Georgia Review / Vanderbilt Preview

The beat goes on, as the Gators found a way to lose their 4th straight game in 2011, this time to a mediocre Puppy team.

Talk about embarrassing – it took 2 Florida turnovers inside their own 20, 2 4th down TD passes, zero running game, 7 sacks allowed, an injured QB, and 14 penalties, for Georgia to barely pull out a win in the 4th quarter. The UGA kicking game was awful – and even that wasn’t enough for the Gators to take advantage of. It’s hard to believe that this Gator offense, despite it’s limitations in talent and personnel fit for the schemes Muschamp and Weis want to run, could still be performing this poorly.

The defensive gameplan was spot-on:

1) Controlled the TEs, and made Murray use the WRs, which he’s not comfortable with. Got some fortunate (to say the least) 4th down TD throws.

2) Conceded the run to some extent. It worked some for the Puppies, but they are a passing team first, and aren’t comfortable running too much. Allowed some yards between the 20s, but stiffened there. The Gator defense just didn’t close the door due to some shaky PI penalty calls and poor technique (and lack of size) by the CBs on the 4th down TD throws.

3) Controlled the screen game to great extent – again, making Murray look downfield. His stats were pretty bad.

Sharriff Floyd was a man in this game. The DL in general did more than enough to win. The secondary, less Roberson and Elam, was the unit that cracked at critical moments. Jaylen Watkins made some plays, taking advantage of the most playing time he’s received to date. Riggs and Saunders won’t be playing much in 2012 at this rate. Overall, the defense again played well enough for a decent offense to pull out a victory……which unfortunately isn’t the case in 2011. Yeesh.

The offensive gameplan was, as odd as this sounds, good as well. Spreading the field with Brantley the surprise starter at QB opened up a lot of opportunities the first half. However, poor execution, penalties, and horrid pass-blocking eventually doomed the Gators by not putting the game away early. The lack of any semblance of a running game, even with the smallish backs, was particularly alarming – an even worse performance than against Bama, LSU, or Auburn. If Burton is going to run some Wildcat plays, he has to properly execute the zone read, and keep the ball occasionally……he can make things happen with the ball in his hands. Since Brantley had limited mobility, he couldn’t execute the run game out of the I-formation, which really hampered the offense in scoring territory.

The fumbles by Rainey and Hammond were killers, and ultimately decided the outcome. I’ll give Hammond a pass because he hasn’t had fumbling problems before, but Rainey has zero excuse – he simply doesn’t protect the ball in open space.

One note on the late-game coaching strategy……I have to disagree with Muschamp taking a delay penalty and punting the ball with a 4th down and 2 at Georgia’s 33 yard line. That decision shocked me, and practically all of Gator Nation. Maybe even a worse call than against Auburn when he eschewed a late FG to go for it on 4th down in the red zone down by 8 points with more than 6 minutes left. 2 decisions that show how little confidence he has in the offense – but still poor strategy, and the second-guessing is justified. That couldn’t have helped the morale of the offense. Based on their crappy second half output, there really was no choice but to go for it that close to getting some points.

What a disaster all around. Maybe the silver lining in all of this is that Mark Pricht may actually stick around a few more years to continue the tradition at Georgia of underachieving.

The good news? Florida is dead last in the SEC and 114th in the nation in turnover margin, and dead last in the nation in penalties. YAY!!!

It’s Homecoming week for the Gators, as they welcome what has usually been a more-than-accommodating visitor in Vanderbilt. All bets are off this year, though, as Florida’s offense continues to be a mess, and the entire team continues to be an undisciplined bunch.

The Commodores have been very competitive this season, giving Georgia and Arkansas all they could handle before losing late. Their offense is not explosive, but has been steady with a good season from QB Jordan Rodgers, who is a good runner out of the Spread. Their defense leads the SEC in interceptions, which could be a bad sign for the Gators, as they will primarily be a passing team the rest of this year due to the struggles of the OL and RBs.

The Florida defense has executed the gameplan fairly well the past 2 games, but still cannot generate turnovers, and the secondary breaks down due to inexperience or lack of talent/physical play at critical times. I don’t think Vandy can exploit the secondary too much this week, but the front seven will have to play the run game out of the Spread well. The Gator DL should have the physical advantage, so the LBs can actually fill some gaps for a change and make plays.

