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Sugar Bowl Preview

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(Author’s note: I want to dedicate this season’s articles and analysis in loving memory of my mother, Lenore Papas, who was always supportive of any of my endeavors in life.) 
 
If you’re wondering why this review came out so late, I wonder if it’s because of a little bit of news involving the Florida football program outside of just the game……you think?  LOL.
 
Drama has followed this program for at least 40 years, and it may have reached a crescendo this past week with the news of Coach Meyer’s “resignation”, followed the next day with his decision to accept a “leave of absence”.  Not to mention the health issues, the possible recruiting impact, the coaching staff in flux, and other minor things……geez.
 
How do you focus on only the game with all of this going on?  That’s the task of the players and coaches as they face Cincinnati in the final game for one of the great recruiting classes in Gator history.  After the disastrous performance against Alabama that shattered any hope of becoming one of the few teams in history to win 3 national championships in 4 years, what’s left?  Hopefully, the will to show the country and each other that they truly are a great team, and send out the seniors and some coaches on the winning note they deserve.
 
On offense, the Gators should be able to do whatever they please, as the Bearcat defense is suspect at best, and sometimes just plain bad.  I certainly think that after the debacle of play-calling in the SECCG, that the running game should be unleashed again, including more of the speed option to the edges to let Tim Tebow, Jeff Demps, and Chris Rainey dictate the tempo of the game.  The OL had jelled the last 3 games with Xavier Nixon at LT and Carl Johnson at LG, and even the pass protection had begun to come around.  UC’s secondary has holes as well, and Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper should be able to break some big plays when called upon.
 
The defense has no excuse to not play lights-out after their embarrassing collapse against Bama, and also should send Coach Strong out in style.  Cincinnati has a high-scoring offense with Bunnell native Mardy Gilyard having an A-A season at WR.  Tony Pike has a decent arm at QB, but has zero mobility and scrambling ability, and could be a sitting duck if the Gator secondary can lock down the WRs for a few seconds.  I would not be surprised at all to see Zach Collardo getting certain series to try and confuse the Gator defense with more spread running plays.  Pead is a solid RB, but nothing the Florida defense can’t handle.  Brandon Spokes needs to lead the defense in an emotional display.  The return of Carlos Dunlap will be felt — by the Bearcat offense.
 
Will Florida put on another putrid show, like Bama did against Utah last year?  I just can’t see it.  There is too much leadership to allow it, and the fact that Coach Meyer may be out of the spotlight for a while after this game should be more than enough extra impetus for an inspired Gator effort.
 
I’ll be back with a National Signing Day recap in February, which (unfortunately) will be more stressful than originally thought, as Florida tries to keep together what was until a week ago the #1 class in the country.
 
Prediction:           Florida 45        Cincinnati 28
 

Kentucky Review

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A dominating, gutsy performance, marred by an equally ugly injury to Tim Tebow.

The Gators came out and showed Kentucky, and the country, that they are still the #1 team in the country.  That was a dominating performance.  The first quarter ripped the heart out of the Mildcats just like last season, and the competitive phase was essentially over.  The Florida running game is one of the best in the country right now, and, once again, the passing game was not even needed.  That still may turn out to be the thing that derails the Gators as the season progresses, but so far, so good.

Florida’s defense toyed with Kentucky all game, allowing only one TD with a loss of focus and some shoddy tackling after the 31-0 lead was established.  The D-Line was able to generate some pressure on it’s own, while there were some well-timed corner blitzes to confuse the QB.  Ryan Stamper was all over the field, and may be the defensive MVP to date.  It appears Spikes will have to play through the Achilles’ tendonitis all season.  He looked better than he did against Tennessee, but he’s no where near 100%.

Of course the big happening was the concussion Tebow suffered with a 31-7 lead late in the 3rd quarter.  This has generated a ton of debate across the country.  My take is that I know he wants to play in that situation, and I know the staff wants him in for at least that last possession, but, with a 31-7 lead, inside the 10-yard line, with a FG in hand, there’s no reason to go empty and leave him open for a hit like that.  At least have a RB in the backfield for protection.  That game was already in hand.  My concern is essentially one of the situation.  That formation and play call are normal for a close game or a game in doubt, and I understand that.  But this situation did not call for it.  Now, there is doubt as to whether he may even be allowed to play against L$U, and that’s a shame.  I just hope he comes back only when medically ready, but the season could be jeopardized.  Time to coach up Johnny Brantley for a possible first career start.

