Lipstick on a Pig

 Back to the Future
 
It looks like Urban Meyer is channeling old-school SEC football for this season, along with shades of the closer games from 2006.  The staff decided to play it extra safe with Tim Tebow, and rely on a dominant defense that was never really threatened by LSU.  Florida sucked the life out of the Tigers and their fans on the very first offensive drive of the game, and were in control throughout.
 
The Gator OL controlled the LOS from the start, especially on the straight dive play.  That was very important, as the read option was pretty much ruled out to protect Tebow from extra hits, and had to be successful to set up the controlled passing game.  It was obvious that Tebow had missed most of 2 weeks of practice, as his passing accuracy wasn’t as sharp, and he missed some easy throws, including a sure TD pass to Aaron Hernandez on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter.  Hernandez has to be an All-American candidate, as he is a great blocker, can get downfield on passing routes, and receive the inside shovel pass — a complete player.
 
Of course, the real heroes were the offensive linemen.  Those guys knew going in that their performance would dictate the entire game plan, and on top of that Tebow would be limited in what he did.  That’s a lot of pressure to be under, especially on the road in a place like Tiger Stadium, and they performed admirably.  Running so many dive plays against a tough defense is big-boy football, and to have the success they did is a real confidence boost for the entire offense and the coaching staff.
 
It was good to see Jeff Demps and Emmanuel Moody run so hard and effectively.  Maybe Moody has finally earned more carries and confidence from the staff — we’ll see in the coming weeks.
 
The Gator defense completely shut down LSU’s offense all night.  Their one scoring drive was set up by 2 dubious personal foul calls on consecutive plays, and even then they kept the Tigers out of the end zone.  It appeared that the “Joker” package with 3 down linemen, and other rushers/blitzers from alternating positions, confused Jordan Jefferson and their OL all night.  The Florida DL was able to apply pressure off the edges, and the DTs did a nice job of controlling the inside running game of Charles Scott.  Coach Strong did a good job of scheming coverage, because I was concerned about the Tiger WRs having a big night downfield, but they only hit one long crossing route the entire game.
 
This week’s game against Arkansas will be a challenge.  Bobby Petrino has a legitimate QB in Ryan Mallett, and his passing scheme utilizes all of the skill players and the entire field.  This will be the biggest regular-season challenge to the Gator back seven, and they had better be ready to cover one-on-one.  The key will be the Gator DL being able to get pressure on the QB without too much help from the LBs or secondary on blitzes.  Allowing Mallett time to set his feet and throw comfortably will lead to a long day for the defense.  RB Michael Smith is a threat as well, and provides good balance to the Razorback attack.
 
Conversely, the formula that has worked so well so far this season for Florida’s offense is especially important this week.  A successful running game keeps Arkansas’ offense on the sideline and shortens the game.  However, the Gators have surprisingly struggled in the red zone so far, and that has to improve against better offenses, as FGs will get your team beat if the defense has an off-day.  The continued struggles of and/or reluctance to utilize the downfield passing game is becoming a legitimate concern as the season is at the halfway point.  The pass protection has only been so-so to date, and hopefully Tebow being back into the regular practice schedule sharpens up the pass offense starting this week.
 
Arkansas comes in a more confident team, coming off of 2 straight wins, including a big win last week against undefeated Auburn.  Make no mistake — their offense is good enough to win this game.  The Gator defense faces it’s biggest challenge of the year so far.  The Florida offense has to continue to control the LOS, and the Swamp crowd needs to do it’s part to disrupt the Razorback offense.  This game requires another complete team effort.  Fortunately, it’s apparent that the coaching staff has complete confidence in the leadership and professionalism of this team that they will prepare well and execute the game plan.  The usual bugaboo about losing at least once to a SEC West opponent each season still hangs out there.  The 22-point spread seems a little high to me as well.  Great respect for the Gators, but the offensive performance hasn’t backed it up so far.
 
Prediction Florida 31        Arkansas 20

For a rather uneventful first 4 games, there sure has been more intrigue off the field than on for the Florida Gators, and the off week and the days leading up to the showdown at Baton Rouge have been no different.