I’ll continue to say it – the hardest thing for a young team that is struggling is to get off of a losing streak and to break the bad habits they have formed. It cost them wins against Auburn and Georgia, and could lead to a stunning loss at home this week to an opponent who they have not lost to since 1988. Expect a lot of empty seats, and a nasty crowd if things turn ugly in the first half. Despite the fact that most Gator fans knew it could be a struggle in 2011, the poor play and mental mistakes have stretched what little patience they have very thin.

Prediction – Florida 27        Vanderbilt 20

Georgia Preview

Just like last season, Florida comes into Jacksonville riding a disappointing 3-game losing streak, but this time with a new staff and a still-unsettled QB situation. The off week had to help the physical health of the team overall, but the main challenge for the coaches is to get the players into a positive mental state – no sure thing given the youth and inexperience of the 2011 Gators.

Florida’s defense will again be called upon to carry any real hope of victory. The pass rush has to improve, but the poor play of the DEs probably can’t be solved by any personnel changes – there is simply a void of SEC talent at this position. More blitzing by the LBs may be in the offing this week, but the sad thing is that this group is better in pass coverage than in run support, so that negates some of their strengths. That leaves the bulk of the responsibility and pressure on the DTs – Howard, Easley, Floyd, and Hunter. The secondary has 2 solid players in CB Marcus Roberson and S Matt Elam, but every other position in any scheme is shaky at best. No matter the personnel, it’s time to play more man-to man coverage and take your chances.

Georgia still relies on the pass for it’s most effective means of moving the football, which should help the Gators out based on their current personnel. The #1 priority is to stop the TEs from beating you……failure to do that almost guarantees a loss. That’s why I think you’ll see Bostic, Jenkins, and even Powell used to shadow Orson Charles and Aron White. They are the security blanket for Aaron Murray, as the Puppy WRs are inconsistent and simply not that scary – if they are the ones to make big plays, so be it. Malcolm Mitchell is probably their deep threat with his speed, and Tavarres King is their most experienced WR, but has never been a go-to guy. Georgia’s running game has recently begun to show signs of life again, but the injury status of Isaiah Crowell could hamper them. Given Florida’s struggles against the run recently, I’d be surprised if the Puppies didn’t try and exploit that weakness, but, again, I don’t think it’s in their nature to comfortably rely on running more than passing.

Georgia’s defensive front seven is fairly solid this season. The DL has a good size with DTs Jonathan Jenkins and Kwame Geathers (suspended for the 1st half). Jarvis Jones (transfer from USCwest) was a godsend to an underachieving unit, and Brandon Boykin can make plays in the secondary and as a kick returner. Overall not a terribly distinguished group, but it hasn’t taken much to stop the Gator offense in October. Of course, I can only hope that Florida finds a way to pull off the shocker and rub it in the face of that loser defensive coordinator, Todd Grantham, he of the choke sign to Chas Henry before his game-winning FG last year, and repeated missteps with opponents with his big mouth that isn’t backed up by a great defense.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Gator QB situation is handled this week. Will Brantley miraculously be well enough to play? Will Brissett and Driskel split halves like they did against Auburn? Can someone get a hot hand and play the majority of the game? This is what a loss to Georgia is made of unless someone rises to the challenge, and unfortunately neither of the freshmen looks the part yet. The Puppies have a good offense, not the mediocre crew that Auburn fielded that kept Florida in the game 2 weeks ago. It would be nice to see Mike Gillislee finally get the chance to carry the ball between the tackles, instead of Rainey bouncing most of his carries outside and giving up valuable yards. Maybe Jeff Demps is serviceable for a handful of meaningful snaps this week after not playing against the Tigers – the threat of his speed is still a concern for any defense, and can take some of the focus off of the young QBs.

I do believe that we will see more of the Wildcat on offense with Burton running the show. It has earned some solid yards in the running game, even in the past 3 games. The key for me is whether we will see it when Florida gets into the red zone instead of using it for getting out of the hole deep in it’s own territory. My opinion is this was a misstep by Coach Weis against Auburn, as the Gators could have punched in at least one touchdown that way to possibly steal the win.

The Gator WRs and TEs have been of zero help during the losing streak. Frankie Hammond is the only consistent performer. Coach Hill has to find a few guys that can raise their level of play to stretch the field and give the QBs at least a chance for success. Jordan Reed has been terribly inconsistent at TE – his route-running is poor, and both he and AC Leonard have been guilty of too many penalties. That simply has to stop, whether it’s by better focus or becoming comfortable with riding the bench.

