Las Vegas Bowl Preview

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Florida gets “rewarded” for it’s second straight 6-6 regular season with a trip to Las Vegas to take on the Oregon St. Beavers.  Obviously, this game has no meaning nationally outside of the two fan bases, and the Gator coaching staff is going to have it’s hands full trying to balance the past critical recruiting weekends, bowl game prep, and figuring out how to field a competitive team.

Since the end of the regular season, Florida has lost 29 players to a combination of the transfer portal, graduation, and dismissal from the program (QB Jalen Kitna, who was slated to start the bowl game and had the opportunity to audition for 2023).  There are some key losses – especially on offense – that could gut any real chance at the Gators winning.  QB Anthony Richardson, OG O’Cyrus Torrence, and WR Justin Shorter are gone, along with MLB Ventrell Miller.  For now, it appears as if DT Gervon Dexter and OT Richard Gouriage intend to play even though both have declared for the NFL Draft, and I’m sure Billy Napier and Gator Nation will gladly accept any scraps they can get at this point.

Jack Miller has been named the starter at QB for Florida.  he was the backup to AR and played in the Orange and Blue game, but suffered a broken thumb in fall practice and didn’t play a single snap all season.  He’s going to have a lot to prove, and having the defections on offense just makes his job that much more difficult.  If Gouriage does play, the only O-line change will be Richie Leonard filing in for Torrense at guard – at least he’s had extended reps during the season.  The running game will have to leaned upon heavily as Miller has precious little experience with the starting WRs, let alone not being able to develop timing with them.  Other than Shorter, most of the WR corps appears to be back and in decent health.  OSU’s strength on defense is against the run, allowing only 114 yards/game.  If the Gators can’t establish an effective running game, it could be a long afternoon for Miller and the offense.  Florida can have success throwing the ball, as OSU has allowed 228 yards per game.  Having almost all of the WRs back is a huge boost.  Miller needs to protect the football as well, as the Beavers have 12 interceptions on the year.  Of course, unless the Gators put together a decent running game, Miller won’t have the luxury of a balanced offense and will be forced into obvious passing situations.  He does have some mobility, but with the only backups being walk-on Kyle Engel and true freshman Max Brown, Miller needs to stay healthy, so I don’t expect a lot of running from him unless something is wide open.  It’s hard to believe that Florida comes into this game with no QB having ever having thrown a pass for the Gators.

OSU’s offense also relies on a strong running game, led by true freshman Damien Martinez with 970 yards.  The Beaver passing game is ball-possession, with neither of their QBs – Ben Gulbranson or Chance Nolan – throwing deep very often.  They are also turnover-prone when forced to throw with 15 TDs offset by 13 interceptions, so it’s obvious what the Gator defense has to do – find a way to win first down and then rush the QB and force some mistakes.  OSU does have one legitimate deep threat in WR Anthony Gould, who averages 17 yards per catch and is also one of the most dangerous punt returners in the country with an 18 yard average and 2 TDs.

Florida’s special teams have been impacted by all of the roster attrition.  Many of the backups that have left the program received extended snaps on the kick return and coverage units, so there will be lots of new faces and inexperience, which can be disastrous… especially with a kick returner like Gould on OSU’s side.  Fortunately, both placekicker Adam Mihalek and punter Jeremy Crawshaw are available.  Mihalek did pretty well in his first year, and Crawshaw was one of the best in the SEC and country.  Given the potential struggles ahead for Florida’s offense, field position and not allowing any big plays by OSU is critical to chances for a win.

The psychology behind this game will be fascinating.  OSU will be looking at this game as a huge opportunity, and you can bet they will be focused and ready to play.  Florida, however, may be looking at this as more of a scrimmage, with many of the players still on the roster looking to audition for their place in 2023.  I can’t imagine more than 10K Gator fans attending this game (probably less), as it has no real juice and is against an unfamiliar opponent.  It’s also an expensive trip across the country right now, with high air fare prices and inflation impacting the budget of many.  Maybe the staff can have the team ready to play and the Gators come out with some fire, but I would not be surprised at all if it becomes a struggle.  I have no high expectations for a win – it would be great for the team’s morale, but something tells me there is already a significant amount of attention on 2023, from both the players and coaching staff.

Prediction: Oregon St. 24 Florida 20

Florida State Review

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Well, this game certainly embodied the entire 2022 Gator football experience.  Big plays, even bigger plays allowed, penalties, bad tackling, perplexing playcalling, emotional highs and crushing lows, frustration, and a close finish – too often on the losing side.

What a shame to see the season end with such a thud.  After the debacle at Vanderbilt, the effort was there this time – especially with a depleted offensive roster.  But, again, some poor play at critical times and some mind-numbingly inaccurate passing by Anthony Richardson were too much to overcome, especially with a defense that failed (again) to look even competent.  The offense was often electric in the first half, with a solid running game led by Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, and big-time connections from AR to Ricky Pearsall which led to a 24-21 halftime lead.  Florida had momentum going into the locker room, and was getting the 2nd half kickoff with an opportunity to take control of the game.  Then, it happened (again).  The offensive performance in the 3rd quarter was as bad as it could have been.  Billy Napier for some reason decided to get away from the run game, and rolled with a QB who had completed only 55% of his passes coming in.  Well, that led to 3 consecutive 3-and-outs, while the defense collapsed to let F$U win the quarter 17-0 and force Florida to play catch-up in the 4th quarter.  Credit to the guys, as they fought back to a 38-38 tie by getting back to dominating the LOS with their running game.  That was by necessity, as AR was on his way to finish the night with only 9 completions in 29 attempts, after starting out 5 of 7.  That the Gators actually had an opportunity to steal a win at the end with only 4 pass completions in the last 3 quarters was a minor miracle in itself.  He even misfired on 2 easy throws in the flat that would have led to big gains.  It was that kind of inefficient and inaccurate passing from AR too often that ultimately led to too many losses.  It is simply not sustainable in today’s game, especially in the hyper-competitive and talented SEC.

