Florida now enters the difficult part of it’s schedule, starting with the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville.  The last 5 games include 4 Top 20 and 2 Top 5 opponents.  We’re about to see how much this team has either truly improved so far to get to a 5-2 record and within 1 win of becoming bowl-eligible, or if it’s more fool’s gold earned by piling up wins against mostly weaker teams.

This week’s game will be a major challenge, as Georgia comes in playing it’s best football after some struggles early in the season.  The Bulldogs are led by QB Carson Beck, who, while not flashy, has put together a very good season as a first-year starter by playing efficiently and not turning the ball over.  RB Daijun Edwards has come on strong the past month and has to to be slowed down considerably, or else it will be another long afternoon away from the Swamp for the Gator defense.  The run defense has been horrific lately, allowing too many easy running lanes combined with poor tackling.  The defensive staff really needs to get after the players to show more toughness and also play with better technique.  Brock Bowers, UGA’s All-American TE, is out after ankle surgery, which will keep him out for at least a month.  He’s one of the best playmakers in college football, and will be missed by Georgia’s offense.  However, Oscar Delp is a more than capable replacement, and the Gator defense has no reason to relax.  WRs Dominic Lovett (a transfer from Missouri) and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint are excellent players, and the secondary needs to do a much better job of limiting long completions.  Georgia’s offense isn’t as explosive as the previous 2 seasons and will miss Bowers to an extent, but still has a physical O-line and enough talent at the skill positions to be dangerous.

Florida’s offense will face it’s toughest challenge of the season this week.  Georgia again has an excellent defense, despite the loss of more than a dozen players to the NFL over the past 2 drafts.  This group may not have the uber-elite playmakers of recent vintage, but still plays tough, physical football and tackles well.  The Gator O-line has to somehow get enough stalemates at the LOS to allow it’s skill players enough chances to make plays in space and also keep Graham Mertz upright, or this one will get ugly.  Mertz has taken way too much punishment the past few games, and won’t last the season if it continues.  Here’s hoping the off week helps get Kingsley Eguakun back at center and that the rotations at the other positions are finally settled.  I’m not expecting the running game to have consistent success the entire game, but it must generate some first downs to provide some balance and give the passing game a fair chance.  It will be very interesting to see if Billy Napier continues with the game plan employed at South Carolina that utilizes the entire field and plays aggressively, or if he goes back into a shell with risk-averse playcalling.  This team’s best chance is for the offense to stay aggressive the rest of the season, no matter the outcome.  

Special teams almost always contribute to an upset win, and Florida’s group hopefully finds a way to make a big play or two in the return game to help.  After Trevor Etienne made such an impact on kickoff returns the second half of last season, the return game has been mostly absent in 2023.  Trey Smack has been terrific as the FG kicker since taking over in the Tennessee game, and he’ll need to continue to take advantage of every opportunity he’s given.  Georgia has it’s own good placekicker in Peyton Woodring, and Mehki Mews is one of the best kick returners in the SEC.  The Gator coverage units have been very good so far, and that will have to continue – this team isn’t good enough to overcome any serious lapses in coverage leading to easy scores by the Bulldogs.

This game will be used as a measuring stick of whether Napier’s program is showing real improvement in year 2.  It may still end up as a loss, and perhaps the score isn’t terribly close, but how all 3 phases of the game look could be crucial to his long-term rebuilding project……and also to recruits.  He has an excellent recruiting class lined up right now, but it will be hard to keep it together if the next 5 games aren’t at least competitive.

There’s always a chance for an upset in a rivalry game, but it will take Florida’s best effort combined with some mistakes from Georgia for that to happen.  The Gators likely can’t come from behind against the Bulldogs, so they’ll have to find a way to get an early lead and try to hold on.  As of right now, Florida is likely still too young and lacks the physicality and depth necessary to make it happen.

Prediction:

Georgia 35

Florida 17

In just another example of proof a Multiverse exists, Florida actually exhibited an offense that looked like it came from the 21st century and came away with a thrilling 41-39 win at South Carolina.  I can only hope Billy Napier finally has had an epiphany of sorts and realized he wouldn’t be long for his current job unless he ditched his ultra risk-averse philosophy and allowed his offense to play aggressively for an entire game.

The Gator offense was a revelation, consistently throwing the ball to all levels of the field and challenging the defense to cover in space.  And, not surprisingly, they couldn’t, and Florida’s playmakers could actually make plays in 1-on-1 matchups.  It appears that some Miracle-Gro was applied to the route shrub and it became a tree – for at least one game.  Ricky Pearsall had a huge game with some clutch catches and the game-winning TD, Kahliel Jackson had a huge reception and got his own TD later in the same 2nd-quarter drive, and Eugene Wilson made some great runs on jet sweeps and also had the key reception from the deflection off of Pearsall’s hands on the winning drive.  TE Arlis Boardingham again came up big, catching a TD to close the score to 37-34, and saving the game with his 4th-down reception and run to keep that last drive alive.  Even TE Hayden Hansen had a few 1st-down receptions and the 2-point conversion catch.  When Florida did run the ball, Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne combined for over 100 yards, providing the balance needed with such a pass-heavy attack.  All this despite Graham Mertz getting punished behind a shaky O-line.  Mertz has definitely shown he’s tough……and been forced to way too often.  The OL have to improve if he’s to survive the rest of the season, and give the Gators any hope of winning some games.

Florida’s defense, sadly, was as bad as the offense was good.  I don’t know what’s happened to the run defense recently, but they have been gashed repeatedly and the tackling has been abysmal.  I mean, looking like 2022 all over again.  I was incredibly frustrated that DC Austin Armstrong didn’t employ a spy against Carolina QB Spencer Rattler, and it almost cost the Gators the game.  Rattler continually extended drives by running for first downs and extending drives.  This kind of defense has to be addressed in the off week – at all 3 levels – including some possible schematic changes.  The D-line played a little better than the numbers suggest, as they were constantly held by the Lamecock OL.  They were able to get occasional penetration into the backfield and some pressure on Rattler, but there usually was no LB to clean things up where there should have been.  It’s pretty much Shemar James and a cast of thousands at LB right now, which is a disappointment.  The secondary didn’t do itself any favors, either, allowing too many easy catches and yards after the catch as well.  The tackling by the back seven was horrific – both the technique and effort were sorely lacking.  To their credit, the defense did hold up on Carolina’s final 2 possessions, getting pressure on the QB and making the game-sealing interception.  This group is regressing, though, and has to right the ship.

Props again to Trey Smack, who made 4 of 5 FG attempts, including a 54-yarder to close out the first half and give the Gators a 24-21 lead.  His emergence has filled what was a huge deficiency and helped steady the special teams overall.  Every one of his made kicks was needed, and he’ll be relied upon again with the upcoming schedule.

This was a massive win for Napier and the entire program.  Yes, the opponent wasn’t great, but Carolina was coming off of a bye week, made some serious personnel changes that hadn’t been seen on film, and have played pretty well against other good opponents.  I can only hope Napier uses the same aggressive approach with the offense the rest of the way, no matter the results.  The balance of the schedule is much more difficult, with 4 Top 10 and 2 Top 5 opponents left to play.  If you’re gonna go to battle against those kinds of teams, go in with everything you have and give your team it’s best chance.  This win will provide a much-needed shot of confidence to the players.  They’ll need the off-week, as many guys have been playing hurt for weeks due to the lack of both quality depth and experience on the roster.  I’ll be back next week with my preview of Florida vs. the #1 Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville.

Florida got a much-needed bounceback win, handling Vanderbilt 38-14 on Homecoming at the Swamp.  The Gators were never really challenged, as both the offense and defense looked much sharper.  That being said, I can’t get too excited, given the struggles of the Commodores this season.