Finally, the Florida OL has been inconsistent just like the rest of the team, but I still believe there is enough talent there to be effective. The OTs have struggled in pass protection, but hopefully the additional week of practice has tightened that up. The interior of the line has done an adequate job run-blocking in the Wildcat, but needs to translate that play to I-formation run plays as well.

Coach Muschamp and his entire staff have a huge challenge ahead of them the rest of the way……motivating the younger guys to continue to practice hard and improve, while keeping the seniors that have seen their hopes dashed engaged. My biggest hope is to actually see improvement in the fundamentals across the board for the balance of 2011, no matter the win/loss results.

The hardest thing for a young team to do is get off of a losing streak. Last year’s team still had a familiar coaching staff and a handful of senior leaders to pull together and get a much-needed win. Unfortunately neither of those applies to 2011, and the losing streak probably will stretch to 4 games for the first time in a LOOOOONG time. It pains me to predict this, because the Puppies are a mediocre team (as usual)……

Predictions:

Georgia 31 Florida 13 (if Brantley doesn’t play or is ineffective)

Georgia 27 Florida 20 (if Brantley is somewhat effective)

Auburn Review

2012 starts now……

Another exercise in pain and suffering for Gator fans, as Florida threw away a winnable game at Auburn with horrid QB play and unconscionable turnovers on punt returns.  Despite the fact that Brissett and Driskel are true freshmen, are they really so limited in playmaking ability right now that the playcalling is barely above high school level?  Both guys missed a slew of open receivers all evening, even when they had time to throw – troubling.  The running game was marginally better, but Rainey has never broken his habit of giving up yards to bounce to the outside.  Gillislee must really stink in practice, because even after the staff said he would get more touches against Auburn, he remained the milk carton player of the week.  The only positive to come out of the running game was that Demps was held out, so he can try to get healthy again for the rest of the season.

Hammond seems to be the only consistent WR at this point.  Thompson is no factor, and Debose is always hurt……and needs to toughen up mentally if he ever expects to be a contributor.  Jordan Reed is wildly inconsistent as a route runner, cannot set the edge in the running game, and commits too many penalties.

The OL did not play well, despite a better matchup physically than the previous two weeks.  Green is having a rough learning experience at tackle.  Even the interior did not get a consistent push most of the night, which was especially disappointing.

Charlie Weis has to coach up the young QBs on reading defenses, and get them to improve their accuracy in a hurry.  As far as the playcalling, I’m actually OK with running some Wildcat with Burton at QB, as this seems to be the only way for Florida to generate a running game right now.  What I don’t get is not using it in the red zone – instead trying to get the young QBs to make plays that they have shown no ability yet to do.

The defense played hard all evening and hustled.  There is nothing more mentally difficult than trudging out time after time knowing your offense sucks, and that the game is essentially all on your shoulders.  They were valiant to the end, but simply couldn’t generate the big plays needed to steal the road win.  Beware of fool’s gold, though, as Auburn’s QB play was only slightly better, and their OL is mediocre.  What is amazing is the complete lack of turnovers generated by the defense……maybe due to schemes in place to play things safe, but……wow.

Player of the Game?  Matt Elam.  That kid is the real deal and a future all-SEC safety.

Special teams were disastrous.  Rainey was not even allowed to catch punts after the 1st quarter, and the final drop in the 4th quarter sealed Florida’s doom.  Why even allow someone to touch the ball at that point, when that was your last reasonable chance to tie the game?

Now that the Gators have essentially no meaningful goals to fulfill for 2011, it’s time for the staff to start making some difficult and significant decisions as to personnel moves, potential roster changes, and shaping the remainder of the 2012 recruiting class…….and even looking farther ahead to 2013 recruiting as well.  The remaking of the roster to fit the talents desired by the current staff will take a few more years……and will require a lot of patience from Gator fans.

In regards to the current roster……

Ron Powell is a non-factor at this point, and the staff needs to find a position where he can actually contribute to this team.  It may be time to consider a move to the offense.

Xavier Nixon is a great kid, but is simply not physically ready for SEC football.  Maybe move him to TE.

