It’s time for Florida to re-emerge on the national scene, or fade away under the pressure of a tough October that contains 3 games out of 4 against Top 10 teams, starting with the LSU Tigers.

LSU is in a funk right now, struggling to beat a middling Auburn team, and simply not putting weaker teams away early.  I honestly believe they have been sleepwalking a bit, waiting for a real team to show up on their schedule to get their full attention……and the Gators will get it.

The Tiger offense still centers around a powerful running game, with a rotation of solid, big backs, led by Spencer Ware, Kenny Hilliard, and Alfred Blue, and an experienced O-Line.  Their running game still looks formidable, even when teams have been stacked up to stop it and daring their new QB, Zach Mettenberger, to beat them.  He has not lived up to his billing so far, but Florida has had a history of making struggling QBs look like stars – that cannot happen this week.  The Tigers have playmakers at WR with Odell Beckham and Russell Shepard, and an excellent TE in Chase Clement.  I get the feeling that LSU may go for some early deep throws to try and surprise the Gator defense and get an early lead, before settling into their comfort zone and running the ball.

The Gator defense has a huge challenge ahead.  The run defense has not been terribly impressive yet, and LSU will not panic and abandon the run, even if behind by a score into the 4th quarter.  The front seven needs to prevent the long, time-consuming drives that will wear them down going into the second half.  It’s all hands on deck in trying to stop the Tigers and give a still-learning Florida offense enough chances to win the game.  Coach Quinn has been rotating his DL to keep them fresh for the second half, and I expect the same.  The DT rotation of Omar Hunter, Sharrif Floyd, and Tre Orr have to hold the point of attack.  Unfortunately, 2 of the DEs in the rotation are true freshmen, and Jonathan Bullard and Dante Fowler will have a rough go of it Saturday.  Dominique Easley returns, but he needs help.  I am not confident at all that they can hold up for an extended period.  The LB corps will have to tackle better than they have in 2 years.  It’s time for Jon Bostic to play a disciplined game and get himself into the correct gaps to make plays, while Michael Taylor, Tank Morrison, and the rest of the unit to make a stand.  The secondary will be asked to play a lot of man defense, especially if the safeties are needed to slow down the Tiger running attack.  I think there is enough ability between Marcus Roberson and Jaylen Watkins to hold their own against the LSU WRs, so Matt Elam can be used in a variety of ways to try and make some big plays at safety.

I’m sure Brent Pease has a ton of special plays he can call this week on offense to try and trick LSU……but in a way, I hope he keeps it simple so the Gators play “fast” and aren’t trying to think their way through too much new stuff to be effective.  Jeff Driskel has improved each week, and is getting a lot of press, but let’s be honest – he has a long way to go to prove he is elite, and can still improve quite a bit in his throwing.  He missed at least 2 TDs against Kentucky, and was late and high often in the first half.  I’m sure the staff is making him aware of this, while coaching him up for an extremely tough run coming up.

Coach Muschamp has preached a strong running game all season, but will he be stubborn if the running game gets stuffed early, which is entirely possible?  The O-Line hasn’t faced anything close to the caliber of the Tiger D-Line, and there is no proven RB behind Mike Gillislee.  It may take a reversal of tendencies – throwing more on first down, working the WRs in open spots (even if they are short throws), and springing some new formations to get the ball to Jordan Reed and Trey Burton where they can make a few big plays.

The LSU defense is one of the nation’s elite, and could make it a long afternoon for a Gator offense that still doesn’t know how good it is, or has proven itself against a defense of this caliber.  Sam Montgomery, Anthony Johnson, and Barkevious Mingo lead a terrific D-Line.  The secondary, despite the loss of Tyrann Mathieu, is a solid unit that makes plays.  Eric Reid and Craig Loston are one of the best safety duos in the country, but their CBs are inexperienced, and along with the LBs, can be exploited……if the Gator O-Line can protect Driskel and open some holes for the running game……a tough task.

Even with the perceived struggles of the LSU offense recently, I think they are going to be ready to perform well at the Swamp this Saturday.  Florida seems to be mentally and physically tougher than either of the 2010 or 2011 teams, and has the embarrassment of last year’s beatdown in Death Valley as motivation.  In the end, I see the experience of a solid running game and a seasoned defense for the Tigers being the difference in what could be a real classic.

Prediction  – LSU 23    Florida 17

Lipstick on a Pig (or Mildcat)

That was one of the worst efforts I’ve seen at the Swamp from an SEC opponent, as Kentucky rolled over early and handed Florida a sloppy shutout win.

