The Bataan death march begins. Florida faces 4 consecutive Top 20 teams in the next 4 weeks, with 3 of them legitimate Playoff contenders as of this writing. First up are the Georgia Bulldogs, who are coming off of their best performance of the season, whipping Texas in Austin 2 weeks ago. This isn’t a vintage 2019-2023 Georgia team, but it’s still one of the best in the country, thanks to elite recruiting and the usual solid defense coached up by Kirby Smart. There are some weaknesses that can be exploited by top teams, but Florida isn’t one of them right now. Billy Napier continues to coach for his job, and this easily could be the (final) beginning of the end.
The Bulldog offense is led by QB Carson Beck. He has had some struggles this season both with accuracy and turnovers, but is still one of the better SEC QBs. Georgia’s running game – usually the strength of the team – has been inconsistent all season, as their O-line has taken a step back. Their leading rusher and recent starter is someone all too familiar with Gator Nation – Trevor Etienne. You can be sure Smart and Etienne would love to stick it to Florida, and you can bet they’ll try. Beck has 3 solid targets at WR – Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett, Arian Smith, and Dillon Bell, who he looks for in clutch situations. Florida’s secondary has shown improvement the past 3 games, and will be challenged much as it was in the opener against Miami. Most importantly, CB Jason Marshall is out for the season after injuring his shoulder in the first half against Kentucky. That’s a massive blow to the defense, despite the depth that position coach Will Harris has built up at cornerback. The Gator front seven has to find a way to at least get a stalemate at the line of scrimmage and not allow Georgia to run the ball consistently well, and force the Bulldogs to challenge the best unit of the defense, even without Marshall. If they allow Beck too much time in the pocket, though, it won’t matter how well the secondary plays.
On offense, the Gators will need to support DJ Lagway with some semblance of a running game, or else he’ll get eaten alive by an experienced and quality UGA defense. You can be assured that the Bulldogs are well aware of his ability to complete the deep ball, so expect the safeties to keep things in front of them and force Lagway to make multiple reads and check down to the short and intermediate zones – areas he has not exploited yet. Graham Mertz was able to get the TEs incorporated into the passing game, but they have disappeared with Lagway in the game, and that has to change. WRs Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike have developed into a strong duo, but no one has stepped up behind them. Tre Wilson is listed as out again, and there are rumors he won’t play again this season, or possibly ever for Florida again. Aiden Mizell broke out for one game against Mississippi St., but that’s it. The mystery continues – someone has to help. We will see if RB Montrell Johnson is available for the game, but even if he is, Jaden Baugh has to get his share of carries based on his recent play. This will be the biggest challenge Florida’s O-line has faced so far, as UGA has elite DEs led by Jalon Walker, and that group has been wrecking opponent passing games all season. OTs Austin Barber and Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson have to stand up to the pressure and give Lagway a chance to make plays, or else it’s gonna be another long afternoon in Jacksonville. There is little depth behind the starters for this game, as 3 backups with experience are out with injury. Can Napier get the TEs and RBs involved enough in the passing game to give Lagway some easy throws, keep possession, sustain drives, and cover for the thin O-line? I’m not confident. This Bulldog defense is solid, but a step below recent seasons, including a lack of turning the ball over. I hope that continues.
Georgia has everything to play for coming in, and Kirby Smart will have his team ready, as he hates Florida much the same way that Steve Spurrier hates the Bulldogs. There’s just no way he or his team will overlook this game, and the Gators don’t have the overall talent or winning experience to hold up in this matchup. It will take Florida’s best offensive performance of the season, along with winning the turnover battle, to have a chance at the upset…..and I just don’t see it happening. I’d love to be wrong.
Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1
Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 or 2 (loss or win)
Prediction:
Georgia 34
Florida 17