This week’s game turns out to be an early season crossroad for the Gators.  Any SEC game is important, especially the conference opener.  But after dealing with the fallout of the debacle against Miami and having 2 weeks to hear about how bad the offense is, it’s time to see if there is any leadership in the offensive ranks, and also to see if the coaching staff has made adjustments to both schemes and the depth chart to get things moving in a positive direction.

Tennessee comes to the Swamp after getting blown out at Oregon.  Their first 2 easy wins were exposed as fraudulent, as their overall lack of talent, especially on defense, was made evident.  Other than some returning starters on the OL and 2 good RBs, their offense is a total change from last season.  There will be some serious growing pains experienced this year, and it will take new head coach Butch Jones years of recruiting before he even has a chance to compete at the upper-echelon of the SEC.  QB Justin Worley has played it safe with short throws to prevent turnovers, and RBs Rajion Neal and Marlin Lane are solid SEC backs, but they haven’t played against a quality defense like Florida’s yet.  No single WR has emerged yet, and the passes have been spread out among many, including the RBs and TEs, but no one real threat exists right now.  I expect a heavy dose of running to try and shorten the game as long as the score is manageable.

It’s all about the performance of the Gator offense this week – starting with the health of the OL.  D.J. Humphries will play with a sore knee, and Kyle Koehne will start at RT in place of injured Tyler Moore.  Jon Halapio may return to start at RG (which may or may not be a blessing given his struggles with pass protection), and the fact is he will likely be less than 100% due to the torn pectoral muscle he sustained in August.  The OL is not the best shape right now, and Tim Davis has a lot of coaching to do.  If this unit struggles this week against a mediocre at best Volunteer defense, it’s gonna be a long year in Gainesville.

The passing game will again be scrutinized, to see if Jeff Driskel can continue to improve on reading defenses and getting rid of the ball quickly to eliminate mistakes.  He is under a LOT of pressure to lead the offense to better success in scoring.  The running backs, with Matt Jones supposedly back to 100% health, should be fine.  The real question remains who will consistently perform at WR?  Quinton Dunbar had a big game at Miami, and Solomon Patton made some big plays……but can they do this on a regular basis?  Trey Burton needs to re-focus, both on ball security and also reading the defense if he is in the Wildcat formation.  It’s about time to let one of the freshmen WRs get the chance to show something – either DeMarcus Robinson or Ahmad Fulwood have to step up and start to show the ability they flashed during fall practice.  Expect zero production form the TE position, unless Kent Taylor or Colin Thompson are given the chance to show something – they can’t be any worse than Clay Burton catching (or not catching) the ball.  Finally, where are the throws to the RBs?  Matt Jones drew raves in fall camp, but wasn’t really utilized in this way against the ‘Canes.

The Gator defense has played exceptionally well so far, and again will lead this team.  They should not have too much trouble controlling Tennessee’s offense, as they have a decided advantage in talent and experience.  The real worry (other than injuries) is whether this group can keep producing at a high level if the offense continues to struggle, and if eventually a rift develops between the offensive and defensive players.  All the talk of teamwork and supporting each other is nice, but in a situation like that, it doesn’t matter what level of football you are talking about – eventually problems crop up in the locker room, and internal strife starts to tear a team apart.

I expect an inspired, fast start, from the Gators, as they will have 2 weeks of frustration to take out on the Vols.  What I’m more interested in is seeing solid OL play and better utilization of the talent by the coaches as the game and season progress.  A majority of team goals are still out there for Florida despite the disappointing loss in Miami, and that drive starts now.  Time to see if this group of Gators has what it takes to overcome adversity and move forward.

Prediction:  Florida 31              Tennessee 13

I came very close to a one word article – Turnovers.  But I know that so many of you are ready to hear the bitter details instead……I could never disappoint you like that!

What a disheartening effort by the offense, essentially giving the game away to scUM, which now opens a Pandora’s box of questions and concerns for this team that the staff has to find answers for.  It wasn’t the true freshmen or inexperienced players that blew this game – guys like Trey Burton, DJ Humphries, Tyler Moore, and to an extent, Jeff Driskel, have to perform better.

3 turnovers inside the 20?!  Stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 25?!  Allowing a sack inside your own 10-yard line, leading to the winning (or losing) score?!  Wow – I’m so glad I was there to witness that disaster…..and to listen to the scUM “fans” brag about how they are “back”……what a freakin’ joke.

The Gator defense, while giving up the one big pass play in the 1st quarter, was heroic.  They absolutely stuffed the ‘Canes after the 1st quarter, and allowed basically nothing the rest of the game.  It must have been hard for those guys to watch the offense time and again blow chances at taking the lead, so the defense could close out the win.  Easley, Powell, and the entire D-Line dominated, and the secondary was money, except for the one mistake by freshman Marcus Maye – but there’s no way anyone can pin this loss on that one play.  If these guys stay healthy, and aren’t worn down trying to bail out an ineffective offense as the season progresses, they could turn out every bit as good overall as 2012.

