirrel White, and Bru McCoy make up a decent WR corps, but nothing the Gator secondary can’t handle with any help from the pass rush.  The Gator LBs will have to be aware and on point in covering the RBs out of the backfield, though – something that has been a struggle for years now.  Players like DLs Chris McClellan and Caleb Banks, LBs Princely Umanmielen and Shemar James, and DBs Jason Marshall, Jaydon Hill, and Jordan Castell all have to play well and lead the defense in it’s biggest challenge of the season to date.

Until something changes, I expect more ball-control pace for the Florida offense, trying to get the running game going enough to keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline and shortening the game by running clock.  And I also expect the Vols to employ what every Gator opponent on defense will – stacking the box until the Gators can prove they can win with their passing game.  While I’m hopeful the running game will show better than against Utah (that’s not saying much), Graham Mertz and the receivers have to step up and make some big plays.  Tennessee’s defense is decent but nothing special – can the Gators show they’re good enough to take advantage of passing opportunities?  Just another question that remains unanswered until this game is over.  I hope they feed Ricky Pearsall plenty of targets, and also get Eugene Wilson on the edge with some jet sweeps and quick passes to let him work in space.  What I don’t want to see are continued 2 TE sets, as none have shown they can threaten as receivers, and this allows the defense to crowd the line of scrimmage and short-to-intermediate passing zones.

This is a massive game for Napier’s perception – not just from Gator Nation, but from the entire country.  Year one ended badly, year two started badly, and the SEC is relentless in exposing problems.  Florida must show it can play better against legitimate competition, despite all of the youth and inexperience on the roster.  This roster is almost completely Napier’s now, and it’s time to see improvement and better in-game coaching/playcalling/adjustments.  Unfortunately, I’m afraid that the tempo of Tennessee’s offense causes just enough problems for the young Gator defense that they are able to score enough to win at the Swamp, even if I’m not sold on their QB or defense.

Prediction: Tennessee 31 Florida 24

In a shockingly mismanaged effort that I had the displeasure of watching in person, Florida lost a winnable game at Utah, and Billy Napier again provided the opportunity for the critics to have a field day.  I don’t want to hear about this being a road game at a ranked opponent in a hostile environment.  It was not that loud nor intimating a venue, and Utah was missing many key players and didn’t play that well, either.  This was just another poorly-coached effort and another example of a Napier offense that has no sense of urgency regarding the score or the time remaining.  Too many penalties at critical junctures – especially two illegal-formation penalties that ended drives into the red zone – were unacceptable.

Regarding the offense, it showed why I was concerned coming into 2023.  The running game was gutted by not just poor O-line play, but also the loss of Anthony Richardson to the NFL.  His running and big-play ability bailed out the OL many times last season, and Graham Mertz simply won’t be able to do the same.  There were no lanes for either Montrell Johnson or Trevor Etienne to exploit, and they were repeatedly stuffed.  This forced Mertz into passing much more often than expected, and he actually played better than I hoped.  The O-line and Napier’s playcalling did him no favors, and he took a beating all night with 5 sacks and other hits.  The lack of any running game made Florida one-dimensional, and the numbingly-slow tempo – a hallmark of Napier’s offense at Florida to date – precluded any real chance of a late comeback.  The lack of urgency in speeding things up to give the offense more snaps and more opportunities displays a stubbornness and lack of awareness in Napier that is simply not SEC-quality coordination.  In addition, when Florida actually employed 4- and 5-WR sets instead of the wasteful bunch sets with 2 or 3 TEs, they were able to generate some big plays and move the ball……but Napier refused to stick with it.  Ricky Pearsall made some big plays when fed the ball in the second half, and some of the young receivers like Marcus Burke and Eugene Wilson showed their speed and elusiveness with some chunk plays.  Too many pass attempts are being wasted on a TE group that simply lacks speed and big-play capability, not to mention their poor blocking performance.  Will Napier make some significant changes to help clean up this mess?  I’m not so sure, as he appears to be steadfast about being the playcaller.  His comments about needing to “keep focusing on the running game” aren’t confidence-inspiring.