Will or won’t Tim Tebow play?  Can Johnny Brantley win in his first ever start, on the road, against a quality SEC team in a tough environment?  Can the Gators throw the ball downfield?  Does the dream end at Death Valley?

This game is very hard to predict, because of all the hype combined with a bunch of 18-22 year old kids feeling it.  Honestly, with a healthy Tebow, the outstanding senior leadership, a tough running game, and great special teams, that normally is the perfect recipe for winning on the road no matter the environment.  While many are ready to heap praise and confidence in Brantley if he starts, I just can’t do it yet.  No starts, and no meaningful early snaps with the first team?  This is not the right recipe in the college game.

LSU is still an enigma.  They certainly have enough front-line talent to beat any team, but have yet to put it all together this season.  Jordan Jefferson has enough mobility to bail himself out of trouble against some expected pressure by the Florida defense.  Brandon LaFell is a playmaker at WR, but even as a senior he still has lapses in concentration catching the ball.  He had his way with Joe Haden last year in Gainesville, though.  Richard Dickson a clutch performer at TE, and Terence Tolliver is a big target at the other WR position.  Even true freshman Reuben Randle is starting to contribute.  However, none of those WRs has elite speed, and UF should be able to play a lot of man coverage if necessary to free up the safeties and LBs to support the run or blitz.

The Tiger running game was expected to be strong again this year, but has struggled.  Charles Scott and Keiland Williams are quality runners, but the O-Line just hasn’t been consistent.  Their performance against Georgia can’t inspire too much confidence, as the Puppies have been soft on defense all year, and LSU struggled in short yardage all game.  Jefferson looked awful running the option — he seemed much more comfortable in the pocket or taking off on scrambles if necessary.

What about the Gator offensive game plan?  There’s simply no way to predict what the scheme and play-calling will be like if Brantley gets the start.  The running game I believe will suffer due to the fact he can’t run the option with the effectiveness of Tebow, nor do I believe he would be put at injury risk if Tebow is not allowed to play.  It may be time to really incorporate the RBs in the passing game as well, and I would expect many more swing passes and a few screens to any of Rainey, Demps, or Moody.  Deonte Thompson is supposedly ready, and that should be a real lift to the passing game, allowing the Gators to stretch the Tiger secondary vertically, and at least present the threat of the deep ball to loosen them up.  I would also expect a slightly different passing scheme, with Hernandez and Cooper getting more looks in the seams and over the middle.

Now, If Tebow is cleared and ready to go, I fully expect him to still be the physical player he is, and to be allowed to run the option, draws, and do whatever he can to win the game.  No doubt his presence on the field would be a huge lift to Florida.  Even with LSU expecting the run with him in the game, his added dimension of running, along with the best interior OL in college football, should be able to generate a decent or better run game that should find success against a Tiger DL that is not of the same quality or depth as it has been the previous 4 years.  Of course, Tebow’s presence allows Demps and Rainey to become even more dangerous on the edge, as they were last year when they ripped through LSU all night.

On defense, Florida appears to have a solid advantage overall with it’s depth and experience.  Despite perhaps the best group of skill players it will face this year, Florida’s team speed and solid back seven should hopefully be good enough to allow Coach Strong to pick his spots as far as any blitzing, and I have to think there are plenty of new looks and schemes he has not had to show all year to confuse Jefferson.  All that being said, the Gator D-Line must do it’s job against the run.  Terron Sanders, Jaye Howard, Lawrence March, and Omar Hunter — time to shine.  If they can stuff the Tiger running game, Jefferson is in for a long night.  It’s time for Jermaine Cunningham, Carlos Dunlap, and Justin Trattou to have a big game rushing the passer, and they should have some success against a Tiger OL that has struggled to date.

Despite the uncertainty going in to this game, I’m going down in flames with the better Head Coach, better defense, better special teams, and more experienced team in this one.

Prediction – Florida 24        L$U 17

Workmanlike effort……and get used to it.

That was pretty brutal to watch, as the Gators played a sloppy game against a high school-caliber offense from Tennessee, and the Volunteers drug Florida down to it’s ugly level.