The running game, while not breaking any big runs, was pushing the scUM defense back slowly and surely and wearing them down……until the implosions in the red zone.  Matt Jones had the unfortunate fumble, but did OK in his first playing time after the viral illness – he will improve with more reps.  Mack Brown is functional as a backup, but has no explosion or breakaway speed – he could have broken off some big chunks of yardage if he had better speed.  Driskel is getting some criticism for his play, but he did throw for 291 yards and hit some deep throws.  Sadly, he missed a sure TD in the 2nd quarter when Dunbar was 20 yards behind the secondary, and still seemed hesitant when reading the defense at times.  Improved – yes, but still a ways to go……if it happens.  Patton certainly played much bigger than his physical stature, making some big plays downfield that have sorely lacking from this offense.  Quinton Dunbar certainly rose to the occasion going home to South Florida – he made some tough catches and ran hard with the ball.  Finally, this team has ZERO play form the TE position.  Clay Burton has earned a seat on the bench with all of his drops and a stupid personal foul penalty that killed the opening drive.  Let one of the young guys, either Taylor or Thompson, get their chance to play.  This position could be so critical in helping out Driskel……but right now there is no production.

Special Teams were very good.  Harden was fine on kicks (when given the chance), although he still is not getting his kickoffs into the end zone.  Kickoff and punt coverage were excellent.  They even generated the first scoring opportunity with Purifoy’s blocked punt.

The coaching and playcalling were strangely inconsistent at times.  Going for 2 was rather Zookish.  Putting Burton in the Wildcat on 1st and goal at the 8, when Driskel had the offense rolling, was poorly timed.  At least Burton could learn to exercise better judgement and hand the ball off on the jet sweep occasionally, where Patton would likely have scored, instead of taking a 2 yard loss……again.  Then he fumbles inside the 10 exercising poor ball security……he needs to refocus……it’s a team game.  The staff not calling a time out before the 4th-and-1 play to give Driskel better options, instead of trying to sneak against a 9-man front, was hugely disappointing.  The second interception, even after calling a time out, was caused by poor execution by the receivers – neither one even was looking back for the quick flat pass.

And best of all……the Gators have a extra week off to hear how bad they played.  I can only hope that the injuries to both OTs aren’t serious, and that both can play against Tennessee.  There is a TON of work to do……starting with getting back to fundamentals.  This team has to get it’s mind right……and fast.

See you next week with my preview of the Tennessee game.  Go Gators!

2013 got off to a successful start with a workmanlike, if unspectacular, win over Toledo in the Swamp.  Florida controlled both sides of the LOS as expected.  The OL was able to establish the running game early to control time-of-possession and keep the game plan vanilla so Miami would not have much to look at on film.  Mack Brown did a solid job at RB and didn’t turn the ball over.  The pass blocking already looks like it could be a problem (again), as both Humphries and Moore allowed sacks.  Driskel was accurate and looked improved overall, but still holds the ball too long on occasion – he was also late on some throws and simply did not throw to some open receivers.  The second half was not exciting to watch on offense, as the Gators played very conservatively with the lead and allowed the Rockets to load the box on defense to stop the run.  Still minimal downfield passing – that has to change this week.

The defense overcame the loss of a handful of key players due to suspension and was able to contain a quick QB and veteran offense, allowing only 2 drives of significance.  Easley led the way on the DL and was disruptive all game.  There were few sacks and pressures, but that was mainly a result of a quick passing game.  The secondary is definitely the strength of this defense, and it should be difficult for opponents to consistently move the ball through the air all season.  Watkins did well stepping back in at CB for Purifoy after practicing all off-season at safety.  Roberson blanketed his assignment as usual.  Riggs was in good position all game at safety.  Even freshman Marcus Maye saw plenty of action.  The LBs did well in coverage, and also did not allow the QB to keep drives alive with designed runs or scrambles.

Best of all – no significant injuries.

Now it’s on to Miami, and a huge showdown with the Hurricanes.  Since this series was discontinued as an annual game after 1987, the scUM “fans” always whine about how the Gators are running scared……well, Gator Nation will be represented in force this Saturday.  As always, there are recruiting ramifications tied to this game.  Florida has made some inroads recently into South Florida, and already has a handful of key prospects committed for 2014 – Al Golden is desperately trying to re-build the “fence” around South Florida, but it has a lot of holes in it right now.