Yet, even with all the struggles in the passing game, it was the defense that ultimately lost this game.  The first half was actually OK, with a few stops and generating a turnover on F$U’s first possession.  But the season-long bugaboos popped up (again) enough to allow the Criminoles to stay close.  Jordan Travis is just not a good passer, evidenced by a 13-30 night passing.  But Florida’s pass coverage over the middle has been dreadful all season, and made him look like Joe Montana at times with a handful of easy completions for big yards with no one within 10 yards of the receiver.  Despite that, the Gators could have had a larger halftime lead if they simply tackled Travis in the backfield a few times.  As I mentioned in my game preview, if the defense could limit his running, F$U would be in trouble.  Well, they didn’t, and it got exponentially worse in the 3rd quarter, which ultimately helped decide the outcome.  The performance by the defense in the 3rd quarter was horrific – I can’t recall seeing such poor tackling in space, bad angles, and simply blowing chances for stops even when DC Patrick Toney actually managed to get a few calls right.  Travis escaped multiple times when almost getting sacked, keeping 2 touchdown drives alive.  It led to a 38-24 lead by the end of the quarter that the Gators were never able to fully overcome.  Toney (again) dialed up some inexplicable coverages at times along with occasionally trying to spy Travis with a D-lineman – what a joke.  But the players were at fault oftentimes with their own poor play.  Even getting Ventrell Miller back for the 2nd half after he served his suspension for his targeting ejection in the Vanderbilt game seemingly changed nothing.

The special teams actually had one of their best games.  Adam Mihalek made all of his placekicks, Trey Smack’s kickoffs were mostly touchbacks, and the kickoff and punt coverage was solid.  Etienne had another long kickoff return to set up a second quarter score.  He really put some juice into the return game once he was inserted – it should have happened at the start of the season.

So, after all of the bluster and a roller-coaster season, Florida winds up with exactly the same record as 2021……6-6.  That gives the Gators a 20-14 regular season record since 2019, which is Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina territory……not to mention the ugly bowl losses the past 2 seasons.  For now, Florida is just another team in the SEC, and faces a critical offseason which will help determine the direction of the program going forward.  Recruiting has gone well, with the Gators’ current class inside the Top 10.  Even if the staff can hold the class together and possibly sign a few more elite players, they are going to have to hit the transfer portal VERY hard, and get extremely lucky in hitting on some immediate starters and some quality depth.  I expect a massive roster turnover, with the combination of high school signees plus transfers totalling anywhere from 35-40 players – almost half of the roster in total.

I’ll be back with my bowl game preview, and the potential matchups are not looking very exciting.  There are already a good number of players that have entered the transfer portal, with likely more to come, so what the overall roster will look like going into the game is a mystery……very similar to last year.  Good times.

Vanderbilt Review / Florida St. Preview

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Fool’s gold – so much for finishing the season strong.

In a massive step backwards, the Gators completely imploded in an embarrassing 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt – their first in Nashville since 1988.  This was a complete failure across the board, starting with the coaching staff.  This performance was very troubling, and not indicative of a team or staff showing continuous improvement and establishing a winning standard going forward.

As badly as some players performed, including some of the upperclassmen, this game was squarely on the coaching staff.  Poor preparation, terrible schemes, and a shocking lack of focus.  It appeared as if the staff was already looking ahead to the F$U game in the way they prepared the team for this game.  The playcalling on offense was mystifying – Vandy obviously sold out to stop the run, which normally would force you to pass more often.  But to come out that way from the opening snap, and to both fail to run stretch plays to the edge and not force Anthony Richardson to pull the ball way more often on the read option to pick up extra yards and extend drives was criminal.  AR wound up with 400 passing yards, but only because the run scheme was trash and the offense was in desperation mode against some prevent defense in the 4th quarter.  He again missed too many receivers on key downs, and his hail mary throw to end the game was simply unconscionable – not even trying to get the ball into the end zone, but throwing it through the uprights?!  Finally, Billy Napier started chasing points way too early, leading to 2 unsuccessful 2-point conversion tries that forced the offense to try and score twice instead of once late in the game.

The defense reverted back to it’s undisciplined ways, not setting the edge against the run, and playing soft pass coverage.  There were some mind-numbing penalties from Ventrell Miller and Amari Burney that extended Commodore drives, including Miller getting himself ejected for a targeting call that keeps him out of the first half against Florida St.  The DEs refused to play the outside run correctly, and the tackling was abysmal.  The only real impact play came from Jason Marshall, who made a great interception on a pass deep in Florida territory in the 4th quarter to give the Gators a small chance at a comeback.  Other than that, a complete collapse against a bad opponent.

Special teams was a disaster as well.  Poor coverage, a few penalties (again), another missed extra point, and what was a backbreaking mistake by Marshall, trying to field a punt inside his 5-yard line.  He fumbled, and gave Vandy a free touchdown right before the first half ended.  Yes, he’s the 3rd-string returner, but it’s on the staff at that point to tell him to NOT TOUCH THE BALL – no matter what.  Yes, this was a total team loss, and starts up the noise in the system – again.