Yeah, their starting QB was out, but they knew that all week during practice, and that was the best they could offer on offense?  Pathetic.  Morgan Newton was basically told not to pass after his 3rd pick in the first half, before they finally surrendered and brought in a true freshman to play the 4th quarter.

Florida’s defense didn’t have to do anything but play simple schemes and wait for turnovers.  However, the run defense still remains a serious concern.  Texas A&M had a big day through 3 quarters until their freshman QB was asked to try and come from behind.  Tennessee was having some success until they panicked in the 4th quarter, and even though the Mildcats were mostly a passing team on film, allowing so many yards on draws and to the edges is simply not good enough.  Coach Muschamp said as much at halftime, and it’s time to put up or shut up in October, starting with LSU.

There’s a lot of praise going around for Jeff Driskel right now, and most of it is warranted.  But if you look a little closer at the first half again, he missed a LOT of open receivers due to bad timing (very late delivering the ball), and winding up and throwing high, costing the Gators 2 potential touchdowns.  The fans need to patient as he has his ups and downs in October as the competition becomes legitimate, because he’s going to have some struggles.

The best thing about this game was that no serious injuries were incurred.  Trey Burton could sit out due to back spasms, Dominique Easley could rest his knee, and Mike Gillislee could play sparingly so he didn’t re-aggravate his groin injury.  Lots of guys saw some action just in case they are needed later in the season, and many starters could get rotated out as the game got out of hand.

Time to buckle the chinstraps, because it’s time for big-boy football in October.  I’ll be back next week with a preview of the LSU game.

Go Gators!

Still on Top at Rocky Top

All that talk…….all that excitement……all those toothless fans……and still another beatdown administered by Florida to Tennessee.

The Vols certainly made it easy for the Gator coaching staff to motivate the players, trash-talking all week about everything they were going to do to the Gators, and there was even a debate as to whether to rush the field.  Maybe one of their fans could have helped catch Trey Burton or Frankie Hammond as they scorched the field for the tying score and the backbreaker.  Stupid is as stupid does, as another case of Volsheimers is documented for the record.

It looks like Jeff Driskel is learning with every game, and that is an encouraging sign going forward.  He kept his cool in the pocket, ran only when necessary (but with great effect), but is starting to learn that using his mobility can help in the passing game as well.  After a sluggish start, the O-Line started to wear down the Tennessee front seven, and the big plays came in bunches in the second half.  Still some missed assignments and some really dumb penalties (Xavier Nixon), but this group is starting to gel, and it’s fun to watch.  Still, a lot of improvement is needed as the tough competition is coming up in October.

Mike Gillislee continues to show toughness by playing through a groin injury, but is still producing at a high level, and leads the SEC in rushing.  The matchup problems caused by Jordan Reed and Trey Burton are being exploited by Brent Pease, who is showing Florida fans what a real OC does, after the disasters known as the Dazzler and the Cheeseburger.  Now we are seeing glimpses of what the WR corps can start to contribute, with Hammond and Dunbar beginning to get some looks.  The production at the WR position is still the weakness of the offense, and must improve as better defenses to come will really squeeze the box and force Driskel to make plays downfield.  Can Coach Pease find a way to unleash the athletic ability of Andre Debose, who is starting to appear on milk cartons as the missing WR?

Another slow start for the Gator defense, as they allowed that punk Tyler Bray to make some big plays down the field throughout the first half, and this group is still giving up way too many 3rd-and-long conversions.  A new threat was unveiled, as Lerentee McCray was in beast mode all night – he may very well be showing up on NFL draft boards now, and not in the late rounds.  It was a solid if unspectacular performance by the rest of the D-Line rotation, as they started to get hits on Bray in the second half and apply enough pressure to make him inaccurate.

The performance by the LB corps was OK, as they tackled well in space and did a decent job of pass coverage on the short throws.  Still, too many unfilled holes against the run, and this has to improve.  Jon Bostic was flying from sideline to sideline making plays, and Tank Morrison continues to show signs he can be an future all-SEC level player.  The rest of the group needs to contribute more big plays, though.

The secondary had it’s struggles, but you have to give credit to the QB, WRs and TE they were facing – possibly the best they will face in the SEC all season.  To their credit the CBs played physical and did not back down even after giving up some big plays.  Marcus Roberson and Jaylen Watkins had their hands full, but battled.  Louchiez Purifoy is still learning, and gets beat too often. Matt Elam, Pop Saunders, and Josh Evans were in position most of the game at safety, not allowing the home run that could have turned momentum strictly Tennessee’s way.

