No rest for the Gators, as it’s off to College Station to face another Top 10 opponent – the 4th in a row.  Texas A&M is riding high so far and has a huge win on its resume, defeating Notre Dame on the road 41-40.  The rest of their schedule has been pretty soft, but they have struggled to put away Auburn and Mississippi St. at home recently.  This fits with the Aggies’ usual up-and-down performance each season.

The Florida defense can essentially use the same game plan from the Texas game.  Texas A&M is led by QB Marcel Reed, who is a more effective runner than passer and is completing under 60% of his throws.  Get him off of his first read, and he’ll usually try to scramble either to run or, hopefully, complete a pass against broken coverage.  It’s incumbent upon the Gator edge rushers to play disciplined football – setting the edge and forcing Reed to remain in the pocket.  The Aggies do have 2 solid RBs in Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens, and head coach Mike Elko would much prefer to lean on them to control the action.  However, their O-line has struggled at times with run-blocking, and the Florida front seven must replicate its performance from last week.  It’s another huge challenge for the front seven, and they have to perform well.  Their most dangerous offensive player is WR Mario Craver, who is electric with the ball in his hands and is an all-SEC candidate right now.  If the Gator secondary continues to struggle tackling in space, this will be a matchup that A&M will seek to exploit all game.  WR Kevin Concepion is a multi-purpose threat as a terrific runner after the catch and also a dangerous kick returner.  If Florida’s defense does not tackle especially well, it will be a long night.

The big question from Gator Nation will be: What offensive game plan will show up?  Will Billy Napier actually continue to be aggressive and allow his playmakers opportunities, or will he go back into his conservative shell, hoping to stay close and try and steal a late win?  Either way, it should start with Jaden Baugh.  He needs another 25+ touches to keep the Aggie defense honest and also to protect DJ Lagway.  Lagway won’t be close to 100% health the rest of 2025 and no longer is a running or scrambling threat.  This puts a lot of pressure on the Florida O-line to hold up against an attacking defense by establishing an effective running game and also protecting Lagway long enough to go through his progressions.  Not to mention the road game noise factor.  This challenge will be made more difficult by DE Cashius Howell, who leads the SEC with 7 sacks and has been a problem for every opponent.  Even more reason to run the ball well to force him to play the run and not simply tee off on the QB.  LB Taurean York and S Marcus Ratcliffe are the leading tacklers and must be accounted for.  Stronger opponents have had some success running the ball, and the Gators had better have plenty if they hope to win.  Of course, having two electric freshmen WRs in Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III helps, and Napier needs to feed both of them.  We saw against Texas how they helped open up the entire field for the offense – including the running game.  Both can score on any touch.

If Florida keeps the game close into the 4th quarter, A&M has shown a propensity to tighten up and make mistakes.  Perhaps Florida’s special teams can be the difference, whether it’s a kick return by Brown or a clutch FG from distance by Trey Smack.

It will be an electric atmosphere, with close to 110,000 at Kyle Field (including me) for a night game.  As usual in the SEC, road games are especially tough, and falling behind early is usually a path to defeat.  The Gator defense has been rock-solid so far, and if that continues, Florida can pull off the upset.  However, I’m afraid Reed’s scrambling and running will create some big plays, and Napier’s road record in the SEC is abysmal.  Until I see proof, I’m not predicting that changes, especially in such a difficult environment.

Prediction:

Texas A&M 27

Florida 17