It was a shockingly good Homecoming for Florida, as the Gators neutered the Mildcats 48-20 in front of a happy and relieved crowd at The Swamp.  After losing to this inferior program for 3 straight seasons, a sense of normalcy was restored into the series as it was the Gators’ opponent for a change left wondering what happened and in disarray after a big road loss.

This game provided a glimpse – however brief – into the possible future for the Gator offense.  Injuries forced Billy Napier to start DJ Lagway at QB and Jaden Baugh at RB, and both delivered in a big way.  Lagway completed only 7 of 14 passes, but totaled a whopping 259 yards with a series of deep strikes that gutted UK’s secondary.  Baugh tied the Florida freshman record with 5 TD runs, while showing strength and will in breaking many tackles along with plenty of yards after contact while piling up 112 yards.  Elijhah Badger again was the leader of the WR corps with 148 yards on just 3 receptions.  Lagway’s ability to run obviously helped to open up the running game, and his deep throws forced Kentucky to back off of the line of scrimmage – what a novel concept!  I’d still like to see the TEs incorporated more to help sustain drives, but hopefully, that comes with experience.

The Gator defense continued it’s recent run of improved play, holding the Mildcats to 317 yards of total offense – much of which came in garbage time.  Only 1 sack was recorded, but the front seven had consistent pressure into the backfield most of the night, forcing Brock Vandagriff into some hurried throws and also not allowing Kentucky to control the game on the ground, as it had been able to do the previous 3 games.  DTs Caleb Banks and Cam Jackson controlled the interior, while Jack Pyburn set the edge and made several big tackles – showing he’s finally 100% healthy after last years’ ACL injury suffered in the final game against F$U.  The Florida secondary also had a solid game with some tight coverage, pass breakups, and getting 3 interceptions in a single game for the first time in ages.  That tied last season’s total – which shows how terrible last year’s defense truly was.  Aaron Gates played his best game to date at the STAR position, making plays all over the field.  Devon Moore showed why he’s always been highly thought of as a CB with good coverage all evening.  Trikweze Bridges made his statement for a starting role at safety, totaling 11 tackles and flying all over the field.  Even Cormani McClain came to real life from his picture on the side of a milk carton, making a nice break on the ball for a pick 6 and an even better trail technique play to tip away a sure TD pass.  The only sour note was a potentially big one, however – Jason Marshall left the game right before the half with what appears to be at least a separated shoulder, putting his availability in question for the huge tests coming up on the schedule.

The questions being asked now are: Were injuries to Graham Mertz and Montrell Johnson the only reason we finally got to see Lagway and Baugh get to start against a legitimate opponent? (yes).  Why haven’t we seen this number of deep throws more often in the offense? (Mertz simply wasn’t capable of it).  Why haven’t we seen this level of aggression from the defense from the start of the season? (coaching malpractice).  For all of the deserved criticism leveled at Napier for 2 1/2 seasons and more than ever in 2024, the players obviously haven’t quit playing for each other and have shown legitimate improvement in the past 3 games.  I can only hope that continues.

Florida gets its second bye week of the season now before traveling to Jacksonville to renew hostilities with Georgia.  The Bulldogs will be coming off of a massive road win at then-#1 Texas, and look terrific on defense – again.  I’ll be back next week with my preview of the game.  For now……Go Gators!

It was there for the taking.  All Billy Napier had to do was keep it simple and make smart play calls to pull off the upset and take maybe a little pressure off of himself.  The defense (and an overrated Nico Iamaleava) had given Florida multiple opportunities to build a big early lead and get a much-needed rivalry win.  But Napier is gonna Napier, and along with an unfortunate knee injury to Graham Mertz that has ended his season, he literally fumbled away the opportunity and showed – again – why he’s incapable of being a successful SEC head coach.  And so the drumbeat for his firing remains deafening while a seemingly tone-deaf UAA and AD allow the program to continue to be torn down.

The Gator defense played perhaps it’s best game of Napier’s tenure, repeatedly getting off the field early, actually getting into the backfield to disrupt both run and pass plays on occasion, and make Iamaleava look bad in the process.  Jason Marshall had another excellent game in coverage.  The DEs set the edge and applied pressure on the QB, getting 3 sacks and 8 TFL.  The interior D-line held up for the most part, not allowing the multiple long runs up the middle that plagued this defense all season.  The LBs, especially Pup Howard, tackled pretty well in open space.  Even when the Gator offense started to collapse in the second half after Mertz left the game, they repeatedly stood up and gave the offense another opportunity to score.  This is what can happen when you win on first and second down, and actually force the opponent into must-pass situations.

The Florida offense looked functional and efficient with Mertz at the helm the entire first half.  They rolled up over 200 yards with a good mix of run vs. pass.  Mertz especially knows how to incorporate the TEs into the passing game, and hurt Tennessee with it.  The running game was having some success off tackle and outside.  However……Napier’s situational playcalling was horrendous.  Watching the Gators march into the Volunteer red zone 4 times in the first half, only to come away with a 3-0 halftime lead. was inexcusable.  Getting stuffed on the first 3rd-and-1 that led to a short FG and early lead was bad enough.  But Rural Meyer was just getting warmed up.  Then came the stops on both 3rd- and 4th-and-1, the latter on an ill-advised sweep play that was poorly blocked.  Then, to really add insult to injury, the failed 1st-and-goal play from the 1-yard line – a QB sneak by Mertz that he fumbled – instead of letting Montrell Johnson finish a drive where he was running successfully.  Even subbing in DJ Lagway to make The Vols honor his running ability would have helped.  You can’t make this sh*t up, even when playing a board game like Strat-O-Matic.  Mertz finally led a TD drive in the 3rd quarter and capped it off with a nice touch pass to Arlis Boardingham, but he had already sustained a torn ACL a few plays earlier on a scramble for a first down, and had gutted it out until then.  Then, even with Napier’s terrible calls leading to a 3rd-and-17 with 39 seconds left in regulation, Lagway climbed up into the pocket and threw a laser to Chimere Dike on a slant route for the possible tying or winning TD. That’s when Napier showed everyone – again – his lack of aggression and killer instinct, settling for the tying extra point.  Finally, the offensive series in overtime was truly offensive.  A telegraphed run play on first down, a telegraphed screen play on second down that was horribly executed and lost 5 yards, and finally a telegraphed third down draw play that everyone knew would be called, setting up a long FG attempt that Trey Smack missed wide right.  Absolutely brutal.

Special Teams were ‘Gamechangers’ once again – for the wrong reasons.  Dike’s excellent punt returns were not enough to offset a 12 men on the field penalty that erased a successful FG at the end of the first half, a few short punts from Jeremy Crawshaw, and then Smack’s missed FG attempt in overtime.  I guess someone must have sabotaged Napier’s 11-spot Twister mat he incorporated for the ‘Gamechangers”, to try and prevent that idiocy from happening again.  That allowed Tennessee to go into their OT possession knowing they only needed to not go backwards or turn the ball over in order to at a minimum have an easy FG attempt for the win.  At that point you could almost see the shoulders of the defense finally collapse, as Tennessee easily scored in 4 quick plays to steal the win.  Another rivalry game – another loss.  It’s all part of the “plan”.

Florida now limps back to The Swamp for it’s Homecoming date with Kentucky.  The Mildcats were talking proud coming into this season, but have been put back into their rightful place as middle-of-the-pack fodder.  Sadly, that’s right where the Gators are now, along with South Carolina and UK – traditional mediocre programs going nowhere.  Kentucky is coming off a home loss to Vanderbilt, who right now is playing better than any of those 3 programs.  Mark Stoops briefly considered taking the Texas A&M job he was offered in the offseason, and foolishly returned to Lexington, which angered what football fan base they have and had to impact the team’s motivation somewhat.

Kentucky’s offense is still predicated on it’s running game, despite adding what they thought would be a big upgrade at QB in Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff.  The Mildcats are 114th in the country in scoring, and the passing game has struggled to gain any consistency or explosiveness.  In fact, Vandagriff has been forced to run the ball much more than they hoped, and has taken a lot of punishment in doing so while being second on the team in carries behind Demie Sumo, who is by far their leading rusher.  Dane Key is their favored WR, and Marshall again gets the chance to shut down another good WR while adding to his fast-improving NFL Draft resume.  Despite all of their offensive problems, you can bet that Stoops will still try to hammer away at a soft Gator interior run defense as long as possible, to shorten the game and make it another ugly, low-scoring affair that favors his team.  And Napier is the perfect person to try it against, as he’s most comfortable playing his “complementary football”, with slow, time-consuming drives that often lead to little or no points.