It’s time to see if the Gator offense is truly improved from 2012 and can show effective balance when it has to.  Letting teams continue to disregard any downfield passing game and crowd the box on defense with 8-9 guys within 10 yards of the LOS is a recipe for losing against a good opponent.  There have been a lot of positive words leaking out from fall practice that Driskel looks better as a passer and is reading defenses better – it’s time to see it on the field.  He has to make quicker reads and improve on picking out the open receiver.   It appears that the RBs will be incorporated into the passing game more this year, and that helps, but it’s time for the WRs to show they can contribute and stretch the defense and make plays.  Burton looked good on the intermediate routes and should be effective out of the slot.  It may fall on the true freshmen – Fulwood and Robinson – to help Dunbar out making some plays downfield.  The running game gets a huge boost with the return of Matt Jones from illness.  He has the size to keep the chains moving, but is also an excellent receiver.  It will be interesting to see how many snaps he gets, and whether he is used as a decoy on play-action passes.  Until this offense proves it can score 30+ points if needed, ball security is paramount – the margin of error is too thin to overcome a rash of turnovers.

The Gator defense will have it’s full complement of players back, and will be challenged by a veteran Miami offense.  QB Stephen Morris runs a pro-style attack and has weapons around him – RB in Duke Johnson is a quick back who is dangerous in space, and WRs Herb Waters and Philip Dorsett can get deep.  Miami is also a good screen team – look for this early on if the Gator D-Line is causing problems for them.  The ‘Cane OL is experienced and has some quality players in Shane McDermott, Brandon Linder, and Seantrel Henderson.  This will be a good challenge for a young and inexperienced (in some areas) Gator defense.  Miami should score some points – we’ll see how the Gator defense responds and makes adjustments as the game progresses, and if the younger players can keep their poise.   The return of Purifoy bolsters the secondary, which should relish the challenge this week to prove to the country how good it can be.  The return of Tank Morrison helps a thin LB corps – this unit will be tested by containing Johnson, but also will see some screen passes and draw plays……discipline is key this week.  The DL will have a worthy opponent to test it – Easley needs to continue to make plays, and it’s time for Fowler, Bullard, and Powell to turn up the heat on the pass rush – Morris can be rattled and turn the ball over if pressured.

Finally, the Florida special teams need to step up and be solid this week.  I fully expect some trickeration from scUM, and the coverage units had better be ready.  Kyle Christy needs to get his punting back to 2012 form.  The kickoffs by Austin Hardin were too short and lacked the height needed to offset the distance – that combination doesn’t work against quality opponents.  The fall practice reports weren’t very stellar – we will see very soon if this unit can hold things together.  If they can even approach the outstanding performance of 2012 (that would be hard to do), then they will be fine.

This is a huge game for Miami, and they are even going the “white-out” route for their “fans”.  That should at least put some lipstick on that pig, as the thugs and vagrants that usually show up will at least look clean on the outside……although all of the gold chains and teeth could be blinding in the sunlight.  Florida needs to be ready for anything on defense, as the ‘Canes are desperate to win this game to show their “fans” and recruits they are “back”.  As long as the Gators can withstand the early rush of emotion and settle in, they should be OK.  This game could be similar to what the Texas A&M game was last season – either a springboard to a very good year, or a real downer and confidence-shaking loss.  The Florida coaching staff has shown it’s ability to prepare for tough road environments and to make adjustments during the game or at halftime to win – all of those attributes will again be put to the test.  On a neutral field or at the Swamp, I would be a lot more confident that the Gators would win, as they have the better team.  However, on the road, with ACC referees likely pulling their usual stunts, strange things can happen.  This looks like a game that could be decided in the 4th quarter.  We will see if Muschamp decided to shut things down against Toledo in the second half, or if the struggles on offense will continue into 2013.  At least the Gators are used to a noon kickoff game already – they should be able to handle the heat and humidity.

Prediction – Florida 24      Miami 20

Florida kicks off the 2013 season against a solid MAC team in the Toledo Rockets.  Toledo returns five All-MAC players on the offensive side of the ball. Led by senior quarterback Terrance Owens, the Rockets have a balanced, spread out attack.  Owens is a similar style quarterback to Jeff Driskel in that he has a strong arm but is also a threat to take off out of the pocket and can hurt you with his mobility.

The next key player on the depth chart is running back David Fluellen.  Despite missing one game and portions of two more, he still amassed 1,498 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground last season.  He’s also an effective pass catcher out of the backfield, where he had 32 receptions for 246 yards in 2012.

Bernard Reedy leads a talented group of receivers that return the top six pass catchers from a year ago.  Reedy caught over 80 passes last year for over 1,100 yards.  He is also a dangerous KO returner.

Florida needs to take advantage of the Rocket defense.  15 players on the two-deep depth chart are either sophomores or freshmen.  All of that turnover might be a good thing for a defense that ranked 12th in the MAC in total defense after giving up over 473 yards per game last season.

Anyone who thinks Toledo will roll over for the Gators is mistaken.