Finally, the special teams were exactly that – another great game from Kyle Christy, Caleb Sturgis is the best PK in the SEC, and the coverage teams were excellent.  The only problem is the continued timidity of the punt returners.  Too many times they have allowed short kicks to roll for an additional 10-20 yards, giving a still-growing offense that much harder a task.  Maybe Will Muschamp is still gun shy after the disaster that was 2011, but he has a lot of gifted runners available to make things happen.

Next up is Kentucky, as Florida seeks it’s 26th straight victory against them.  The Mildcats are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Western Kentucky, and can’t be a good frame of mind heading to the Swamp.

The offense has to remain focused on solid execution……they are simply not good enough yet to look past an SEC opponent.  It’s time for some backups to contribute this week at RB and WR.  Perhaps Jacoby Brissett can get some snaps at QB if things go well through 3 quarters.  The defense should be too much for Kentucky’s offense to have consistent success against.  Jumping on the Mildcats from the start and getting them in an early hole would be the best scenario.  I need to see continued development from the backups at LB and DB.

I hope that many key players can get some rest this week.  In a perfect world, Gillislee and Dominique Easley would not play at all, but maybe the staff wants them to get enough snaps to stay sharp.  This could be a great opportunity to develop some more depth before the bigger games come along.

It will be interesting to see how the Florida players react to the early success so far.  Will they stay focused on the current opponent, or have another sloppy performance at home, looking ahead to October?  That’s the challenge facing the Gator coaching staff – it would be nice to see some maturity in preparations this week by the players, and a professional effort on Saturday.  However, there are still many young and/or inexperienced players at many critical positions, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a middling affort……but I’d like to be pleasantly surprised.

Prediction:  Florida 34    Kentucky 13

A Tale of Two Halves

There were a lot of Gator fans out on the ledge after the 1st half ended in Aggieland.  A shockingly poor defensive effort against a freshman QB playing his first game had many shaking their heads in disbelief, and perhaps the entire season was hanging in the balance.  However, cooler heads prevailed, with the coaching staff finally getting through to the defenders to play their assignments and how they had been coached, and suddenly the hammer fell on Texas A&M to the tune of 65 yards and zero points in the 2nd half.

College Station is one of the unique places in college football, with all the Aggie traditions on display – the yell leaders, the corps of cadets and cadet band, and a fan base that’s one of the most loyal in the country.  Florida was able to overcome all of that and a poor first half, as the offense(!) actually held things together and put together two solid drives in the second half to get a much-needed win.

A lot of the discussion and analysis will be centered on the 8 sacks allowed, but only a few of those were poor protection – Jeff Driskel will learn to throw the ball away and start to check down to his secondary receivers as he gains experience.  Despite these bad plays, he exhibited a strong arm, some nice touch, and made some clutch plays with his legs.

Mike Gillislee played tough despite a strained groin, scoring twice and getting some tough yards in the red zone that simply weren’t seen the past 2 years at RB.  Jordan Reed is a big factor at TE, and the WRs started to make some plays downfield just often enough to keep some drives going.  The O-Line is still suffering from some blown protections, and losing Chaz Green at RT for most of the second half hurt.  But the unit stuck together and made the difference in the last 20 minutes.

This was a huge confidence-builder for the team, and gives them momentum heading into another important road game at Tennessee.

Volsheimers is in full effect again, as the Tennessee players are all talking a big game and saying “it’s their time”.  Tyler Bray says he’s ready to pick apart the Gator defense, and their defenders for some reason are bragging on themselves……I guess that comes from the confidence gained from beating two cupcakes so far this year, and after such a fine performance in the SEC the past 2 seasons.  The Vols still have no real running game, their O-Line is still suspect, and almost their entire defense is untested or inexperienced.  I’m sure the Gator coaching staff won’t have to do too much motivating on their own – they’ll let the Volunteers do that job for them.

There were a lot of injuries suffered against Texas A&M – the worst being the broken thumb for LB Jelani Jenkins (out 2-4 weeks) and the broken bone in the foot of CB Cody Riggs (out 4-6 weeks).  Tank Morrison and Jaylen Watkins, respectively, get their turn at bat, in Will Muschamp’s “man down, man up” philosophy.  Tennessee’s passing attack is very different from what Florida has faced so far, and it’s time for the D-Line and LBs to make some big plays and punch Bray in the mouth a few times.  The Vol WRs are a good unit, and they will make some plays, though.