The Mildcats are relying heavily on their defense, which is 9th in the country in points allowed per game and has stood up repeatedly when forced into bad situations by their offense.  Sounds depressingly familiar, and if only Florida could say the same of it’s own defense since the start of 2022.  UK has shut down every team they have played to date, which bodes ill for a true freshman QB being coached up by Napier.  Yards and explosive plays will be tough to come by, and Lagway is going to have to play a safer game than he would like to.  He’ll also have to protect himself more than usual, as he’s now the starter the remainder of the season.  That takes away a lot of the running dimension he would normally bring to the game, and now he’ll have to improve his reading of coverages and accuracy even quicker.  This all will unfortunately fall right into Napier’s wheelhouse of conservatism so I’m expecting little creativity or scheme changes even with a much more athletic QB with a stronger arm.

So, instead of coming home off of an inspiring rivalry win and with some real momentum and 3 straight victories, Napier again gives Gator Nation another gut punch or, more accurately, another kick in the groin, and shows again why he’s in over his head and literally stealing money from the University of Florida.  There is zero chance he will change or improve, and the inevitable lingers on as we have to watch him remain on the sidelines for now.  Another bye week awaits after this game, and again that would be a good time to fire him, but the UAA and AD are gonna ride or die with Basement Billy, it seems.  I’m picking Florida to win only because this is a home game.  As much as I’d love for Lagway to rack up big numbers in an exciting win and give hope for the future, I’ve seen too much in the past 31 games to expect it.  A loss wouldn’t surprise me, but would still be another bitter pill to swallow for Gator Nation.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 (win or loss)

Prediction:

Florida 23

Kentucky 20

Well, at least Gator fans can crawl out of their rural Central Florida basements and not worry about hearing trash talk from UCF Golden Showers, er, Golden Knight fans.  Florida controlled the game from start to finish with a workmanlike 24-13 win that wasn’t as close as the final score.  Sadly despite the win, this game epitomized just another reason Billy Napier shouldn’t continue as head coach.  Just like last year’s Tennessee game at The Swamp, he pulled in the reins after a very good first half and essentially decided to hold on to a big lead and went into a shell.  This isn’t the attitude of a big-time, winning program, and it sucked the life out of the team and fans during a tedious second half of football.

Florida’s offense did some good things in the first half, especially in the passing game.  Both Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway spread the ball around and forced UCF’s defense to defend more than just a 5-yard window surrounding the line of scrimmage.  Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike made some big plays, and freshman Tank Hawkins received extended snaps due to injuries to Tre Wilson and Aiden Mizell and showed some speed and quickness in the open field.  The running game was solid, if unspectacular, picking up key first downs to extend drives and controlling time of possession.  Then……the Napier Effect took hold, and the next 30 minutes became an interminable watch until the game ended.  This was the opportunity to let the offense stretch out for 60 minutes and cash in some additional scores for a big win, but Napier seemingly won’t allow it.

The Gator defense looked improved against the run, but I still don’t know how much of that is based upon the quality of the opponent.  The front seven did occasionally get pressure on KJ Jefferson, and showed again why he’s mostly a TE playing QB.  UCF’s passing game sucked, and Gus Malzahn simply can’t seem to develop an efficient passing game no matter where he coaches.  Once Jefferson had to come off of his first read, he was dead in the water, and either took a sack or had to throw the ball away.  CB Jason Marshall again made his case of all-SEC honors, shutting down Kobe Hudson all night.  The Knights still pushed the Gator D-line back too often for me to declare a permanent step forward for the defense just yet, however.

Now it’s on the Rocky Top to face Tennessee, who is coming off of a stunning upset loss at Arkansas.  After some blowout wins against easy competition, they were punched in the mouth by the Razorbacks and didn’t look good trying to fight for 60 minutes.  I was hoping they’d come into this game overlooking the Gators and perhaps come out flat, but I’m afraid that won’t be the case now.

What looked like a huge mismatch of the Vol offense vs. the Gator defense may be offset somewhat by injuries to their 3 top WRs and their #2 RB.  The possible impact to their efficiency won’t be known until the game starts, but it appears WR Squirrel White (what a perfect name for a Tennessee player) may miss the game with a broken hand, while Bru McCoy and Chris Brazzell will both play at less than 100%.  Despite all the attention given to Tennessee’s fast-paced offense and passing game, many forget their running game is very good, led by Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop.  Both average over 6 yards per carry and have good speed, and unless the Florida front seven at least slows them down, it will be another long night for the Gators.  QB Nico Iamaleava has had some moments so far, but lately is starting to look like the freshman he is as more film becomes available on him.  He is struggling to read defenses that give him multiple looks, but can Florida DC Ron Roberts actually put together a comprehensive, quality game plan?   I suspect Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel will lean on the running game early and often, forcing the Gators to prove they can at least slow down a quality team while giving his young QB a comfort zone without placing him in many must-pass scenarios.  The he will try to strike with some deep shots in his up-tempo offense.

The Volunteers come into the game with a top-5 ranked defense that has a lot of speed, but I will say that it’s ranking is as much a result of playing outmanned opponents, including an Arkansas team that beat them with a freshman backup QB getting most of the snaps last week.  It appears the Gator offense will continue to run it’s 2 QB rotation, with Mertz getting 2 series to 1 for Lagway……at least until Napier proves he’ll actually ride the hot hand.  I expect Tennessee to load up the box and force Florida to win by passing the ball, which is the usual and expected game plan from any Gator opponent.  I did like the fact that Florida ran more 3- and 4-WR looks and less 2 TE sets against UCF, and it’s my hope that continues.  Badger, Dike, and hopefully some combination of Mizell/Hawkins/Wilson (depending on injury status) are capable of some big plays downfield if given the opportunity.  I’m sure Napier will want (as always) to control the game by running the football, but he likely will have to get out of his comfort zone and reverse tendencies by throwing a lot more on early downs, and more often than usual.  

Unfortunately, Tennessee’s loss at Arkansas likely refocuses their players and Florida will face a motivated, angry team.  It’s been hard enough for Napier and the Gators to play competitively on the road against good teams during his tenure, and I’m afraid that if Florida falls behind early by multiple scores (again), that as usual neither the offense nor playcaller are equipped to overcome that.  IF……if the Gators can somehow withstand the expected early emotional onslaught from the Volunteers or shockingly take an early lead, perhaps the pressure starts to affect Iamaleava and he makes some critical mistakes.  There’s no evidence in 2+ seasons that a Napier team is capable of it, though, and the road struggles likely continue until proven otherwise.  If the Gators can stay close by halftime things could get interesting in the second half, but I don’t see it happening.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 2

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 (loss)

Prediction:

Tennessee 38

Florida 17

It’s back to work for the Gators, as they welcome the UCF Knights to the Swamp after a bye week.  The win over Mississippi St. did little to assuage the critics of Billy Napier and his entire program, and the weekly execution vigil restarts with the Sword of Damocles ready to fall at any moment.

Florida’s offense needs to be ready to score early and often.  UCF’s defense was exposed (again) by a team with a pulse in Colorado, getting roasted for 48 points in a blowout home loss last week.  I’m sure Napier will wish to play his usual “complimentary football” and control the clock with the running game, but that likely won’t be enough as the Gator defense has shown no inclination to actually play it.  Yes, balance is needed, but the Gator QBs have to attack a weak secondary and allow it’s receivers to make plays downfield.  WRs Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike have been steady, but I hope Aiden Mizell has finally found his footing after a breakout performance at MSU and contributes more explosive plays.  The TEs have been missing for much of 2024, and they need to get involved.  Napier says he will “stick to the plan” regarding the QB rotation – whatever that means.  Allegedly there were good practices and “improvement” by the O-line during the bye week, but I remain skeptical.  The playcalling needs to stay aggressive for 60 minutes.

The Florida defense had better be ready to do something it hasn’t all season – at least slow down an opponent’s running game.  UCF comes in with one of the best rushing attacks in the country (albeit against some weaker competition), with RB RJ Harvey leading the way.  He’s a tough runner with some power and decent speed, and has to be contained.  QB KJ Jefferson transferred to UCF from Arkansas, and is no stranger to the Gators.  He led an improbable upset win last season at the Swamp, mostly by running wild in the second half and overtime.  Maybe……maybe this time around the defensive coordinator will learn to spy him and force him to play more as a pocket passer, where he struggles.  UCF’s offense under Gus Malzahn is his usual recipe – pound the run, including a generous number of carries by the QB, and then try to either hit a long pass over the top or slip a RB out into the flat or on a wheel route isolated on a LB.  It’s not complicated, but apparently even simplicity is often too hard to comprehend for Florida’s run of crap coordinators.  Kobe Hudson is the Knights’ big-play WR, so I expect Jason Marshall to be covering him all evening.  Jefferson will struggle in must-pass situations, and that’s where the defense can actually get the ball back for the offense on occasion.