The focus will be on the Gator offense, as it has to perform better than last season to help out the defense more, and also make Florida a more balanced overall team.  Despite all of the offseason hopes, a re-tooled OL and WR corps has to prove it can give Jeff Driskel the help he needs to improve as a passer.  With no qualified backup, he needs to stay upright this year, and can’t afford to take as many chances as a runner.  The likely absence of Matt Jones due to a lingering viral illness puts a lot of pressure on inexperienced Mack Brown, former walkon Mark Herndon, and freshmen Kelvin Taylor and Adam Lane to take up the slack by committee.   It will be interesting to see if the WR play finally improves after 2 years of basically nothing.  The 2 highly-touted freshman – Demarcus Robinson and Ahmad Fulwood – will play immediately.  Also, the loss of Jordan Reed at TE could force OC Brent Pease to scheme an attack that doesn’t have a significant contribution from there unless either Kent Taylor or Colin Thompson show early on they can contribute.  The latest bad news is that Chaz Green is out for the season due to surgery for a torn labrum.  Tyler Moore gets the chance to show he can play in the SEC, and Kyle Koehne gets even more reps now.  Not a good situation.

The defense will be talented, but the key losses at DT, LB, and S could be felt early until the new faces gain experience.  Toledo’s offense could pose some problems for the inexperienced and/or new guys like Tank Morrison and MikeTaylor at LB, and Jaylen Watkins and Cody Riggs at safety, who played mostly CB previously in their careers.  Ron Powell must show early on he has recovered from knee surgery and provide a pass rush threat from the OLB spot.  Dominique Easley must lead a young DL – he’ll have help from Dante Fowler and Jon Bullard at DE.  These guys must get penetration and pressure the QB without the need for too much blitzing.

I could see this game remaining competitive into the second half, as Florida will not want to show too much on offense (unless it becomes necessary), while the defense could struggle until it settles in.  This isn’t a glorified scrimmage, but could prove useful in gearing up for a huge game 2 vs. Miami.  As always, the mantra for game 1 is NO SERIOUS INJURIES.

Prediction:  Florida 31      Toledo 17

2013 promises to be a very interesting season for the Florida Gators.  There are a lot of inexperienced and/or new faces stepping into key roles, while certain players such as Jeff Driskel and Jon Harrison on offense and Dominique Easley and Ron Powell on defense have to assume a leadership role from the start.  After a bitter end to a great regular season came in the lifeless choke job against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl, there is plenty of reason for the players to be motivated this year.  The main goal is to get back to Atlanta for the first time since 2009, which can only happen by beating Georgia and possibly South Carolina.  Once again the SEC has screwed the Gators with a conference schedule that is much more difficult than those other 2 teams.  An off-season filled with injuries, illness, and ancillary off-the-field distractions has dampened some enthusiasm since the start of June.  Somehow this team has find some early momentum.

Offense

The offensive line will see an almost complete makeover.  Jon Harrison is back to anchor the middle, but do to either preseason injuries or graduation the other 4 spots will see some combination of new faces.  Transfers Tyler Moore from Nebraska and Max Garcia from Maryland are slated to see significant time at tackle and guard, respectively.   G John Halapio will be battling a pectoral injury likely throughout the entire season.  DJ Humphries has a lot of pressure to live up to his recruiting hype at LT, while Moore will rotate at RT with Kyle Koehne after a shoulder injury to Chaz Green has shelved him for the entire season – terrible for the rotation and depth.  Freshmen Cameron Dillard and Octavious Jackson, and JuCo Trenton Brown will have to provide depth.  The early indications are that this unit as a whole would show improvement over last year’s group, but I always worry when transfers are in the mix, maybe even more so than with guys that have been on the roster……plus the injuries.  If Jeff Driskel and the passing game are to improve to help balance the offense in 2013, this unit has to lead the way.  Coach Tim Davis did a very good job in 2012 dealing with many injuries and frankly some mediocre talent, so it will be interesting to see what he can get out of this group.

At QB, much offseason talk has been about the development of Driskel as a passer, and deservedly so.  His offseason was productive, getting the opportunity to attend the Manning QB Camp, and also benefitting from continuity at the OC position.  Much of the fortunes for this season ride not on his physical skills, but improvement (or lack thereof) in his decision-making.  He has to go through his progressions, as there were a lot of open receivers missed last year.  Also, given the lack of depth and experience of the backups, I have the feeling he will be asked by the coaches to be more judicious in running the ball this season, as an injury to him could wipe out any hope for a big year.  Tyler Murphy seems to have the #2 job in fall practice, but that may be mainly a function of his experience in the program as opposed to any long-term viability.  Coach Brent Pease should be able to open up the playbook more in 2013 and show more diversity in his play-calling.

The RB depth chart looks solid this year.  Matt Jones is the clear #1 guy, but may miss the first 1-2 games with a lingering viral infection.  Not a good way to open the season, given that the backups, while flashing some raw talent, are either inexperienced or simply have not warranted too many carries up to now.  Freshmen Kelvin Taylor and Adam Lane will be future contributors, while Mack Brown has probably his best (and maybe last) chance to show he belongs in the SEC.  Former walkon Mark Herndon seems to be in the mix as well.  Hunter Joyer is back to provide experience and tough lead blocking at FB.  Coach Brian White has solid talent to work with, but has to make up for the early potential loss of Jones by piecing together a workable rotation.