The offense was led by RB Montrell Johnson, who racked up well over 100 yards and looked the best he has all season – maybe he’s finally getting healthy after an inconsistent month of September.  Graham Mertz was again efficient, but the passing game is still lacking any consistency beyond 5 yards past the LOS.  The biggest development was the emergence of TE Arlis Boardingham, with 99 yards on 7 catches plus 2 TDs.  Here’s hoping there’s finally a TE that can be a consistent receiving threat to help Mertz behind a shaky O-line.  Speaking of which, the O-line held up pretty well despite the absence of LT Austin Barber and C Kingsley Eguakun, but they were matched up against a weak Vandy front seven.  Finally, it was good to see both Ricky Pearsall and Tre Wilson get into the end zone on jet sweeps, since precious few big plays come from the passing game.

The Gator defense did well enough, controlling the Commodore running game and forcing them to pass more often than they’re comfortable with.  However, there were still some breakdowns in coverage, allowing 2 long completions during the game, and an easy TD to close the score within 2 TDs in the 3rd quarter.  The pass rush is still inconsistent and must improve going forward – it has been a disappointment this season.  There were some interesting personnel developments, with LBs Trey Wingo and Teradja Mitchell getting extended looks in the second half.  That’s good for depth, as it will be all hands on deck going forward the rest of the season with the difficult part of the schedule coming up.

It’s now on the road again, this time to Columbia to face South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are 2-3 and coming off of their bye week, which they needed after a very tough start to their schedule, including games away from home against North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee.  They lost all of those, but were at least competitive into the second half, something the Gators have not been away from the Swamp since last October with the one exception being at Florida St.  I don’t believe anyone will buy into any fool’s gold after the Vanderbilt win – it’s time for Billy Napier and his staff to put a competitive team on the field in a road game.

For the Gators to have any chance of winning, the offense must step up by playing faster and using more of the field to make the defense work harder.  It’s been too easy for defenses to play close to the LOS and squeeze what little space there is in Napier’s scheme.  It’s time for a few more deep shots, even as those lower-percentage throws seem to be anathema to Napier’s philosophy of extreme risk-aversion.  Of course, the running game has to be there for balance, and here’s hoping some of the injured linemen are available this week.  I’m hoping RB Trevor Etienne returns this week to give the Gators one of their biggest weapons.  South Carolina’s defense is allowing over 450 yards a game, and Florida somehow needs to take advantage of those struggles and keep them off-balance.  WIth Boardingham and Etienne to go along with Johnson, Pearsall, and Wilson, there are enough weapons for Mertz to exploit the Gamecock defense……if he’s given enough protection and the game plan to do so.

The Gator defense needs to reclaim some honor from it’s dreadful showing in getting manhandled at Kentucky.  South Carolina has had talent and injury issues along it’s O-line, even starting a true freshman at LT.  Their running game has suffered as a result, averaging only 87 yards per game, and they have had to rely on the legs and playmaking ability of QB Spencer Rattler to give them any chance for victory.  He has played well to date, and their passing game challenges defenses downfield.  They are averaging over 300 yards per game through the air, led by WR Xavier Legette.  The Gator secondary has to tighten up this week, at least control Legette to prevent big plays, and force Rattler to throw into tighter windows, where he is prone to making some mistakes.  Cornerback Jason Marshall needs to emerge from his funk in 2023 and start playing like the preseason all-SEC candidate we saw his first 2 seasons.  Since the secondary will have a full plate, the Florida D-line has to get some push at the LOS to not allow the Gamecocks easy running lanes, and also stay disciplined when rushing the passer, forcing Rattler to stay in the pocket.  He is at his most dangerous when ad-libbing with his arm and legs.  Florida needs to show some real fire on defense this week and play with pride.

Gamecock head coach Shane Beamer is a master of special teams, and I’m sure will have his usual bag of tricks ready for this one.  Florida has to be alert all game long in any kicking game situation and not allow some kind of momentum-switching play that can swing a game away from them.  The Gator kickers have looked very good the last two games and need to execute at their best whenever called upon.

This is desperation time for South Carolina.  With the advantage of having an off-week to get healthy, along with the memory of the beatdown Florida put on them last season, they will have all the motivation they need and will come out firing.  Florida has the talent to stay in the game, but until the coaching staff proves they have the Gators motivated and focused like they should be on the road, I remain skeptical of their chances of winning away from home until they prove they can get it done.  This is a pivotal game for Napier to show Gator Nation he’s addressing these issues and actually show marked improvement in a road environment.

Prediction:

South Carolina 27

Florida 20

BIlly Napier’s Prevent Offense was once again successful, gifting Kentucky an easy 33-14 win in Lexington that wasn’t as close as the final score.  This game was over early, as the Gators looked flat and disinterested from the opening kickoff, falling behind 23-0 while getting manhandled and embarrassed by the Wildcats all day.  It’s one step forward and two or more steps back, as the staff once again failed to have the team ready for a road game.  I know there are a lot of young guys in the 2-deep roster, but this is getting ridiculous, and starting to give fans and the media a lot of ammunition to start taking shots at Napier for continued miserable play away from home.  Hearing comments from some of the players about how it was hard to get ready for an early kickoff, along with Napier saying he’ll remain the playcaller and that he’s confident in the offensive scheme, does not give me much confidence that things will improve the rest of 2023 unless some major changes are made.  This is starting to look and sound like some failures of previous coaching regimes – I like Napier, but being a nice guy doesn’t necessarily make for a good head coach.  Some self-awareness and humility might be in order – VERY soon.

Napier has to be honest with himself and realize this offense doesn’t work.  The route shrub, er, tree for the passing game does little more than put receivers too close to each other, and much too often too close to the line of scrimmage.  All of the motion is wasted, as that player (too often Ricky Pearsall) is usually left at the sideline with nowhere to go.  Too many running plays on 3rd-and-long.  Too many pass routes bunching receivers, allowing the defense easy coverage in a small space.  80+% of passes thrown either behind the line of scrimmage or within 5 yards of it, with precious little use of the middle of the field or deep routes.  This kind of offensive ineptitude has led to the firing of previous coaches across the country, not just at Florida, and Napier is starting to dig his own coaching grave.  Something has to change now, even if that means recusing himself from playcalling and letting someone like Russ Callaway and/or Billy Gonzales to have a crack at it.  Even with a struggling O-line, some schemes can be developed and implemented to help what talent you do have succeed.  Stubbornly sticking to a 1970s-style power game when it’s 2023 and the rules favor the passing game and spreading the field just won’t work against good or better teams consistently.  As for the execution of the offense to date – with respect to John McKay – I’m all for it.

I am not absolving the Gator defense of blame, as it did itself no favors with it’s worst showing of 2023, and looked horrifyingly like the 2022 version.  Way too many missed tackles, blown assignments, and playing soft against the run, allowing over 300 yards on the ground and making things way too easy for Kentucky’s offense.  The defenders took bad angles, displayed terrible tackling technique, and looked slow.  The few times they put Devin Leary into a passing situation they defended well, but it was way too infrequent.  There was also a dropped interception that could have been a pick-6.  The lack of energy on defense was alarming and troubling, and the defensive staff has to get this fixed.

To cap off a complete team failure, another special teams gaffe led directly to a Wildcat TD.  After actually forcing a punt deep in Kentucky territory and likely setting up the offense with great field position, a punt rusher illegally jumped over the center to try and block the kick.  This gave Kentucky a first down, and was immediately followed on the next play by a long TD run that essentially ended the game early.  Nice.