Make no mistake – this is UCF’s biggest game of the season, despite being fortunate to fall into a conference upgrade to the Big 12.  Malzahn will treat this game like it’s the Super Bowl for them, and he’ll throw everything into the game plan.  It’s going to be interesting to see how many Knight “fans” are in the Swamp for this one.  Sadly, I expect a good turnout considering the poor play of the Gators turning off it’s fan base and UCF “fans” buying up secondary market tickets anywhere they can because of the close proximity of Orlando to Gainesville.

Napier had better find a way to show some fire and have his team play with some urgency, or else this will be the last of a long line of embarrassments that leads to his firing.  I’m expecting a wild, unpredictable ebb-and-flow of emotions and momentum during the game, and a high-scoring affair.  This game could wind up looking a lot like last year’s game at South Carolina, where Napier was forced by the opponent into a shootout.  Many Gator fans are resigned to a loss, but I’m gonna go down in flames by predicting a close win and another stay of execution for Napier until perhaps Florida gets run out of the stadium next week at Tennessee.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 0 (loss), DEFCON 1 or 2 (win)

Prediction:

Florida 38

UCF 35

Florida was able to get a much-needed win against Mississippi St., beating the Bulldogs 45-28.  It wasn’t pretty, especially for the defense (again), but I’m happy for the players to taste some success against an SEC opponent – no matter how bad the situation is in Starkville right now.

The Gator offense actually got off to a rare fast start and never looked back, overwhelming a depleted MSU defense with a balanced attack that rolled up over 500 yards.  Graham Mertz got the start at QB and looked the part, going 19-21 for 201 yards and 3 TDs, briefly reverting back to his 2023 form.  DJ Lagway was solid for his scripted series, going 7-7 and running for a score.  The running game rolled up 226 yards, led by Montrell Johnson, but I have to say that both Treyaun Webb and Jaden Baugh simply look more explosive and quicker in their cuts than Johnson.  Napier is going to stick with his guy who came with him from Louisiana 3 years ago, but I’d be hard-pressed not to get the younger guys more carries.  Elijhah Badger continues to impress at WR, and Hayden Hansen is far and away the best TE right now – he had a nice TD reception on a seam route, and is a great blocker.  The revelation of the game was the performance of WR Aiden Mizell – why hasn’t this kid been getting steady reps from the start of the season?  He has game-breaking speed and moves……yet this staff seems to reward seniority or play favorites.  Just another example of roster mismanagement.  The injury to Tre Wilson may actually unlock Mizell for the rest of the season.  I can only hope that Brendan Crenshaw-Dickson is the starting RT going forward – he at least looked serviceable.  Austin Barber had his best game at LT this season and was named SEC OL of the Week.  Kam Waites looked much better at RG than RT.  Now……if only Napier and his 2 OL coaches would start playing the best 5 OL and limit the rotations.  Finally, Florida also was able to convert on 6 of 9 3rd downs, which has been a huge problem up until now, being ranked near the bottom in the entire country.

All of that positive news from the offense was needed, as the Gator defense again struggled, even against an outmanned opponent.  The Gators were gashed for 240 yards on the ground, oftentimes yielding big runs right through the heart of the defense.  The DTs simply can’t seem to figure out how to play proper gaps or control the LOS……or maybe they just aren’t that good.  Not having freshman Michael Boireau available due to injury should not be a reason for this unit to continue to be pushed around, but it seems that between the poor scheme and apparent lack of talent, things aren’t going to improve all season.  This is going to be a huge problem, as the Gator offense isn’t going to produce like this against better teams and isn’t built to outscore opponents when necessary.  The secondary had it’s moments, breaking up a lot of passes with close coverage.  Sharif Denson received extended snaps at the STAR position and played relatively well, less a critical red zone pass interference penalty that set up a MSU touchdown.  CB Jason Marshall was outstanding,  playing tight coverage and forcing the Bulldogs to look elsewhere for completions.  Unfortunately, the middle of the field continues to be fertile ground for any team to exploit, as the safety play under the coaching of Austin Armstrong remains abysmal.  He already lost his job calling the defense, and why he’s allowed to draw a paycheck at this point is criminal.  

This win seems to guarantee that Napier will still be the head coach in two weeks when the Gators return home to face UCF.  It’s game-to-game for him at this point, and much of Gator Nation won’t be thrilled that he’s still employed.  Florida (and especially Napier) was very fortunate to play such a weakened opponent and get a victory, but the barbarians are at the gate, and it’s only a matter of time.  I’ll be back next week with my UCF game preview.

It’s over.  Billy Napier’s tenure as Florida head football coach is done, and deservedly so.  The only question is when he will be exiled to the basement (hopefully with no power, plumbing, or internet), where he has put a once-proud program.

It was another exercise in futility and frustration at the Swamp, as the Gators allowed a backup QB making his first start on short notice look like a seasoned veteran.  The defense was literally run over for close to 600 yards and 300+ yards rushing by a pedestrian Texas A&M offense.  Included was a 99-yard drive to end the 1st half, in which the Gators – as usual – gave up easy 3rd-and-long conversions.  Ron Roberts’ defense even managed to outdo itself by letting A&M off the hook after 2 concurrent penalties gave the Aggies a 1st-and-35 back near midfield with a little over 1 minute left.  A targeting call on the next play gave the Aggies a gift 1st down along with Trikwese Bridges being ejected.  It was a terrible call, but one that bad teams often get.  A&M subsequently scored, and it was 20-0 at the half and the team and fans were both deflated.  And for consistency’s sake, the middle if the field remains open for any offense or level of QB to complete passes with impunity.  There’s really no reason to try and dig deeper into the schematic or talent reasons why at this point.  It’s the same scheme run by a 3rd different person in 3 seasons, with the same sorry-ass results – the definition of insanity.  

Basement Billy again showed his total lack of feel for calling a game and adjusting to it’s ebbs and flows, clumsily alternating QBs Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway all afternoon as the offense struggled to gain any momentum or consistency.  Mertz was pulled after missing an easy 3rd-down throw on the first series, Lagway came in and looked like a true freshman the next series, and from there it went from bad to worse.  Mertz actually had one good series to start the 2nd half, leading a TD drive and making some good downfield throws, including a TD pass to Elijhah Badger.  That made the score 20-7 and gave the Gators and their fans a fleeting hope.  But of course, Rural Meyer pulled him for Lagway on the next series, and any momentum gained was lost.  Napier’s handling of the QB rotation was an abject failure – a microcosm of his entire tenure as head coach at Florida.  While all of this was happening, it certainly did nothing to help a defense getting punked (again), this time by a mediocre Aggie O-line and skill players.  They were allowed to control possession and the clock, wear down the Gator defense, and limit possessions for Florida’s offense.  The Gator running game was stuffed for the most part – Montrell Johnson looked indecisive, and the only RB who had any juice was Treyaun Webb, who likely earned himself more carries with a handful of good gains……unless Florida’s fearful leader continues his mystifying rotation of players.  It was both comical and maddening to (again) sit in the stands with other long-time fans and predict the play calls with certainty – pass on 1st down, run on 2nd down, and then throw short of the sticks on 3rd down.

Napier was booed off the field at halftime and after the game mercifully ended…..and deservedly so.  Even the elements seemed to want to extend Gator Nation’s misery, with a 45 minute weather delay between the 1st and 2nd quarters (with no visible lightning and no rain) that just delayed the inevitable.  The rain waited until play resumed – right on schedule……LMFAO.  As of now Scott Stricklin and the UAA predictably have not fired Napier.  His hang-dog face and loser aura will continue to be in the building and on the sidelines for at least another week, just frustrating Gator Nation even more and not giving the players a fair chance at success.

This week, Florida goes on the road to the aptly-named Starkville to play Mississippi St.  It’s “The ‘Battle for the Basement’ of the SEC.  The Bulldogs are off to a very rough start of their own.  They lost their former head coach, Mike Leach, who passed away suddenly from a heart attack right after the 2022 regular season ended, struggled through a poor 2023 with an interim head coach, and now have their 3rd head coach in less than 2 years with Jeff Lebby coming in from successful stints as OC at Oklahoma and before that Mississippi.  They endured a massive roster turnover and are implementing new offensive and defensive schemes, and have struggled mightily so far in 2024.  MSU is coming off of a brutal and embarrassing loss at home last week to Toledo, 41-17, which has shaken their fan base.  But, who knows?  Perhaps the Florida Gators are their get-well medicine……yeesh.