Either Driskel or Brissett have to make a move in practice the rest of the year to stake a claim as the 2012 starter.  Yes, Brantley will return before the end of 2011, but it’s all about the future now.

Sharrif Floyd is out of position at DE, and needs to move back inside to DT.  If this means Easley slides outside to DE for the rest of the season, so be it…..this move could actually benefit both guys right now.  The entire DE position is anemic right now.  If the staff can get some quality recruits in at this position, they are going to have the chance for immediate playing time……which, of course, will be especially painful in the SEC.

The LB play is not functional.  It’s time for Michael Taylor to get major reps, let Bostic and Jenkins fight it out at OLB, and get McCray in full-time at the other OLB spot.  McCray has actually played well this year, but is not a DE, and needs reps at OLB the rest of the season.

The safety position is in shambles.  Evens is not the answer, and Saunders is a freshman who is not an SEC safety, especially physically.  This would mean playing even more inexperienced guys like Shaw and maybe Purifoy the rest of 2011, but the staff has to give them their chance to better evaluate the possibilities for 2012.

Unfortunately, October has played out as many feared, and yes, it likely will get worse, as even Georgia is superior to Florida at this point and could make it a tough weekend in Jacksonville.  The coaches have a tremendously difficult task ahead in terms of keeping the young guys motivated, and getting leadership out of a senior class that might have lost it’s focus.

L$U Review / Auburn Preview

Two blowouts in a row.  First consecutive 28-point or worse losses since 1971.  No real chance given to the offense by a sieve of a run defense.  Another weak running attack by the offense.

Other than that – everything’s good in Gator Nation.  Then again……

The biggest disappointment about this latest debacle is the lack of mental toughness.  Maybe that’s to be expected somewhat by such a young team, but it’s Florida, and the SEC……no real excuse.

There really isn’t much positive to take from this game on offense or defense.  I will say that I’m impressed with Jacoby Brissett.  The kid doesn’t panic.  He CAN run as well…….when necessary. Notice he didn’t just break outside the pocket and into sacks……he stepped up into the pocket.  Also, he seems to have good pocket awareness……pretty deft in avoiding some tacklers.  He also wasn’t afraid to step into some throws with a defender getting ready to pound him.  For a true freshman with ZERO experience……on the road at #1……pretty damn impressive.

Actually, I though Weis was too careful with him and the playcalling. Screw the 2010 Dazzler offense of running Wildcat on 1st and 2nd down, then bringing the kid in on 3rd-and-long.  Maybe Weis was trying to coach Brissett up some on the sideline periodically, but I really think the kid deserves a chance to get into some kind of groove.  That may be especially difficult given the weak running game the past two weeks, but so be it.

The only other plays being made are either by Andre Debose, who’s finally starting to show some consistency at WR, and Rainey, who made some nice runs with second effort.

The failings of the run defense is particularly embarrassing.  Perhaps the front seven isn’t physically ready yet for a 4-quarter slugfest with Alabama or L$U, but that was painful to watch.  Was it technique, physical superiority, or intimidation of a hostile SEC road crowd?  Probably a combination of all 3, but still somewhat surprising.

The staff has to find a way to get through to these kids, or else Florida is headed for a 6-6 season.  It also may be time to seriously consider some drastic changes in personnel either after the upcoming game at Auburn or in the bye week before Georgia.

Ron Powell is completely out of position at DE, and it’s a waste of time to continue that failed experiment.  Let the kid play more stand up LB and in coverage.  Also, it might be time to slide Sharrif Floyd back inside to DT, and move Easley to DE, where he can better utilize his speed and quickness.  TE is a complete mess – Reed runs poor routes and is not a good in-line blocker, and AC Leonard is a penalty waiting to happen.  Quinton Dunbar and Omarius Hines are on the back of milk cartons at WR to date – pretty stunning.

It will be two desperate teams on the Plains this Saturday night, as the loser is out of the SEC race and can start building for 2012.  Auburn has been the more consistent team overall, and has a solid road win in it’s resume at S. Carolina.  However, their offense is plagued by inconsistency in the passing game, and opponents are starting to load up to stop Michael Dyer and Ontario McCalebb.  Emory Blake is a decent WR, but there best offensive weapon is TE Philip Lutzenkirchen.  Follow his blocks to see where the running play is going, and he’s a bad matchup for almost any LB or safety – great player.  He’ll have to be stopped if the Gators have any chance of stealing a win at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Tiger defense has struggled much of the season, but did show some flashes at S. Carolina two weeks ago, and held up for one half vs. a strong Arkansas offense.  They are searching for leadership after the departure of Nick Fairley to the NFL, and are currently a far cry from the last two defenses the Gators have faced.  Of course, facing a true freshman QB can cure a lot of ills.

