Florida stood toe-to-toe with LSU for 60 minutes, and pulled off a hard fought 27-16 upset victory at The Swamp. It is likely the biggest win of Billy Napier’s career, especially given the circumstances surrounding his job status. Gator Nation once again showed up and showed out at the Swamp, creating an electric atmosphere that kept the players energized throughout.
DJ Lagway showed some real toughness and leadership, playing at maybe 75% on an injured left hamstring. He completed only 13 of 26 passes, but many went for big yards and came at critical times in the game. Elijhah Badger again was the main recipient, including a TD in the 2nd quarter for a 10-3 lead, and then another huge catch near the goal line in the 4th quarter to set up what turned out to be the winning score. That second reception came on an elite throw from Lagway, who stepped up into the pocket to avoid the rush and delivered a strike off of one foot. The offense only ran 45 plays as the defense struggled mightily all afternoon to get off the field, so the big plays were a necessity. After LSU cut the lead to 20-16 with less than 6 minutes to go, Lagway had a huge first down completion to TE Hayden Hansen, and then came the clinching play – a simulated bootleg action to the right followed by a pivot left and pitch to Jaden Baugh, who ran 55 yards to the house and essentially ended the game. The Gators had a surprisingly tough time running the football against a Tiger defense that had been gashed for much of the season, but Baugh’s run and Lagway’s timely completions were enough to get the win. The injury of course hindered his mobility and didn’t help the running game, but he showed some courage and pocket awareness time and again by standing strong in the pocket while the LSU edge rushers were making life hard on Gator OTs Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and Austin Barber. Barber had an especially rough outing, with 2 critical holding calls that offset 1st downs and struggling with the speed of the edge rushers. Those two will have to play much better next week.
THIRRRRRRRRRD DOWWWWWWWWWN!!! It’s bad enough hearing that from the PA announcer, but it’s especially bad watching the Gator defense struggle to get off the field all game. LSU ran 93 plays – more than double that of Florida, and had the ball a ridiculous 42 minutes of game time. Somehow, some way, the defense was able to bend but not break, even more surprising given that four defenders – all in the secondary – played every snap. Talk about tightening the rotation! All four guys played well, but special props go to Trikweze Bridges, who moved from safety to cornerback just 2 weeks ago and held his own against some excellent Tiger WRs. But perhaps the biggest surprise of the game was Florida getting 7 sacks of Garrett Nussmeier. LSU had surrendered only 6 sacks all season coming into this game, so the Gator front seven rose up to play it’s best game of 2024 to date. DT Caleb Banks and DE Tyreak Sapp terrorized Nussmeier the entire game. Shemar James played his best game of his Gator career, leading the team with 11 tackles which included 2 sacks and 2 TFL, and also had 2 pass breakups and good coverage. Certainly a team effort with big plays coming from many defenders. It was apparent that the defensive coaching staff decided to play it safe against LSU”s passing game, forcing the Tigers to be patient by preventing big plays, while hopefully stiffening in the red zone. The strategy worked – barely – due to a superhuman effort from the players and a Swamp crowd that was into the game from the start.
Florida’s special teams were excellent as well. Trey Smack made all 3 of his FG attempts, including a career-best 55 yard conversion to tie the game 10-10 just before halftime. Jeremy Crawshaw pinned LSU inside the 20 repeatedly with good placement and hang time on his punts. And no kicking plays had 12 men on the field or an illegal formation – a bonus!
It’s on to the final game of this historically tough stretch of games, with Ole Miss coming to The Swamp for a rare visit and currently in the 12-team Playoff field. This is the best Rebel team since the one that visited Gainesville back in 2015, and Lane KIffin has gone all-in on 2024 through portal acquisitions in the offseason and a senior-laden roster.
The Rebels are led on offense by QB Jaxson Dart. He leads the SEC in completion %, total yards, TDs, yards per attempt, and QB rating. Kiffin has done an excellent job developing him over the past 2 seasons, as he previously was more of a running threat than accurate passer. Dart is still the second-leading rusher behind Miami transfer Harry Parrish, a quick, slashing RB. Ole Miss is loaded with quality WRs, led by Tre Harris, Cayden Lee, Jordan Watkins, and Antwane Wells. Harris leads the SEC with 987 receiving yards. All average 17 yards or more per completion, which shows they attempt many downfield throws. This matchup with the Florida secondary could be more problematic than even LSU’s passing attack, and I’m not sure the Gators have the depth to handle all of these targets. It very likely could be a similar game plan – force Dart to exercise patience, don’t allow any deep completions, and hope to hold the Rebels to FG attempts in the red zone. A big problem could be Dart’s running ability – even though he’s been hampered by a bad ankle the past few weeks, he’s still a willing and tough runner, unlike Nussmeier was last week. Even more of a problem is that Kiffin is an elite play caller and designer of schemes. Many of his concepts are similar to Steve Sarkisian’s at Texas, and we saw how badly that turned out for the Gators. I don’t see Florida holding Ole Miss under 28 points unless it can generate some turnovers or get pressure on Dart similar to what it accomplished against LSU. Which leads me to……
……the Gator offense. Lagway needs to be healthier and sharper this week, because I believe Florida is going to need at least 30 points, while facing the best D-line in the SEC. The Rebel front four has terrorized QBs all season, leading the conference in sacks and QB pressures. Familiar face Princely Umanmielin returns to The Swamp after transferring from Florida in the offseason and leaving with some withering criticisms of his coaches. Fellow DL JJ Pegues, Walter Nolen, and Jared Ivey are all NFL prospects, as is leading sacker LB Suntarine Perkins. Florida’s O-line will face it’s stiffest challenge of the season this week, and have to improve markedly from the previous game. OTs Barber and Crenshaw-Dickson struggled with LSU’s edge rushers, and it took some elite playmaking form Lagway to offset that. With Lagway still hobbled by his hamstring injury, I’m not confident that he can escape the rush again this week without a better running game to keep Ole Miss from simply teeing off at the QB every down. Look for TE Hayden Hansen to play a huge role in helping out the OTs in pass protection. I’m hopeful that the RBs can be utilized more in the passing game to give Lagway some quick throws and relief from the pass rush. WRs Badger and Chimere Dike will have to make big plays if given the opportunity, and the potential is there, as the Rebel secondary has been exposed by teams that have given their QB time to throw. This is a very tough matchup for the Gators, and I’m not sure they can hold up for 4 quarters – especially if having to play from behind. The offense also has to run far more than 45 plays this week – I don’t see the defense holding up again if forced to play too many snaps/minutes.
The LSU win provided Napier with some respite from the pressure on his job security, and has even loosened the death grip that had it’s hold on the recruiting class. While I’m doubtful Florida wins on Saturday, another solid performance from the players along with a credible game plan from the coaches should continue the change in momentum. Another upset is always possible at The Swamp, but right now Ole Miss looks like a nearly complete team that also is mentally ready, unlike LSU was.
Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 4
Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 4 or 3 (win or loss – especially if it’s ugly)
Prediction:
Mississippi 34
Florida 20