It was basic football from the start to finish.  Obviously, the staff never felt threatened by Tennessee.  Coach Meyer is conservative to a large extent, and likes to run the ball and play field position. He’s said that many times, and I think many have forgotten it after last year’s fireworks. As long as the Gators have the lead, that’s what we can expect.

Coach Addazio hopefully mixes up the play-calling, and breaks tendencies as the season progresses (such as running the dive play so often on first down). Incorporating the RBs more often in the passing game could help loosen up the defense. There were some signs of doing this, but Tebow simply either didn’t recognize it, or threw the ball late too often. When he did hit Demps quickly and in rhythm, it was fun to watch.

Hopefully Deonte Thompson returns for L$U, because apparently the staff does not think there is a deep threat to stretch the field vertically without him. Not even one deep shot or jump ball to Cooper when he had single coverage.

This year’s defense is very good, but won’t be great until they improve against the run and get more 3-and-outs.  There were more missed tackles in that game since perhaps last year’s Ole Miss game, or quite possibly since 2007.  However, it did come out after the game that many players were battling the flu.  The tackling will be a point of emphasis for the defensive staff this week.

Well, at least the Vol fans (ever dwindling in number) can comfort themselves in that their Head Coach plays not to lose too badly, and didn’t even try to win the game.  We’ll see how long that plays as the season progresses and they get hammered by Georgia and Alabama, and possibly USCeast. 

Next up is Kentucky, and those guys had their pride stripped away last year and have a better offense than last year.  It’s the first road trip of the season, and perhaps the timing is good after all of the hand-wringing after the Tennessee game.  Most of the team and coaching staff is currently going through flu of various types, and it’s time to pull together and go get the win as a group through this adversity.

Kentucky will be primed after being completely embarrassed last year.  They come into this game off of a comeback win vs. Louisville that, while not pretty, showed them they could win despite some of their own mistakes, and it should give them some confidence.  Mike Hartline seems to have developed into a decent QB, and RB Derrick Locke is back after injury in 2008 to provide a home-run threat.  However, WR Randall Cobb is their most dangerous player, and is a big-time talent and playmaker.  The Gators have to win first down by stuffing the run and force the Wildcats into must-pass situations, where they are much less effective.  It will be interesting to see how much of the 3-3-5 look Coach Strong shows to try and confuse Hartline and throw off their short passing game.  It appears that Spikes will still be hobbled, but try and give it a go.  Personally, I hope he doesn’t start and isn’t needed.  Haden and Wright are also ill, and may only see limited time.  Fortunately, the Gators have depth at every defensive position and should be able to adapt.

On offense, I have to believe Florida still tries to pound the running game early and often, partly due to physical superiority, partly due to some unanswered quations at WR due to injury (DeonteThompson) and inexperience (Hines/Hammond/Lawrence).  With a week off coming, I won’t be surprised at all to see Tebow get at least 12-15 carries, especially if other teams start copying Tennessee’s defensive scheme of forcing Tebow to keep the ball on the option.  Cornerback Trevard Lindley and middle linebacker Micah Johnson are all-SEC candidiates for UK’s defense, but there is no way that their talent across the board approaches Tennessee’s, and I do expect some plays of 20+ yards from the Gators.  I’m still waiting on the staff to incorporate more passes to the RBs, and a healthier Aaron Hernandez will be a big boost against zone defenses.  Florida’s interior O-Line should have it’s way most of the evening.

With all the the crap in the media and from Lame Kiffen after last week’s game, along with the flu bug that has hit the Gators pretty hard, this is another week where Florida just needs to get the win, avoid serious injuries, and move on to the bigger games ahead.  Hopefully the weather is OK by gametime and the field is drying out after expected rain most of Friday and into Saturday.

Prediction – Florida 31      Kentucky 14

It was a slow start and fast finish for the Gators as they overpowered Troy in the Swamp.  The play of both teams mirrored the dreary weather to start the game, with both teams putting the ball on the ground multiple times.  The Florida defense dominated all day, holding the Trojans to under 150 yards of offense.  It was when Tim Tebow found his rhythm and the O-Line started pounding away that the offense came to life, scoring 28 points in the 2nd quarter to end any suspense early.