One of the best ways to keep Tennessee’s passing game off the field is simple – control the clock on offense with a solid running game and timely completions by Driskel.  If Gillislee is hobbled or unable to play, Coach Pease will have to find a way to get some production out of Brown, Jones, and Hines.  It may not be pretty, but I expect a large dose of running plays, even if they aren’t getting any big gains.  I still think the passing game will be mostly of the short, safe throw variety to get to manageable down and distance on 2nd and 3rd down……but I believe it’s time to see the deep ball, and Andre Debose or someone else to get their chance to make a big play.  The Gator O-Line should be able to more than hold it’s own against the Vol front seven.

It’s all hands on deck for a second consecutive SEC opponent on the road trying to make a statement.  It’s going to be a tough haul, as the 2012 Gators still are searching for a complete identity, but the confidence gained from last week should be a huge boost.  I expect Tennessee to come out with guns blazing, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Florida down in the first half again…….but with the experience now to come back……and the experience of whipping the Volunteers 7 straight times.

Prediction – Florida 27    Tennessee 23

You can tell the football season has begun, as the angst from the fans is already in full effect.  Based on the performance by the Gators against the Falcons, some of it is warranted.

The offense was extremely vanilla as expected, with emphasis on the running game despite 8- and 9-man fronts, to give Texas A&M as little as possible to scout on film.  Even so, there were a lot of missed assignments by the O-Line, especially in short-yardage situations, that were inexcusable from a veteran line.  Mike Gillislee looks like a solid no. 1 at RB, but there is no established backup or rotation yet.

The passing game was painful to watch, with dropped passes by the WRs and both missed reads and bad throws by both QBs.

Based on getting the majority of the snaps from the 2^nd quarter on, Jeff Driskel appears to be the starter going into College Station next week.  He is definitely the better runner between he and Brissett, and I’m hopeful the staff allows him to utilize this against the Aggies, as he’s going to be pressured all afternoon.  It was interesting to see that Brissett had minimal snaps and passing attempts before sitting, leading me to believe that Coach Pease had made some decisions even before fall practice had ended.

The WR performance is hard to gauge right now with the inefficient QB play, but there were drops and missed assignments that were obvious.  This group has to establish some consistency and a vertical threat the next 2 weeks.  I’m sure the conservative game plan had something to do with it……then again, maybe I’m not so sure.

The TEs will be relied upon heavily it appears early this season while the QB play (hopefully) improves.  Reed and Burton (out of the H-Back position) were open all game, and are playmakers that the QBs have to take advantage of until they are more comfortable in the new offense and can establish a downfield passing threat to back defenses off of the LOS.

What unexpectedly has me worried is the so-so performance of the defense.  Perhaps the preseason hype for this unit was off base, as the D-Line failed to get consistent penetration most of the game, and the LBs looked painfully reminiscent of last year’s group in its inability to fill the gaps against a pretty simple run scheme.  The DE play will again struggle this season, but there is hope for the future in the performance of Dante Fowler and Jonathan Bullard, who will get on-the-job training against the SEC as true freshmen.

The secondary’s pass coverage was pretty good, but the quick slants were not adjusted to most of the game, and the tackling was horrendous.  Too much reaching and grabbing, and not enough form tackling……worse than anything I saw in 2011.  Some young guys like Jaylen Watkins and Jabari Gorman got extended snaps, because Louchiez Purifoy was beaten all day in coverage and couldn’t tackle anyone.  Even Matt Elam played a little lazy – hopefully he’s back to last season’s level of play as the competition ramps up, but that was a disappointing effort from one of the team leaders.

Someone in the DT rotation has to step up his play to match that of Sharrif Floyd.  Between Hunter, Orr, and Jacobs, there should be enough ability to play off the attention Floyd will get and to start making plays of their own consistently.  Everyone got a huge scare when Easley went down with a tweak to his surgically-repaired knee.  I still maintain he has been rushed back too soon, and I’m concerned he will not get back to his former level of play until 2013……unless he gets injured again first.  His former aggressiveness could be missed all season.

Now it’s on to the start of the SEC season, as Florida travels to Texas A&M with the pressure of not just an inconsistent offense to improve, but facing a program and team extremely motivated to prove it’s worth to the SEC by winning its first conference game and announcing its arrival as an opponent to be reckoned with.

Complicating matters for the Gators is the arrival of a new staff in College Station, as Kevin Sumlin brings his pass-heavy spread attack over from a successful run at Houston.  He will have the advantage of scheming up a game plan that likely will have twists that the Florida staff will not see on any Houston game film that is tailored to his new players.  However, part of that advantage is hopefully offset by the Aggies having to start a freshman QB, and having their first game against Louisiana Tech postponed by Hurricane Isaac.  That should affect their timing and perhaps limit their efficiency, while also causing some mistakes – whether those are penalties or, better yet, turnovers.

