Florida limps into Lexington coming off of 2 bad losses where the offense wasn’t competitive, and with a season on the brink.  The Gators have fallen so far since 2020 that they have lost 4 out of the last 5 games vs. Kentucky after winning 31 in a row from 1987-2017.  It’s just another embarrassing statistic that the football program has accumulated over the last 5+ seasons.

If the Gators are to have any chance of winning, somehow, some way, the offense has to wake up and carry it’s share of the load.  That starts with the O-line, which has been manhandled and exposed since the start of October.  OC Buster Faulkner and OL Coach Phil Trautwein must come up with a game plan that executes quick, decisive plays, and simplifies the blocking schemes and playbook.  That applies to whomever starts at QB, where both Trammel Jones and Aaron Philo have looked terrible save the upset win at Texas.  The guy that plays has to stop the bad turnovers – especially in the red zone – and inject some juice into the entire unit.  Faulkner is going to have to rely on the passing game more than he prefers, because every opponent loads up to stop the running game.  That means the WRs and TEs have to play much better than recently – not just getting open, but blocking as well.  Jaden Baugh has reverted to running east-west too often, and, quite frankly, Duke Clark looked better last week and perhaps needs more touches.  Kentucky’s defense is sound but not spectacular, and Florida has the skill players to expose some weaknesses.  DBs Ty Bryant and former Gator Jordan Castell are tied for the SEC lead with 4 interceptions each; LB Grant Godfrey is solid and leads the team in tackles, and DL Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace has 9 TFL and 6 sacks.  The Wildcats will not make too many mistakes, and force Florida to execute their plays and be efficient – neither of which have been accomplished recently.  It’s time for the Gators to show some pride and fight on offense instead of submitting another embarrassing performance.

Kentucky’s offense has been rejuvenated under new head coach Will Stein.  The overall numbers aren’t spectacular, but their execution has been steady and they have protected the football.  QB Kenny MInchey has been efficient with 14 TDs and only 2 ints. and has been clutch in the 4th quarter of close games.  RBs Jason Patterson and CJ Baxter are averaging 6 YPC, while the two main receiving targets are WR Kenny Darby and TE Willie Rodriguez, an all-SEC candidate.  Florida’s defense failed to stop the only 2 impact receivers for Oklahoma last week despite knowing who to focus on, and must do better against Darby and Rodriguez.  Minchey leans on those two heavily, and if the Gators can take them out of the equation for the most part they can get off the field more often and give their own offense more opportunities – which they’ll need.  DT Jeremiah McCloud returns from a 1-game suspension to bolster the interior, and the front seven will have to control the Wildcat running game and make UK one-dimensional.  DE Emmanuel Oyebadejo should be healthier this week, and he and Jayden Woods could make an impact rushing the QB.  DC Brad White slipped back into some soft play schemes last week, and it hurt the team.  He has to stay aggressive for 60 minutes, and not allow Darby and Rodriguez to have big games.  Stein is not afraid to roll the dice and go for it on 4th downs and wins instead of ties, so Florida will have to expect anything.

Florida has the kicking edge in special teams, but needs to generate a big play on a return or by blocking a kick.  With the offense struggling so badly, any way to steal some points is at a premium.

It’s been a miserable week for Jon Sumrall and the entire team and staff, listening to all of the criticism from everywhere, but it’s also their own fault.  It’s time to show some fortitude and pride and stand up this week, or else it will only get worse.  It will be a cold night game in Lexington, which doesn’t bode well for Florida, historically.  Again, it’s on the staff and players to pull themselves out of this rut, but are some players already checking out mentally?  That’s a sickness that can quickly run rampant inside a weak-minded roster.  Let’s see if the Gators show some fight.  Stealing a win would do wonders for team morale and hopefully spur a strong finish.  Kentucky’s overall stats are similar to Florida’s, so despite their 7-2 record they have not been dominant in any way.  In fact, 2 of their wins came in consecutive weeks when they converted a 2-point play on the last play of the game to win 35-34 over Missouri and LSU.  Unfortunately, as much as I hope for a win and believe it’s possible, I’m not predicting one.