The Gator offense will be better this week, and Brissett should have a little more time and be more comfortable. The run game has to become at least functional this week; 120 yards or so should be enough to help out the passing game. Look for some more deep shots to Debose to at least loosen things up, and it’s time to bring back the swing pass……it works.

Not much left to say about Florida’s defense.  It’s obvious to everyone that they have been bitch-slapped the past two weeks, and have not pushed back yet.  They should be able to match up physically with Auburn’s OL, and if they get run over again, there will be serious questions about whether some of these guys are quitting on the season.  Harsh, but true.

What will it take to get the win?  Better special teams play, less stupid penalties, and the defense rising to the challenge – even perhaps getting a turnover or two to help the cause.

I actually think Auburn will be pressing as well to win, and this could benefit the Gators.  Unfortunately, the offense is still limited by a true freshman QB in only his second start, and I can’t see it overcoming another tough road crowd to get a much-needed win.

Prediction – Auburn 27        Florida 17

Alabama Review / L$U Preview

What started as a promising effort turned into an ugly affair in the second half, as Florida was worn down and eventually beaten up by Alabama in the Swamp.

We’re all disappointed, and many are pissed.  Imagine how the coaches and players feel.

It will be interesting to see how the experience of this staff, much of it from the NFL, transfers to how they get the players to re-focus and prepare for the next game.  Yeah, the QB is out, but the next guy steps in and you move on.

Florida has enough talent and playmakers to stay with Bama at home, but the loss of Brantley was way too much for the offense to overcome.  Coach Weis had an effective plan in place, but losing Brantley scuttled that plan, and Driskel was overmatched in a game of this magnitude against a strong opponent.  The passing scheme was effective the entire first half, and the Gators, while getting little to nothing from the running game, were still moving the ball through the air.  The pass protection was actually pretty good, but the OL seemed to be overpowered when trying to block man for man in the running game.  An unlucky interception for a defensive TD really changed the momentum in the 2nd quarter, and the Gators never really recovered.  There were some nice individual efforts given by Debose and Thompson, but not enough positive plays from the rest of the supporting cast.

Biggest disappointment?  Zero running game.  Biggest surprise?  No swing passes to see if Rainey and Demps could make something happen in space.

The Florida DL was, quite frankly, a disappointment.  The tackles simply did not get penetration often enough to keep the Tide offense off-schedule on first down, and the lack of top-tier DE play was sorely apparent, as Bama had no trouble setting the edge in the run game all night.  The LB play was pretty much MIA, as Bostic and Jenkins simply were whipped and overpowered.  The secondary did a good job overall, but never was truly tested as the Bama running attack dictated the action most of the game.  Again, some flashes from individuals like Easley and Howard, but no consistency, and lack of support from the rest of the defense.

No rest for the weary, as the Gators travel to death Valley to face a solid Tiger team with a great defense of it’s own.  LSU has a fast DL that can occasionally be gashed in the run game, but hasn’t really been challenged that way since their opener against Oregon.  They start 3 senior LBs, and the best playmaking secondary in the country, led by CBs Tyrann Mathieu, Morris Claiborne, and safety Brandon Taylor.  Not as physically large as Alabama, but probably a little quicker with loads of depth.

LSU’s offense is pretty vanilla with Jarrett Lee at QB, preferring to pound away with a strong running game featuring a deep rotation of RBs led by Spencer Ware and Michael Ford, with the occasional downfield throw when the defense has to put 8 in the box.  The Tigers actually have some dangerous WRs in Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham, and Russell Shepard, and hopefully they remain underutilized this week.

L$U has proven it’s mettle this season already, and will probably have to take the Gators a little lightly for Florida to have any chance to steal a win, especially given the potential offensive constraints.  The real grind of an SEC season starts to take shape with this game, and I don’t believe the Gators have enough experience and playmakers on offense to give Driskel enough help to win.

