Florida and Billy Napier pulled a rabbit out of the hat Saturday, finding a way to pull off it’s second straight upset of a ranked opponent at The Swamp. This time it was Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin being victimized by a 24-17 loss that will haunt them for a lifetime. Despite a noon kickoff, the game was a sellout, and once again the home crowd was a large factor in the victory. The positive vibes from the LSU win carried over, and the Gators were able to desperately hold on during a tense 4th quarter.
The Rebels rolled up well over 400 yards of offense, won the time of possession battle, and moved at will between the 20s. That’s when things got really weird. Despite QB Jaxson Dart being an accomplished passing and running threat that the Gator defense had to account for, time and again Kiffin rolled out his jumbo package in short yardage situations, with DT JJ Pegues taking the snap as QB. He came into this game converting all 12 of his rushing attempts for either a first down or a touchdown, but the defense rose up and stopped him 3 out of the 5 times he ran the ball – twice in the red zone. It seems Kiffin outsmarted himself in this circumstance, and it was one of the 2 main reasons they lost. The other was multiple dropped passes or potential TD throws that simply went through the hands of their WRs, which hadn’t been an issue all season. It had to be incredibly frustrating for the Rebels as the game wore on, and it seemed to take a mental toll on them late, as they – and Dart especially – pressed too hard in the last 6 minutes and coughed up 2 egregious interceptions. I will say that Florida – to it’s credit – played hard and fast on defense, and that created some of the good fortune. Caleb Banks and the D-line had another solid game with multiple tackles for loss and getting 3 sacks. The secondary lost perhaps it’s best remaining player in Aaron Gates in the 1st quarter due to a knee injury, but Bryce Thornton filled in at less than 100% himself and had the game of his life, recording 14 tackles and getting the 2 interceptions late in the 4th quarter that sealed the win. Once again it was basically 4 DBs playing almost every snap, with little relief or rest and under constant pressure. While they were beaten more often than not, the combination of the rush along with pure hustle was just enough to make this game of inches go Florida’s way.
The Gator offense was able to do just enough to stay close early and then take the lead for good in the 4th quarter. The running game did better than many expected, rolling up 164 net yards and providing Lagway enough balance to complete 10 passes for 180 yards. Montrell Johnson carried the ball for 107 yards on Senior Day, which must have felt especially good after struggling through multiple injuries this season. The Ole Miss D-line is legit and one of the elite groups in the country. DT Walter Nolan specifically was a PROBLEM – he dominated against both the run and rushing the QB, and is gonna be a rich man soon in the NFL. The Florida O-line was up against it all afternoon and had it’s struggles, but was able to establish the running game and give Lagway just enough opportunities to make plays. One of the best results from the game was seeing former Gator Princely Umanmielen have no impact whatsoever, recording just 2 tackles, and then acting the fool after the game outside the stadium as Gator fans gave him everything he deserved. Enjoy the bitterness of a wasted season.
It’s now on to Taliban City and the final regular season game against Florida State. In what can only be described as an utter and complete collapse that began with their humiliating 63-3 loss to Georgia in last season’s Orange Bowl, the Seminoles come into this game as one of the worst teams in the FBS. Quite the turnaround for supposed coaching savant Mike NorveLLLLLLLLL and his portal wizardry. Their only 2 wins have come at home – a 5-point victory against a 5-6 California team that missed 2 short FGs, and last week against FCS school Charleston Southern……a classic battle of two 1-9 teams. That new $84M contract F$U signed NorveLLLLLLLLL to before the season started makes Napier and his $26M buyout look like a bargain, and they are stuck with him for at least 1-2 more seasons due to an even more massive buyout.