Florida returns to the Swamp this week for Homecoming, with Vanderbilt as the opponent.  The Commodores are back to their usual self, but there is some real angst taking hold regarding the Gator offense, and some key injuries for this game could make things even worse than usual.  LT Austin Barber is likely out, as is RB Trevor Etienne.  The O-line is regressing, and having to juggle the lineup doesn’t help.  Vanderbilt head coach Chuck Lea is a solid defensive coach, and will have a scheme ready – he just lacks the horses to usually maximize his plan.  If the O-line plays poorly and can’t get the running game going, I’m not confident that Graham Mertz – especially in this offense – can get the passing game going effectively enough to score a lot of points, if needed.  It’s been painfully easy for defenses to play against this offense the entire season except for the first 2 quarters against Tennessee.  Someone, maybe a senior like Pearsall, has to step up and make a big play or two.

Florida’s defense should hold up much better against Vandy’s rushing attack than last week (which isn’t saying much), but the Commodores have shown the ability to hit some deep throws this season, and I expect them to try a handful on Saturday.  The front seven needs to take last week’s embarrassment to heart and play with much more aggression and tackle better.  The pass rush has all but disappeared the past 2 games, and players like Princely Umanmielen have been somewhat disappointing so far in 2023.  Whether it’s the scheme or the players themselves, the Gators have to rediscover getting pressure on the QB.  I want to see tight coverage from the secondary all afternoon, and it’s time for the defense to generate some turnovers.

Gator Nation is coming home to celebrate this Saturday, not to fret over some kind of death struggle with Vanderbilt.  Unfortunately, I could easily see a game in doubt into the 4th quarter, unless there’s an epiphany from Napier and the offense.  Something tells me there’s a hangover from the Kentucky game throughout the first half, and this one could be too close for comfort.  I sure hope I’m wrong.

Prediction:

Florida 23

Vanderbilt 17

If you ever needed an example of an ugly win, this was it.  Florida stumbled to a 22-7 win over Charlotte, draining most of the energy out of the Swamp early on and sleepwalking to victory.  I expected a letdown from a young team, but this performance was even worse than I expected.  Not exactly what the fans were hoping for from Billy Napier and the Gators against an overmatched opponent.

The offense was horrid – 1 of 9 on 3rd-down conversions, settling for 5 FGs, multiple failures in the red zone, sloppy O-line play (yes, there were some suspensions for a half to deal with), and more unimaginative playcalling.  The passing offense is just……uninspiring, despite Graham Mertz being efficient in it.  Still precious few downfield attempts, and a stubborn refusal to use the middle of the field with regularity.  Even the running game was poor, with the O-line not getting any consistent push.  I’m starting to wonder about RB Montrell Johnson – even when he had some holes, he doesn’t look anything like he did last season.  He’s indecisive, gets tackled too easily, and is lacking the power he showed in 2022.  Trevor Etienne had too few touches.  The play of the game was Ricky Pearsall’s spectacular catch in the 1st quarter, leading to the only Gator touchdown of the night.  The only other offensive highlight of note I can recall was a TE actually catching a TD pass.  It looks like Arlis Boardingham may have become TE1, which is fine by me, as he actually looks like a receiving threat.

The defense did enough, but experienced some disinterested tackling in the 2nd half after Charlotte switched QBs and ran more zone reads.  There were some busts in the pass coverage as well, especially when the QB evaded the initial rush.  The interior D-line played well, but the edges were a little too soft against the run.  Again, the intensity level was way down from the previous week, but this is what you’re gonna get with so many young players and few upperclassmen starters.

FInally, the special teams overall had their best game of the season.  Good punt/kick coverage, and Trey Smack came through with a 5-5 night on FGs, including a 54-yarder.  All of his kickoffs went for touchbacks as well.  He’ll be counted upon heavily with Napiers’ conservative attack.  

The entire staff now has more work to do, with an important road test at Kentucky this week.  It’s sad to have to say that, but it’s what the Florida football program has become recently.  The first road game at Utah was a disastrous performance, and we’ll see if there is actual improvement playing away from the Swamp.

Kentucky comes in at 4-0, but has looked unimpressive in wins over some weak opponents.  New QB Devin Leary (a portal transfer from NC State) has been shaky at times, their running game has not been as strong as previous years, and their defense – head coach Mark Stoops’ specialty – has struggled as well.  The Gator defense has improved this year, and will have to carry the load again in this game.  The front seven looks like it can hold it’s own against a Wildcat O-line that has taken a step back from previous seasons.  Ray Davis is the leading rusher, but isn’t a breakaway threat.  The secondary is talented enough to control the UK WRs, led by Tayvion Robonson.  What I hope to see is DC Austin Armstrong’s continued aggression in dictating the tempo of the game, even if there’s an early hiccup.  Leary is completing less than 60% of his passes and already has racked up 5 interceptions – it’s time for the defense to generate some turnovers to help the offense.  I’m not counting on the Gator offense to do very much on the road until they prove they can, so the defense needs to carry the day.

Florida’s offense has fallen off dramatically it’s past 6 quarters of football.  The running game needs to be re-established, but Kentucky will follow the expected opponent’s game plan by crowding the box and daring the Gators to throw deeper routes and use the middle of the field more often.  I hope to see more passing on early downs to try and loosen up the secondary.  Reportedly, center Kingsley Equakun and WR Tre Wilson are going to play, which are huge additions.  Wilson has the juice to make plays in space and keep the defense more honest, opening up more opportunities for Pearsall and the other WRs.  Both will be playing through some painful injuries, but I hope they can tough it out for the entire game.  Etienne needs to be the lead RB right now and get more touches until Johnson proves he’s back to form.  The offense has to exhibit more efficiency when it reaches the red zone, or else I could see this one slipping away in the 4th quarter.

At the Swamp or even on a neutral field, I think Florida wins this game.  However, until I see a complete team effort and a more aggressive passing attack on the road, I’m afraid that somehow the Gators find a way to lose this one.  It’s a hugely important game for Napier to build upon his win over Tennessee, but there’s too much inconsistency in this young team yet where I’m comfortable predicting a win.  I could see this game staying close throughout, and Napier being comfortable with that and just trying to steal a win late.  It’s hard to believe Kentucky has won 2 straight and 3 out of 5 against Florida after the Gators reeled off 31 consecutive victories.  At some point Florida will have to prove itself on the road again in winnable conference games.

Prediction:

Kentucky 20

Florida 17

BIlly Napier got his biggest win to date at Florida with a 29-16 victory over Tennessee in front of a fantastic crowd at the Swamp.  The game followed his blueprint of a commanding running game, an efficient passing game that does just enough, and – finally – what appears to be a real defense led by competent coaching.  It’s also his first win against a Florida rival, which had been talked about all offseason and especially the week leading up to this game.

As exciting as it was to watch the Gators race out to a 26-7 halftime lead with 4 straight offensive TDs, it was even better to watch a young defense start to grow up and show what it can be capable of against a legitimate opponent.  The defense has been good all season, but this was by far it’s biggest challenge, and they rose to the occasion.  There were some hiccups with late substitutions against Tennessee’s fast-paced offense, but that’s to be expected.  The secondary allowed 3 long pass completions, but 2 of those were against true freshmen, and for the most part the DBs were allowed to cover closely and play a lot of man coverage.  What a breath of fresh air after watching the soft-as-charmin schemes of Todd Grantham and Patrick Toney the past 4 years.  The Florida D-line played very well, getting pressure on the QB and also controlling the Vol running game – the key to the win in my opinion.  Doing that forced Tennessee into too many must-pass downs, and I knew that Joe MIlton would not be able to deliver consistently.  The play of the Gator LBs was also fun to watch – they were able to showcase their speed in filling running lanes and also in coverage.  That is a tough offense for LBs to play against, and the young guys, led by Shemar James and Scooby Williams, held up against the pressure of the Vol quick-passing game.  There were a few missed tackles in space, but that’s going to happen against the talent Tennessee has on offense, and can be excused.  Overall, just an excellent effort for 60 minutes, and (hopefully) something to build upon going forward this season.