It’s hard to anticipate what kind of game plan to expect.  Coach Weis will divide a plan for Driskel’s strengths, but he simply doesn’t have any quality experience right now.  The OL has to nut up and provide some running room for Rainey and Demps.  One thing I can venture a guess about is the return of the swing pass early on to try and make some big plays and loosen up the Tiger defense.

The Gator defense will again be tested in big-boy football, as they can expect a steady diet of power running all afternoon.  I’m sure Coaches Muschamp and Quinn will have some Bama tape to provide incentive for a better effort, and I expect one.  But unless the Florida offense somehow sustains some drives to give this unit a rest, they will likely again wear down in the second half.

Probably a handful of fragile psyches right now, but this is the SEC, and it’s a “tough-ass league”, as described by Urban Meyer after he lost at Auburn in 2006 with a better team.

Charlie Weis is a smart guy, and will give Driskel a game plan he can execute with success. Now, will that translate to a win?  Not unless the defense is lights-out.  But we shall see.

It is tremendously difficult, especially with college guys, to move on from such a tough loss, especially when you’re thrown right back into the Lion’s (Tiger’s) Den the very next week with a new QB and potential scheme changes. Lots of turmoil and disappointment right now. I think we have the staff, with Muschamp, Weis, Quinn, etc., to get these kids ready to compete.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Gonna be an interesting next 4 weeks……

Prediction – L$U 30        Florida 13

Kentucky Review / Alabama Preview

Beat AlabamaThat’s 25 in a row over the Mildcats, as Florida rolled into Lexington and rolled UK. Didn’t even need to de-claw a defenseless bunch of kitties.

The biggest benefit from this game was to give the younger, inexperienced players a positive first road result. Other than Jon Halapio, it looks like the Gators escaped relatively healthy. Coach Weis used this game to showcase Rainey and Demps (again) as the home-run threats they are, and also to knock the rust off of the Wildcat formation with both Rainey and Burton running at will. Good stuff to put on film for future opponents to spend some time on. Brantley hit a home run down the seam to Christian, a pattern that has been open quite often already, but finally exploited. He also made some good throws downfield to Hammond (finally). Another vanilla scheme overall, as it was obvious early on that UK was out-classed across the board.

The Gator defense played well, but had some disappointing run support on the edges. It appeared as if the DEs simply didn’t care about the run with the Mildcats so far behind, but it showed a lack of experience and discipline that must improve. The pass coverage was generally good, with some more missed opportunities for interceptions. Again, a pretty vanilla scheme, so there isn’t much on tape for opponents to exploit.

It’s going to be a long year for UK, and the Joker will be missing from the deck if his team continues to get blown out.

On to the Bataan death march. This is the toughest month of games in many years for the Gators beginning this week against Alabama. Similar to 2010, Florida rolled through September, but hopefully will have some better results in October 2011.

There’s a lot of talk that Weis will throw everything in the playbook at the Tide this Saturday, but given how young and inexperienced this offense is, I actually think he’s going to keep the game plan simple, with just a few wrinkles in formations, and a handful of “special” plays thrown in when the situation is favorable. If you are thinking instead of playing fast against Bama’s defense, you have no chance. Many say this game is all on Brantley to perform well, but it’s the OL that will dictate any real success. This group has jelled nicely in a short time, but the leap in competition may be too much of a challenge. Again, you don’t want these guys thinking about assignments while mistakes lead to a clear path to the QB.

Bama knows that Florida will try and isolate Rainey and Demps on the LBs, whether it’s with screen passes or delay routes, so I’d expect more nickel looks than Saban usually likes to run. Even in this look, Bama will probably attempt to stuff the run,and take it’s chances with a solid secondary against a group of Gator WRs that, frankly, has underachieved to date. Weis is really going to have to be creative with the routes. There is much anticipation that, with the return of Reed, that the TEs will get a lot of chances to make plays. I’m hopeful some success will help to open up the LOS, but unless the OL holds it own, the TEs may have to be kept in to block more often than desired.

Florida’s DL performance will ultimately determine the chances of winning. This is a top 10 group nationally, and now it’s time to handle your business on your own to allow the LBs and secondary to play straight up and take their chances. It’s no secret that the Tide will seek to pound the rock to control tempo and wear down the opponent. Trent Richardson in one of the top RBs in the nation, and is also a sneaky good receiver in their screen package, which actually generates a lot of their big offensive plays. Lacy is a capable backup. I really don’t fear their TEs and WRs.