Texas A&M does have most of its O-Line return from last year, led by 2 tackles that could be in the first 2 rounds of the NFL Draft after the season.  Solid OL play can offset a lot of other issues, and the Gator DL must elevate its play and disrupt the rhythm of the quick passing game that Sumlin employs.

The Aggie defense is led by a strong LB corps that will be coming after the Gator QBs all day long, and forcing the Florida offense to prove it can make plays down the field before they play a more honest scheme.  They will have the home crowd advantage and will attempt to dictate the tempo.  If the Gators can find some balance between the run and pass, though, they can take advantage of a young secondary and D-Line and control the flow of the game.

Kyle Field will be rocking, and a likely record crowd will be there to see this historic game, including the Visor.  The 12^th Man will be in force for Aggies, trying to bring home a first SEC win.  It is tremendously hard to predict how the game will unfold, as both teams have so many questions to answer in terms of both the performance of its players, and also the coaching staffs.

Will Texas A&M’s players actually come out too hyped, and make a lot of early mistakes that help Florida grab an early lead?  Will their young QB be inaccurate or become rattled if the Gator defense comes with pressure and new looks?  Can Florida shake off a mediocre effort in week 1 and start to silence the doubters and critics?  Will Jeff Driskel be the guy to grab the starting QB job for good and elevate the play of the entire offense?  Can the Gator WRs finally make some big plays downfield to take the pressure off the running game?

I am expecting Coach Pease and the Gator offensive coaching staff to unveil some wrinkles in the passing game that allow Driskel to roll out of the pocket and allow a pass/run option to pressure the Aggie LBs and secondary.  I have to believe that Dan Quinn and Coach Muschamp have some schemes ready to confuse the young QB and force some mistakes.  The Gator defense has to play aggressively and close off the short, quick throws – sitting back and waiting is a bad plan vs. this passing attack.

It’s time for Florida to play with pride for itself and the entire SEC by stepping up with a big-time road win to start the conference season and work on erasing the bad memories of 2011.

Prediction:  Florida 23              Texas A&M 20

Year 2 begins for Will Muschamp at Florida with a box of chocolates on offense and a seasoned defense.

Brent Pease does not have to perform a complete re-building job, as part of the direction from the head coach was to keep as much terminology as possible from the previous year.  However, he has to be more creative with his schemes and motion, and find a way to maximize a mixed-bag of unknown and misused talent trying to run it’s 3rd offense in 3 years.

Both Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel will play, as neither has separated himself from the other yet. I am looking for which QB executes in the passing game better – which guy reads the defense properly and, more importantly, quickly and in rhythm with his receivers.  Florida should be able to overpower Bowling Green on the ground, but can a second RB earn the trust of the coaches behind Mike Gillislee?  Can any of the WRs develop chemistry with the QBs and be a clutch player?  Is there any deep threat after Andre Debose?  Can any of the TEs behind Jordan Reed block in the running game at all or become a legitimate receiving threat?  As I said in the season preview……many more questions than answers right now……I’m not sure I’m going to like the first few chocolates out of the 2012 box just yet.

The strength of the 2012 Gators is their defense.  It appears that some quality depth has been established in the LB and secondary units, after leaning heavily on the defensive line last season.  It’s time for the back seven to become playmakers and help the offense out.  The rotation in the DL looks solid even with Dominique Easley a question mark coming back from knee surgery. Sharrif Floyd is poised for a breakout year.  Tank Morrison and Michael Taylor will get a lot of snaps to prove they can contribute at LB behind Jon Bostic, Jelani Jenkins, and Lerentee McCray.  The CB position gets a huge boost with the return of two guys from injury – Marcus Roberson and Jeremy Brown (again), even if they still have some rust after their injuries and missing spring practice.  Jabari Gorman looked great throughout the spring and will get a lot of snaps.  The biggest worry is at safety – no consistent performer returns after Matt Elam, with inexperience behind Josh Evans and Pop Saunders, neither of whom stood out last season.  Lots of young players, including true freshmen, will get a long look early this year.

BGSU might hang around for 1-2 quarters on emotion and adrenaline, but Florida outclasses the Falcons across the board. There is no second cupcake in the new schedule format – it’s time to sharpen up the performance right away before a dangerous SEC opener on the road at Texas A&M.

The mantra for the opener is, as always, NO INJURIES.

Prediction – UF 38    BGSU 10