Florida actually showed life on offense in the 1st half.  Trevor Etienne was spectacular, racking up over 100 of his total of 172 rushing yards, including a long TD run in response to Tennessee taking a 7-0 lead and getting the crowd back into the game and energizing the entire team.  Montrell Johnson did not look his usual self and had limited touches, but capitalized with two nifty cutback runs for scores – one on a running play and one on a screen pass from Graham Mertz.  Mertz was terrific in the 1st half, going 17-20 and keeping the offense moving with some clutch 3rd-down completions.  Tre Wilson was a revelation at WR, being leaned on heavily in the 1st quarter on both jet sweeps and getting some key first down receptions, until unfortunately leaving with a bruised collarbone.  What was disturbing was that, after he left, it seemed much of the Gator passing game did as well, as suddenly it reverted to painfully conservative short throws, too often short of the sticks and not utilizing the middle of the field.  Napier admitted after the game he was too conservative the entire 2nd half, but I’ve seen that happen a little too often with him, and am afraid it’s more his comfort zone and will come back to bite him unless he learns to stay more aggressive.  It was hard watching the defense repeatedly being run back out after a 3-and-out, but they responded.

Overall this was quite the improvement from the troubles at Utah to start the season.  The coaching staff gets credit for having the team focused on the job at hand and cleaning up mistakes and penalties.  The “Gamechangers”, however, remain a huge question mark.  Adam Mihalek simply lost his composure, missing an easy FG and an extra point badly.  He looked lost coming off the field, his confidence completely shot.  Napier was forced to let Trey Smack handle the placekicking after the misses, and fortunately he delivered.  I have to believe he will be doing all of the kicking for the foreseeable future.  Jeremy Crawshaw punted adequately, but had another shank that gave Tennessee excellent field position for their final drive, which the Gator defense was able to eventually stop.  He has to become more consistent.

Finally, I have to address Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel and his ridiculous time out at the end of the game.  All he did was incite an ugly finish that got 4 players suspended for the 1st half of their next game, including 3 Gator O-linemen, which was a ridiculous ruling from the SEC office.  Then, he doubled down in his post-game press conference with a weak response to questions, while smacking on chewing gum and being dressed like a traffic cone.  He comes out of this looking like a bum, with Napier being too nice of a guy to call him out for it.  Methinks Steve Spurrier or Urban Meyer certainly wouldn’t have let it go that easily.

Florida concludes it’s 3 game home stand against the Charlotte 49ers.  Charlotte should present more of a challenge than McNeese St., but is still overmatched.  The Niners are mostly a running team, and assuredly will try to keep the game respectable early.  They should be helped on defense by the suspensions along the Gator O-line for the 1st half of the game.  This could reduce the effectiveness and efficiency of Florida’s offense for a while, but it will also present an opportunity for some backups and younger players to show their potential for future games.  The suspensions, along with Mertz playing with an injured hand and the loss of Wilson for potentially a few weeks, could make this a boring, run-heavy affair that may not appease the fans in the stands or watching at home.  The Gators will still win this one, but it could be an ugly, sloppy game with Napier just trying to protect his team from any further injuries prior to the upcoming road game at Kentucky.  I do expect a bit of a letdown from such a young team, but the staff needs to show better in getting the team ready after a big game, failing badly in doing so last season.

Prediction:

Florida 38

Charlotte 10

Florida enjoyed the closest thing to an off week Saturday night, beating an outmanned McNeese St. team that was likely one of the worst teams to come to the Swamp in decades.  The Gators were able to play many young guys early and often, emptying the bench in the second half and fortunately avoiding any injuries of note.

Coach Napier did what I expected – running the ball early and often for reps in preparation for the schedule to come.  There was nothing of note put on film for Tennessee to look at – the offense made vanilla look exotic.   There was more tempo between plays, which I can only hope continues, but something tells me it won’t against better opponents until Napier proves he’s willing.  With the new clock rules having a running clock until the last few minutes of each half, there is less time than ever to run plays, so an offense needs to pick up the pace in order to get as many possessions as possible.  The Gator defense was unchallenged all night, and only allowed 112 total yards.  I wish there was more of substance to take away from their performance, but MSU was truly awful.  Their only score came after a turnover by Florida’s bench players inside the Gator 20-yard line with a few minutes left.

Things are going to get real this Saturday night, with the SEC opener against Tennessee at the Swamp.  After the sloppy and disjointed loss at Utah in the opener, Gator Nation needs to see a solid effort from both the players and coaching staff this week.  The Vols come in ranked in the Top 10, but that’s more based on last year’s results, as they have not looked particularly good beating Virginia and Austin Peay.  Still, their fast-break offense will be a huge challenge for Florida’s young and inexperienced defense to handle, even at home.

Tennessee is riding with Joe Milton at QB, and he has looked pedestrian at times in place of last year’s starter, Hendon Hooker.  As much attention is given to the Vol’s tempo on offense and passing game, it’s their running game which has to be contained in order for the Gators to win.  If Florida can force Milton into obvious passing situations, he has shown he will struggle to complete a high percentage of throws and also be subject to sacks and turnovers.  He is not comfortable handling pressure in the backfield, and this is priority one for the Gators.  Tennessee has two good RBs in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small -neither of which are terribly big but both are quick, slashing runners.  It’s incumbent on Florida’s front seven to stay disciplined in both filling the running lanes with the LBs and setting the edge with the DEs.  Ramel Keyton, Squirrel White, and Bru McCoy make up a decent WR corps, but nothing the Gator secondary can’t handle with any help from the pass rush.  The Gator LBs will have to be aware and on point in covering the RBs out of the backfield, though – something that has been a struggle for years now.  Players like DLs Chris McClellan and Caleb Banks, LBs Princely Umanmielen and Shemar James, and DBs Jason Marshall, Jaydon Hill, and Jordan Castell all have to play well and lead the defense in it’s biggest challenge of the season to date.

Until something changes, I expect more ball-control pace for the Florida offense, trying to get the running game going enough to keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline and shortening the game by running clock.  And I also expect the Vols to employ what every Gator opponent on defense will – stacking the box until the Gators can prove they can win with their passing game.  While I’m hopeful the running game will show better than against Utah (that’s not saying much), Graham Mertz and the receivers have to step up and make some big plays.  Tennessee’s defense is decent but nothing special – can the Gators show they’re good enough to take advantage of passing opportunities?  Just another question that remains unanswered until this game is over.  I hope they feed Ricky Pearsall plenty of targets, and also get Eugene Wilson on the edge with some jet sweeps and quick passes to let him work in space.  What I don’t want to see are continued 2 TE sets, as none have shown they can threaten as receivers, and this allows the defense to crowd the line of scrimmage and short-to-intermediate passing zones.

This is a massive game for Napier’s perception – not just from Gator Nation, but from the entire country.  Year one ended badly, year two started badly, and the SEC is relentless in exposing problems.  Florida must show it can play better against legitimate competition, despite all of the youth and inexperience on the roster.  This roster is almost completely Napier’s now, and it’s time to see improvement and better in-game coaching/playcalling/adjustments.  Unfortunately, I’m afraid that the tempo of Tennessee’s offense causes just enough problems for the young Gator defense that they are able to score enough to win at the Swamp, even if I’m not sold on their QB or defense.