What will be a importance is getting some pressure and some hits on A.J. McCarron. The Gators need to get in his head and show what it is to play a tough SEC team on the road. Coach Muschamp will certainly have some new blitz packages not seen before this season to try and confuse him, and to get the defense off the field as often as possible.

Florida’s special teams really have to step up their play across the board starting this week. The kickoff coverage has been shaky, and Lerner is much too inconsistent as the punter so far. Poor play by this unit evens things out quickly, or even tips the momentum to a good visiting team that relies on defense and special teams first. Caleb Sturgis has to kick the ball deep on kickoffs all night. He could be the guy that the game ultimately comes down to late, and has been terrific on FGs so far.

I really think the Florida coaching staff will not give the players too much new stuff to do, and will attempt to make this a 4th quarter game, which usually favors the home team. It should be a tremendous atmosphere in the Swamp, but a stupid play on special teams or some early turnovers will negate that advantage quickly.

Too many ‘what-ifs’ for a young Gator team. The Gator in me really feels this is a winnable game, and Florida has enough playmakers on both offense and defense to get it done. However, you cannot undervalue experience and a great defense in the SEC, and I think Alabama holds on for a tough win.

Prediction – Alabama 24 Florida 17

Tennessee Review / Kentucky Preview

 Once again the Gators reminded the Vols who owns this series, putting a beatdown on the Inbreds at the Swamp. The game was essentially a 10-point blowout, as only a multitude of penalties and a turnover gave Tennessee any chance at all to score points.

 The defense achieved its goal of making the UT attack one-dimensional, stuffing the run all game long and making life miserable for trash-talking Tyler Bray, just another Vol QB to get pounded in the Swamp. The DL dominated throughout – especially Dominique Easley, who’s looking like a potential all-SEC player right now – with Jaye Howard right behind him. The return of Sharrif Floyd certainly helped out at DE, and even Ron Powell showed signs of life. Any success for the balance of this season is directly tied to how this group performs. It’s nice to see the LBs actually not have to fight off OL and get to make some plays at the LOS. The pass coverage of Jelani Jenkins was great (hands – not so much). The young secondary was tested, and had some deserved penalties, but the refereeing in general was spotty at best, and some legitimate pass breakups and interceptions were wiped away by poor calls. This group has to continue to develop mental toughness to reduce lazy penalties, but there are some future SEC-caliber players emerging. Marcus Roberson is physical enough already to hold his own against the bigger WRs he’ll face. This unit really does need the healthy return of Jeremy Brown, though. Matt Elam is doing everything at safety, but needs better (and smarter) play from Josh Evans and Pop Saunders, who is still figuring out college football.

 On offense, the Gators dictated much of the tempo all day. Chris Rainey continues his early success, and hopefully doesn’t get beaten down too much as the season progresses. Trey Burton is still the one guy that can be counted on in the red zone. The OL is improving, but time is almost up before they play the big boys of the SEC. The WR group is still a disappointment, as not one guy has shown he can consistently get open and make plays. Perhaps that is partially a function of the simplistic game plans that have lead to wins, but that won’t cut it against Alabama and L$U. John Brantley has been functional so far, but is still missing some keys throws in the red zone that should be touchdowns – especially the quick seam route to either the WR or TE in the slot. He also has to improve his touch passing as well, losing a potential TD to Omarius Hines by not dropping a soft throw into the back of the end zone. Still a few shaky throws into coverage, but not as often as in 2010.

 So much for Tennessee being relevant in the SEC yet……they are gonna get punished over the next 6 weeks.

 Now comes the first road trip of the season to Kentucky, to face a Mildcat team that is really struggling. Tough cookies for them – the Gators need to step on their throat early and knock them out. Joker Phillips foolishly talked a lot of trash when he took over last year as to how UK was going to keep making strides……well, they are moonwalking backwards at this point. The 4 straight bowl games (3 under Rich Brooks) will be a distant memory after this season. They have lost the handful of SEC-level playmakers they had on both offense and defense to the past 2 NFL drafts, and are almost bankrupt of quality talent on both sides of the ball. Out of pure anger and embarrassment, they will probably hang around for the first half, but Florida should put them away in the 3rd quarter and start resting the starters for the brutal October stretch of games.

 I expect another vanilla game plan on both offense and defense, as the Gators have too much quality across the board and will overwhelm the Mildcats.