Napier says he is sticking with the QB rotation, so who knows who gets snaps and when, and if it will even matter if he can’t figure out how to go with the hot hand and stop with any pre-planned series for each.  Florida should be able to rediscover at least some of it’s running game, which would serve the conservative Napier just fine.  WR Tre Wilson is out indefinitely after meniscus surgery to his knee, and Tank Hawkins will play but is hobbled as well.  I’ve given up on anyone providing productive snaps at receiver other than Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, so I would feed those guys all afternoon.  The Gator defense may actually match up better this week physically than for most of the remaining schedule.  Lebby’s offense is fast-paced and likes to spread the field, and Florida’s defense is smaller and quicker at the edges and has speed at LB and in the secondary, so they shouldn’t be manhandled at the line of scrimmage as usual.  Florida is down 2 DTs for this game – Joey Slackman after meniscus surgery and freshman DT Michael Boireau with an undisclosed injury, so here’s hoping Caleb Banks, Cam Jackson, and the rest of the defense can get off the field more often than usual and not tire in the 2nd half.  The secondary will be challenged, but should be able to hold up for the most part.  It would be nice to see the front seven actually get pressure on QB Blake Shapen, but they could be frustrated by the quick-passing attack.  If they can get him off of his first read, they should have success making stops.  The Bulldog running game hasn’t impressed so far, but Florida’s defense seems to make anyone look good.  The Gators have to slow the running game and force MSU into passing situations, where they can use their talent advantage. 

It’s an 11am local kickoff for this game – perfect for the interest that won’t be shown for it.  Maybe Florida can take advantage of a reeling Bulldog team, but that would require a fast start and aggression – traits not seen by a Napier-coached team.  As bad as the roster is by Gator standards, Florida is still the more talented team and is using schemes they are familiar with – no matter how bad they might be.  If Florida gets an early lead, I could see MSU thinking “here we go again” and folding, but I could also see an ugly, sluggish first half from both teams that would just give the Bulldogs and their fans hope they could steal a win.  Despite Basement Billy’s 2-10 road record and his program’s own desperation, I’m going to say Florida wins this game, which is good and bad……good for the players, but bad for Gator Nation as Napier will remain on the sidelines for Florida’s return home to face UCF after a bye week.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 0 (imaginary, like Napier’s chances of survival with a loss); DEFCON 1 (win)

Prediction:

Florida 31

Mississippi St. 20

Florida got mostly what it wanted out of the Samford game with an easy 45-7 win.  DJ Lagway went almost the entire way at QB, showing off his arm strength with some excellent deep throws for scores while avoiding the rush when needed with his mobility.  Most of the depth chart received snaps, and the outcome was never in doubt, despite some ugly plays (and play calls) in the first half.

The O-line is going to be an issue all year.  Even against Samford they struggled at times opening holes for the running game or protecting Lagway.  The weird substitution patterns persist, and the best 5 guys aren’t playing together enough to develop cohesion – just poor management from both Billy Napier and Rob Sale.  WRs Elijhah Badger and Tre Wilson had big games, and Lagway’s ability to throw accurate deep balls allowed Aiden Mizell and Tank Hawkins to score on long plays.  Once again, Wilson was a forgotten man for the entire first half, then when utilized he broke off big gains.  The TEs still aren’t contributing much in the passing game, which is both surprising and troubling.  Both Gator QBs need some sort of quick outlet when under pressure.

The Gator defense had success most of the night, but still showed flaws defending the running game and a mobile QB.  Some young DL like freshman Michael Boireau received extended snaps, and frankly, looked better than guys like Des Watson.  LB Shemar James got dinged early on and is already playing through multiple injuries this early in the season – not a good sign for making it through such a challenging schedule.  The depth chart is so thin behind him, though, that he’s forced into playing extended snaps and not being given enough rest.  The pass rush was somewhat better, but again, it seems that was mostly due to the opponent.  The secondary had a good night, but that was mostly a reflection of how poor Samford’s passing game was.

I’m not going to put much stock into this result.  Samford was outmanned, and yet still had too many moments of moving the ball against the Gator defense and being able to get some pressure with it’s pass rush against a poor Gator O-line.  There was marginal improvement along both sides of the LOS for Florida with some personnel changes, but there’s a long way to go to compete against a schedule that’s only going to get much more difficult.

Next up for Florida is Texas A&M, who the Gators will face for the 4th time already since they joined the SEC in 2012.  The Aggies began their season with a disappointing home loss to Notre Dame, which in turn lost at home last week to Northern Illinois of all teams, rubbing salt into the wounds of the A&M fan base.  There has been a LOT of change in College Station since last season – firing Dumbo Fishey, roster turnover, and a new head coach in Mike Elko.  Elko had a successful stint at Duke, and has coached in the state of Texas previously for many years at various jobs.  He’s a defensive-minded coach first, and it’s already shown in just 2 games, as their defense has looked much improved.  The Aggies paid for a lot of talent the past 3 seasons, and it appears Elko may finally get some payoff from it.  Florida’s offense is going to have a tough time if it tries to grind out time-consuming, extended drives against a stout front seven.  As much as it’s against Napier’s nature to play a ball-control offense, it’s going to take some deep shots and lower-percentage plays to make things easier for a struggling O-line and unsettled QB situation.  Napier has named Graham Mertz as the starter – not surprising given his loyalty to Mertz, but also causing some consternation in Gator Nation, who recognize Lagway’s physical gifts and also realize that this season may be a lost one and want the young guy to get all the experience he can.  It will be a balancing act for Napier based upon the flow of the game, the score, and of course how well Mertz starts out, but there’s nothing Napier has shown in 2+ seasons to provide evidence he has a feel for the game flow, so it could get ugly.  The O-line will have to show massive improvement in both run- and pass-blocking.  The skill players are more than capable of making plays, but only if given the opportunity.  Napier has to know his job is on the line nearly week-to-week now, so I can only hope he, along with Russ Callaway, make necessary changes and are ready.

Texas A&M has their own problems on offense, and those problems mirror Florida’s.  They have a solid running game led by Le’Veon Moss, and I expect a heavy dose of carries from him.  Their QB is Conner Weigman, who came in with a lot of hype 2 years ago and hasn’t delivered to date.  He’s inaccurate, and, while showing some occasional scrambling ability, isn’t a significant running threat.  Their WR corps is led by Cyrus Allen, but that group has not exhibited big-play capability, which has hampered their offense.  Knowing Elko’s coaching background as a defense-first guy, and seeing what their offense can (and can’t) do, this looks like it could be a lower-scoring game than some expect, and stay close until the last possession.  The Gator defense needs to be ready for a physical running game.  The secondary will need to include a lot of man-to-man coverage, so the front seven can commit to stopping the run.  If they can force the Aggies into a lot of 3rd down situations, they could generate some turnovers or at least give the Gator offense more possessions.

Gator Nation is beyond impatient for some sustained success, including winning home games against legitimate teams.  The howls for Napier to be fired are being heard loud and clear by the UAA, and there’s only one way to alleviate some of the noise – start winning games.  Could this be Napier’s last home game as head coach?  It very well could be with another loss and a bye week after the next game.  Florida matches up better against Texas A&M than against Miami, but that’s still not terribly comforting based on the level of play shown so far.  The Swamp crowd is gonna get restless very early on unless the Gators come out fast.  For now, I’m afraid that the Aggie defense, combined with Napier’s struggles on game days, doesn’t bode well for Florida.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 (loss); DEFCON 2 (win)

Prediction:

Texas A&M 24

Florida 20

I tried.  I really tried.

I looked at the recruiting rankings of the new players, I studied the resumes of the new coaches,  I evaluated how the portal transfers would fit into the roster/depth chart.  I listened to the carefully-crafted “message” coming out of PRAVDA, er, the UAA, and press conferences from Billy Napier.  I did all of that, and despite what my eyes told me the past 2 seasons, I picked Florida to win on Saturday and projected a 7-win season.

As I type this from my rural Central Florida basement, I realize I was conned.  Conned by Napier himself and the “message”.  What I saw in person at the Swamp was a dereliction of duty, the same unproductive, unimaginative offense, and the same defensive scheme run by the “Godfather” of that scheme, Ron Roberts.  Well, it’s time for both of them to find a horse head in their bed, because it’s over for Basement Billy, and I wonder if this coaching staff can coax even 4 or 5 wins out of this team.  The coaching is terrible except for maybe the RBs under Jabbar Juluke and the CBs under Will Harris.  And all of the talk about how the talent level of the roster has been elevated is highly in question, because I witnessed a horrific O-line, a soft, weak front seven on defense, and the same mistake-filled safety play repeated from the previous 3 seasons. 