Prediction:

Kentucky 34

Florida 17 

Hello Darkness my old friend……

……I’ve come to talk to you again.  Another inept offensive performance, another instance of watching the defense wear out after being overworked, another ugly home loss and disappointed Swamp crowd.  To his credit, I think the only person that saw through all of the early success and tried to temper the expectation of Gator Nation was Head Coach Jon Sumrall himself.  He warned everyone that the O-line was a mess, that the QBs were inexperienced, and that a LOT of work had to be done – over time – to rebuild the football program.  And, of course, the fan base got carried away by the big wins of September and now comes crashing back to earth like Charlie Brown after Lucy pulls the football away from him……again.

The Florida offense has epitomized this roller-coaster of a season, falling from Top 3 in the country after 4 games to a pitiful unit that can’t even do basic things well.  The same bad penalties and terrible turnovers continued against Oklahoma, allowing a mediocre Sooner team to look competent and possibly salvage it’s season by plodding to a 23-7 win that even their fans know was mostly handed to them.  Tramell Jones has had enough chances to show what he is, and it’s a poor passer who can’t read coverages and doesn’t protect the football.  Yes, he’s shown toughness playing through injuries, but it’s time to switch back to Aaron Philo to do something – anything – to change the fortunes of the offense.  Jaden Baugh never had a chance, and actually Duke Clark looked quicker and more decisive in his first action at RB in a month.  Baugh has reverted to the east-west running style that he exhibited too often previously, and – frankly – it looks like he’s made the mental decision to protect himself for the Draft.  The WRs can’t get open, which I believe is more an indictment of Buster Faulkner’s poor passing game scheme.  Dallas Wilson and Eric Singleton are too talented to be easily shut down, and the excuse of losing VB3 rings hollow – this is big-boy football, and injuries happen.  133 yards passing is disgraceful at any level, and is a bad look for the offensive staff.  The O-line was an embarrassment – again, and was pushed around all night.  Starting Caden Jones at RT is just another example of why the OL that Billy Napier and Rob Sale recruited during their miserable stay in Gainesville was a complete bust.  He immediately was called for 2 early penalties that killed the opening drive, and played poorly.  OL Coach Phil Trautwein has to perform a complete flush of this unit, and has to play his recruits and overpay for portal starters for 2027.  No consistency, and only 22 minutes time of possession – ridiculous.  There are things happening with both individual players and with the game plan that are unpleasant and uncomfortable to discuss, but I’ve already touched upon some here and will in MUCH more depth as soon as the season mercifully ends.  Oklahoma’s defense has some good talent and coaching, but Florida’s pitiful result is beyond the pale.  If Faulkner can’t adjust and also present a modern passing scheme, then he has to go.

Similar to last week, the Gator defense played well enough to win most games – especially against a Sooner offense that just fired it’s OC and had been dreadful all season.  No, the defense wasn’t perfect, especially early when DC Brad White for much of the first half got away from the aggressive style that had invigorated his unit recently.  That allowed QB John Mateer to actually look decent, which was hard to watch as he’s been a massive disappointment.  By the time White changed the scheme, it was already too late, as Oklahoma had 13 points, which, for this Gator offense, appears a mountain too big to climb.  The Sooners had 4 new starters along the O-line due to injuries and poor performance, and Florida’s front seven couldn’t – or wasn’t allowed to – generate consistent pressure after playing so well against Texas and Georgia.  This is one of the coaching issues I mentioned above that needs resolving.  From the sour grapes department, it didn’t help that the referees ignored DE Jayden Woods being repeatedly held all night.  The Gator defenders did what they could, but watching OU put together a 20(!)-play drive in the 4th quarter to score the TD that essentially ended the game at 20-7 was a bitter pill for those kids – and the fans – to swallow.  Incredibly, Oklahoma held the ball for almost 38 minutes – unacceptable, and unprofessional coaching.

It’s difficult to see anything getting significantly better the last 3 games.  Next up is a road trip to Kentucky to play an improved Wildcat team that has embarrassed Florida 4 of the past 5 years, and it may be more of the same unless Sumrall shakes up BOTH the roster AND some of the coaching schemes.  In my opinion it’s never too late to make some changes and swing for the fences when things are going badly, no matter how late it is in the season.  But not all – or enough – coaches are willing to do that.  We’ll see soon enough.

Florida comes back to The Swamp for the first time in 4 weeks with a critical matchup against Oklahoma.  Both teams are coming off of dispiriting losses and hoping to avoid a November swoon that would result in a mediocre season and a disgruntled fan base.  The Sooners have been especially disappointing, coming in at 4-4 and desperate to try and salvage anything from a season in which they were considered a solid Playoff contender.  The Gators are pretty much where most expected them to be at this point of the season, but the roller coaster ride has been especially wild and currently at a low after getting embarrassed by Georgia.

