Florida traveled to Austin to play Texas for the first time since 1940, and it looked like the 1940 Gators showed up. The Longhorns embarrassed them 49-17 in what could only be kindly described as a controlled scrimmage. This game was never competitive from start to finish. I expected a big loss, but let’s be real – trailing 35-0 at the half, and watching Texas empty the bench for the last 25 minutes after going up 42-0, is unacceptable. Sure, not having DJ Lagway available at QB and missing the top 2 cornerbacks were going to be major issues, but this was still a terrible performance.
The Florida offense was handicapped with Aidan Warner at QB, but Napier’s playcalling once again was mystifying. Too many pass plays that Warner can’t execute, not enough running plays despite the OL and RBs churning out almost 200 yards against a good Texas front seven, and a continued lack of feel for sequencing play calls – especially in the red zone. RBs Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson ran hard and read holes well – Montrell Johnson is simply not missed. Damien George continued his renaissance after moving the RG, and Austin Barber looks much better at LT now that he is healthy. But all of that was never going to even remotely overcome the bad QB play. Once again, Clay Millen didn’t even sniff the field, which is beyond perplexing. WR Aiden Mizell looked good taking over from Tre Wilson in getting his cardio work by running 20+ sprints across the formation pre-snap and never getting the ball. Chimere Dike made a few good receptions downfield, while Elijhah Badger played through injury and wasn’t close to his usual self. What Napier has done to the WR corps since he arrived in Gainesville is criminal. And still no incorporation of the TEs into the passing game after Graham Mertz’ season ended……even when it would help a limited QB.
The Gator defense never stood a chance. Texas QB Quinn Ewers looked good throwing against air, racking up 337 yards and 5 TDs in one half plus an additional one series after halftime. Longhorn head coach Steve Sarkisian is an elite playcaller, and he eviscerated Florida as Texas moved the ball at will, oftentimes having WRs open by 5-10 yards. It resembled an offseason 7-on-7 drill with the lack of close coverage. That shows (again) how poorly the Gator LBs and safeties are coached in regards to pass coverage……now going on 5 years. Ron Roberts and Austin Armstrong were completely outclassed and exposed. It just shouldn’t be that difficult to even play some sort of zone that keeps the ball in front of you and at least forces the offense to methodically move the ball. There were a handful of individual good plays from DE LJ McCray, DT Caleb Banks, and LBs Shemar James and Pup Howard, but far too few. It had to be disheartening for the defenders, watching Texas move the ball at will while they desperately chased them from behind.
The best thing from this scrimmage was that fans could leave at halftime and walk to Franklin’s BBQ well before they closed. Gator Nation showed up in big numbers to support the team……and got another slap in the face before they traveled back to their rural Central Florida basements and across the country. Even long-time, die-hard season ticket holders I know left at halftime after another punch to the gut. Good times.
Florida now returns home to face LSU. The Tigers are coming in after getting their teeth kicked in at home by Alabama 42-6, and looking just as bad as the score would indicate. They are learning first-hand why Brian Kelly isn’t the best coach out there, and also are wondering why their defense continues to struggle (sound familiar?). The Gators also have received some very good and very bad injury news this week, as I’ll detail below.
LSU’s offense still is one of the best in the SEC, led by QB Garrett Nussmeier and a plethora of quality WRs including Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, along with an excellent TE in Mason Taylor. This is a terrible matchup for Florida right now, because of all the injuries decimating the depth chart in the secondary. CBs Devon Moore and Ja”keenm Jackson will miss the game, while it appears Dijon Johnson will give it a go despite not being 100%. It’s probably gonna be another ugly afternoon for the secondary unless the front seven suddenly discovers a pass rush. RB Caden Durham hasn’t played like a true freshman, displaying speed and big-play ability, and providing an excellent counterbalance to that powerful passing game. Nussmeier will have extra personal motivation for this game, as his father was OC at Florida under The Swamp Donkey, er, Jim McElwain, and was unceremoniously fired for poor performance. If the Gators can somehow get some pressure on him he will turn the ball over, as he already has 11 interceptions on the season, most coming the past 2 weeks against Texas A&M and Bama. But a quality pass rush has been missing from the defense for years now, I don’t see it suddenly appearing. More bad news for the defense is that LB Pup Howard is out for this game, depleting an already thin LB corps. This forces freshmen Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles into action, where their lack of experience – especially in pass coverage – will get exposed.
On offense, there is some huge news – DJ Lagway is allegedly cleared to play. Even with that positive development, Florida has to run the ball effectively – and often – to have any real chance. Baugh and Jackson may need continued snaps in the wildcat formation as well – Alabama gashed the Tigers all night with QB and wildcat power runs, and that’s something that this Gator offense can conceivably execute. It’s not pretty, and nothing like most offenses have been played in the past 30+ years, but it’s necessary to try and win this particular game. Just having Lagway in the game gives immediate legitimacy to the passing game, as does the additional news that Badger will likely play some snaps, giving the QBs another quality target that can keep the LSU defense honest. There’s some hope, given the recent improvement of the O-line and it’s good run blocking against Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas. The Gators have to control the ball, win time of possession, and shorten the game. Doing all of those things will help keep Lagway healthy while allowing the defense to get some rest as they will be under a passing onslaught from the opening kickoff. They say styles make fights, and, sadly, this matchup doesn’t make for a good fight for Florida……unless the offense carries it’s share of the load. I doubt any of the guys returning from injury are fully healthy, but they’re going to try to tough it out.
With all of the on-field challenges to deal with, there’s the continued drama that is Napier’s job security. That vote of confidence from Scott Stinklin isn’t worth the paper it was written on nor the electronic bandwidth needed to email out to Florida fans and alumni. It’s just another desperate attempt to kick the can down the road, and there’s an increasing chance of wasting another year, recruiting class, and season, while alienating Gator Nation even more. The only respite would be winning either of the next 2 games, and LSU is likely the easier opponent compared to Ole Miss. It will be interesting to see how motivated LSU looks throughout the game – will they be showing emotion and fighting every snap, or have the crushing losses the past 2 weeks demoralized them? I’m hoping for the latter, but not counting on it.
Pre-game sitrep: 3 (no longer N/A, even with the dreaded vote of confidence)
Post-game sitrep: 2 or 3 (loss or win)
Prediction:
LSU 34
Florida 24 (if Lagway plays the entire game); Florida 14 (or less, if Lagway re-injures himself)