What a huge letdown for Gator Nation.  As bad as the false hope of the previous 6 quarters of football was against depleted opponents, the performance of the coaching staff was close to unforgivable.  They of all people should know the talent limitations of this Gator team, and the precious little room for error.

It’s now on to Taliban City for the last game of the regular season to face the Criminoles.  What momentum gained from the previous 2 games is completely lost, and now Florida could have some serious injury problems at key positions to make things even harder on themselves.  The WR corps is decimated – Justin Shorter, Marcus Burke, and Xavier Henderson are out, and Ricky Pearsall is in concussion protocol.  Freshmen Caleb Douglas and Daejon Reynolds have stepped up lately, but now will be thrown into the fire as starters.  OL O’Cyrus Torrence and Michael Tarquin both will try to play through leg injuries, and aren’t close to 100%.  Of course, unless Napier gives these guys a legit game plan that makes sense, it could all be moot.  This team has to find at least a modicum of a running game to keep the defense honest and not force any more pressure on AR, who just can’t process things fast enough or be counted upon to play efficiently when forced to throw too often.  The Seminole defense has been susceptible to the running game when they’ve played a team with a pulse, so there is some hope there……but only if AR decides to run the ball himself……often enough and with authority.  If the injury report isn’t enough to make Napier force the running game – including AR – nothing will.

The Gator defense has to stop F$U’s running game first, and that includes not allowing QB Jordan Travis to hurt them on the read option or break containment on scrambles.  I’m still not sold on his ability to simply lead their offense on drives when having to rely on passing.  He does have a weapon in WR Johnny Wilson, a transfer from Arizona St. (and former teammate of Pearsall), who is a huge target at 6’7″.  RB Lawrance Toafili is involved in the passing game as well when he’s in the game.  Their leading rushers are Trey Benson and Treyshaun Ward, both averaging over 6 yards per carry.  Again, it’s incumbent on the Gator defense to stop the run and force the Seminoles to win the game through the air.  Their overall passing game is nothing special compared to teams Florida has already faced.  But, of course, there’s the Patrick Toney factor……once more we’ll see if he stays in his soft shell or allows the defense to play aggressively for 60 minutes.  Florida’s front seven has struggled often this season, but F$U’s O-line is nothing special – get at least a stalemate here and perhaps the defense can actually get enough stops to give the offense enough possessions to win the game.  Losing Miller to suspension for the first half ain’t gonna help – some of the young players will have to elevate their game.

Florida needs to play well for many reasons.  It’s bad enough they are coming off of a disastrous loss at Vanderbilt.  This game is as much about perception of where the program is headed under Napier, and will affect recruiting as well.  Get embarrassed (again) on the national stage, and it will be felt on and off the field.  The coaching staff has a lot to prove, and I’m just not sure if some of them are up to the task, short- or long-term.  I’m not confident at all that the Gators will play well, with injuries piling up and a nothing bowl game on the horizon.  It’s a shame, as F$U has built up it’s record against a garbage schedule and is nothing special, including it’s own mediocre coaching staff.  It is a rivalry game, so perhaps Florida will show up this week – it’s just a shame that we don’t know, because of the inconsistent coaching and player performance all season.

Prediction: Florida St. 38 Florida 21

South Carolina Review / Vanderbilt Preview

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The Big Payback, indeed.  Not quite as big as I would have liked, but Florida beat down South Carolina 38-6 to partially atone for the embarrassment of 2021, and made the Lamecocks look bad in the process.  

The Gator defense continued it’s recent improved play by not allowing an offensive touchdown – only a TD on a fake punt due to a blown special teams play.  The front seven did what was needed to control the game – slow down Carolina’s running game and force Spencer Rattler to beat them by throwing the ball……which he can’t do.  Princely Umanmielen continues to show out at DE, setting the edge against the run and pressuring the QB.  LB Ventrell Miller had another solid day making tackles all over the field, and the secondary was solid in coverage.  The only negative was allowing some 3rd-and-long conversions.  Shockingly, Trey Dean had perhaps his best game of the season, with solid run support and an interception.

Florida’s offense did what they should have – pounding the Lamecocks with the running game – and rolled up 374 yards on the ground.  Each RB had a good afternoon – Montrell Johnson with 162 yards and a TD, and Trevor Etienne with 100 yards, including an electrifying 84 yard TD.  Anthony Richardson again ran the ball as often as he should have been doing all season.  10-12 designated runs are necessary to keep the defense off-balance and allow him to make some big plays with his legs.  He had a nice touch pass to Ricky Pearsall for a TD, but again was scattershot with his accuracy, especially on the move.  That has to get cleaned up before the last 2 regular season games.  WR Caleb Douglas again had a few nice catches and continues to improve.  I still want to see a few more throws to the RBs and TEs to help AR out, but perhaps Billy Napier is saving those for the game 2 weeks from now.

Next up for Florida is a trip to Nashville to face Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are coming off of their first SEC win since 2019 (26 games), winning at Kentucky.  It’s been tough sledding for head coach Clark Lea to institute the latest program rebuild there, but he has one nice piece to start with in QB MIke Wright.  Wright isn’t a very accurate passer, but is their second-leading rusher on the season and has injected some life into their offense the past month.  The ‘Dores will lean on their running game, led by RB Re’Mahn Davis, who is also a capable receiver.  Once again, the Gator front seven has to focus on winning first and second down and forcing Vandy into throwing the ball.   WR Will Sheppard is a good player, and the secondary needs to focus on slowing him down.  Do these two things, and it should be a good afternoon in the Music City. 