The only things I liked from the offense were that there were a decent number of passes thrown to the intermediate and deep zones, and the long TD run by Montrell Johnson on one of the VERY few plays that were blocked well by the O-line.  Contrary to popular opinion, Graham Mertz actually had a clean pocket for most of the 1st half, but showed his limitations, again.  He proved inaccurate beyond 6-8 yards past the line of scrimmage, and was continually late on deeper passes.  It was by far his worst game as a Gator, and killed any chance of keeping the game even close.  To cap off a miserable day, he missed a TD with his interception in the 4th quarter, and his lack of mobility also contributed to his incurring a concussion on the same play.  The O-line did none of the skill players any favors, looking weak and disorganized most of the afternoon.  The right side of the line was a disaster, imitating a sieve.  Napier and Rob Sale seemed to treat this game as a scrimmage, rolling in different combinations even when there were a few decent plays executed – no stability or continuity.  Why Sale has a job is a mystery now, as he hasn’t recruited nor developed even a decent line or improved any of his players for over 2 years now.  Sadly, he’ll be around as long as Napier, which likely isn’t much longer.  Elijhah Badger looked far and away the best WR, as he was open all day, but Mertz couldn’t deliver consistently.  Tre Wilson was misused once again, mostly on bubble screens and short routes around the LOS.  The TEs were ignored in the playcalling for some reason, and their blocking was almost as bad as the O-line.  Just a complete and utter failure by the coaching staff, proving they are unable to construct a viable SEC offense.  As expected, all of the talk from Napier about playing DJ Lagway and having a special package for him was just that – talk.  He wasn’t going to put Lagway in until he was forced to, and when he finally did get to play, the playcalling looked just the same.  Lagway at least did some good things – actually throwing and completing 2 slant routes over the middle (which Mertz seemingly just can’t or won’t do), and showed off his mobility to extend a few plays and lead a TD drive.

Florida’s defense was nearly as bad as the offense.  The front seven looked demonstrably smaller, weaker, and slower than the Miami O-line, and were abused all game.  There is nothing good to say about any individual player, as none of them contributed anything of note, other than the two personal foul penalties that assisted in two Miami TD drives.  The LB play was marginally better than the D-line.  Pup Howard was sideline-to-sideline making plays, and Shemar James had a great interception in the 1st quarter that the offense failed to cash in on, settling for a FG after starting with a short field.  But neither were real factors for much of the game.  None of the other LBs played well.  The secondary was hit-or-miss – literally and figuratively.  Jason Marshall was solid and gave up only 2 short completions.  Devon Moore looked OK until getting injured – again.  Some of the younger CBs got more snaps than expected and did their best, but buckled while Cam Ward had too much time to survey the field while the front seven was getting stoned at the LOS.  The safety play was just brutal, though.  Missed tackles, blown coverages, allowing Cane receivers free run through the middle zones all afternoon.  Essentially the same crap we’ve seen since 2021.  There is no excuse for them anymore – even with a scheme that has proven useless and ineffective, someone should be able to make some plays now.  This just goes back to my wondering if the talent level really was all it was being hyped up to be……I don’t think it is.  Napier should immediately remove Austin Armstrong, demote Roberts to only coaching the LBs, and let Harris run the defense.  But that will never happen, as Napier has no self-awareness nor the humility to admit failure and make necessary changes – just unnecessary ones (like firing 2 respected coaches in Sean Spencer and Corey Raymond and keeping Armstrong around after last season). 

Next up for Florida is Samford.  The Bulldogs came to the Swamp in 2021 and lost 70-52, but won in helping push Dancin’ Danny Mullen and Todd Grantham out the door.  This years’ edition of them is nowhere as talented or dangerous offensively. Other than QB Quincy Crittendon, who is athletic and can extend plays, the Gator defense should be able to control the game from the outset.  At least I hope so.  Which is a good thing, because Lagway gets the start at QB while Mertz sits out until he passes concussion protocol.  I actually hope 3rd-string QB Clay Millen gets in some work as well, because he may be needed more than anyone expected as the season progresses.  While it would be nice to see Lagway roll up huge numbers with exciting plays, I’m expecting Napier to play it safe, run the ball a lot, and try to protect him from injury and get by with a win, even if it’s ugly.  Samford’s defense is bad, though, so the Gators could still run up an easy 30+ point win.

Nothing from this game will satisfy the masses now, however.  There is so much anger and disgust lingering from last Saturday’s embarrassment that it will take a big win this week AND winning next week against Texas A&M to get the noise to die down even just a little.  As always in a game like this, the biggest hope other than winning is NO INJURIES, PLEASE.

I could go into a lot more detail and expound on the deficiencies of both the coaching staff and roster, but It’s now 100% in the open for all of Gator Nation to see, and it has had enough.  Even the national media has joined in, roasting Napier all week.  Napier threw more fuel onto the fire with his disparaging remarks about the fan base, which is always the Sign of the Apocalypse for any coach before he’s eventually fired.  

I’m just glad I have some internet service here in my rural Central Florida basement.

Pre-game Sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game Sitrep: DEFCON 1

Prediction:
Florida 41 Samford 7

The 2024 season starts with I’d say more trepidation than excitement for Gator Nation, as the Miami Hurricanes come to Gainesville for a rare visit to play Florida.  It was a LONG ‘winter of discontent’, followed by a LONG ‘spring of discontent’, followed by a LONG ‘summer of discontent’.  More coaching changes, more talk of possibly sharing playcalling responsibilities, another attempt to build at least a functional SEC-level defense, and even changes to the heads of both Strength and Conditioning and Nutrition.  Billy Napier’s Florida resume looks really weak to date with way too many holes and missteps, and he’s facing intense pressure to deliver proof of concept by finally winning more games and proving the Gators are a well-coached team.

Florida’s offense will have it’s hands full with Miami’s front seven.  The Canes have a force at DE in Rueben Bain, a disruptive player who will test Florida’s tackles – Austin Barber backed up by ARkansas transfer Devon Manuel at LT and some combination of San Diego St. transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and Kam Waites at RT.  The other 3 DL are transfers, but all are experienced and solid players.  The Gators will have to prove they can do more in the passing game than the dink-and-dunk attack from last season.  Graham Mertz has to utilize the intermediate and deep zones more successfully to keep the defense honest and give his playmakers – especially Tre Wlson – opportunities to make explosive plays.  His previous connection with new WR Chimere Dike (who transferred in from Wisconsin) could pay dividends immediately.  Oregon transfer Elijhah Badger has looked solid in fall camp.  TEs Arlis Boardingham and Hayden Hansen need to provide quick outlets for Mertz if he’s under pressure.  Miami is starting 3 new players in it’s secondary, and Florida has to test them early and often.  If Mertz gets time to throw, he should find success downfield.

Notice that I haven’t talked about the Gator rushing attack.  This is normally what Napier would lean on in almost any game, but with Montrell Johnson likely not 100% returning from knee surgery 4 weeks ago and with little experience behind him, I’m not sure there will be consistent success to be found unless the passing game can provide balance.  Treyaun Webb, Jaden Baugh, and Ja’Kobi Jackson all have legit talent and will get touches, but they have precious little experience in pass protection or as receivers out of the backfield, which is where Johnson’s potential lack of availability could hurt.  Miami LBs Wesley Bissainthe and Francisco Mauigoa are very good, and will be hard to run against unless the O-line really plays well.  The interior of the Gator O-line could be very good with the rotation of Jake Slaughter, Knijeah Harris, Damieon George, Rod Kearney, and Bryce Lovett at the guard and center positions.  It will be interesting to see how Napier handles the playcalling as the game progresses – will he show aggressiveness, and, if so, for how long?  I doubt playing it safe will win this game – he has to attack consistently.