The Gator defense showed more looks and blitzes than in the opener, but it was obvious that they could dictate the action all afternoon.  The secondary looked much better with Janoris Jenkins back in the lineup, and the D-Line showed a better pass rush and penetration vs. the run.  Both Demps and Rainey looked very good — Rainey really follows his blocking well.  Thompson finally started catching the ball, and showed why he can be the deep threat this year.  Hopefully he is healthy enough to play well this week.  Cooper was an animal again — he’s perhaps the best blocking WR in the country, and still fast as hell.  Once Tebow started running the ball and punishing defenders, the entire offense fed off the energy and blew Troy off the field.

Now it’s Tennessee week, and Lame Kiffen comes to the Swamp to get his comeuppance.  The Volunteers once again have a solid defense, but don’t have the depth and playmaking ability there that they have had in the past.  Eric Berry can’t play all 11 positions, and Florida should be able to scheme around him if necessary.  The formula still remains the same for Florida — pound away with a great running game featuring the best interior OL in the country, hit the edges on the speed option with Tebow, Demps, and Rainey, then hit the big pass plays to Cooper, Thompson, and Hernandez.  It’s too bad Hernandez is the only real TE on the roster this year, as the staff has to protect him somewhat to last through an entire season.  No one on the Volunteer defense can match up with him, unless it’s Berry or another CB.

Tennessee will start Jonothan Crompton at QB, and his confidence has to be in shambles.  Another desultory effort against UCLA, and the fans (and I think certain teammates) are questioning him openly.  The Vols have no downfield threats in the passing game, as their WRs lack elite speed, and their one true threat, Gerald Jones, is not 100% healthy.  Of course, they have nothing to lose in this game, and I have to think they gamble with some deep throws early and possibly often.  They still have a solid running game, with two good backs in Hardesty and Brown, but their OL has zero depth, and isn’t 100% healthy, either.  Is the game plan to somehow try and control the clock and keep Tebow and Co. off the field, or do they go crazy and open up the entire playbook?  Somehow, they have to protect Crompton better, but that’s going to be difficult against Cunningham, Dunlap, and Spikes, and a defense out to punish Tennessee.

There has been so much hype leading up to this game, mostly due to Lame’s big mouth.  The guy just doesn’t get it, and it’s already obvious to me that even when he tries to compliment another team, he doesn’t really mean it — just like most of what comes out of his pie hole.  Of course the entire fan base wants a 60-point win and to take out the Vols with extreme prejudice, but unless they completely implode and suffer a rash of turnovers, there is still too much talent and pride among their players to allow it.  I’ll be happy with a solid win with no major injuries……and at least one sign from Coach Meyer (a late time out or two?) that rubs Lame’s face in it.  Pounding away at them in the second half with the Pouncey twins, Carl Johnson, and a physical running game, in the heat and humidity, with Tennessee knowing it can’t compete or win, is satisfying enough.  There are plenty of big games coming up later this season, and there’s no need to show too much, even this week.

 Prediction – Florida 38      Tennessee 10

Florida opens the 2009 season with a glorified scrimmage against CSU.  This one will get ugly and be over early, but allow the Gator coaching staff to see a lot of players.

The mantra for this game is “no injuries……no injuries……no injuries”.

The offense just needs to work on fundamentals, getting into a rhythm on offense without having Harvin and Murphy around, and build some confidence in the WR corps.  Hopefully the running game is sharp from the opening kickoff and helps build a quick lead.

The Gator defense should dominate against an outclassed opponent from the start.  Again, I just want to see solid fundamentals — sure tackling, hustle, and discipline in following assignments.

It will be good to finally see some live action, and start to look forward after a long off-season of looking back and incessant hype from the media since January.

Once again, the mantra for this game is “no injuries……no injuries……no injuries”.

Heeeeeeeeeeere come the Gators!

 Florida 70        CSU 3

Florida enters the 2009 season with the collective bullseye of the rest of the college football world directly on it.  The Gators have the chance to make some real history for themselves and carve out a niche among the elite teams of all time if they can win another National Championship.  The coaching staff has the luxury of retaining key senior leadership that will help motivate and focus the team as best as can be hoped.  The entire two-deep roster returns on defense to lead the way this fall, while the offense actually could take a step back with the loss of Percy Harvin and an inexperienced WR corps.