Florida doesn’t need to change fundamentally on offense this week – continue to impose their will with a strong running game, with AR taking yards when they present themselves.  Vandy’s defense is ranked 121st (out of 131) in the country, so this isn’t the time to get fancy – pound the rock and then hit them with some key play-action passes.   I’m not sure if either of WR Justin Shorter or Ja’Quavion Fraziars are going to return from injury to play this week.  It would be nice if they are ready, but perhaps the staff is hoping to hold them out for the last game at Florida $t.

This will be another one of those noon (11 am local time) snoozer starts, but the Gators are in no position to take any game lightly this season.  Here’s hoping the coaching staff has them ready to roll from the start.  This isn’t the time to fall behind and have to recover.  I don’t trust AR enough yet to not make some mistakes each game, including some inaccurate throws, even with his good performance at Texas A&M a few weeks ago.  He still lacks consistency, although he has played better on the road than at home this season.  It’s gonna be a chilly day for football, with the game temps in the upper 30s to low 40s, but at least it looks like it will be a dry day.  Get ahead early and run the ball well, and it will feel much colder for the Commodores and their fans.  As usual, the visiting team should have almost half of the seats filled with their fans, and Gator Nation will show up at Vanderbilt this week.  Finally, I’m not buying into a lot of the fools gold that seems to be going around after the last 2 games.  Neither opponent was that good, so folks need to pump the brakes on thinking the Gators are suddenly a very good team.  They aren’t……yet.

Prediction: Florida 38 Vanderbilt 21

Texas A&M Review / South Carolina Preview

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Florida got a much-needed win in College Station, defeating a depleted and imploding Texas A&M 41-24.  The Aggies were missing 31 players due to injury, illness, or suspension, but I’ll take it.  The Gators were coming off of a beatdown to their rival and facing the possibility of falling under .500, so getting this win was huge for the mental makeup of a team trying to close the season on an uptick.

The Gators did what they should have done on offense – running at the Aggies early and often, and piling up close to 300 yards on the ground against a poor run defense.  Anthony Richardson actually did more of what he should be doing in the running game, keeping the ball more on the read option and hurting opponents with his legs to loosen the defense.  His 60-yard TD run highlighted an excellent first half for the offense, and every point was needed.  The Gators were forced into playing some young WRs due to injuries, and they stepped up.  Both Caleb Douglas and Ja’Quavion Fraziars made key TD grabs.  Ricky Pearsall was given more touches (as I’ve been begging for all season) and did damage on both receptions and on jet sweeps.  Why Billy Napier refused to do this all season is still a mystery.  The O-line blocked well, and opened some massive holes for Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne to rumble through.

DC Patrick Toney again came out in his shell, allowing another mediocre QB to look like a Heisman candidate and causing the Gators to trail 24-20 at the half.  After the Gators finally started playing closer coverage and blitzing Haynes King relentlessly, he played down to his usual level and the defense shut out the Aggies in the second half.  Ventrell Miller did a great job of defending and tackling Devon Achane in space in the flats.  The front seven actually got pressure on the QB when they blitzed, and DE Princely Umanmielen forced a strip sack and turnover to stop a Texas A&M 4th quarter drive to effectively close out the game.

I revel in the misery that is Dumbo Fisher right now.  That scumbag can’t lose enough, and one more loss guarantees they stay home for bowl season.  Not bad for the $90 million coach and the program that paid millions for their recruiting class that is already causing locker room upheaval.

Florida now returns to the Swamp for it’s final home game of the year to face South Carolina.  It is essential for the Gators to build on last week’s win and gain momentum for the coming end of the regular season.  I would hope Florida has all of the motivation it needs for this game.  They embarrassed themselves and everyone associated with the football program by laying down and quitting in last year’s game, and owe the Lamecocks the Big Payback.

Carolina is led on offense by QB Spencer Rattler, who transferred in from Oklahoma after losing the starting job there last season.  He lost the job for some good reasons – he couldn’t read defenses and was a turnover machine.  So far in 2022 he’s only marginally better, and if the Gator front seven can continue to apply pressure, they should be good.  Carolina leans on a running game led by Marshawn Lloyd – if the Gators can slow him down, then opportunities will present themselves for some sacks and possible turnovers.  Antwane Wells is by far their leading WR, but they do a decent job of throwing to their RBs, so Ventrell Miller and Co. will again have to prove they can cover and tackle well in space.

Carolina’s defense has been pushed around often this season, only to have opponents bail them out with ugly turnovers.  In their last game, Texas A&M actually outplayed them but gave the game away.  Their secondary has 11 interceptions, and their team thrives on the emotion of turning the ball over.  If Florida can continue to protect the football while getting a lead it will be very difficult for Carolina to keep it close.  Opponents have had success running the ball, and Florida needs to lean on it’s strength and continue that trend.  AR has to be aggressive and take yards when they present themselves – not be timid.  WR Justin Shorter may miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury, and Fraziers is out with a bad shoulder.  That means Pearsall needs to be fed the ball, and others have to make plays when called upon.  Of course, it would help to throw to the RBs more often, but AR simply doesn’t seem to look for it enough.

One thing the Lamecocks do have are excellent special teams. Head Coach Shane Beamer brought that with him after working under his dad at Virginia Tech for years, and he stresses it every day.  It has paid off big-time, with multiple punt blocks and other plays that have saved a few wins for them this season.  Florida has actually improved it’s kick return game the past month, and both punter Jeremy Crawshaw and PK Adam Mihalik have been solid – that needs to continue.