Prediction: Tennessee 31 Florida 24

In a shockingly mismanaged effort that I had the displeasure of watching in person, Florida lost a winnable game at Utah, and Billy Napier again provided the opportunity for the critics to have a field day.  I don’t want to hear about this being a road game at a ranked opponent in a hostile environment.  It was not that loud nor intimating a venue, and Utah was missing many key players and didn’t play that well, either.  This was just another poorly-coached effort and another example of a Napier offense that has no sense of urgency regarding the score or the time remaining.  Too many penalties at critical junctures – especially two illegal-formation penalties that ended drives into the red zone – were unacceptable.

Regarding the offense, it showed why I was concerned coming into 2023.  The running game was gutted by not just poor O-line play, but also the loss of Anthony Richardson to the NFL.  His running and big-play ability bailed out the OL many times last season, and Graham Mertz simply won’t be able to do the same.  There were no lanes for either Montrell Johnson or Trevor Etienne to exploit, and they were repeatedly stuffed.  This forced Mertz into passing much more often than expected, and he actually played better than I hoped.  The O-line and Napier’s playcalling did him no favors, and he took a beating all night with 5 sacks and other hits.  The lack of any running game made Florida one-dimensional, and the numbingly-slow tempo – a hallmark of Napier’s offense at Florida to date – precluded any real chance of a late comeback.  The lack of urgency in speeding things up to give the offense more snaps and more opportunities displays a stubbornness and lack of awareness in Napier that is simply not SEC-quality coordination.  In addition, when Florida actually employed 4- and 5-WR sets instead of the wasteful bunch sets with 2 or 3 TEs, they were able to generate some big plays and move the ball……but Napier refused to stick with it.  Ricky Pearsall made some big plays when fed the ball in the second half, and some of the young receivers like Marcus Burke and Eugene Wilson showed their speed and elusiveness with some chunk plays.  Too many pass attempts are being wasted on a TE group that simply lacks speed and big-play capability, not to mention their poor blocking performance.  Will Napier make some significant changes to help clean up this mess?  I’m not so sure, as he appears to be steadfast about being the playcaller.  His comments about needing to “keep focusing on the running game” aren’t confidence-inspiring.

The Gator defense did not play a great game, but well enough to win.  The lack of a pass rush was disappointing – Princely Umanmielen did nothing of note, while the blitz packages were too reminiscent of the Grantham and Toney defenses.  The interior D-line did look improved, as they did not allow Utah to run consistently well between the tackles.  The lack of attention to Utah’s backup QB being only effective as a runner was stunning, as Nick Johnson was able to convert just enough plays to keep some drives alive that never should have happened.  Florida also had many true freshmen getting key reps throughout the game, and many of them showed flashes of promise and made some big plays.  Safeties Jordan Castell and Miguel Mitchell tackled well, LB T.J. Searcy was all over the field, and DE Kelby Collins got some push into the backfield.  LB Shemar James was the star, with 15 tackles and displaying real speed in covering ground sideline-to-sideline.  Despite all of these issues, including no help from the offense and given some poor field position a few times, they allowed only 270 yards of total offense, including the 73-yard bomb for a TD on the first scrimmage play for Utah.  I will not blame them for giving up an 11-yard TD drive after an interception, and they had already made a key stop late in the first half before the “Two #3s” call allowed Utah to continue a drive for a late TD and a 17-3 halftime lead that changed the complexion of the game.

The “Gamechangers” were an embarrassment……again.  A missed 30-yard FG, a shanked punt leading to a short field for a Utah TD drive, and having 8 men on defense for a FG attempt were bad enough.  But the one that will never be forgotten was “Two #3s on the field for the defense.  First down, Utah.”.  What a debacle – just another example that Napier’s special teams-by-committee coaching approach is a failure.  Assign one voice to the room, and don’t waste 2 coaching slots on the O-line.  The kickoff and punt coverage teams played very well, but the loss of easy points and momentum at key times were too much to overcome for a young defense and sluggish offense.  Wilson made a bad decision fielding a punt inside his own 5-yard line, but that’s a mistake by a true freshman that will get corrected.  This group simply has to improve – now.

Florida now entertains McNeese St. for the home opener, in what can only be described as an uninspiring matchup at best.  Other than getting more reps for the young and inexperienced players, this is nothing more than a glorified scrimmage.  Very little can be gleaned from this kind of game, and I expect a lot of empty seats and a crowd that will be unhappy with anything but a large blowout victory – something that Napier’s teams have not shown the ability to do no matter the level of competition.  Hopefully this one is decided early, so fundamentals can be worked on with nothing of note to put on tape for Tennessee.  The main thing in a game like is……NO INJURIES.

Prediction: Florida 45 McNeese St. 7

Here we go.  Florida opens it’s 2023 season with a tough challenge on the road at Utah.  The Utes will have revenge on their minds after last year’s close 29-26 loss to the Gators at the Swamp, but there are serious extenuating circumstances surrounding both teams that make predicting who will win this game very difficult.

Utah’s QB situation is murky right now, and that’s being kind.  Cam Rising is coming off of an ACL injury in the Rose Bowl only 7 months ago, and has seen little practice time in fall camp.  He has not been cleared by doctors yet for any full contact, so there’s a real chance he doesn’t play, which is a big hit for them.  Freshman Brandon Rose came in and right away passed Bryson Barnes as QB2, but suffered his own knee injury a few weeks ago and is out.  That leaves Barnes as the presumptive starter, with hardly-used Nick Johnson as the backup.  Barnes saw some action late last season and in the Rose Bowl, but really didn’t show much.  IF……if Rising doesn’t play (and I think he will until the game starts and he’s in street clothes), then Florida will benefit.  Rising is a tough runner and very experienced player who makes that offense go, and his loss will be felt, no matter how well coached the Utes are by Kyle Whittingham and his staff.

If it’s Barnes, then expect a heavy dose of the running game led by Micah Bernard and Ja’Quindon Jackson.  Both are big backs that are tough to bring down behind a solid O-line.  Barnes can run effectively as well, but unless he can establish a passing game that shows it can threaten the Gator defense, they could struggle.  Utah usually relies on it’s TEs in the passing game, and I expect the same this season.  But even there they are hurt by the loss of Dalton Kincaid to the NFL, and Brant Kuithe is coming off of his own ACL injury last September.  I think he’ll play, and Florida has to slow him down and force Barnes to look for other receivers.  Utah does have one big concern other than Rising’s availability – they very well could be playing a true freshman at left tackle.

Of course, maybe none of Utah’s concerns at QB will matter unless the Gator defense can finally leave behind the stink of terrible play the past 3 seasons and can show significant improvement.  The D-line lost Gervon Dexter to the NFL, but Napier did well in the portal acquiring Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks to be immediate contributors at tackle along with Chris McClellan and Dez Watson.  Utah will always look to run the ball early and often, and the interior defense has to be stout.  If Rising doesn’t play, then I expect an even heavier reliance on the running game until the Gators show they can slow it down.  Florida lost it’s best run-stopping LB in Ventrell Miller to the NFL along with Amari Burney, so it’s time for Shemar James, Scooby Williams, Trey Wingo, and transfers Deuce Spurlock and Teradja Mitchell to step up against the run and also improve the pass coverage of the LB corps, which has struggled for years.  It appears new Defensive Coordinator Austin Armstrong will run a lot of 4-2-5 alignments, which means an extra defensive back – especially at the Star position – will be relied upon to help cover the Ute TEs.  Jason Marshall, Jalen Kimber, and Jaydon Hill are good enough to handle the Utah WRs, but the safety play of RJ Moten, Kamari Wilson, and Miguel Mitchell has much to prove.  This group has to show it can be in the right position, take proper angles, and tackle well when necessary.  There is little experience and continuity, and they can’t afford many miscommunications or blown assignments.