Let’s start with Florida’s offense, coming off of essentially a no-show in Atlanta.  From a questionable game plan to regression in QB play and the continuation of critical penalties, Buster Faulkner has to do something to better utilize the strengths of his players and also attack the middle of the field more.  Tramell Jones will get the start after relieving Aaron Philo last week after Philo self-destructed with a brutal interception and did nothing to move the team.  Jones is playing on a bad lag that will require offseason surgery, but is toughing it out.  Faulkner has to do a better job of emphasizing Jones’ capabilities and give the offense a chance to put together some scoring drives.  Admittedly his job is made more difficult by the injuries within the WR corps and the continued struggles of the O-line, but that’s what he’s paid the big money for – not the abomination of last week.  VB3 is out again this week, and it’s starting to look like he’s done for 2026.  Bailey Stockton continues to play well despite being banged up since the Ole Miss game.  Dallas Wilson somehow needs to push through his own bumps and bruises and start making impact plays.  Expect OU to continue what opponents have done since Florida’s initial stumble at Missouri – press the box, move the safeties closer, focus on stopping Jaden Baugh, and dare the QB to beat them.  The Sooner defense is solid and filled with talent, but also evidence of what a bad offense can do to any defense, as they are wearing down, incurring injuries, and starting to show large cracks under the pressure of trying to bail out the offense.  LB Owen Heinecke is the leading tackler with 64 stops and 7.5 TFL, DB Patrick Bowen is second with 41 tackles and 2 interceptions, DB Reggie Powers III often is around the LOS, racking up 5.5 TFL and 2 sacks, and DL David Stone has 3.5 TFL and 2 sacks.  As a team, Oklahoma has piled up 49 TFL and 23 sacks in 8 games, so you can expect them to get after the Florida O-line all night and force the Gators to execute and make plays.  Overall, a difficult matchup for the Gators that could turn into another ugly result.

The story for the Florida defense (recently) and Oklahoma offense is essentially the same as above.  The Sooner offense has been a mess most of the season, featuring an ineffective running game and getting sketchy play from QB John Mateer.  From a Heisman candidate in early 2025 to one of the lowest-rated QBs in the SEC in 2026, it’s been a long fall from grace for Mateer.  He has struggled reading defenses and turned the ball over too often since the beginning of October.  Get him off of his initial read, and he’ll bail out of the pocket and scramble.  RB Lloyd Avant has 79 carries and averages 4.4 YPC, but Mateer actually leads the team with 86 rushes – a bad sign.  The Sooners actually have proven weapons in WR Isaiah Sategna and TE Rocky Beers, and Florida’s defense has to minimize their production and force Mateer to look elsewhere.  The Sooner O-line has been beset by injuries as well, and the Gators need to take advantage of that by continuing their recent emphasis on an aggressive front seven that runs stunts and blitzes to pressure the QB and LOS.  Emmanuel Oyebadejo, Brendan Bett, Jayden Woods, and LJ McCray should be able to get pressure on the pocket to disrupt anything the Sooners try to run.  Having The Swamp crowd behind them certainly helps, and they may have to carry the day to secure a win.  Finally, OU Head Coach Brent Venables pulled the plug Sunday on OC Ben Arbuckle, who’s brief run was a disaster.  I hope that doesn’t provide a sudden spark to their offense, but anything’s possible.

Special teams will be an excellent matchup.  Sategna is a dangerous punt returner, and Tate Sandell is the returning Lou Groza Award winner and one of the better placekickers in the country.  With VB3 out again, it may be time to add punt return duties to kickoff returns for London Montgomery, who has provided some juice in the return game all season.  PK Patrick Durkin and P Alec Clark continue to be perhaps the best duo in the SEC.  In a game featuring two struggling offenses, a big special teams play may decide the outcome.

Just another game in the SEC meat grinder, and both teams desperately need to win.  I’m glad this is a home game for the Gators, as Oklahoma has many good players and could suddenly reverse course at Florida’s expense.  Win this one, and Jon Sumrall still has a shot at 8 or 9 wins.  Lose, and suddenly you’re 5-4 with a trip to Kentucky next week and little chance of even a decent bowl game – as if that means much anymore.  Which offense can make enough plays to win?  We’ll see Saturday night.

