It’s over. Billy Napier’s tenure as Florida head football coach is done, and deservedly so. The only question is when he will be exiled to the basement (hopefully with no power, plumbing, or internet), where he has put a once-proud program.
It was another exercise in futility and frustration at the Swamp, as the Gators allowed a backup QB making his first start on short notice look like a seasoned veteran. The defense was literally run over for close to 600 yards and 300+ yards rushing by a pedestrian Texas A&M offense. Included was a 99-yard drive to end the 1st half, in which the Gators – as usual – gave up easy 3rd-and-long conversions. Ron Roberts’ defense even managed to outdo itself by letting A&M off the hook after 2 concurrent penalties gave the Aggies a 1st-and-35 back near midfield with a little over 1 minute left. A targeting call on the next play gave the Aggies a gift 1st down along with Trikwese Bridges being ejected. It was a terrible call, but one that bad teams often get. A&M subsequently scored, and it was 20-0 at the half and the team and fans were both deflated. And for consistency’s sake, the middle if the field remains open for any offense or level of QB to complete passes with impunity. There’s really no reason to try and dig deeper into the schematic or talent reasons why at this point. It’s the same scheme run by a 3rd different person in 3 seasons, with the same sorry-ass results – the definition of insanity.
Basement Billy again showed his total lack of feel for calling a game and adjusting to it’s ebbs and flows, clumsily alternating QBs Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway all afternoon as the offense struggled to gain any momentum or consistency. Mertz was pulled after missing an easy 3rd-down throw on the first series, Lagway came in and looked like a true freshman the next series, and from there it went from bad to worse. Mertz actually had one good series to start the 2nd half, leading a TD drive and making some good downfield throws, including a TD pass to Elijhah Badger. That made the score 20-7 and gave the Gators and their fans a fleeting hope. But of course, Rural Meyer pulled him for Lagway on the next series, and any momentum gained was lost. Napier’s handling of the QB rotation was an abject failure – a microcosm of his entire tenure as head coach at Florida. While all of this was happening, it certainly did nothing to help a defense getting punked (again), this time by a mediocre Aggie O-line and skill players. They were allowed to control possession and the clock, wear down the Gator defense, and limit possessions for Florida’s offense. The Gator running game was stuffed for the most part – Montrell Johnson looked indecisive, and the only RB who had any juice was Treyaun Webb, who likely earned himself more carries with a handful of good gains……unless Florida’s fearful leader continues his mystifying rotation of players. It was both comical and maddening to (again) sit in the stands with other long-time fans and predict the play calls with certainty – pass on 1st down, run on 2nd down, and then throw short of the sticks on 3rd down.
Napier was booed off the field at halftime and after the game mercifully ended…..and deservedly so. Even the elements seemed to want to extend Gator Nation’s misery, with a 45 minute weather delay between the 1st and 2nd quarters (with no visible lightning and no rain) that just delayed the inevitable. The rain waited until play resumed – right on schedule……LMFAO. As of now Scott Stricklin and the UAA predictably have not fired Napier. His hang-dog face and loser aura will continue to be in the building and on the sidelines for at least another week, just frustrating Gator Nation even more and not giving the players a fair chance at success.
This week, Florida goes on the road to the aptly-named Starkville to play Mississippi St. It’s “The ‘Battle for the Basement’ of the SEC. The Bulldogs are off to a very rough start of their own. They lost their former head coach, Mike Leach, who passed away suddenly from a heart attack right after the 2022 regular season ended, struggled through a poor 2023 with an interim head coach, and now have their 3rd head coach in less than 2 years with Jeff Lebby coming in from successful stints as OC at Oklahoma and before that Mississippi. They endured a massive roster turnover and are implementing new offensive and defensive schemes, and have struggled mightily so far in 2024. MSU is coming off of a brutal and embarrassing loss at home last week to Toledo, 41-17, which has shaken their fan base. But, who knows? Perhaps the Florida Gators are their get-well medicine……yeesh.
Napier says he is sticking with the QB rotation, so who knows who gets snaps and when, and if it will even matter if he can’t figure out how to go with the hot hand and stop with any pre-planned series for each. Florida should be able to rediscover at least some of it’s running game, which would serve the conservative Napier just fine. WR Tre Wilson is out indefinitely after meniscus surgery to his knee, and Tank Hawkins will play but is hobbled as well. I’ve given up on anyone providing productive snaps at receiver other than Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, so I would feed those guys all afternoon. The Gator defense may actually match up better this week physically than for most of the remaining schedule. Lebby’s offense is fast-paced and likes to spread the field, and Florida’s defense is smaller and quicker at the edges and has speed at LB and in the secondary, so they shouldn’t be manhandled at the line of scrimmage as usual. Florida is down 2 DTs for this game – Joey Slackman after meniscus surgery and freshman DT Michael Boireau with an undisclosed injury, so here’s hoping Caleb Banks, Cam Jackson, and the rest of the defense can get off the field more often than usual and not tire in the 2nd half. The secondary will be challenged, but should be able to hold up for the most part. It would be nice to see the front seven actually get pressure on QB Blake Shapen, but they could be frustrated by the quick-passing attack. If they can get him off of his first read, they should have success making stops. The Bulldog running game hasn’t impressed so far, but Florida’s defense seems to make anyone look good. The Gators have to slow the running game and force MSU into passing situations, where they can use their talent advantage.
It’s an 11am local kickoff for this game – perfect for the interest that won’t be shown for it. Maybe Florida can take advantage of a reeling Bulldog team, but that would require a fast start and aggression – traits not seen by a Napier-coached team. As bad as the roster is by Gator standards, Florida is still the more talented team and is using schemes they are familiar with – no matter how bad they might be. If Florida gets an early lead, I could see MSU thinking “here we go again” and folding, but I could also see an ugly, sluggish first half from both teams that would just give the Bulldogs and their fans hope they could steal a win. Despite Basement Billy’s 2-10 road record and his program’s own desperation, I’m going to say Florida wins this game, which is good and bad……good for the players, but bad for Gator Nation as Napier will remain on the sidelines for Florida’s return home to face UCF after a bye week.
Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1
Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 0 (imaginary, like Napier’s chances of survival with a loss); DEFCON 1 (win)
Prediction:
Florida 31
Mississippi St. 20