The WR unit has been under the microscope given the low level of performance and output the past 2 season, and simply must improve – now.  Quinton Dunbar and Latroy Pittman have the most experience returning, but heralded true freshmen Demarcus Robinson and Ahmad Fulwood will get immediate time in the rotation – unfortunately mostly out of necessity.  Solomon Patton is back from his mid-season injury, and HB/RB/QB/WR Trey Burton seems to be poised to get a lot of snaps in the slot.  The reviews in fall practice have been mostly good for the young guys, but the SEC is a tough place to learn on the fly.  New WR coach Joker Phillips has a lot of work to do with this group to help Driskel and the entire offense out in 2013.

The TE position is essentially a blank slate, as Jordan Reed left for the NFL as really the only contributor from last year.  Kent Taylor and Colin Thompson are the 2 guys in the rotation now.  Taylor has shown some pass-catching ability and speed, but is limited as an in-line blocker unless he can add more weight to his 225-lb. frame.  Thompson has great size at 6’4”, 255, and should be solid in the running game – but can he show at least some ability as a receiver to not tip off the likely play-calling when he is on the field?  I think he has the chance to be a very good SEC-level player with some experience and good health.  Coach Derek Lewis has a huge task in front of him.

It’s time for the offense to carry its weight in 2013, to give a young defense the chance to develop and get some occasional rest, but also to improve the team overall to truly be an elite contender.  There is a lot of promise, but until it is proven against quality competition, I’ll remain somewhat skeptical.

Defense

To use a football analogy, the success of the  2013 defense will be predicated on “strength up the middle”.  Gone are NFL draft picks Sharrif Floyd, Jelani Jenkins, Jon Bostic, Josh Evans, the playmaker of the group, Matt Elam, and also Omar Hunter.  That’s a lot of great talent lost, and it’s up to a promising group of young guys to make up for those losses.

On the D-Line, DT Leon Orr has to step up to realize a level of play that matches his physical ability, while DT Dominique Easley must stay healthy and productive as the leader of the unit.  Dante Fowler and Jon Bullard could be one of the best DE tandems in the SEC this year.  Quality depth is the biggest concern here as Damian Jacobs, JuCo transfer Darius Cummings, and young players like Bryan Cox Jr., Caleb Brantley, and Jay-nard Bostwick have to provide some effective snaps to relieve the starters.  New DL coach Brad Lawing has an excellent track record, and hopefully can mold this unit into an effective one as the season progresses.

At LB, Tank Morrison should take the next step (once he returns from suspension) at MLB, with Mike Taylor a solid backup.  Ronald Powell is back after missing all of 2012 due to a knee injury, and is being relied upon heavily to pressure the QB and disrupt offenses this year.  Daniel McMillan and Jarrad Davis will play as a true freshmen and have promise.  Mike Taylor, Neiron Ball, and Darren Kitchens have some experience and play smart, but are undersized SEC LBs.  This group cannot afford any injuries, as there simply is not enough depth to overcome any significant losses.  LB coaches DJ Durkin and Jeff Choate have their work cut out for them.

The secondary has likely the best CB rotation in the SEC and possibly the country with Marcus Roberson and Loucheiz Purifoy leading the way.  Brian Poole will play a lot in nickel packages in the slot, while freshman Vernon Hargreaves III looks to eventually become the next great Gator CB – he will play from the start.  The safety position is wide open with the departure of Elam and Evans.  Jaylen Watkins and Cody Riggs have experience and will likely start, but redshirt freshmen Marcus Maye and Rhaheim Ledbetter, and true freshman Keanu Neal will play this year, and probably early.  Coach Travaris Robinson has done a great job in his short time at Florida.

Knowing the defensive coaching prowess of Will Muschamp and the staff he’s assembled, it’s difficult to see a significant drop-off in the performance of the defense as a whole, but until the games start, I’m unsure as to how the playmaking abilities that were lost can be made up for this year.  This could be another strong unit by the end of the season, but early growing pains and inexperience could lead to a few losses.

Special Teams

This unit was exactly that in 2012, as Florida had one the best overall groups in the nation.  The loss of PK Caleb Sturgis will not be easily replaced – it will affect how aggressive the offense will be, and could contribute to a few losses especially if Austin Harden struggles.  Kyle Christy was a revelation at P last year, and if he can even come close to that performance again, that will help Coach Muschamp with winning the field position battle and gain the “hidden yards” so important in SEC football.  The loss of Andre Debose was a huge blow, as he was one of the most dangerous KO return men in the country.  It’s a wide open field of candidates to replace him.  Coach Choate assumes the reins from Coach Durkin, and has a tough act to follow.