The Gator defense did not play a great game, but well enough to win.  The lack of a pass rush was disappointing – Princely Umanmielen did nothing of note, while the blitz packages were too reminiscent of the Grantham and Toney defenses.  The interior D-line did look improved, as they did not allow Utah to run consistently well between the tackles.  The lack of attention to Utah’s backup QB being only effective as a runner was stunning, as Nick Johnson was able to convert just enough plays to keep some drives alive that never should have happened.  Florida also had many true freshmen getting key reps throughout the game, and many of them showed flashes of promise and made some big plays.  Safeties Jordan Castell and Miguel Mitchell tackled well, LB T.J. Searcy was all over the field, and DE Kelby Collins got some push into the backfield.  LB Shemar James was the star, with 15 tackles and displaying real speed in covering ground sideline-to-sideline.  Despite all of these issues, including no help from the offense and given some poor field position a few times, they allowed only 270 yards of total offense, including the 73-yard bomb for a TD on the first scrimmage play for Utah.  I will not blame them for giving up an 11-yard TD drive after an interception, and they had already made a key stop late in the first half before the “Two #3s” call allowed Utah to continue a drive for a late TD and a 17-3 halftime lead that changed the complexion of the game.

The “Gamechangers” were an embarrassment……again.  A missed 30-yard FG, a shanked punt leading to a short field for a Utah TD drive, and having 8 men on defense for a FG attempt were bad enough.  But the one that will never be forgotten was “Two #3s on the field for the defense.  First down, Utah.”.  What a debacle – just another example that Napier’s special teams-by-committee coaching approach is a failure.  Assign one voice to the room, and don’t waste 2 coaching slots on the O-line.  The kickoff and punt coverage teams played very well, but the loss of easy points and momentum at key times were too much to overcome for a young defense and sluggish offense.  Wilson made a bad decision fielding a punt inside his own 5-yard line, but that’s a mistake by a true freshman that will get corrected.  This group simply has to improve – now.

Florida now entertains McNeese St. for the home opener, in what can only be described as an uninspiring matchup at best.  Other than getting more reps for the young and inexperienced players, this is nothing more than a glorified scrimmage.  Very little can be gleaned from this kind of game, and I expect a lot of empty seats and a crowd that will be unhappy with anything but a large blowout victory – something that Napier’s teams have not shown the ability to do no matter the level of competition.  Hopefully this one is decided early, so fundamentals can be worked on with nothing of note to put on tape for Tennessee.  The main thing in a game like is……NO INJURIES.

Prediction: Florida 45 McNeese St. 7

Here we go.  Florida opens it’s 2023 season with a tough challenge on the road at Utah.  The Utes will have revenge on their minds after last year’s close 29-26 loss to the Gators at the Swamp, but there are serious extenuating circumstances surrounding both teams that make predicting who will win this game very difficult.

Utah’s QB situation is murky right now, and that’s being kind.  Cam Rising is coming off of an ACL injury in the Rose Bowl only 7 months ago, and has seen little practice time in fall camp.  He has not been cleared by doctors yet for any full contact, so there’s a real chance he doesn’t play, which is a big hit for them.  Freshman Brandon Rose came in and right away passed Bryson Barnes as QB2, but suffered his own knee injury a few weeks ago and is out.  That leaves Barnes as the presumptive starter, with hardly-used Nick Johnson as the backup.  Barnes saw some action late last season and in the Rose Bowl, but really didn’t show much.  IF……if Rising doesn’t play (and I think he will until the game starts and he’s in street clothes), then Florida will benefit.  Rising is a tough runner and very experienced player who makes that offense go, and his loss will be felt, no matter how well coached the Utes are by Kyle Whittingham and his staff.

If it’s Barnes, then expect a heavy dose of the running game led by Micah Bernard and Ja’Quindon Jackson.  Both are big backs that are tough to bring down behind a solid O-line.  Barnes can run effectively as well, but unless he can establish a passing game that shows it can threaten the Gator defense, they could struggle.  Utah usually relies on it’s TEs in the passing game, and I expect the same this season.  But even there they are hurt by the loss of Dalton Kincaid to the NFL, and Brant Kuithe is coming off of his own ACL injury last September.  I think he’ll play, and Florida has to slow him down and force Barnes to look for other receivers.  Utah does have one big concern other than Rising’s availability – they very well could be playing a true freshman at left tackle.