Florida comes into the opener with it’s own concerns at QB.  Graham Mertz has distanced himself from Jack MIller and Max Brown as the starter, and comes into his 4th year of college ball with 2 years of starting experience at Wisconsin.  However……his play there wasn’t great by any means, and he doesn’t approach what Anthony Richardson could do in the running game or to avoid sacks and generate big plays with his legs.  Mertz needs to play smart and manage the game – he has to prove he can complete passes in the short and intermediate zones to extend drives, throw with accuracy, and make the correct reads.  He’d better, as Billy Napier has thrown all of his eggs into the Mertz basket for 2023.  The Gators will undoubtedly rely on their running game again in 2023, led by RBs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne.  The O-line has been rebuilt after losing 3 starters, including All-American O’Cyrus Torrence.  The staff did a good job of filling those openings by acquiring Micah Mazzccua, Damien George, and Lyndell Hudson through the portal, to go along with returning starters Kingsley Eguakun at center and Austin Barber at left tackle.  There is better depth and some experience among the backups, which is a welcome change.  I expect the Utah defense to crowd the box to try and slow the run game and make Mertz prove he can hurt them throwing the ball.  That means a young and inexperienced receiving corps has to make some key plays.  Ricky Pearsall is the best of the group, but likely gets extra attention until others show they can make plays.  Some combination of Caleb Dougkas, Marcus Burke, and Ja’Quavion Fraziars need to prove they can get open and help the Gators move the ball through the air if Pearsall is the focus of the defensive secondary.  Perhaps one of the true freshmen – Aiden Mizell, Andy Jean, and Eugene Wilson – can surprise early, but that’s a big ask.

Florida’s special teams, er, “Gamechangers”, struggled often in 2022, and must show improvement.  The Gators will have little room for error against it’s better opponents, and need positive contributions from the kickers and returners.  Etienne is an excellent kickoff returner, and it looks like Pearsall will be the #1 punt returner.  It’s risky having two valuable skill players at those positions, but that’s what happens unless you have quality depth in the entire roster.  Jeremy Crawshaw will need to provide solid punting, and Adam Mihalek hopefully comes through when needed for any FGs.

This is a huge game for Napier and the Gators.  If they can pull off the upset win, or even lose a close game in which they show some balance on offense and an improved defense, that would go a long way in showing not just Gator Nation but themselves that progress is being made, and Napier’s long-term rebuild is on schedule.  Suffer an ugly loss filled with bad QB play and poor defense, and the criticism from outside will start immediately and only intensify.  I think Florida knows what it’s up against both on the field and regarding it’s perception nationally, and I expect a good performance and close game.  I just think the change at QB and this being a road game against a well-coached and experienced team are too much to overcome in a season opener.

Prediction:

Utah 24

Florida 20

“Fear and Loathing in Gainesville” is a great way to describe what much of Gator Nation is feeling going into the 2023 season.  Season one is in the books for Billy Napier, and it was certainly a roller coaster ride.  There were some highs with the opening win against Utah, blowing out South Carolina at home, along with a nice road win at Texas A&M.  But it ended with a terrible thud – 3 straight losses – a dud at Vanderbilt, a bitter close loss at F$U, and an embarrassment in the bowl game against Oregon St.  While Napier and his staff in general showed some glimpses of hope with some excellent talent acquisition and good player development at several positions, there were some serious issues regarding time management on offense, the overall defense, and much of the special teams that hurt the team all season.  The last 3 games also impacted much of the goodwill built up until then, and gave Gator Nation cause for worry – again.

Gone is defensive coordinator Patrick Toney, which is addition by subtraction.  Gone is WR coach Keary Colbert to the NFL, which is a major blow.  Gone also are a handful of significant contributors led by QB Anthony Richardson and guard O’Cyrus Torrence on offense and LB Ventrell MIller on defense.  While Torrence was a revelation and an eventual All-American, the others, along with many juniors and seniors left over from the previous regime, were wildly inconsistent, and some often not good enough for the SEC.

Napier and his staff have turned over almost the entire roster now, but still have a long way to go in establishing quality depth and a proven culture of winning.  There are also some new coaches in Defensive Coordinator Austin Armstrong and WR coach Billy Gonzales, both being very surprising hires.  The 2024 recruiting class for now looks like the best since the Urban Meyer years, which is a huge improvement and bodes well for the future.  However, there is much more work to do both on and off the field, and we’re here to talk about right now.

Offense

While we now have one season of evidence to get a feel for what Napier wants to do, there is so much roster turnover along with youth and inexperience that 2023 again could prove to be maddeningly inconsistent.  Overall depth might be better, but there are some significant personnel losses that might prove too much to overcome given the players replacing them.

At quarterback, Richardson was the 4th overall pick in the NFL Draft and is now the starter for the Indianapolis Colts.  He will be replaced by Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz, who is in his 4th year of college and has 2 years of starting experience.  Alas, much of that experience was inconsistent, and sometimes just not very good.  The usual questions of whether it was the coach or player responsible have followed him to Gainesville, and his performance in the Orange and Blue game left many with still more questions and concerns.  Accuracy seems to be an issue, and he is nothing close to what AR was regarding running the ball or avoiding sacks – obviously few are.  Reportedly he has picked up the paybook rapidly and his teammates like him, but we know all of that can change on a dime with some poor play.  Backing up Mertz will be Jack Miller and Max Brown.  Miller did nothing in the bowl game or in the O&B game to prove he can be an effective player, and Brown is still splitting time between football and baseball, although he was full-time with football during the spring.  All I want to see is consistency – good reads, good decision-making, decent accuracy throwing the ball in the short and intermediate zones, and limiting bad plays and turnovers.  None of the QBs is a high-ceiling playmaker, so these are the things they can do to make the team successful.  If Mertz gets injured or plays poorly, this season could easily go off the rails and really turn up the heat on Napier.  Napier apparently wanted Mertz all along, but also wanted another transfer QB for competition, and simply failed to land one for any number of reasons.  Fair or not, he is tied directly to what happens to Mertz in 2023.  Napier reiterated in the offseason that he is most comfortable as the playcaller and de facto Offensive Coordinator, and puts a lot of pressure on him to deliver.

The running back room again looks to be the best and deepest unit on the entire team, and one of the best in the country.  Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne return after stellar 2022 seasons.  Johnson showed power and surprising speed, while Etienne showed elite burst and moves.  They should also be featured more in the passing game in 2023, both to help the QBs stay clean but also because of questions surrounding the O-line and WR corps.  Cam Carroll is a 5th-year senior transfer from Tulane who impressed in fall camp with his power and blocking ability, but has been lost for the season to an ACL injury.  JUCO transfer Ja’Kobi Jackson moves up in the pecking order now and at least brings some experience to the position.  Treyaun Webb is a Gator legacy and held his own during the spring as a true freshman – he will get some chances this fall to provide depth.  Coach Jabbar Juluke has shown very well both in recruiting and developing his players.