Even with some of the questions about the offense, it’s the Gator defense that will receive the most scrutiny on Saturday.  It was historically bad last season, and has to prove itself to everyone.  Ron Roberts has the responsibility to bring structure and cohesiveness to this unit, and leadership to the defensive coaching staff.  Austin Armstrong failed miserably as Defensive Coordinator in 2023, both calling games and by clashing with other position coaches.  While he has retained that title, it’s obvious that Roberts is really running the show.  The Florida front seven will have it’s hands full with Miami’s running attack, led by Oregon St. transfer Damieon Martinez, who ran for 1,185 yards last season.  Mark Fletcher is a solid second option who ran for over 500 yards as a true freshman.  The right side of Miami’s O-line is very good, with guard Anez Cooper and tackle Francis Mauiogoa.  Florida actually has the most returning experience and talent it’s had along the D-line in years, and they will be tested for 60 minutes.  The tackle rotation of Cam Jackson, Caleb Banks, and Penn transfer Joey Slackman has to at least gain a stalemate at the line of scrimmage, or it will be a long afternoon for the defense.  Miami was fortunate in getting QB Cam Ward to transfer in from Washington St.  He’s a decent passer who can scramble and has 2 full years of starting experience.  The Gator DEs have to get pressure on him and try to force some mistakes.  The return of Justus Boone after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury is huge for the pass rush, and the rotation of Tyreak Sapp, TJ Searcy, Kelby Collins, George Gumbs, and 5* true freshman LJ McCray will have to contribute.  It appears that Florida will have it’s best pair of linebackers since 2016 with Shemar James and South Carolina transfer Grayson ‘Pup’ Howard.  2 excellent true freshmen prospects – Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles – may have to grow up quickly.  Roberts will be the LB position coach and has a good reputation, and his unit is gonna be tested right from the start.  The rash of missed tackles and blown assignments seen the previous 2 seasons has to be rectified immediately.

The Gator secondary is the strongest and deepest unit on the defense, and will need to prove to the rest of the college football world it has moved past the horrific performance of the past 2 seasons.  The raw talent at the disposal of new secondary coach Will Harris is unmistakable.  CB Jason Marshall returns for his senior season ready to show he’s an early-round NFL Draft pick.  Devon Moore is a solid bookend to Marshall, but has to stay healthy for an entire season.  Aaron Gates and Dijon Johnson took their lumps as freshmen last season and should be much improved.  The safety position has been significantly upgraded from the experience gained by returning sophomores Jordan Castell and Sharif Denson, as well as getting transfers Asa Turner from Washington and Trikweze Bridges from Oregon, both of whom have plenty of starting experience.  The secondary will be challenged by Miami WRs Xavier Restepo, Jacolby George, and Houston transfer Samuel Brown.  All 3 are productive players with plenty of experience.  My biggest hope for the defense is that since this will be just the first game together for Ward and these receivers, that the noise of the Swamp, along with what should be an improved defensive front, is enough to force enough punts to give the Gator offense as many possessions as possible to generate points.

This is a massive game for both programs and head coaches.  Both have struggled recently, and the fan bases are frustrated with underachieving performance by both the players and coaches.  One team will get a springboard for a fast start and positive momentum, while the other will remain stuck in a rut both on the field and off.  I’m going with the home team in this game, only because it’s at the Swamp – not based on confidence in Napier’s playcalling or decision-making until I see proof on the field of play.  I think this one stays close all the way through and hopefully the Gator defense is improved just enough to hold on. 

Prediction:

Florida 27

Miami 24

I described the feeling of Gator Nation heading into the 2023 season as “Fear and Loathing in Gainesville”.  Sadly, that feeling wound up being spot on.  Even more sad is that it really applies more to Gator Nation heading into the 2024 season.  Despite an ugly season-opening loss at Utah, the Gators rebounded with a big home win over Tennessee and got to the Georgia game with a 5-2 record.  That’s when the wheels fell off, with a terrible 5-game losing streak to end the season caused by abysmal defense and some brutally-bad playcalling in critical moments.  Florida ended 2023 with a third-straight losing season, and my best description of the prognosis for 2024 is “what DEFCON level is the program at?  I’d say right now a 2, approaching 1 with a slow start.  Could things actually get worse?  Yes, they could.

Billy Napier courted even more controversy by staying with Austin Armstrong as the Defensive Coordinator, but brought in Ron Roberts from Auburn as an actual adult in the room who should command the respect of the defensive assistants, which Armstrong failed miserably at.  It led to the firing of two very respected position coaches in Sean Spencer and Corey Raymond, and generated even more questions about Napier’s leadership and decision-making.  Napier also had to replace both his Strength and Conditioning coach and Head Nutritionist, as it was painfully obvious as the season progressed that the Gators were lacking in both areas.  Again, that reflects directly on the head coach and his decision-making capability.

The key personnel losses were WR Ricky Pearsall, RB Trevor Etienne, and DE Princely Umanmielen.  While Pearsall moved on to the NFL as a 1st-round draft pick, Etienne and Umanmielen transferred to Georgia and Mississippi, respectively, leaving by taking some pointed shots at the coaching they received at Florida.  Both are on the 2024 schedule, and just add more fuel to the fire that Napier is in over his head trying to lead a SEC program.  Only his recruiting and coaching (or lack of) will answer the questions, which I’ll try to address here.

Offense

The Gator offense of 2023, despite some statistical success, proved to be limited in explosive play capability and inept at moving fast when the situation dictated it.  From the maddeningly slow pace and lack of urgency in the opener at Utah through the painfully conservative play (and unnecessary double-reverse pass that failed miserably and completely shifted the momentum of the game) in the last game against Florida State, Napier’s playcalling and seeming lack of feel for game flow and intensity had many fans howling for outright changes for 2024.  It appears he is doubling-down on himself, however, stating he will still be the primary playcaller while hedging with adding game plan and scheme input form TE coach Russ Callaway.  At this point I’d say the majority of Gator Nation won’t simply take those statements at face value, and wants to see proof of concept throughout the season.

The QB position is firmly in the hands of Graham Mertz after a solid 2023 season, and his play and leadership are critical to any success the offense and entire team has in 2024.  Mertz showed he could direct an efficient short passing game with great accuracy, but that same passing game was neither consistently effective nor quick-striking.  Too many times when Florida needed a quick score, Napier’s plodding game plan and Mertz’s lack of downfield accuracy doomed the Gators to a loss.  Even with what hopes to be a better O-line and a more open attack with input from Callaway, Mertz has to show improvement.  He needs to prove to defenses that he can utilize the entire field, and also help keep plays alive by managing the pocket better under pressure instead of scrambling out to the right and killing the play.  Heralded freshman DJ Lagway has already cemented himself as the #2 QB, and showed some promise with both his arm strength and running ability in the spring.  He will get some limited packages almost immediately to gain experience, but has to show he’s not just a placeholder and be effective when given the opportunity.  He has already shown enough maturity to not be overwhelmed by anything thrown his way so far, but we’ll see what happens when things get real.  Napier did a good job here by getting Clay Millen to transfer in from Colorado St.  He is a redshirt junior with plenty of playing experience and can keep things afloat if required, unlike the backup QBs of the previous 2 seasons.

The running back room came into fall camp as a group that, while not spectacular, looked solid and deep.  This despite the fact that it’s home-run hitter, Etienne, gave the Florida program and Napier a huge slap in the face by transferring to Georgia of all places, while departing with some choice comments about the program and Napier when he exited.  Then, in the very first few days of fall camp, Montrell Johnson went down with a knee injury that no one really knows the severity of.  Allegedly he is already back on on the practice field in a limited capacity after surgery, but his availability is unknown for the season opener and the next few weeks after.  He is by far the most experienced returning back and projected to be one of the team leaders, so any prolonged absence could really hurt the offense.  Losing his ability and experience in pass protection and as an outlet receiver that knows his routes are things that the casual fan doesn’t think about……until something bad happens.  Treyaun Webb is likely the starter in Johnson’s place, but didn’t get many snaps in 2023 and is still learning the finer points of the position.  True Freshman Jaden Baugh is a big, powerful back with decent speed that was coveted by major programs.  He had his moments in spring practice and the Orange and Blue Game, and there is some buzz he could be really good very early on.  Ja’Kobi Jackson is a junior with very little game experience that seems to have found his game recently.  He is likely the quickest and shiftiest of the backs and surprised in the spring.  Finally, true freshman Kahnen Daniels is another promising prospect that may be forced into action much sooner than desired, but could also make some plays.  Johnson’s quick return would certainly provide some reassurance to the rest of the offense and be that known quantity that every coach and QB wants.

The WR corps is the deepest it’s been since Napier took over, but still lacks overall experience and proven production beyond super sophomore Tre Wilson.  The loss of Pearsall will be felt, and Wilson has to step into the leadership role immediately.  He has the speed and elusiveness to be one of the best in the SEC, and showed even as a freshman he wasn’t afraid of the big stage.  Chimere Dike is a transfer from Wisconsin that knows Mertz well and should step right in as a starter.  Elijhah Badger transferred in from Oregon and seems to have secured the WR3 slot.  Kahleil Jackson returns with probably the best hands of the group and will be in the rotation.  Injuries happen, though, and depth is needed, so the unit still needs to find production out of returning receivers Marcus Burke, Ja’Quavion Fraziars, Andy Jean, and Aiden Mizell.  There is too much speed and size among them to simply be wasted.  Lastly, true freshmen Tank Hawkins and TJ Abrams have elite speed and elusiveness, and could be incorporated as threats on jet sweeps and also in the return game.  This group may be relied upon more heavily than in Napier’s first two seasons, especially if the running game struggles early.