The schedule is possibly the easiest one in 20 years.  The one toss-up road game is at LSU, an improved Arkansas team has to come the Swamp, Georgia has a new QB, South Carolina also has a new QB and still searches for a big-time offense, and F$U arrives at the Swamp on Senior Day.  Oh yeah, Lame Kiffen and his “mouth that roared” travels to Florida with Tennessee on 9/19 to get that same mouth smashed shut.

Offense

The Gators will have perhaps the best interior OL in the country this fall to block for Tim Tebow and a solid RB corps.  Coach Addazio has an embarrassment of riches between the Pouncey twins, James Wilson, and Carl Johnson inside.  The one area that needs to develop and establish a rotation the first 2 weeks is at OT, where some combination of Marcus Gilbert, Matt Patchan, and Carl Johnson will have to be sorted out.  Addazio has proved to be an excellent developer of linemen, though, and most of these guys are already cross-trained at multiple positions in case of injury (always possible) or poor performance (doubtful).  There is also a solid group of young players pushing for snaps, including Xavier Nixon, Jonotthan Harrison, Nick Alijajian, Sam Robey, and David Young.

The running back rotation is set with Jeffrey Demps, Chris Rainey, and Emmanuel Moody ready to break off big plays.  I’m actually hopeful that the RBs are involved more in the passing game for two reasons — (1) because they are all breakaway threats in the open field, and (2) because this can help take pressure off of the WRs and TEs.  Demps and Rainey, despite their size, have proven to be tough enough to run inside, while Moody just has to stay healthy (which at this point is no guarantee).  Freshman Mike Gillislee has shown enough flashes in fall practice that he may not redshirt this year. 

The question marks on offense are at the WR and TE position.  The loss of Harvin and Louis Murphy will not easily be replaced, and I expect some struggles at WR this year.  There is plenty of talent and potential between Deonte Thompson, Riley Cooper, and David Nelson, but none have over 30 catches in any season.  It appears that Carl Moore may be lost for the season with a back injury.  Brandon James will see significant plays in the slot to try and fill the void.  Someone in the young group of Frankie Hammond, TJ Lawrence, and Omarius Hines has a real chance to play a lot this fall if deserving.  At TE, Aaron Hernandez is one of the best in the country.  He does it all — catch, run, and block — equally well.  However, with the likely redshirting of freshman Desmond Parks due to a spring knee injury, there is no scholarship player behind him.  If he goes down, then the entire offense changes significantly in scheme, which could prove detrimental against quality opponents.

It’s almost comical to try and break down the QB position, as Tim Tebow comes back for one more shot at another championship season and individual awards.  The guy is the real deal in every way — leadership, motivation, toughness on the field, and work ethic.  Johnny Brantley will finally get his chance to see significant playing time this year, and new QB coach Scot Loeffler has improved both player’s mechanics and coverage recognition.  Brantley has great tools, and will benefit by getting snaps earlier in games.  This could prove beneficial in preserving Tebow’s health though another physical SEC grind. 

Defense

Unbelievably, Florida becomes the first defending National Champion to return it’s entire two-deep roster.  This unit overall could actually improve over it’s 2008 play, which is what will have to happen in my opinion in order to win either another SEC or BCS title.

The defensive line actually has some quality depth in it’s rotation now, despite the off-season loss of Torrey Davis.  Lawrence Marsh, Terron Sanders, Jaye Howard, and Omar Hunter should provide a solid base at DT in 2009.  Howard is pushing Sanders for a starting role, while the much-hyped Hunter is finally in shape and could provide some real push up the middle.  The DE group is one of the best in the country.  Carlos Dunlap looks to improve his performance from last year with improved strength and more consistent effort on every play.  His ability is freakish, and if he can command extra attention from the opponent’s OL, the rest of the DEs — Jermaine Cunningham, Justin Trattou, William Green, and others will dominate.