Prediction:

Florida 23

Oklahoma 20

It was a Happy Halloween for Georgia, as Florida passed out all the treats (4 turnovers, multiple major penalties) with a very disappointing and lackluster offensive performance in a 27-8 loss.

Those were the kindest adjectives I could come up with to describe the horror show that was the Gator offense, which took the holiday a little too seriously it seems.  Aaron Philo got the short hook in the 2nd quarter after looking completely lost and panicked, including throwing a terrible interception as he was falling down.  Tramell Jones then came in and provided a brief spark, but that ended with an interception on a catchable pass to Eric Singleton leading to a 10-0 Georgia lead.  Right before halftime came the coup-de-grace – a strip sack of Jones that was returned for a TD that made the score 24-0.  BOO indeed.  The second half wasn’t much better, including an ill-advised end zone pick to a Bulldog DB that inexplicably Jones didn’t see.  Good news, though – Florida’s scoring streak lives on……YAY!  A TD drive with 7 minutes left made the score 24-8, and Georgia tacked on a late FG to close out the scoring.  While both QBs had bad days, the O-line was as much a culprit.  There were critical holding penalties all afternoon, along with a false-start penalty on 3rd-and-1 that ended a 2nd quarter drive.  Georgia repeatedly got a push at the LOS, pressured the pocket while racking up 4 sacks, and ate up any runs or passes to the edges.  The Gators never established a consistent running game, with Jaden Baugh getting stuffed at or behind the LOS all afternoon.  Which leads me to some pointed criticism of Buster Faulkner’s game plan.  Why in the hell he continued to call those plays to the edge – both runs and passes – was baffling, as the Bulldogs have too much talent and speed in their front seven to have any real success doing it.  That, along with not attacking downfield more often in the passing game – the few times that the Gators actually made some positive plays – was frustrating to watch.  While I acknowledge that Georgia likely has the best defense Florida will face all season, this was by far the worst performance by the offense of the season – including the duds at Missouri and against South Carolina.  A complete and total failure across the board.

On the opposite side of the ball, Florida’s defense played it’s best game of the season.  It repeatedly rose up to stop Georgia through the first 3 quarters less the short fields allowed by the turnovers and fumble return for a TD.  It had to be extremely difficult to go back onto the field after watching the offense continually screw up, yet the defense fought gamely until they ran out of gas in the 4th quarter.  The D-line made some big plays, including a sack and deflected pass by Emmanuel Oyebadejo.  The secondary had mostly good pass coverage, and overall the defense played an aggressive scheme that DC Brad White seems to have finally figured out.  LB Miles Graham and safety Bryce Thornton made some big hits and flew around the field.  The defense held Georgia to only 318 total yards, 101 passing, and much of the 217 rushing yards came as the players tired in the second half.  I hope that this unit sees on tape how well it played and can keep up that same performance the last four games……because apparently it will be needed.

Jon Sumrall was visibly annoyed after the game, as he should be. He knows this isn’t good enough, and at least is honest enough to say it publicly.  He and his offensive staff have to coach up both QBs to play better.  Both likely will be needed, as each is playing through injury.  The O-line needs to bounce back in a big way, and stop the dumb penalties.  The WRs and TEs all have to do more to help the QBs, and block better for the running game.  It’s unfortunate to still have all of these glaring issues 8 games into the season, but that’s where the offense is – and isn’t – right now.

There are a few more meaningful games to be played, and an overall solid year can still be had if the team can improve and keep looking forward.  In all honesty, the win-loss record to date is close to where almost everyone predicted it would be.  Getting to 7 or more wins would be a marked improvement for the program – especially with what Slingblade left behind for Coach Sumrall to work with.  Lots of work to do this week in practice.

Florida returns from it’s bye week by being thrown right into the deep end, facing a tough Georgia team coming off of it’s own bye week and stewing after an ugly upset loss at home to Auburn.  This year’s game is at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, due to the renovations being made to EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.  I’m sure the Bulldog faithful are looking forward to this game being so much closer to Athens and also in-state.