The TE room has been significantly upgraded the past year and a half, and finally could be a consistent contributor to the offensive attack.  Arlis Boardingham and Hayden Hansen took over the position in 2023, and each showed some flashes of what they can do.  Boardingham is the quicker and better pass-catcher of the two, and gave defenses problems in the intermediate and red zones as he gained more playing time the second half of last season.  Hansen is a huge player at 6’7″ and 260 lb., and was an effective in-line blocker and occasional red zone target given the size advantage he possesses.  Both should be better with added experience.  Tony Livingston is a sophomore with lots of athletic ability, but he has to prove he’s a willing blocker and has learned the playbook to gain more snaps.  True freshman Amir Jackson impressed in the spring, but likely won’t see much action until he improves his blocking and is still learning the playbook.  I’m hoping position coach Callaway can get this unit more involved this season with his increased role in developing the game plan and playcalling.

As much as the offensive line was a pleasant surprise in 2022, it was an unpleasant one in 2023.  It was bad enough that the talent level was mediocre at best to begin with, but the lack of experience and depth behind the starters was magnified as the season wore on.  The running game struggled too often, and Mertz was running for his life too often and eventually incurred a season-ending injury against Missouri.  The lack of good O-line play led to the handcuffing of much of the playbook, leading to those long drawn-out drives when expediency was a must, and the high completion percentage for Mertz that didn’t really translate into a passing attack that stretched the field and threatened defenses.  Rob Sale hasn’t shown he can recruit or develop SEC-level players to date, and he and new assistant O-line coach Jon Decoster have a LOT of work to do.  There is some quality returning with Austin Barber at LT and Jake Slaughter at center, but still many questions.  Can the right side of the line finally be upgraded with more experience and some position switches?  Damieon George moves to guard, and San Diego St. transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson gets first crack at RT.  Knijeah Harris, Roderick Kearney, and Brycee Lovett are touted 2nd-year players that will have to step into contributing roles along the interior, while someone out of the group of Kamryn Waites, Caden Jones, and Arkansas transfer Devon Manuel have to provide some meaningful depth and snaps at the tackle positions.  It goes without saying that this group’s success or failure will ultimately decide the fate of the Gator offense in 2024.  The O-line play at Florida has been mediocre and inconsistent for far too many seasons since 2009, and that’s a killer in the SEC.

Defense

And I thought it couldn’t get any worse.  Defensive Coordinator Austin Armstrong was completely overmatched, showing his lack of experience and leadership in rolling out a historically bad unit in 2023 that matched dubious records set back in the 1940s.  The entire season was plagued by horrific tackling, terrible in-game management, confusion in lining up throughout the season, and a dearth of turnovers.  In addition, there was a LOT of infighting between Armstrong and then-DL coach Spencer and then-secondary coach Raymond – both successful position coaches whom Armstrong apparently thought he knew more than.  Other than all of that, all was well.  It’s become so bad that Napier had to go out and hire an actual experienced DC in Roberts to try and helm the defense, provide maturity and leadership, and babysit Armstrong, who for some reason still is on staff while Napier fired Spencer and Raymond.  Roberts comes from Auburn and is the alleged “godfather” of this scheme, which in itself is VERY worrisome, as this scheme hasn’t shown anything positive in 2 seasons.  Much is riding on Roberts making this unit simply functional and looking even marginally adequate to give the team any chance for success in 2024 – that’s how bad things have become.  If he fails, then both he and Armstrong are gonna find a horse head in their bed.

The defensive line started fall camp with more depth and experience than it has in years, but there are still issues.  The best pass rusher, Umanmielen, is now at Mississippi.  Jamari Lyons, who was going to be in the 4-man rotation at DT, broke his ankle in the first fall practice and is out for the season.  The tackle position is still in decent shape with returning starters Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks, but touted Penn transfer Joey Slackman has to step in and contribute immediately.  The injury to Lyons will force at least one undersized DE into the rotation – either Tyreke Sapp or Kelby Collins.  It’s the Last Chance Saloon for Des Watson, who supposedly has lost some weight from an obese 460+, but I’m not expecting much from him.  True freshman Michai Boireau may be forced into early action as well.  The situation at DE/Edge looks much better, starting with the return of Justus Boone after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury.  His leadership was sorely missed last season.  Collins, Kamran James, and TJ Searcy showed flashes as true freshmen, and are expected to contribute much more.  Jack Pyburn was coming on late in 2023 when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in November, and has made a rapid recovery – hopefully he’s ready to play earlier than expected.  Finally, true freshman LJ McCray is a 5-star recruit that has already shown well in spring practice and will play this season.  New DL coach Gerald Chatman has some decent talent and depth to work with, and hopefully can get this unit to play with more speed and aggression than seen the previous 2 seasons.  It’s incumbent upon this group to generate a better pass rush than last season, as well as making more plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, to give the rest of the defense any chance for improvement and the team more opportunities to win games.  Here’s hoping the group as a whole is in better shape this fall and actually allowed to play more aggressively by the scheme and play calls from Armstrong or Roberts – whomever is actually calling the defense.

The linebacker unit performed poorly as well last season and has much to prove.  There has been a lot of roster turnover and an injection of young and older talent, but can it all come together – and quickly?  It all starts with Shemar James, by far the most accomplished and talented player, who returns from a knee injury suffered in last year’s Georgia game which really hurt the entire defense.  His leadership and playmaking was missed, and his return provides a huge boost.  Grayson “Pup” Howard transferred in from South Carolina, where he played well as a true freshman in 2023, and looks to be an immediate starter.  Senior Derrick Wingo is the best run defender but has to improve in pass coverage.  Sophomore Jaden Robinson showed some promise in limited action in 2023 and has to take on an increased role.  Look for 2 outstanding true freshmen recruits – Aaron Chiles and Myles Graham (son of Earnest) – to get immediate snaps.  They are that talented and need to provide immediate depth.  This unit has more talent than it has in years but also lacks experience.  Roberts coaches the LBs and has a good track record as a position coach, and along with Mike Peterson really needs to bring this group along quickly.

To complete the trifecta, the secondary also struggled mightily last season, allowing far too many explosive plays and 3rd-down conversions that led to some brutal late-game collapses and losses.  New secondary coach Will Harris comes in with some excellent credentials from both college and the NFL and looks so far as a strong hire by Napier.  He inherits the defensive unit with the most returning talent, depth, and experience, but must rebuild their confidence and mold them into a well-functioning group.  The cornerback position is led by Jason Marshall, who surprisingly returns to Florida for his 4th year as a starter.  He has high-round NFL ability and just needs to find consistency in his game.  Devin Moore is likely the starter opposite Marshall.  He has proven ability to be a solid SEC CB, but in his case the most important ‘ability’ is availability – he’s been dogged by multiple injuries his first 2 seasons and must stay healthy.  Ja’Keem Jackson, Aaron Gates, and Dijon Johnson are all true sophomores who flashed ability and playmaking skills in limited roles last season and will receive plenty of snaps in the CB rotation.  The safety position was a mess in 2023, highlighted by poor tackling, lack of ball skills, and recurring blown assignments.  Part of this was inexperience as multiple true freshmen were thrown into the fire, but the coaching and scheme disagreements between Armstrong and Raymond removed any real chances for success.  Transfers Trikweze Bridges from Oregon and Asa Turner from Washington are both 5th-year seniors with starting experience at successful programs and will be in the mix for starting roles.  Jordan Castell and Sharrif Denson took their lumps as freshmen last season and should be much improved.  Some combination of sophomores Bryce Thronton and DJ Douglas, along with freshmen Jameer Grimsley and Teddy Foster, have to step up and provide some immediate depth.

Special Teams

Once again, the “Gamechangers” made a mockery of that title for most of 2023.  There were multiple penalties of the usual sort, but two especially egregious mistakes directly led to two losses.  First, there was the “two players with the same number on the punt return unit” penalty against Utah that led to a TD late in the first half and crippled Florida’s chances of victory.  The second was running the FG unit onto the field against Arkansas while the offense was wondering if the ball should be spiked to stop the clock.  The referees somehow didn’t penalize Florida as they should have, and the potential winning FG at the end of regulation was missed amid the confusion.  Unacceptable.  There were plenty of mindless holding penalties and other instances of a lack of focus and coaching that hindered success.