Schedule

The schedule is again challenging, as the Gators will face 5 preseason Top 25 teams, including the usual SEC gauntlet.  Florida opens with Toledo, a solid MAC team with a very good offense that could stress the young defense and force the Gator offense to perhaps open things up more than the staff would prefer before going on the road to play Miami in game 2.  That game could turn out similar to the Texas A&M game from 2012 – either a springboard to a big season and a confidence-builder, or a real letdown leading to more questions than answers going into the SEC schedule.  The ‘Canes will be incredibly hyped for that one, and expect them to throw everything they have at Florida to win that game.  If the Gators struggle on offense and/or turn the ball over, that could very well be a loss.  After a bye week, the SEC schedule opens with the traditional matchup with Tennessee.  The Vols are essentially starting over on offense will have an almost entirely new starting lineup as well as a new head coach.  They also lost the handful of decent defenders they had from 2012, and will be hard-pressed to keep this game competitive throughout the second half.  Next comes the first SEC road trip to Kentucky, with a new head coach in Mark Stoops who has their fan base excited……for some reason.  They have a long way to go before really scaring a team like Florida, although weird things happen on the road.  Arkansas then comes to the Swamp, another team featuring a new head coach in Bret Bielema, who comes from Big 10/11/12/whatever country to the SEC.  He’ll understand quickly why Urban Meyer bailed on Florida and facing the SEC every season.  Next up is a trip to LSU, who will have major payback on it’s mind after Florida’s dominating, physical win at the Swamp.  Even with a huge amount of losses on the defensive side, they will be ready for the Gators.  A new venue then awaits, as Florida travels to Columbia to face Missouri in a possible trap game, after a tough game at LSU and prior to meeting Georgia.  A key off week then precedes a huge game for Muschamp, as he has to get over the hump and beat the Puppies to have any realistic shot at getting to Atlanta.  Vanderbilt comes to the Swamp for their annual ugly, closer-than-expected loss, then what could be a battle for the SEC East title looms at South Carolina, another team with revenge on its mind after they imploded with turnovers at the Swamp.  Finally, the Gators return home for the final 2 games of the season.  Georgia Southern comes in for a big payday, and then the Criminoles slither in from Taliban City, I’m sure feeling proud of another good win-loss record built on a patsy Almost Competitive Conference schedule.

Predictions

Toledo (Win – could be closer than expected)

@Miami (Win – could easily be decided in the 4th quarter)

Tennessee (Win – the Vols are simply talent-deficient)

@Kentucky (Win – too much turnover in talent and coaching to be ready for a quality opponent)

Arkansas (Win – Bielema’s coaching will be to control the clock and make this a 2nd-half game)

@LSU (Loss – even with a young defense, the Tigers have payback in mind in Death Valley)

@Missouri (Win – trap game after a tough loss; could be another game decided in the 4th quarter)

Georgia @Jax (Loss – it pains me to say this, but Muschamp hasn’t won this one yet)

Vanderbilt (Win – typical close game with the Commodores after a grueling SEC schedule)

@South Carolina (Loss – another revenge game, and Florida does not play well at Columbia)

Georgia Southern (Win – beat an outmanned opponent while resting up for F$U)

Florida $t. (Win – with no SECCG to get ready for, all the eggs get thrown on this basket, and the Gators use the Swamp to put F$U in their place – again)

9-3 overall (5-3 SEC)

Overall Assessment

Florida will have to avoid the injury bug at some key positions even more than usual this season in order to have any chance at getting to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.  The pre-season injuries to Halapio, Green, and Debose, and the illness that Matt Jones is fighting through have potentially stunted the growth of the offense.  Despite that, I’m in the camp that by the end of the season this team could be better and more balanced than the 2012 team, but not match the 11-1 record from 2012.  Will Muschamp has built an excellent staff and is proving to be a solid evaluator of the talent needed to compete at a high level in the SEC.  Unfortunately, I don’t think this group can overcome the losses on defense, and has yet to develop a winning identity on offense.  The off-the-field news of Aaron Hernandez has been a real downer as well.  I can’t seem to shake the feeling that things are not going to fall Florida’s way this season like they did in 2012.  Perhaps even 9 wins is a stretch.

No matter – the season starts this Saturday.  HEEEEEEEEEEEERE COME THE GATORS!!!

REDEMPTION

It was an early and, in retrospect, an overall beatdown and domination of the Criminoles in Taliban City, helping to take away most of the stench of last year’s embarrassment at the Swamp.  The 37-26 final score is not indicative of the difference in quality of these two teams.

Florida handled it’s business again, showing the nation and the in-state recruits that the Gators are back on top of the state in a big way, with more to come.  Even with the disappointing 3rd quarter that gave F$U a false sense of hope, Florida maintained it’s composure, relying on the crucible of playing the best teams in the country both at home and on the road to physically and emotionally crush the weak-ass ACC’s best team……what a joke.  In retrospect, it was even better to watch that false sense of hope get snapped away from F$U and it’s “fans”.  Chop that!