I still haven’t seen Florida put together two consecutive good performances, and I wonder if they will put too much into the fool’s gold of beating a reeling Aggie team and not come out with the fire and sharpness they need.  Kickoff is set for 4 pm, and the weather should be perfect.  It’s the last home game of 2022, with a lot riding on the outcome.  The crowd should be ready and the Swamp alive for what oftentimes is a less-than-compelling matchup.  I can only hope Napier and his staff ensure that the team is ready from the opening kickoff – they can start by making the team watch the tape from last year’s debacle.  This is another critical game for the “perception” of both Napier and the program’s direction.

Prediction: Florida 31 South Carolina 24

Georgia Review / Texas A&M Preview

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It was more of the same, as Florida was easily handled by Georgia 42-20 in Jacksonville.  Despite a spirited run to start the 3rd quarter, the Gators were outplayed, out-talented, and outcoached……again.  Georgia started and finished fast.  Yes, the 3rd quarter run by Florida was good to see, but it was as much a function of Georgia’s players easing up and losing focus as it was the Gators playing that much better.  I’m not buying all of that fool’s gold.

The Gator defense was again defenseless for a large portion of the game, getting pushed around at the LOS and allowing multiple chunk plays.  The lack of talent and depth in the front seven is especially noticeable against legit SEC opponents, and this was no exception.  The pass rush from the D-line was nonexistent, and the only times pressure was applied on passing downs was by blitzing, which actually had some effect when utilized……imagine that.  Until DC Patrick Toney finally allowed the coverage to tighten, Georgia had easy completions in the middle zones whenever they wanted it.  Once the coverage tightened, Florida actually made some plays.  LB Amari Burney played very well in coverage against UGA’s talented TEs, and the DBs helped force some turnovers and got the ball back for the offense.  Jason Marshall got himself off the back of the milk carton, and Jalen Kimber had some pass breakups.  Sadly, it was too little, too late, and couldn’t offset the weak run defense.

Other than the first 10 minutes of the 3rd quarter, the offense again was inefficient and stagnant.  Anthony Richerdson was allegedly hurt (again) early and refused to take positive running yards when they were available.  He (again) missed some wide open receivers for some possible big plays, and (again) simply blew some easy reads.  I really wonder if Jalen Kitna and/or Jack MIller are that bad in practice that they can’t get the chance in a meaningful situation to show if they can’t play at this level……even if only for a few series a game.  The O-line struggled with it’s run blocking, and blew a lot of assignments in pass protection, allowing guys to come free at the QB far too often.  AR simply cost the offense any chance of making this a competitive game for 4 quarters.  The playcalling was (again) very unimaginative, except for some adjustments made at halftime to provide a momentary spark.  That’s not good enough in the SEC, though.  I remain skeptical of Napier’s OC ability, and wonder if it will change next year.

Florida now travels to College Station to play a similarly-struggling Texas A&M program that has it’s own unique and well-publicized problems.  They are now on their 3rd QB, have multiple suspensions/injuries along their O-line, and are getting a huge amount of negative press about other suspensions to some of the (well paid-for) freshman class.  It couldn’t happen to a nicer person than Dumbo Fisher, a real hypocrite and unsavory coach.

It will be interesting to see if the Gator defense is allowed to play as aggressively in pass coverage for the rest of the season, or if Toney will fall back into the same passive shell.  There is absolutely no reason to do so at this point – let the kids play aggressively, have fun the rest of the way, and improve.  The loss of Brenton Cox due to being dismissed from the team could hurt on the field, but at this point he was a one-trick pony who struggled performing even that one trick.  Justus Boone, Antwaun Powell, and Princely Umanmielen get their chance at extended snaps now to see if they will be contributors in 2023.  The Aggies will start true freshman Conner Weigman at QB, and that actually may be best for them in the long run, as neither of the other two signal callers impressed.  He has played well the last 6 quarters, and led a strong comeback against Ole Miss last week that fell just short.  The guy that makes their offense run is RB Devon Achane – he’s played at an all-SEC level this year and is a multiple threat running, receiving, and returning kicks.  He is by far the largest part of their  offense.  IF……if the Gator defense can slow him down, they have a chance, but I remain skeptical until I see the proof.  True freshman WR Evan Stewart was a strong Gator lean until Napier became the new head coach, and was a big loss – he is already becoming a dangerous target.  I think we have seen that there is some real talent in the Gator secondary that just needs the opportunity – and permission – to make plays.  Will another inexperienced QB look like an All-American against Florida?  Stay tuned.

It’s gonna be very interesting to see if Napier stays painfully conservative with AR and lets him play the entire game.  It may be time to allow one of the backups to get a series or two to give the Aggie defense a different look and also perhaps give AR the chance to evaluate what’s happening from the sideline.  The passing game is just too inefficient and inaccurate to defeat legit SEC opponents, and needs a major upgrade.  The running game was handled easily against Georgia, and must bounce back this week.  Trevor Etienne seems to be becoming more and more the #1 RB each game, and Napier has to get him more touches both running and receiving.  The WRs played well against Georgia and made some excellent catches.  AR’s inaccuracy kept them from doing more and again killed some promising drives.  The passing game simply has to improve for any chance of winning.

Florida has a real chance at winning this game, even on the road, but Dumbo hates the Gators with a passion and will have his team ready despite the off- and on-field distractions.  The Gator staff will need to show it can get this team to refocus on the game, with all of it’s own off-field issues regarding the roster happening.  The running game has to be re-established, and the QB play – whoever that might be – has to be more efficient.  Sadly, I see this as another missed opportunity for Florida to get another much-needed SEC win.