If Florida is to have any chance at victory, it’s offense will have to find ways to move the ball and also score touchdowns against another terrific Georgia defense.  OC Buster Faulkner has experience against the Bulldogs, having coached against them the past few years while at Georgia Tech.  He’s had success against Kirby Smart, but that was with a big, tough QB that ran the ball better than he threw it, which always gives the Dawgs trouble.  The Gators do not have that type of QB, so we may see a similar game plan to the one employed at Texas – a conservative, grind-it-out scheme that uses safe, short throws and tries to get enough push for Jaden Baugh and the running game to generate first downs, control the clock, and shorten the game.  Perhaps Faulkner schemes in more QB runs than expected, throwing injury caution to the wind, but that’s a huge risk.  As much as I’d love to see a wide-open attack, the Florida O-line just isn’t good enough right now to stand up against Georgia’s front seven, which is among the best in the country.  Whether it’s Tramell Jones getting his second start or Aaron Philo returning from injury, either one will need to be quick and decisive in their reads and make accurate throws.  If they can’t do that, then it will be a long afternoon for the Gators, as they likely can’t hold down Georgia’s offense consistently.  The Florida WRs have to come up big in this game – here’s hoping the extra week of rest helps many of them heal up, including Dallas Wilson, Eric Singleton, and Vernell Brown III, who has been out for a month.

This will be the most talented and physical defense Florida plays this season, and even if the offense plays at peak efficiency it may not be enough unless they can score at least 24 points while also winning the time of possession battle.  Georgia is led by an elite LB corps that includes 3 of the team’s 4 leading tacklers – Raylen Wilson, Chris Cole, and Justin Williams.  Wilson and Cole have 6.5 sacks between them, and Cole will be a NFL 1st-round pick.  Their secondary is unique in that their DBs aren’t afraid to mix it up against the run and are tough and physical.  Safety Rasean Dinkins and DB KJ Boldin are all-SEC candidates, with Boldin being someone that Florida badly wanted out of high school.  DL Jordan Hall and Nnamdi Ogboko are stout interior linemen that are hard to move and allow the LBs to clean things up.  At a minimum this matchup will be a measuring stick for Jon Sumrall and his offensive staff to evaluate where they need to eventually get to become a true title contender – especially up front.

The Florida defense will have it’s hands full against a Georgia offense that is averaging 470 yards per game – 272 passing and 198 rushing.  QB Gunner Stockton leads the SEC in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating.  Many of his throws are quick outs or screens, with occasional seam routes to his TEs and WRs.  There is no true #1 target – 4 WRs, 2 RBs, and 1 TE all have between 10 and 20 catches.  The Gators can’t afford to play any soft coverage, or they will die from the proverbial thousand cuts.  This will be a test of man coverage and open-field tackling – the Bulldogs thrive and yards after the catch.  Georgia’s running game is solid as usual, led by RBs Dwight Phillips, Chauncey Bowens, and Nate Frazier.  Bowens and Phillips are also targets in the short passing game.  Every level of Florida’s defense will be tested and have to have big games in order to slow the Bulldogs down enough to have a chance for the upset.  I hope to see a continuation of the aggressive, attacking scheme for the front seven deployed at Texas, to try and disrupt the LOS and pressure Stockton.  That’s preferable to sitting back and allowing Georgia to dictate the action and control the clock.

Both teams come in with excellent special teams, so I don’t see any real advantage there.  Of course, Florida could help itself out with a big kick return, while the coverage unit needs to tighten up after allowing a punt return TD at Texas.  We’ll see if VB3 is ready to play – he could be a difference-maker in the return game.

The SEC conference schedule has already proven this year to be more volatile than perhaps ever, with many solid favorites getting upset – both on the road and at home. That alone shows that Florida has a chance to pull off a major upset this week, but the game still must be played.  Coach Sumrall should have his team ready after a much-needed bye week.  The SEC slate is such a grind and physically demanding, and the Gators were pretty beaten up even before winning at Texas – especially the WR room.  There will be a solid and loud contingent of Gator fans in Atlanta, with myself among them, rooting for the upset.  Realistically it will be a tall task to accomplish, but that’s why they play the games – especially rivalry games – right?

Prediction:

Georgia 31

Florida 17

Chaos Theory

What a crazy week – not just in the SEC, but across the country.  5 of the Top 7 teams in the country lost, while 2 others were in death struggles.  Of course, the day was led off by Florida rising from the dead and upsetting Texas 27-24 in Austin.  Few – including me – thought it would happen, but I’m so happy to be wrong.  At least I was there in person to watch the Gators come back from a 17-3 deficit to stun the Longhorns and  – for now – quiet some of the noise from both the media and fan base as to where the season was heading.