It was gut-check time in the 3rd quarter after an uncharacteristically poor punt by Kyle Christy and then a fumbled exchange between Jeff Driskel and Mike Gillislee allowed F$U easy points and the illusion that it had a chance.  That just made it all the sweeter to make then feel the pain of having their will taken away from them and wilting against a legitimate opponent – an SEC opponent, not someone from the Almost Competitive Conference.

The offensive game plan was exactly what was needed.  A lot of early throws and rollouts to protect Driskel early and loosen up the defensive front seven, then going to work pounding away with 6 and sometime 7 OL, with the Criminoles not being able to do a thing about it.  Gillislee went over 1,000 yards for the season, providing the exclamation point to both the game and his entire season with his TD run that gave Florida the lead for good.  Shame on the Dazzler and the Cheeseburger for ignoring this guy.  Driskel was efficient and tough as nails, playing through a painful ankle injury and going the distance and leading his team.  Great blocking by the OL, with special mention to Xavier Nixon – the X-Man had a great game, and showed what he (and the entire OL) could do if healthy.  The WRs played tough and blocked well, and also provided some clutch yards after the catch. Big time 3rd-and-long catch and run by Jordan Reed near the end of the 3rd quarter to set up Caleb Sturgis’ 3rd FG  and open the floodgates.  Total dominance of time of possession, and a score that should have been a lot worse, given the blown TD opportunity on the fake FG attempt in the 1st quarter and the 3rd quarter troubles.

The defense owned the LOS all night, and shut down the F$U running game less some scrambles by one of Florida’s MVPs – EJ Manuel – who once again shrunk against the Gator defense and was exposed for the mediocre passer he is.  Between him and Dumbo Fisher, Dan Quinn and Will Muschamp knew going in they had a distinct advantage.  The Criminoles never put together a decent scoring drive, and Florida brought the pain all night, especially the crushing hit by Tank Morrison on Manuel that knocked him out of the game temporarily, and really switched the momentum completely back to Florida.  Another super effort from Sharrif Floyd, who wreaked havoc at the LOS in likely his next-to-last college game before going to the NFL as a 1st-round draft pick.  The Gator secondary was excellent, making plays, tackling well, getting turnovers, and not allowing any consistent drives through the air.

Florida finishes 2012 11-1 and #3 in the BCS rankings, just missing out on the BCSCG due to Notre Shame’s unbelievable luck and an unfortunate turnover-filled game against overrated Georgia, which is definitely more than most had hoped for or predicted.  A likely Sugar Bowl reward awaits a team that by the end of the season could stand toe-to-toe with anyone.  Tremendous physical toughness and emotional resolve all season, a reflection of the great job by the coaching and strength and conditioning staffs.

Quite the fast flip from 2010, and real hope for the future and proof that Muschamp can get it done in the SEC.  See you soon with the bowl preview.

What a great season!  As always, it’s great to be a Florida Gator!

Florida finished 2012 with only it’s 3rd 7-0 record at the Swamp with a workmanlike 23-0 shutout over JSU.  Again, another dull effort by the offense, as the game plan was vanilla and the fans had to watch the Gators slog through this game, hoping against hope that there is an inspired effort left in them the last regular season game.

Brissett did what little he was asked to do, playing it safe and not turning the ball over, as the defense had the game well in hand throughout.  Lots of short, safe throws to keep the chains moving.  Gillislee had a nice Senior Day with over 100 yards and a TD, and should go over 1,000 rushing yards for the season before it’s over – quite the accomplishment after he was essentially forgotten by the previous staff.  The O-Line is still beat up, but each of the starting 5 from early in the year all saw some action.

The defense got it’s second shutout of the year with another solid effort.  Jon Bostic had a great Senior Day moment with a pick-6.  The unit as a whole never was really challenged after the first JSU drive of the day ended with a missed FG.  The D-Line is still banged up at DT, but everyone will give it a go in the last game.

It’s on to Taliban City to face the Criminoles in the regular season finale, and there’s a ton at stake for Florida in terms of BCS implications.  Finding a way to pull out a win would really set the Gators up nicely to at least get a BCS bowl game invite, and also give them an outside shot at sneaking in to the BCSCG if things fell their way.  However, there is a lot of work to do this week, and the offense has to somehow generate some points to give the defense a chance to pull it off.

No surprise here – it’s pretty much entirely up to the Florida OL to manage some semblance of a run game and allow time for a controlled passing attack to provide some balance and keep the defense from wearing down.  The OTs are in the spotlight, as they have to keep the F$U DEs out of the backfield and allow whomever is at QB the time to make some plays.  Werner and Carradine have had good seasons, and will be a challenge for Florida.