Prediction: Texas A&M 27 Florida 17

Georgia Preview

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Florida renews it’s rivalry with Georgia in Jacksonville this week, and comes in as a prohibitive 22.5 point underdog.  While it’s sad to see, it’s not a surprise, given the wretched defensive play and inconsistent passing game so far in 2022.

Georgia’s offense has done an about-face, now moving the ball far more through the air than on the ground.  While they still are rushing for almost 200 yards per game, they are averaging over 300 yards passing.  There is no true number one receiver, but QB Stetson Bennett is spreading the catches around to multiple players.  TEs Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington are likely the best TE combo in the country, and given Florida’s struggles covering TEs and the middle zones this season, they will likely be featured targets again unless the Gators can prove they can cover them.  Their leading WR is Ladd McConkey, who is more of a possession threat in the slot.  Their running attack is also a multi-player affair, with most of the carries spread among Daijin Edwards, Kendall Milton, and Kenny McIntosh.  McIntosh is also a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, which will test another Gator defensive weakness.

Florida’s defense needs to play strong early, as Georgia likely comes out fast to try and jump to an early lead and force the Gators to press.  I wonder if DC Patrick Toney will finally take some big swings at personnel and scheme changes.  One that could be effective would be to play Chris McClellan alongside Gervon Dexter and Des Watson on the D-line to try and strengthen the interior.  The smaller DEs and OLBs other than Brenton Cox have not held up against the run nor shown any consistent pass rush.  Also, I expect some new starters in the secondary, like Kamari Wilson at safety and perhaps Jalen Kimber at CB.  Of course, unless the secondary is allowed to play close to the receivers to be more physical to disrupt their timing, it may not matter.  Even if Toney has revamped the entire scheme over the past 2 weeks, there is simply not enough talent and playmaking ability present to shut down Georgia’s offense.  Generating some turnovers would be a huge help, but Georgia has been very good at protecting the football.

Georgia’s defense is solid, but nothing like last season’s generational one.  They are still well-coached and rarely out of position, but have had some weak moments with lack of consistency and big-play capability compared to previous seasons.  They also have only 7 sacks and 6 interceptions in 7 games, so Florida could have some success moving the ball IF……if AR can force them to defend the entire field with a balanced passing attack.  He has to be more accurate, and has to give his receivers the chance to make plays after the catch.  He’ll also have to take the run whenever it presents itself – either by design or when a play breaks down.  Let’s be real – it’s going to take a monumental performance by AR and the O-line to score enough points to give the Gators any real chance of winning, as I just don’t see the defense holding the Puppies to less than 30 points.  The Gator running game has to find success and be a consistent threat, or else it will be a long afternoon.  Getting O’Cyrus Torrence back at OG should be a huge help.    

Florida’s special teams must have a big day.  They have shown some juice recently returning kickoffs and punts, but Adam Mihalek has struggled kicking FGs outside of 40 yards.  Any scoring chance has to be taken advantage of, with practically no room for error.

This will be Billy Napiers’ first taste of the rivalry, and over time I hope he embraces it and understands that this game is special and historically a springboard for bigger team accomplishments.  Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer focused on this game, with great success.  Napier doesn’t have the luxury they did with inherited talent, but hopefully over time amasses enough to win his share of these games in the future.  I don’t believe this one will be his first win in the series, but rivalry games always have the opportunity for a big surprise.

Prediction: Georgia 38 Florida 17

LSU Review

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Just when you think it can’t get any worse, the Gator defense files a ‘DNP-CD’ (Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision), wasting a solid performance by the offense in an embarrassing 45-35 home loss to LSU.  Once again, Florida makes a mediocre QB look like Lamar Jackson and the offense look like the Bill Walsh-era San Francisco 49ers.

Why did I use the basketball term ‘DNP-CD’?  Because it’s painfully evident that Defensive Coordinator Patrick Toney is out of his element, and has somehow made Tood Grantham look like a competent DC.  How bad are your schemes, alignments, and personnel groupings when you only get 2 stops for an entire game against an opponent who has done very little in SEC competition to date?  To add insult to injury, one of those stops was only due to a dropped pass, while the other was running out the clock at the end of the game.  That’s 3 games this season where the Gator defense has forced only a single punt, and now is the proud owner of last place in 3rd down defense – 131st – in all of college football.  Even if this defensive front seven is the least talented and deep since before Charley Pell took over in 1979, there is simply no excuse – none – for not competently putting a plan in place to get at least marginally better results.

Florida allowed Jayden Daniels to pile up close to 500 yards of offense – well over 300 of it through the air.  Lack of pressure, soft coverage, blown assignments, poor tackling – all helping to extend drives and keeping a bad defense on the field far too long.  Even LSU’s struggling running game was able to perform well, not to mention another bad job of containing QB runs and scrambles.  Just a complete failure all around.  It just sucks the life out of a team by the end, even with the spirited offensive play in the 4th quarter.

This is going to be a contentious off week for Billy Napier to show some tough leadership and get the defense some help.  Whether that’s allowing some proven guys like DL coach Sean Spencer and/or secondary coach Corey Raymond some input into the overall scheme, or sitting down with Toney and “helping” him scrap what’s not working (everything) and trying new things, something has to be done immediately.  To allow this to continue the rest of the season without a fundamental makeover would be professional malfeasance and a slap in the face to the athletes that are putting in the work and the fan base that provided a terrific home atmosphere all season.  Once again, Florida wastes what should be enough of a home-field advantage to win these close conference games and help to accelerate the rebuild left behind by the previous group of losers.  I just hope that recruiting doesn’t begin to suffer, as the 2023 class, especially on defense, looks very good and has the chance to close on a few more outstanding players.  You know that opposing coaches are negative recruiting the hell out of this pathetic defensive performance.