F$U’s offense has been truly offensive in 2024. They are currently ranked 131st out of 134 FBS teams in scoring average at a paltry 15.8 points/game. Their supposed big-time QB signing from the portal, DL Ulagalelei, was a complete bust, and his midseason injury has forced them into burning the redshirt year of true freshman Luke Kromenhoek. While having some raw talent, he’s been overwhelmed in his few games as the starter, and right now is more of a running threat than a passing one. As bad as it’s been this season, they do have a few legit skill position players in RB Lawrence Toafili and WRs Ja’khi Douglas and Malik Benson. What’s undercut any hope of success is a horrific O-line that started the season with mediocre talent and frightfully thin quality depth. It only took a few injuries and a key portal defection (former Gator Richie Leonard – LMAO) to gut the unit and make it nearly impossible to sustain any consistent offense for even one complete game. Other than Samford, this is the largest mismatch the Gator defense has entered into a game with. After 2 rousing (and draining) wins and 4 straight games against Top 12 SEC opponents, I’m not sure how much is left in the tank physically and emotionally. I am encouraged by the consistent effort and results (excluding the debacle at Texas – having to play QB3 along with almost the entire starting secondary missing). Many young players have taken advantage of being forced into starting or key rotation roles, and the hope is that they can hold up for just one more game. Florida’s front seven should be able to win it’s share of battles at the LOS, and the secondary should be able to handle the Seminole WRs after holding up pretty well against the elite WR corps of LSU and Ole Miss the past 2 weeks. DC Ron Roberts needs to continue the recent trend of getting after the QB with line stunts and blitzes. As soon as Kromenhoek has to come off of his first read, he will likely panic and take off running, so that’s where disciplined rush lanes and DE play need to be on display to prevent that from extending drives.
I expect more of the same from the Gator offense that we’ve seen the last 2 games. Establish a consistent running game, and take shots deep to Badger or Dike when available. Lagway will still be playing at less than 100%, but he’s shown that he can still be effective and get the job done even without being able to run as much as usual. I am still waiting for him to utilize the TE and RBs more in the passing game to make it easier extending drives. The RB rotation right now is one of the best in the SEC, and should be able to feast as the game wears on. LIke with the defense, I want to see a game plan that is aggressive and fast-paced. Apply pressure to the Seminole defense from the outset, and keep applying it for 4 quarters. FSU’s defense has performed well at times throughout their season, but have to be worn down and demoralized after time and again trudging back on to the field after another short-lived offensive possession. DL Patrick Payton has been solid all season, racking up 4 sacks and being a disruptive force. DBs Shyheim Brown, Azareye’h Thomas, and KJ Kirkland are all good players, but are also the 1st, 3rd, and 5th leading tacklers on the season. That’s a terrible sign for any defense – and underlines how badly most of their front seven has played all season. Florida’s O-line needs to continue it’s improved play and lean on the defense all night. As with any game where Napier is involved in the playcalling, it will look slow and ugly at times, but Florida has enough on offense to eventually pull away on the scoreboard.
One thing that Florida St. has had this year is an excellent pair of kicking specialists. PK Ryan Fitzgerald has made all of his 14 XPs and 12 FG. Punter Alex Mastromanno is one of three finalists for the Ray Guy Award, which makes sense, as he’s had plenty of reps this season. Samuel Singleton has been a dangerous kickoff returner, averaging 26 yards per return, including a touchdown. Fortunately, Florida’s special teams have been solid overall for the first time in Napier’s tenure. PK Trey Smack and P Jeremy Crawshaw compare favorably to FSU’s specialists. Smack has improved throughout the past month and has range well beyond 50 yards. Crawshaw came close to being a Ray Guy Award finalist himself, and should have made the cut. He has continually pinned opponents inside the 20 when needed, and also can boom a punt long if required.
So, what will happen on a cold Saturday night? Yes, this is a rivalry game, but this is a historically (and hysterically) bad F$U team, and winning this year is close to non-negotiable for Napier. I don’t want to see a regression back to “complimentary football” and a slow pace on either offense or defense. Come out right from the start playing hard and fast, get after the Seminoles early, build a lead, then really put the hurt on them in the second half. He’s earned a 4th year with the turnaround and improvement shown the past 6 weeks, but a lot of that positive capital would be lost in a huge upset loss. The high school recruiting class has been given a shot in the arm the past 10 days with some solid commitments, including flips from 2 former Seminole recruits. Allegedly there is a renewed focus on increased funding for NIL. Florida has lagged behind on this since it’s inception in 2022, and it is sorely needed to fill some current and future critical holes on the roster. This is an opportunity to continue the recent upswing in performance, show continued improvement, and carry some real momentum into the offseason, spring and fall practice, and into the start of the 2025 season. I know the Gators are coming off of an incredibly tough stretch of games and back-to-back emotional wins, but the coaching staff and leaders on the team need to keep the team focused and go deep into the well once last time. Don’t screw it up.
Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 4
Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 4 or 3 (win or loss)
Prediction:
Florida 34
Florida St. 16