There is no reason to doubt that the Criminoles will dare Florida to throw, putting 8 and 9 men in the box and challenging the WRs to make plays.  The good news is that it appears Driskel is well enough to start, but no one will know for sure if he limited as a runner or when scrambling due to his ankle injury until the game starts.  Brent Pease has to scheme up some plays to give his offense help and get the F$U defense to back off the LOS somewhat, or it will be a 3rd ugly loss in a row to them.  Coach Davis has to get his OL to stop blowing pass protection assignments that have been allowing unblocked blitzers into the backfield.  Reed has to get open and make some catches to occupy the LBs and safeties at TE, and somehow a few WRs have to rise to the occasion and make a play downfield.

I’m actually hoping that Florida will use a game plan similar to the one Alabama employed against LSU in last year’s BCGCG.  Bama threw early and often on first down, and continued to do so throughout the game, even when LSU’s defense had to think they would revert back to tendency by running on the early downs.  Bama stayed committed to it, and it worked well.  I simply don’t believe the OL is physically ready to rely on a power running game.  There is no SECCG next week, so there is no reason to hold anything back in the playcalling in this game.

The Gator defense knows what it is capable of, and has been tested in some tough road environments already.  EJ Manuel is still the person you want to force to make plays, as he still can be forced into bad decisions and turnovers when under pressure.  The Gator DL should be able to at least get a stalemate, so the back seven have to help shut down the F$U running game and make Manuel beat them passing against a solid Gator secondary.  Floyd, Easley, and Fowler have to be able to get pressure, while Bostic, Jenkins, and the rest of the LBs have to have a great day tackling.

F$U’s running game was hurt with the loss of Chris Thompson.  Devonta Freeman and James Wilder are not the home-run threat Thompson was, and the Gators need to shut them down early and force Manuel to make plays consistently.  Kelvin Benjamin and Rodney Smith are big targets at WR, but lack breakaway speed, and the Gator DBs should be able to stay with them one-on-one…….they just have to be ready for a physical battle all day and not get out of position to make a play on the ball.  Rashad Greene is probably their best WR in space and the one guy that Florida has to contain.  Look for F$U to try and single out Purifoy as many other team have done recently – he is the Gator DB that struggles the most in coverage.  I’m not worried about Roberson and Watkins in coverage, and Elam has a score to settle with these Clowns.

Florida has a decided edge on special teams.  Despite the lack of any playmaking this year by the kick and punt returners, overall this unit is one of the best on college football.  Both PK Sturgis and P Christy are finalists for national awards, and deservedly so.  The coverage units have been excellent as well.  When you have key injuries and are on the road, the special teams have to be reliable, and a single big play from them can be the difference.

It’s really a shame that the injuries to the OL and Driskel could derail what may have been an excellent chance to win at F$U.  Despite all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth, I know that the Gator staff has been holding back a lot for this game, and doing it’s best to manage all of the injuries and try to have all hands on deck for this one.  If Florida was coming in to this game healthy and clicking on offense, I’d give them a better than 50% chance of winning.  Unfortunately, the poor play of the offense makes it look like there is at best a 1 out of 3 or 4 chance of victory.  I definitely give the coaching edge to the Florida staff.  Here’s hoping this week is that 1 game, but I’m not inclined to pick it that way……I can only hope I’m wrong.

Prediction:  F$U 20    Florida 13

What else can be said about that near-disaster?  Nothing came from this game constructive except for Brissett being just good enough as a backup to finally get the offense in the end zone late.  The defense was great as usual, and the special teams were just that – again – making the play of the game with the blocked punt by Purifoy to win the game.

No rest for the starters, continued crappy play by the OL, the starting QB gets injured, and the defense having to play it’s starters until the end to bail out the offense.  No rest, no development of backups, a key injury……so much for having 3 weeks to get ready for F$U.  Everything good that could have come from this game was essentially lost.

It’s stunning to see the OL play so poorly.  There was apparently zero margin for error with the starters as far as staying healthy, and the lousy backup play just shows how bad the Dazzler’s recruiting was from 2009-2011……garbage.  It will take another 2-3 years to build a quality rotation capable of consistently competing in the SEC.  I think this really shows why the staff went with Driskel as the starting QB, knowing he had the mobility to keep defenses somewhat honest and to keep himself from getting killed when trying to pass.

At least ULL is a decent opponent – not the gimme that most fans expected after ignoring what Coach Muschamp said all week.  This was a winning team with some playmakers, and they took advantage of all of the gifts they were given by Florida and damn near pulled off a stunner.  And, they are still ranked ahead of half of the wreck that is the F$U schedule……how embarrassing (again) the ACC is this year.

Well, one more cupcake comes in this week, as JSU prepares to get a nice paycheck for a glorified scrimmage.  This one will be an easier game, and it looks like Brissett will get the start, as the Gator Nation hopes that Driskel can be ready for the Criminoles in 2 weeks.

As always in these games, the mantra is……NO MORE INJURIES!!!

Prediction:  Florida 38    JSU 7