Napier has brought in Joe Houston to help coordinate the special teams, and yes – “Houston, there is a problem”.  It’s time to show professionalism across the board with these units.  Fortunately, Florida returns one of the top kicking duos in the country for 2024 to provide a solid starting point.  Trey Smack took over as the placekicker in the Tennessee game and did a very good job the rest of the way.  Yes, he missed that FG against Arkansas and a critical one against F$U, but no one will make every kick.  He showed a strong leg, making multiple FGs from beyond 50 yards, and was generally accurate.  He was also a weapon on kickoffs, driving most of his kicks into or beyond the end zone for touchbacks.  Punter Jeremy Crawshaw built upon a solid 2022 season and was one of the best in the country in 2023.  He has great leg strength, and improved his hang time.  He also proved adept at directional kicking when needed, continually pinning opponents inside their own 20-yard line to force long drives and improving the chances for better field position for the offense.

The kickoff return game took a step back in 2023, despite the combination of Etienne and Pearsall getting most of the reps.  Blocking was poor, and there were too many penalties.  With both gone now, the door is open for some new guys to provide some juice, with hopefully some better blocking and coaching from coach Houston.  There are plenty of candidates that can break long returns, including Wilson, Dike, and Mizell, and some of the freshmen like Hawkins and Abrams.  The same issues popped up with punt returns as well.  Someone from that same list of potential returners can inject some juice into a long-moribund unit.  Kickoff and punt coverage were bright spots, and among the best in the SEC and country.  With the deepest roster since Napier arrived, I expect this to continue with plenty of talent available.

Special Teams as a whole should be more settled and the best that Napier has fielded.  Yes, that’s a low bar, but you gotta start somewhere.  It seems he has started to realize that having a dedicated coach to oversee all special teams makes sense and should lead to better continuity, less in-game mistakes, and overall improvements.

Schedule and Outlook

The 2024 schedule is BRUTAL.  9 ranked teams (mostly in the Top 15), traditional powers, and a 5-game stretch to end the season that might be most difficult in Gator football history – and that is not hyperbole.  The first 7 games are no cakewalk either, but if the Gators are going to have any hope of having a winning record and getting to a bowl game, and if Billy Napier wants to keep his job, a fast start and winning 5 or 6 of them is essential.

Miami – Win

Talk about a critical opener for both programs.  Struggling teams, coaches on the hot seat, a seldom-played but intense in-state rivalry, and the need for a winning start to the season.  Miami has struggled on the road in recent seasons, and, while they have a solid new QB in Washington St. transfer Cam Ward, they are breaking in a new secondary and simply haven’t played up to their ability.  Stupor-Mario Cristobal understands this rivalry as a former Hurricane player, but his coaching has been as lackluster as Napier’s, and my hope is that playing in the Swamp is enough for Florida and it’s rebuilt defense to escape with a close win.  This game is a must-win for Napier – if Florida loses, it will be DEFCON 1 in Gator Nation.

Samford – Win

This game should be a breather, but there will be a letdown no matter what from the previous week.  It’s on the coaching staff and team leaders to get the team focused on winning.  As always in games like these – NO INJURIES, please.

Texas A&M – Loss

This is where things start to get tricky.  The Aggies have a new head coach in Mike Elko and have recruited very well the past 3 years, but are still one of the biggest up-and-down teams from week to week.  Can Elko provide more consistency in performance?  Their defense will provide a stiff challenge, and I expect this game won’t be decided until late.  This is just the kind of game in which Napier’s teams have laid an egg.

@MIssissippi State – Win

Napier has had little success on the road so far, so until his teams show improvement there, it will be hard to predict any wins.  In this case, however, the Bulldogs are bringing in a new head coach, new offensive system, and have had a huge roster turnover.  The Gators will come in with a more established and experienced QB, which should be enough to carry the day.  Starkville is a weird place to play, though, and Florida has struggled there historically.

Bye Week

UCF – Win

Another must-win for Napier.  Losing to this Johnny-come-lately program would be a crushing defeat for the program and something that could really fragment the team camaraderie – and the fan base.  This will be UCF’s biggest game of the season, and they will pull out all the stops to try and get the upset.  You never know what Gus Malzahn will cook up – he’s a weird dude, but will throw everything he can at the Gators.

@Tennessee – Loss

Florida handled the Vols in Gainesville last year, and Tennessee struggled after that to a season far below expectations.  This will be a very tough test, and Josh Heupel’s offense will cause problems for the Gator defense.  I’m going with a loss here while still in wait-and-see mode on Napier’s road game performance against legit teams.

Kentucky (Homecoming) – Win

Another important game.  Florida has shockingly lost 3 straight to the Wildcats, and have looked terrible in each game.  It’s another opportunity for the coaching staff to prove they are better prepared than previous seasons and for the Gators to re-establish themselves in the series.  Mark Stoops will bring in his usual well-coached defense, and try to get another grind-it-out upset.

Bye Week

Georgia (Jacksonville) – Loss

The Bataan death march begins.  Even if Florida has shown by now that they have improved, they are still overmatched in talent and coaching in this game.  Normally I’d hope for an all-out effort and a chance at an upset, but not yet.  This will be 7 out of 8 losses in the series, and could bode ill for the rest of the season and Napier’s chances of surviving.

@Texas – Loss

No rest for the Gators, as they travel to play a resurgent Texas program.  Steve Sarkisian is an elite playcaller, and this could be Florida’s toughest defensive test of the season.  The Gators are capable of pulling off an upset, but after the emotional game against Georgia it will be that much tougher to do it.

LSU – Win

Florida has been dominated in this series since 2009, and have found some improbable ways to lose.  This game has become as much a mental hurdle as a physical one, and often that’s much harder to overcome.  I’m taking a leap of faith that the Gator defense will be extra motivated after last year’s historical collapse, and that coming back home to the Swamp provides enough of an emotional lift to get a much-needed win.

Mississippi – Loss

In a vacuum, I could see Florida with a good chance of winning this game.  But after the grind of a brutal SEC schedule, it could be too much to get up for one last conference game against another elite play-caller in Lane Kiffin.  I get the feeling this will be a wild back-and-forth game from start to finish, but that the Rebels steal a win late.

@Florida $tate – Win

Again, if Florida hadn’t by now played such a monster schedule and been through the wringer physically, mentally, and emotionally, I wouldn’t hesitate to predict a win.  As it stands, though, I’m predicting a victory because of the team at this point being battle-hardened and already having faced much tougher competition.  The Criminoles were gutted by graduation and defections to the NFL, and haven’t come close to replacing that lost talent.  Despite the game being in Taliban City, I’m hoping for an upset win to close out the regular season for the Gators.

Overall Record          7-5

SEC Record              3-5

The 2024 season arrives with the lowest expectations from much of the fan base and national pundits since either Charley Pell’s first year in 1979 or perhaps even going further back to – yes – the 1940s.  Such has been the recent level of performance from the players AND coaches.  The schedule itself has been discussed everywhere since it’s release, and is a cause for legitimate concern.  Florida’s projected win total over/under is 5.5, and it easily could wind up being under unless there is some fundamental improvement in both play AND playcalling.  The offense must show it can attack the entire field, while the defense has been a punching bag for the past 3 seasons and has to restore some lost pride.

This is Billy Napier’s most talented and experienced Florida team overall, but it arrives at the same time as immense pressure to win more games to potentially save his job against what his defenders will say is an impossible gantlet of opponents.  He has done himself no favors with multiple self-inflicted wounds, including bad coaching hires, bad situational playcalling, and simply dumb special teams mistakes that have directly led to losses.  He and some of his assistants – current and former –  have directly been the cause for 2-3 losses each of the previous 2 seasons.  That’s unacceptable, especially when he has been given more resources financially and staff-wise than any previous Florida coach, and has not shown a positive return-on-investment to date.  It’s both sad and disappointing that even predicting 7 wins is seen by many as wildly optimistic.

Lots of new faces in key roles – again – and a lot to prove to themselves and the country – again.  You can’t hide in the SEC, and the good (or bad) will be exposed quickly.  The schedule is likely one of the handful of most difficult Florida has ever faced, which allows no leeway for mistakes or chances to slowly improve as the season progresses.  The season could go a lot of ways, and we’re about to see where.  I believe winning 7 games would be a very successful season, which is a sad state of affairs and a separate discussion in itself.  Anything above that would be near-miraculous.  If additional injuries hit key players, the lack of talent and experience at certain positions will be quickly magnified.  Things will turn ugly – and fast.  Napier has lost most of the goodwill he arrived with, and Gator Nation – even the casual fan – is taking notice of the poor performance of not just the players, but some of the coaches.  This season arrives with more trepidation than excitement.

It’s that time again……Heeeeeeeeeeeere come the Gators!