The linebacking corps also finally has depth at each position.  The unit is lead by All-American Brandon Spikes, and as he goes, so goes the defense, according to Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong.  Ryan Stamper and AJ Jones will start alongside him.  Brandon Hicks is still nursing an ankle injury right now, or he would start ahead of Jones.  Lorenzo Edwards, Brendan Beal, Lerentee McCray, John Bostic, and Jelani Jenkins will all play quite a bit this year.  Bostic and Jenkins are future stars.

The secondary is one of the top 5 units in the country this fall.  The cornerback rotation of Joe Haden, Janoris Jenkins, and Markihe Anderson are all quality players and tough.  The Gators are loaded at safety.  Coach Heater says he has 4 starters instead of 2 — Major Wright, Ahmad Black, Will Hill, and Dorian Munroe.  Unfortunately, Munroe suffered a recent knee injury knocking him out for a month, but Dee Finley steps right in to lay the wood.  This group plays well as a unit, and gets turnovers at a high rate — a real luxury in the college game.

Special Teams

Starting with the coach of this unit, Coach Meyer, this group is possibly the best one in college football.  Starters are sprinkled throughout the coverage and block teams, along with young talent biding their time until they become starters some day.  Florida received an unexpected bonus in the off-season when the NCAA granted Jonathan Phillips one more year of eligibility.  He turned into a clutch performer last season, missing only one XP and FG all season.  Chas Henry comes into his junior year as an A-A candidate at punter, allowing minimal return yards and also a threat as an athlete.  Even with all of that, there is still Brandon James to return kicks.  James may get more snaps as a slot WR this season, so he may be spelled on kickoff returns by Rainey or punt returns by Haden.  Make no mistake though — he is possibly the most feared return man in college football.  He’s fearless and tough, and consistently flips field position into Florida’s favor.  The biggest challenge will be to replace James Smith as long snapper, who was a great kick coverage player, and Butch Rowley as the holder on placekicks.  They were unsung heroes, but the team and Coach Meyer appreciated them.

Predictions

The 2009 Gator football team has talent and depth at almost every position now, thanks to Coach Meyer’s relentless recruiting genius.  The advantage of having such a strong leader like Tebow return is as much as any team could hope for in terms of trying to stave off complacency and getting lazy in weekly game preparation.  The entire team seems to realize how they can be remembered in history if they manage another championship season.

There are only 2 possible losses on the road schedule, the main one being at LSU.  Florida has the advantage of a week off in preparation for that showdown, and no current player or coach has won at Baton Rouge except for Coach Strong, the lone holdover from the Zook Error.  South Carolina could prove to be a tough game late in the year with their solid defense, but unless they get their offense untracked, I doubt they pull off a win.

Tennessee is in line for a beatdown, and not just because of their entitled, idiot head coach — they simply lack talent on offense, and their defense is razor-thin in depth after the starters.  Arkansas could sneak up on the Gators in the Swamp the week after the LSU game with a potent offense and a Florida letdown, but the Hog defense has a long ways to go.  Georgia will be improved in the trenches, and may actually give Florida it’s toughest battle this season.  However, the Puppies lack playmaking at QB and possibly RB this year, and know that the Gator offense has piled up huge numbers the past two years.  Florida State may be marginally improved this year, but will still get to send Tim Tebow and a tremendous senior class off with a victory on Senior Day at the Swamp.

If there is a loss on the schedule, it’s hard to see right now.  However, history says that Florida will lose somewhere along the way, as they have never completed an undefeated season.  That, and getting back to Atlanta, are the main goals for the 2009 Gators.  Many media types are predicting this, but until it happens, I just can’t go along with it.  Maybe it’s superstition, maybe it’s just going with the odds.  But, Florida has won all 3 of it’s National Championships with one loss, and would (I believe) get the benefit of the doubt if they still win the SEC Championship and be selected for the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.  That one loss, though, would have to be against a quality SEC opponent (LSU or Georgia) that also has a good year of it’s own.  Or, it could come in the last game of the season (ugh).

Here goes nothing……

Regular Season    11-1

SEC                      7-1

East Division Champions

SEC Champions (over Alabama)

National Champions (over Southern California)