The WR corps has many questions to answer.  It starts with new position coach Gonzales, who stunningly was hired back to Gainesville after Colbert’s departure to the NFL.  Gonzales was stained by the association with the Dan Mullen staff, despite good work in that stint and in his first during the Meyer era.  There is a ton of raw athletic talent to work with, but precious little experience.  Ricky Pearsall was another key portal acquisition in 2022 and immediately became Florida’s most consistent and dangerous receiver.  He toyed with the idea of leaving for the NFL, but thankfully decided to stay in Gainesville for one more season – his leadership will be critical to this unit’s success.  Sophomore Caleb Douglas has impressed in both spring and fall camp.  Ja’Quavion Fraziars and Marcus Burke are in their 3rd year at Florida and have to step up or be left behind.  True freshmen Aiden Mizell, Andy Jean, and Eugene Wilson were the excellent recruiting class put together in just one year by Colbert, and all have already flashed in practice and will get early chances this fall.  Wilson is especially quick and elusive and may get an early look as a punt returner as well.  Coach Gonzales has the pedigree of good development of WRs, but has to overcome the youth and lack of experience within this unit – quickly.

The TE room is the least talented on the roster, and has a long way to go to show it can compete successfully in the SEC.  Losing coach William Peagler to the NFL was a good thing, as he showed nothing in regards to recruiting or player development.  Russ Callaway was promoted from the support staff, but comes with plenty of experience as a position coach and playcaller.  Keon Zipperer was the apparent starter coming into 2023, until he tore his ACL in the spring and was lost for the season.  Dante Zanders has lost weight to improve his speed, but showed little last season after moving over from the D-line.  Arlis Boardingham is by far the best athlete at the position, but is battling injuries in fall camp – he needs to get some early opportunities as a decent receiving threat to help the offense.  Hayden Hanson is the biggest target and by far the best run-blocker, which could get him on the field earlier than expected in what could be a run-heavy offense.  Jonathan Odom came on late in 2022 as an excellent blocker, but tore an ACL in the bowl game and may not contribute much until perhaps later in the season.  Overall this group does not look promising right now, unless there is a major surprise.

Finally, we come to the offensive line.  This unit was a surprising strength in 2022, leading what was one of the best running attacks in the country.  However, there have been significant losses to graduation (Torrence) and the portal (Ethan White, Michael Tarquin), which has filled this unit with plenty of questions and concerns.  They will not have Richarson’s legs to bail them out occasionally in pass-protection or simply making plays out of nothing.  It’s probably good that there are still two O-line coaches in Rob Sale and Darnell Stapleton to try and mold an effective unit.  Austin Barber will move full-time to left tackle and is the best returning lineman.  The huge loss of Torrence is hopefully offset with getting the top guard in the portal in Micah Mazzccua from Baylor, but he is trying to return from shoulder surgery in the spring and may be playing through pain all season.  Kingsley Eguakun returns at center, but continues to struggle against bigger SEC DL.  Alabama transfer Damien George looks to have locked down the starting spot at right guard, while right tackle is still a battle between FIU transfer Lyndell Hudson and possibly George if the staff decides to slide Richie Leonard in at right guard.  There is actually some welcome depth among returning OL Jalen Farmer, Riley Simonds, and Jake Slaughter, along with true freshmen Roderick Kearney and Knijeah Harris.  The raw talent is there to eventually become a good SEC O-line, but the lack of experience and continuity will likely be an occasional problem this fall.

Defense

Well, so much for my thinking that 2022 could not be any worse (or just as bad) as 2021’s performance.  After all the talk of Patrick Toney being a young, rising defensive coordinator who was heavy into analytics and playing an aggressive scheme, all we saw on the field was mostly the same crap we had been subjected to by Todd Grantham.  Players not lined up properly or on time, poor tackling, and general confusion with the scheme – what an embarrassment.  Toney somehow was hired by the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals to be an assistant, and Napier did nothing to stop him – probably saving Toney the ignominy of getting demoted or fired for such a pitiful effort.  Good riddance – just another in a long line of analytics guys who think they are the smartest man in any room.  Now, Napier has REALLY rolled the dice and hired Austin Armstrong, the former DC at Southern Miss.  He was hired by Nick Saban to be a linebackers coach only months before Napier’s offer came and was too good to pass up.  At only 29 years old, Armstrong has a LOT to prove, and if he struggles it will reflect poorly on Napier.  Armstrong promises to run a similar scheme to Toney’s (scary) but with actual aggression, while allowing input from excellent position coaches Sean Spencer and Corey Raymond.  Imagine that – some humility.

The defensive line has more playmaking ability and quality depth than since 2019.  The loss of leader Gervon Dexter to the NFL will hurt, but Florida did very well in the portal, acquiring 2 quality DTs in Caleb Banks from Louisville and Cam Jackson from Memphis.  Both are huge, and should help shore up a weak interior rush defense.  Returning tackles Chris McClellan and Dez Watson will provide a solid rotation, with McClellan having the chance to be the best of the group after flashing as a true freshman last season.  Redshirt freshman Jamari Lyons and true freshman Will Norman will have opportunities to get meaningful reps as the season progresses.  The DE and Buck positions are well-stacked with talent and depth, but lack experience.  Princely Umanmielin is getting pre-season award notice and is the leader of the group. and the best pure pass-rusher.  Tyreak Sapp will be relied upon to shore up the edge against the run.  The loss of Justus Boone in fall camp to an ACL injury was a huge hit, though, and will force young guys into the SEC fray.  The best true freshman is Kelby Collins, who played very well in the Orange and Blue game and now has the opportunity to make himself known very early.  Kamran James and T.J. Searcy are other highly regarded freshmen that may have to contribute sooner than expected.  Jack Pyburn saw limited snaps last season backing up Boone but will now have to step up.  JUCO transfer Quincy Ivory also could be forced into more duty than expected.  Again, plenty of talent and depth, but precious little experience – this unit cannot afford any more serious injuries.  Coach Spencer is doing good work recruiting and developing this group.

The LB corps comes in with little depth and has to overcome the loss of 2 long-time starters to the NFL in Ventrell Miller and Amari Burney.  It’s now time to shine for Shemar James, a top-ranked recruit who gained valuable experience as a true freshman last season.  Scooby Williams and Trey Wingo are now in their 3rd year at Florida, and have to step up their level of play.  Florida also scored through the portal with Ohio St. transfer Teradja Mitchell and Michigan transfer Deuce Spurlock – both likely will play a lot and have to provide quality depth. Mannie Nunnery transferred in from Louisville and is highly-regarded as a special teams star and very good in pass coverage – something the LB corps struggled mightily with in 2022.  Overall this unit should be better, but is dangerously thin depth-wise.  Coaches Jay Bateman and MIke Peterson will earn their salaries this season.

The secondary was again hindered in 2022 by a terrible DC, and I can only hope Armstrong is self-aware and humble enough to allow Corey Raymond to show off his coaching skills this season.  There is more talent and depth here than in many years, and the potential is there to finally remind the rest of the SEC and country just how good a Gator secondary can be.

The CB rotation is talented, but lacks experience.  Jason Marshall is the leader and an all-SEC candidate in what likely is his final season in Gainesville.  Jalen Kimber and Jaydon Hill have experience and shown flashes, but now have to prove they are consistent players.  Devon Moore impressed in limited time as a freshman in 2022, but injuries then and now are limiting his time on the field – he will be relied upon heavily if healthy.  There are 3 highly-ranked true freshman recruits that have already made impressions either in spring or fall camp, and all 3 will get an early opportunity to play some significant snaps.  Sharif Denson, Ja’Keem Jackson, and Dijon Johnson all have good size and speed, and have shown playmaking ability.  Coach Raymond is the best in the business, and excited by this unit as a whole – that’s good enough for me.