For most of the first half, it was a continuation of the poor play and uninspired effort that marked the previous two bad losses.  The offense struggled under the leadership of QB Tramell Jones, who got the start due to a shoulder injury sustained by Aaron Philo the week before.  The Gators looked listless while struggling to establish the running game – again – and were unable to sustain any drive until the end of the first half.  It wasn’t pretty, but somehow Florida put together a TD drive in the last 4 minutes of the half, chipping away at a stout Longhorn defense with short completions and finally generating a semblance of a running game with Jaden Baugh.  Jones extended the drive with perhaps the most important play of the season to date – a completion to Dallas Wilson to convert a 4th-and-12 and inject some life into the offensive players.  That led to a TD pass to TE Lacota Dippre to cut the lead to 17-10 at halftime.  The offense then came out and drove for the tying touchdown on the opening possession of the second half, coming on another TD reception by Dippre.  It was great to see the TE utilized in the passing game again after disappearing during the two losses.  That completely turned the momentum around and gave the entire team the belief they were in the game and capable of winning.  From there to the end of the game, Florida dominated time of possession, finishing with 37 minutes, running 81 plays, and smartly executing OC Buster Faulkner’s conservative game plan.  Jones completed 22 passes for only 155 yards, but did just enough through the air to provide some balance to the offensive attack.  Most importantly – he threw no interceptions on his 35 attempts.  Faulkner did unveil some unusual formations and misdirection plays that confused Texas and helped Florida finish 8-18 on 3rd-down conversions after starting 0-6.  Even the O-line showed some toughness and resolve after embarrassing itself the previous 2 weeks.  They were able to give Baugh just enough room to make some key first downs and finish with 91 yards and a TD, and gave Jones enough time to convert 3rd-down completions despite a ferocious Texas pass rush.  After the defense forced a Manning fumble with just over 2 minutes left, the offense ground out the first down that iced the game while forcing Texas to burn all of it’s timeouts in the process.  Props to the WRs, many of whom, including Wilson, Eric Singleton, and Micah Mays, were battling injuries throughout the game and gutted it out.  It also didn’t help that VB3 was out for the 3rd straight game.  Finally, a continuing issue is too many silly penalties ending series early and forcing the defense into tough situations, and that has to stop.  Again, it wasn’t pretty or exciting, but winning is always the goal.  

Florida’s defense started out slowly, allowing Texas to easily score a TD on it’s first possession of the game, and then giving up another long drive that ended with a FG and a 10-0 deficit to overcome.  At that point it appeared it would be a repeat of most of the first 6 games, and you could sense some desperation along the Gator sideline.  Then – suddenly – the defense awoke, and from that point until 6 minutes left in the game, they shut down Texas, holding them under 100 yards of offense during that time and giving the offense the opportunities it needed to get itself going.  We finally saw some blitzing and some line stunts that seemed to confuse the Texas O-line and QB Arch Manning, helping to generate 5 sacks and holding the Longhorns to under 100 yards passing until less than 5 minutes remained in the game. DE LJ McCray was a menace the entire 2nd half, sacking Manning twice and harassing him numerous times.  The LBs tackled well in space and blitzed successfully, and the entire front seven did a good job of limiting Manning’s scrambling ability and also stopping Texas on two short 4th-down attempts.  Other than the opening drive, the defense held up well, less the 62-yard completion on a 4th-down scramble play that got the Longhorns right back into the game with more than 4 minutes still remaining.  This coming right after Baugh’s TD run that made the score 27-17 with 6 minutes left and had many Texas faithful heading for the exits.  Manning was exposed – again – as a barely-adequate QB that is vastly overrated and cannot consistently read defenses or provide a complementary passing game.  The defense also recovered 2 fumbles – the last coming on a sack of Manning to help clinch the victory when it looked like Florida was about to throw away all the good it had done. 

I also have to mention the special teams.  They were excellent the entire game, less one glaring play.  Patrick Durkin converted his 2 FG attempts into a swirling wind, and 5 of his 6 kickoffs were touchbacks.  But the player of the game may have been punter Alec Clark.  He averaged 52 yards on his 6 punts, including a 75-yarder that should have been downed at the 1-yard line except for an unfortunate mistake by the coverage team.  He flipped the field on every kick except for that aforementioned miscue.  The one unfortunate play was allowing a 63-yard punt return TD that made the score 17-3 Texas and really put the Gators in a hole.  The coverage units have been very good all year, but sometimes you just get beat by a sterling individual effort.  Other than that, another solid performance from this unit that definitely helped secure the win.