Of course, maybe none of Utah’s concerns at QB will matter unless the Gator defense can finally leave behind the stink of terrible play the past 3 seasons and can show significant improvement.  The D-line lost Gervon Dexter to the NFL, but Napier did well in the portal acquiring Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks to be immediate contributors at tackle along with Chris McClellan and Dez Watson.  Utah will always look to run the ball early and often, and the interior defense has to be stout.  If Rising doesn’t play, then I expect an even heavier reliance on the running game until the Gators show they can slow it down.  Florida lost it’s best run-stopping LB in Ventrell Miller to the NFL along with Amari Burney, so it’s time for Shemar James, Scooby Williams, Trey Wingo, and transfers Deuce Spurlock and Teradja Mitchell to step up against the run and also improve the pass coverage of the LB corps, which has struggled for years.  It appears new Defensive Coordinator Austin Armstrong will run a lot of 4-2-5 alignments, which means an extra defensive back – especially at the Star position – will be relied upon to help cover the Ute TEs.  Jason Marshall, Jalen Kimber, and Jaydon Hill are good enough to handle the Utah WRs, but the safety play of RJ Moten, Kamari Wilson, and Miguel Mitchell has much to prove.  This group has to show it can be in the right position, take proper angles, and tackle well when necessary.  There is little experience and continuity, and they can’t afford many miscommunications or blown assignments.

Florida comes into the opener with it’s own concerns at QB.  Graham Mertz has distanced himself from Jack MIller and Max Brown as the starter, and comes into his 4th year of college ball with 2 years of starting experience at Wisconsin.  However……his play there wasn’t great by any means, and he doesn’t approach what Anthony Richardson could do in the running game or to avoid sacks and generate big plays with his legs.  Mertz needs to play smart and manage the game – he has to prove he can complete passes in the short and intermediate zones to extend drives, throw with accuracy, and make the correct reads.  He’d better, as Billy Napier has thrown all of his eggs into the Mertz basket for 2023.  The Gators will undoubtedly rely on their running game again in 2023, led by RBs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne.  The O-line has been rebuilt after losing 3 starters, including All-American O’Cyrus Torrence.  The staff did a good job of filling those openings by acquiring Micah Mazzccua, Damien George, and Lyndell Hudson through the portal, to go along with returning starters Kingsley Eguakun at center and Austin Barber at left tackle.  There is better depth and some experience among the backups, which is a welcome change.  I expect the Utah defense to crowd the box to try and slow the run game and make Mertz prove he can hurt them throwing the ball.  That means a young and inexperienced receiving corps has to make some key plays.  Ricky Pearsall is the best of the group, but likely gets extra attention until others show they can make plays.  Some combination of Caleb Dougkas, Marcus Burke, and Ja’Quavion Fraziars need to prove they can get open and help the Gators move the ball through the air if Pearsall is the focus of the defensive secondary.  Perhaps one of the true freshmen – Aiden Mizell, Andy Jean, and Eugene Wilson – can surprise early, but that’s a big ask.

Florida’s special teams, er, “Gamechangers”, struggled often in 2022, and must show improvement.  The Gators will have little room for error against it’s better opponents, and need positive contributions from the kickers and returners.  Etienne is an excellent kickoff returner, and it looks like Pearsall will be the #1 punt returner.  It’s risky having two valuable skill players at those positions, but that’s what happens unless you have quality depth in the entire roster.  Jeremy Crawshaw will need to provide solid punting, and Adam Mihalek hopefully comes through when needed for any FGs.

This is a huge game for Napier and the Gators.  If they can pull off the upset win, or even lose a close game in which they show some balance on offense and an improved defense, that would go a long way in showing not just Gator Nation but themselves that progress is being made, and Napier’s long-term rebuild is on schedule.  Suffer an ugly loss filled with bad QB play and poor defense, and the criticism from outside will start immediately and only intensify.  I think Florida knows what it’s up against both on the field and regarding it’s perception nationally, and I expect a good performance and close game.  I just think the change at QB and this being a road game against a well-coached and experienced team are too much to overcome in a season opener.

Prediction:

Utah 24

Florida 20