I’ll be back with a preview of the L$U showdown next week.

Tebow’s Status

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Gainesville, Fla. — University of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow was released from University of Kentucky Chandler Medical Center Sunday morning after being held overnight for precautionary reasons.

“Tim is doing fine this morning,” said head coach Urban Meyer. “His CT scans came back and indicated that Tim suffered a concussion. Our medical and athletic training staff will continue to monitor him to determine how much rest and recovery he needs. We will have additional information and updates this week.”

Tennessee Review / Kentucky Preview

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Workmanlike effort……and get used to it.

That was pretty brutal to watch, as the Gators played a sloppy game against a high school-caliber offense from Tennessee, and the Volunteers drug Florida down to it’s ugly level.

It was basic football from the start to finish.  Obviously, the staff never felt threatened by Tennessee.  Coach Meyer is conservative to a large extent, and likes to run the ball and play field position. He’s said that many times, and I think many have forgotten it after last year’s fireworks. As long as the Gators have the lead, that’s what we can expect.

Coach Addazio hopefully mixes up the play-calling, and breaks tendencies as the season progresses (such as running the dive play so often on first down). Incorporating the RBs more often in the passing game could help loosen up the defense. There were some signs of doing this, but Tebow simply either didn’t recognize it, or threw the ball late too often. When he did hit Demps quickly and in rhythm, it was fun to watch.

Hopefully Deonte Thompson returns for L$U, because apparently the staff does not think there is a deep threat to stretch the field vertically without him. Not even one deep shot or jump ball to Cooper when he had single coverage.

This year’s defense is very good, but won’t be great until they improve against the run and get more 3-and-outs.  There were more missed tackles in that game since perhaps last year’s Ole Miss game, or quite possibly since 2007.  However, it did come out after the game that many players were battling the flu.  The tackling will be a point of emphasis for the defensive staff this week.

Well, at least the Vol fans (ever dwindling in number) can comfort themselves in that their Head Coach plays not to lose too badly, and didn’t even try to win the game.  We’ll see how long that plays as the season progresses and they get hammered by Georgia and Alabama, and possibly USCeast. 

Next up is Kentucky, and those guys had their pride stripped away last year and have a better offense than last year.  It’s the first road trip of the season, and perhaps the timing is good after all of the hand-wringing after the Tennessee game.  Most of the team and coaching staff is currently going through flu of various types, and it’s time to pull together and go get the win as a group through this adversity.

Kentucky will be primed after being completely embarrassed last year.  They come into this game off of a comeback win vs. Louisville that, while not pretty, showed them they could win despite some of their own mistakes, and it should give them some confidence.  Mike Hartline seems to have developed into a decent QB, and RB Derrick Locke is back after injury in 2008 to provide a home-run threat.  However, WR Randall Cobb is their most dangerous player, and is a big-time talent and playmaker.  The Gators have to win first down by stuffing the run and force the Wildcats into must-pass situations, where they are much less effective.  It will be interesting to see how much of the 3-3-5 look Coach Strong shows to try and confuse Hartline and throw off their short passing game.  It appears that Spikes will still be hobbled, but try and give it a go.  Personally, I hope he doesn’t start and isn’t needed.  Haden and Wright are also ill, and may only see limited time.  Fortunately, the Gators have depth at every defensive position and should be able to adapt.

On offense, I have to believe Florida still tries to pound the running game early and often, partly due to physical superiority, partly due to some unanswered quations at WR due to injury (DeonteThompson) and inexperience (Hines/Hammond/Lawrence).  With a week off coming, I won’t be surprised at all to see Tebow get at least 12-15 carries, especially if other teams start copying Tennessee’s defensive scheme of forcing Tebow to keep the ball on the option.  Cornerback Trevard Lindley and middle linebacker Micah Johnson are all-SEC candidiates for UK’s defense, but there is no way that their talent across the board approaches Tennessee’s, and I do expect some plays of 20+ yards from the Gators.  I’m still waiting on the staff to incorporate more passes to the RBs, and a healthier Aaron Hernandez will be a big boost against zone defenses.  Florida’s interior O-Line should have it’s way most of the evening.