So, here we are at the bye week, with the Gators sporting a 5-2 record and two wins over Top 10 opponents at the time of kickoff.  It’s hard to believe that this was Florida’s first road win against a Top 10 opponent since defeating Florida St. in 2012.  This was a huge win for the program and for Jon Sumrall to help quiet some of the criticism and hopefully get the players re-energized for the upcoming games.  There are still plenty of challenges ahead, and also the question of who will be the starting QB.  Jones may have earned the nod given his performance on the road in his first-ever start, but Philo’s health and what happens in practice the next two weeks will be important.  There are many players with nagging injuries that desperately need this off week to heal up.  It’s already been a wild roller-coaster ride, and it could easily continue starting on Halloween against Georgia.

A suddenly reeling Florida now must go on the road to face a Texas team coming off of a bitter and mostly-self-inflicted loss to Oklahoma in it’s annual rivalry game.  You can bet the Longhorns will be pissed off even more than trying to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss at The Swamp to Billy Napier of all people.  Any hopes I had of Texas sleepwalking into this game with an early 11:00 am local kickoff and perhaps a mental letdown after the Red River Rivalry game have now evaporated.

If Florida is to have any chance at all to steal a huge upset win, the defense somehow has to find a way to gain some semblance of stability – especially in the secondary.  QB Arch Manning is vastly overhyped and overrated and can be forced into mistakes, but I just don’t know if DC Brad White (or Sumrall, or whomever) can put the Gator defenders in position often enough to generate some turnovers and get enough stops to give a struggling Gator offense enough opportunities to win.  Unfortunately, I suspect that means we will see more zone coverage to try and force the Longhorns and Manning to be patient and hope for physical or mental mistakes – not comforting.  The front seven showed more aggression in it’s pass rush last week, and I think they can cause problems for Manning despite his running ability.  The tackling last week against South Carolina was the worst of the season, and that is something that can be improved just from better focus and effort – if the defenders aren’t starting to mentally check out.  I sure hope not – the season is only half way over, but you can sense the growing frustration among the Gator defenders.Leaders like Jayden Woods and Myles Graham have to make some big plays to inject some juice into the defense.  Finally – somehow, some way, the secondary has to play better by getting into the right position and sticking to the Longhorn receivers.  I’ve seen no evidence of it to date, but here’s (blindly) hoping.  If not, expect another blowout loss.

Florida’s offense will be facing by far it’s toughest defense to date.  Texas is loaded with talent at all three levels, allowing only 96 yards rushing and 16 points per game.  DE Colin Simmons leads the SEC with 9.5 sacks, 12.5 TFL, and is a likely 1st-round NFL pick.  LBs Rasheem Biles and Justin Cryer and excellent at filling gaps and also in coverage.  And as usual Texas is loaded with elite secondary talent, led by Jelani McDonald, Kade Phillips, and Derek Williams.  All three are sure tacklers and also aren’t afraid of playing run support.  Buster Faulkner will have his plate full trying to establish any sort of consistent offense against this group, and perhaps will have to rely more on specific formations and individual big plays than any methodical drives led by the running game.  I’m guessing that Aaron Philo will start at QB, and he’ll have to play his best game to have any chance of success.  But don’t be surprised to see Tramell Jones come in for a few series as early as the first half to perhaps throw the Longhorns a few changeups and perhaps spark the offense with some specific play calls.  The Gator WRs need to play much better and more aggressively, despite nagging injuries to Dallas Wilson and Bailey Stockton.  Here’s hoping that VB3 will return to action, but he will not be at 100%, just like Eric Singleton, who is gamely trying to play each week but never was allowed to recover from his ankle injury in the opener.  Perhaps either TJ Abrams or Micah Mays can surprise, but neither has done much so far.  It’s looking bleak for the offense, unless the O-line suddenly surprises again and gets out of it’s recent funk.  This is simply not a favorable matchup for Florida.

Jon Sumrall and the Gators are staring at a potential 5- or 6-game losing streak, and one of the most difficult things to do in sports sometimes is to reverse a sudden and massive shift in momentum.  The coaches and players are all saying the right things – for now – but I’m afraid the weaknesses in the roster have been exposed and that the better opponents on the schedule can exploit them too easily to overcome.  Of course, one big win can change the narrative, but that looks like a tall order right now.  I’m afraid there’s gonna be Gator meat added to the BBQ menus in Austin this weekend.

Prediction:

Texas 41

Florida 17