Florida’s offense put up 35 points, which should be more than enough to win a SEC home game.  It will never be efficient or always smooth with Anthony Richardson running the show, but he provided enough big plays to offset the usual rough patches in the passing game.  The loss of O’Cyrus Torrence for this game was felt on the O-line, but they still generated enough of a running game and protection for AR to win.  The RB rotation may have settled in, with Montrell Johnson and Travis Etienne getting the bulk of the carries, and the surprising appearance of Lorenzo Lingard for some 3rd down snaps provided some juice.  Nay’Quan Wright was strangely absent, without any news of an injury.  The TD pass to Justin Shorter on the 2nd play of the game, the 39-yard TD run by Johnson, and the electric 81-yard TD run by AR show the explosive potential of this offense.  But it isn’t efficient and consistent enough yet to control the clock and keep that horrendous defense off the field.  Once again, Ricky Pearsall didn’t get enough touches, whether due to inaccurate passing from AR or the playcalling.  He is excellent with the ball in his hands, and why he’s not utilized more on some jet sweeps remains a mystery.

After the off week, Georgia and Texas A&M are next on the schedule.  Both of those head coaches have a deep hatred for Florida and will have their teams ready to play their best.  Sadly, Kirby Smart will likely enjoy another easy win in Jacksonville, one that could be ugly.  And Dumbo Fisher somehow gets to play against another bad Florida defense and have a very good chance to win.  I can only hope there’s a come-to-Jesus reckoning with the defensive staff the next 2 weeks and these guys give the team a fighting chance.  Right now Georgia’s offensive personnel is just a bad matchup, especially at TE.  There is a chance for an upset win in College Station with some better defensive coaching, as the Aggies have had their own struggles on offense.

I’ll be back next week with my preview of the Georgia game.  It’s gonna be a rough few weeks for Gator Nation.  I hope the coaching staff can come up with something – anything – better in the next two weeks to be at least competitive on defense and continue the development of the offense.  It’s been 7 straight weeks of football, and the extra rest will help this team physically……and mentally.

Missouri Review / LSU Preview

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It wasn’t pretty, but it was a much-needed win for the Gators, celebrating Homecoming with a 24-17 win over Missouri that was less satisfying than it should have been.

At the halfway point of the season, I’ve seen enough of Anthony Richardson to know that you simply don’t know what to expect week-to-week or even series-to-series.  It’s 2022, and Florida ends up with 66 yards passing, which is unacceptable.  AR is holding this offense back, despite the conservative nature of the overall scheme and playcalling by Billy Napier and Rob Sale.  He has plenty of opportunities to take off and run for easy yards, especially on the read option, but he refuses to do it.  His scramble led to Florida’s final score to extend the lead to 24-10, but even then he took off almost too late with a wide-open middle of the field beckoning him.  Then, he turned the ball over late with a seven-point lead that gave Missouri the chance to tie or win the game at the end.

After a pedestrian first half, the running game came alive with over 200 yards in the second half alone, controlling the clock and the scoreboard until the last 4 minutes.  Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson broke off some long runs to lead two TD drives of over 80 yards, which wore down the Tiger defense.  The lack of balance with the paltry passing game was the only reason this game remained in doubt until the end, and that’s not going to win the upcoming games.  I really feel for the WR corps – they are getting too much criticism, and it has to be frustrating to block well for the run and also fighting to get open, just to have the ball thrown nowhere near too often.  Thank goodness Ricky Pearsall made such a good adjustment on his TD catch which proved to be the game-winner.

It’s really hard to watch this year’s Gator defense struggle given the new staff and system in place.  Something is fundamentally wrong, and I suspect DC Patrick Toney needs to scrap his 3-3-5 alignment, as it ain’t working.  When Florida actually put more defenders at the LOS, they did a decent job of stopping the run……then they would get away from it.  Ventrell Miller had an excellent day making tackles sideline-to-sideline, but none of the other LBs stood out.  The feel-good story of the season to date came from the play of DB Jaydon Hill, who had a pick-six to give Florida an early 10-0 lead, then made a second interception in the red zone to protect a 17-10 lead.  He battled serious injuries for the past 2 seasons, and I hope he’s due for some good luck with his health.  The soft coverage by the secondary as a whole continues to be maddening – why these guys aren’t allowed to play closer to the WRs and more physically to disrupt routes is not winning football against good teams.

LSU is next up at the Swamp, coming off of a beatdown suffered at home in Death Valley to Tennessee.  While the score wasn’t close, LSU did move the ball well.  Between turnovers and their defense getting shredded, their offense is simply not built to get into a shootout.  QB Jayden Daniels is going to be a problem for the Gator defense, as they have not stopped over even slowed a running QB all season.  He has one of the best WRs in the country to throw to in Kayshon Boutte, but surprisingly their running game has been struggling.  Daniels has masked that with his legs, and Florida had better contain the edges with a disciplined rush or it’s going to be a long night.  It’s a shame that the Gators simply don’t have the talent and depth in front seven to dominate the LOS against a weak O-line.

The Tiger defense has played poorly.  Injuries along the D-line and inexperience in the secondary have hurt them, but it’s up to AR to exploit those weaknesses.  Even a modicum of success throwing the ball should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities.  Florida’s O-line has a distinct advantage, and the running game should again be reliable if AR can provide some balance through the air.  I’m still waiting for more quick throws to the RBs in the flats to help move the ball more consistently, but is AR accurate enough to even make those easy throws?  Expect more of what we’ve seen from opposing defenses……stacking the box until the Gators can prove they can pass.