With all the the crap in the media and from Lame Kiffen after last week’s game, along with the flu bug that has hit the Gators pretty hard, this is another week where Florida just needs to get the win, avoid serious injuries, and move on to the bigger games ahead.  Hopefully the weather is OK by gametime and the field is drying out after expected rain most of Friday and into Saturday.

Prediction – Florida 31      Kentucky 14

Troy Review / Tennessee Preview

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It was a slow start and fast finish for the Gators as they overpowered Troy in the Swamp.  The play of both teams mirrored the dreary weather to start the game, with both teams putting the ball on the ground multiple times.  The Florida defense dominated all day, holding the Trojans to under 150 yards of offense.  It was when Tim Tebow found his rhythm and the O-Line started pounding away that the offense came to life, scoring 28 points in the 2nd quarter to end any suspense early.

The Gator defense showed more looks and blitzes than in the opener, but it was obvious that they could dictate the action all afternoon.  The secondary looked much better with Janoris Jenkins back in the lineup, and the D-Line showed a better pass rush and penetration vs. the run.  Both Demps and Rainey looked very good — Rainey really follows his blocking well.  Thompson finally started catching the ball, and showed why he can be the deep threat this year.  Hopefully he is healthy enough to play well this week.  Cooper was an animal again — he’s perhaps the best blocking WR in the country, and still fast as hell.  Once Tebow started running the ball and punishing defenders, the entire offense fed off the energy and blew Troy off the field.

Now it’s Tennessee week, and Lame Kiffen comes to the Swamp to get his comeuppance.  The Volunteers once again have a solid defense, but don’t have the depth and playmaking ability there that they have had in the past.  Eric Berry can’t play all 11 positions, and Florida should be able to scheme around him if necessary.  The formula still remains the same for Florida — pound away with a great running game featuring the best interior OL in the country, hit the edges on the speed option with Tebow, Demps, and Rainey, then hit the big pass plays to Cooper, Thompson, and Hernandez.  It’s too bad Hernandez is the only real TE on the roster this year, as the staff has to protect him somewhat to last through an entire season.  No one on the Volunteer defense can match up with him, unless it’s Berry or another CB.

Tennessee will start Jonothan Crompton at QB, and his confidence has to be in shambles.  Another desultory effort against UCLA, and the fans (and I think certain teammates) are questioning him openly.  The Vols have no downfield threats in the passing game, as their WRs lack elite speed, and their one true threat, Gerald Jones, is not 100% healthy.  Of course, they have nothing to lose in this game, and I have to think they gamble with some deep throws early and possibly often.  They still have a solid running game, with two good backs in Hardesty and Brown, but their OL has zero depth, and isn’t 100% healthy, either.  Is the game plan to somehow try and control the clock and keep Tebow and Co. off the field, or do they go crazy and open up the entire playbook?  Somehow, they have to protect Crompton better, but that’s going to be difficult against Cunningham, Dunlap, and Spikes, and a defense out to punish Tennessee.

There has been so much hype leading up to this game, mostly due to Lame’s big mouth.  The guy just doesn’t get it, and it’s already obvious to me that even when he tries to compliment another team, he doesn’t really mean it — just like most of what comes out of his pie hole.  Of course the entire fan base wants a 60-point win and to take out the Vols with extreme prejudice, but unless they completely implode and suffer a rash of turnovers, there is still too much talent and pride among their players to allow it.  I’ll be happy with a solid win with no major injuries……and at least one sign from Coach Meyer (a late time out or two?) that rubs Lame’s face in it.  Pounding away at them in the second half with the Pouncey twins, Carl Johnson, and a physical running game, in the heat and humidity, with Tennessee knowing it can’t compete or win, is satisfying enough.  There are plenty of big games coming up later this season, and there’s no need to show too much, even this week.

 Prediction – Florida 38      Tennessee 10