The safety position is a real mystery – again.  There was plenty of experience in 2022, but precious little playmaking.  Trey Dean and Rashad Torrence are gone to the NFL, but they never produced consistently at a SEC level.  The 2023 group will have talent, but has scary-thin depth.  Kamari Wilson came in as the crown jewel of Napier’s first recruiting class and gained a lot of experience as a true freshman – it’s now his time to lead this group.  Miguel Mitchell is a big hitter who must improve in coverage.  Michigan transfer R.J. Moten is a Gator legacy and will be counted upon to provide smart play and a steadying hand.  Jadarrius Perkins is a senior who has been maddeningly inconsistent, and who might get some reps at the Star position.  Finally, 2 highly-regarded true freshmen – Jordan Castell and Bryce Thornton – could work their way into the rotation very early given the lack of depth.  Coach Raymond and DC Armstrong have some work to do to coach around this group if they struggle on the field due to injuries or poor play. 

Special Teams

The “Gamechangers” made a mockery of that title for most of 2022.  The overall performance was mediocre at best, with little excitement except for when Trevor Etienne was inserted for kickoff returns.  This entire group has to step up and show major improvement in order to help a team that has little room for error.

Adam Mihalek handled almost all of the FGs and XPs, and has likely won the job for 2023.  He performed pretty well as a first-year player in the SEC, but did miss some relatively easy FGs inside of 40 yards that impacted a few games.  I expect some improvement this season.  Trey Smack returns as well, and will again handle kickoffs.  He has the stronger leg and perhaps will get some opportunities on longer FGs, but hasn’t shown the accuracy or consistency of Mihalek.  The experience they gained in 2022 will help.  Punter Jeremy Crawshaw improved as last season wore on, and could be one of the better punters in the SEC in 2023.  He has good leg strength and athleticism, but still could be more consistent with hang time.  His Australian Rules football background certainly helps.

The kickoff return game was inept (again) until Etienne was put in as the kickoff returner.  He immediately injected some real juice and had some long returns that set up scoring chances for the offense.  I’m sure Napier would prefer not to have to use him at such a risky position, but until he has enough quality depth at the skill positions he doesn’t have much choice.  The nice haul of freshman WRs could provide a surprise source to improve punt returns, which have been dreadful for the most part of the past 8 seasons.  It remains a mystery who might get a chance right up until the start of the season, but I hope Eugene Wilson gets some reps.  He has elite quickness and change-of-direction, and this could get him on the field quickly to take advantage of his playmaking potential, as he will be learning at WR all year.

The group as a whole is more settled than going into 2022, which is a good thing.  I will say that I’m not a fan of Napier’s method of having multiple position coaches coach different aspects of special teams – I would much prefer he actually hired a dedicated special teams coach and had only one offensive line coach.  If special teams struggle again this season, he needs to seriously consider going in a different direction.

Schedule and Outlook

The 2023 schedule is again difficult, with another tough opener and the usual SEC grind.  There is no time for easing into the season – the staff and players will have to be ready immediately for a revenge-minded opponent on the road in game one and with scant room for error or poor play as the season progresses.

@Utah – Loss

So many questions for both teams, starting at QB.  Mertz for Florida, and will Cam Rising play for Utah coming off of an ACL injury suffered in the Rose Bowl?  His backup is out with an injury in fall camp, and they may be relying on QB3.  Still, it’s a road game against a well-coached team.  I’ll have to see the Gators actually play tough (and well) on the road first.

McNeese St – Win

The hope opener, which should allow the staff to get younger players some experience while playing what’s essentially a controlled scrimmage.  As usual in games like this – NO SERIOUS INJURIES is key.

Tennessee – Win

It might be blind faith, but I think the Gator defense will play with pride and purpose in this one after last year’s embarrassing effort offset the best performance of the offense in 2022.  They’ll likely have to, as I’m not counting on the offense to look completely functional yet.  A huge game for Napier to show the rest of the SEC that Florida is improving.

Charlotte – Win

Another chance for the Gators to play some backups after a tough game.  It also comes before an important road game at Kentucky – that’s sad to say.

@Kentucky – Loss

If Florida has lost at home to Tennessee before this one, the “noise in the system” will be ramped up.  The Gators have lost 3 out of the last 5 to the Mildcats, including 2 straight after rolling to 32 straight wins in the series.  Another big game for Napier to show his “plan” is working.

Vanderbilt (Homecoming) – Win

Florida should have enough motivation for this one, after the collapse in Nashville last season started the death spiral that ended 2022.  Vandy is still Vandy, and without some of their key players from last season.  The Gators need to put on a good show.

@South Carolina – Loss

The Lamecocks got embarrassed in Gainesville in 2022, and will have extra motivation.  I’ll still be on the “prove it” side for SEC road games until Florida and Napier show better.  It’s tough to see the Gators struggling against teams like this recently.

Bye Week

Georgia (Jacksonville) – Loss

Crazy things happen in rivalry games, but the talent and depth gaps are just too vast for the Gators to win this one.  A good showing and some tough play would help.  Florida really needs to show it’s on more level footing starting in 2024.

Arkansas – Win

This will be a much-needed win for the Gators.  Arkansas lost a lot off of last year’s team, but still have KJ Jefferson at QB, who’s a load as a runner.  Sam PIttman is a good coach who has his team ready to play.  If the SEC season has already gone poorly, this could be ugly.

@LSU – Loss

Florida has simply let L$U get into it’s head recently, and is not as talented or deep as the Tigers right now.  Death Valley is always one of the toughest places to play, and I don’t see the offense ready to carry the load it will need to in this environment.  It’s hard to believe Jayden Daniels could be one of the best two QBs in the entire SEC – what a down year for the league.

@Missouri – Win

The Gators could be in desperation mode by now, and will have to find a way to not lose to the interlopers of the SEC.  Eli Drinkwitz is a punk coach who has shot off his mouth too often about Florida.  Napier better win this one.

Florida $t. – Win

It may be a stretch at this point after the SEC grind has come to an end, but here’s hoping that Mertz is still upright and the defense has matured and has actually received some legitimate coordination from Armstrong by now.  The Criminoles are vastly overrated, propped up by last year’s soft schedule and fortunate wins to end 2022.  If Jordan Travis is still healthy and their starting QB, contain him in the pocket and actually tackle in open space for a change, and their offense will be in trouble.

Overall Record          7-5

SEC Record              4-4

2023 is a season with so many questions and variables that it is extremely difficult to predict with any level of certainty.  There is key turnover with players and coaches, and the schedule (as usual) will not allow the staff to hide any weaknesses nor have the luxury of an easy opener to get valuable reps and experience before things get real.  7 wins is actually optimistic compared to most predictions by other analysts and by our friends in Las Vegas, who have Florida’s win total over/under at 5.5.

Florida comes into the season with it’s best raw talent since 2020, but also a lot of inexperience and youth in the 2-deep roster.  There will be injuries as always, and can those unproven kids provide the level of play and depth needed both to compete against elite teams and also maintain a high level of play through the grind of a SEC schedule?  This staff has a LOT of work to do to cobble together both schemes and rotations that maximize what they have to work with.  If the offense can’t provide an effective passing game to move the chains and score efficiently, opponents will load up against the running game, and the defense will wear down as the season progresses.  At least this year’s team has the same staff and routine to work with, and there should be very little of the attitudes and friction caused by the Mullen holdovers.

Lots of new faces in key roles – again – and a lot to prove to themselves and the country – again.  You can’t hide in the SEC, and the good (or bad) will be exposed soon enough.  The season could go a lot of ways, and we’re about to see where.  With all of the uncertainty – especially at QB – I believe winning 7 games would be a successful season.  Anything above that would be a bonus – which is just another indictment of the current status of the program.  But, if injuries hit key players, it could be a tough road to get to even 6 wins.  It’s a shame it’s come to this.  Patience, which is in small supply in college football – especially in the SEC – will be needed as Florida continues the road back to legitimacy and competing for championships.

It’s that time again……Heeeeeeeeeeeere come the Gators!