This game is certainly a measuring stick to see where Florida is halfway into the season.  They have enough experience and have played a tough enough schedule to be ready for this game.  Sadly, I get the feeling the defense is going to continue to struggle containing QB runs, while the secondary has already made enough mediocre QBs look effective.  I’m afraid it will turn into another one of those weird Florida-LSU games, where the Gators will find a way to give the game away late to the Tigers, even in the Swamp.  Brian Kelly has to be one of the most dislikable coaches in the country, with his sideline antics at Notre Dame, poor treatment of fans and the press, and his fake Cajun accent and BS “fam-uh-lee” talk about the LSU program once he arrived.  I’m not picking the Gators to win, but I’m gonna love it if they stick it to the Tigers for years of crazy outcomes that have gone against Florida.

There is one other subplot for this game, and that’s the treatment of Napier by the LSU football program while he was in Louisiana.  He was continuously ridiculed for his coaching methods and treated like a little brother that’s nothing more than a pest.  Their administration completely blew him off regarding their coaching vacancy, so he will have extra emotional energy for this series.  Maybe he can transfer some of that to his team. 

Prediction: LSU 28 Florida 24

Eastern Washington Review / Missouri Preview

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The Gators took care of business on the rarest of Sundays with a 52-17 win over EWU.  The outcome was never in doubt, as the offense was clicking early and often.  Give the Eagles credit – they moved the ball well occasionally on offense, and are an annual contender in the FCS division.  They were simply overpowered on defense and didn’t have the athletes Florida does.

Anthony Richardson was solid, despite a few incompletions due to poor mechanics – he still needs to rid himself of the habit of throwing off of his back foot too often.  He ran well early until he tweaked his ankle, but Jalen Kitna took over early and late and didn’t miss a beat.  Kitna at least didn’t appear overwhelmed, making good decisions and the proper reads, along with accurate throws.  It was a good thing for him to get some reps, as the schedule gets really difficult the next 4 games, and the Gators need a capable backup ready if needed.  The running game was solid, and the deep throws were a welcome sight.  The WRs played well – Justin Shorter and Caleb Douglas hauled in long TDs, and Ricky Pearsall took a 76-yard reverse to the house.

Florida’s defense played fairly well until the bench was cleared in the 4th quarter, but still looked weak against the run, and I’m afraid that isn’t getting fixed this season.  I would like to see Gervon Dexter moved to SSDE to at least set the edge properly, and let Chris McClellan start at DT, despite being a true freshman.  The LB corps was only marginally better at reading and filling the run lanes, while the secondary continues to struggle with the slant route.  The new starters were a mixed bag, with good plays offset by missed assignments.  But at least they were given the opportunity, and showed the coaching staff’s willingness to make some changes to try and shake things up.

Special teams are still poor.  Once again no return game of note, and EWU was able to block a FG attempt.  Trey Smack performed the kickoff duties while Adam Mihalek did the FG kicking, and perhaps this will be the norm going forward

It’s Homecoming week for Florida, and Missouri comes to Gainesville after taking Georgia to the wire last week at home.  They threw everything they had at the Puppies, and I wonder if they can come even close to replicating that effort a second straight week.  The Gators lost a day of game prep due to having the EWU game rescheduled to Sunday because of the impacts of Hurricane Ian – let’s hope Napier’s army of support staff can help make up some of the slack.

The Tiger offense is led by QB Brady Cook.  He is capable of scrambling when necessary to extend plays, and their offense is more reliant on the pass than in many years.  I hope they forget to run the ball too often, as the Gator secondary matches up well with their receivers.  Dominc Lovett is their top target, and if he is held in check, it will be harder on their offense to consistently move the ball.  However, until the run defense improves dramatically, it seems any offense will be able to move the ball and possess it longer than hoped, limiting Florida’s number of offensive snaps.  I would really like to see Gervon Dexter moved to SSDE to better set the edge against the run.  Chris McClellan needs to start at DT – he is showing flashes of being a very good player, and this would definitely improve the D-line overall.  Here’s hoping LB Ventrell Miller can play and play well – he has been playing hurt the past 2 games with an ankle injury.  The run defense is at it’s best when he’s in the game.

Missouri has had a run the past decade of some very good defensive linemen and linebackers, but this year three of their four leading tacklers are in the secondary, which shows a big dropoff along the LOS.  They are led by Florida transfer Tyron Hopper at LB, who has played very well this season and really hurt the Gators by transferring – especially at a position of huge need.  The Tigers essentially dared Georgia to throw last week, blitzing often and playing man coverage……and it worked.  I expect to see the same, making AR prove he can be a consistent threat throwing the ball while crowding the LOS to slow the Gator running game.  The slow-developing RPOs aren’t going to work until Florida hurts the defense through the air, along with running more effectively outside.  A few more swing passes to the RBs and jet sweeps by a real threat like Pearsall could prove effective.  Given the limited amount of snaps they get each game, efficiency from the offense is a priority.

Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz had his fun last year, punking Dancin’ Danny on and off the field.  I was going to label this game the continuation of Florida’s SEC East Revenge Tour, but after the debacle against Kentucky, along with a struggling defense, I just want to see an actual SEC win and to continue the recent positive trajectory of the team’s overall play.  I see this one not being settled until the 4th quarter, but hopefully with a different result this time.

Prediction: Florida 27 Missouri 24