 Prediction – Florida 34 Kentucky 13

UAB Review / Tennessee Preview

Gator FootballFlorida ended the preseason with another solid effort against UAB.  The result was an easier-than-expected shutout of the Blazers, but there is a lot for the defense to continue to work on and improve.  UAB did hit some longer pass plays, one TD being called back by a penalty.  The young secondary has to improve communication and recognition of certain patterns.  The flats are still a little soft, but that may be given to UT this week to prevent big plays and to try and make the Vols impatient.

It looks like Weis wanted the running game to get some extra reps in the second half, as there were only 2 passes after halftime.  The OL started to show some cohesion on some pulling and trap blocks, opening up some interior lanes.  This could help keep Tennessee’s offense off the field and wear down a suspect UT defense.

The Gator front seven controlled the action most of the night.  Mike Gillislee came out of witness protection to remind folks that he is a quality RB, and is Florida’s best inside runner.  Trey Burton also started to show some flashes of what Weis will have him do all year — a jack-of-all-trades as an H-back.

Now the real season starts with the Volunteers coming to the Swamp, and talking a lot of trash for a sorry-ass team for the past 5 seasons.  They have 3 weapons on offense — QB Tyler Bray, and WRs Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers, holdovers from the Lame Kiffin debacle.  On paper this would seem to be a big advantage for UT, as the Gator secondary is young and untested.  However, the Vols have not shown a real running game yet, and their OL has no idea what is about to hit them.  The Gators get Sharrif Floyd back from suspension, joining an already strong DL that will look to punish Bray and let him know Florida is not Montana or Cincinnati, where he had all day to pick out receivers.

Coach Muschamp and Coach Quinn will definitely have some new looks and schemes ready to confuse Bray, despite an inexperienced secondary.  I really don’t expect an inordinate amount of blitzing, as I think the DL can control the LOS and get pressure on the QB without too much help.  I also expect to see a lot of new looks, such as more 3-4 alignments, with extra rushers coming from different angles.  The LBs need to clean up the flats, so the secondary can concentrate on preventing big plays and busted assignments.

I get the feeling Charlie Weis is going to pound the running game to wear down a mediocre Tennessee front seven, and to control the clock and tempo.  There will be some new formations and pass plays that he has not shown yet, but the Gator OL should be able to control the action.  Once again, John Brantley will be asked to manage the game and hit the occasional big play if there, while limiting turnovers.  Time for him and the WRs to step up their level of play, starting this week.

Volsheimers is once again in full effect, and once again Florida reminds Tennessee that they are the better team.

Prediction – Florida 31    Tennessee 21

FAU Review / UAB Preview

Florida GatorsA solid debut for the Gators against FAU. Vanilla schemes on both sides of the ball, good effort, and some big plays to put the game away early.

The offense looks like it might actually have a clue this fall. Weis exploited Demps and Rainey all evening against a soft, deep zone. Brantley looks more comfortable, and his timing on the swing passes was very good. Not much shown as far as a deep game, but that was mainly due to the deep zones and also to not showing much on film for upcoming opponents. The OL played pretty well for a first game, with few penalties. However, the interior run blocking was no better than average, and must improve as the competition toughens.

The defense dominated the first half, but was a little ragged the second. Easley and the other DL looked very good, getting quick penetration on almost every snap, and playing the run well. The LBs flowed to the ball well, but were sloppy in covering the flats and TE. The young secondary wasn’t really tested, but has a long way to go the be SEC-caliber. Decent tackling, but some silly penalties and blown coverages.  Finally, the news is good about the Sharrif Floyd suspension – he’s out one more game (this week), and will return for Tennessee.

UAB comes the Swamp this week, and they should prove to be more of a challenge. The Blazers have plenty of experience going on the road to face top teams, and will be a good measuring stick for Florida to see how much the Gators improve after week 1. UAB runs a 4- and 5-WR spread offense, a completely different look for a young Gator secondary, and I expect some struggles this week.

The Florida OL has to continue to mesh, and it’s time to show a little bit more downfield passing. I hope to see the TE become more of a threat this game. Demps and Rainey will always be capable of popping the big play, but consistent interior running lanes have to be made. The Gator defense will continue to rotate a lot of players in to get as much experience as possible before the SEC season starts.

UAB may stick around into the second half before Florida wears them down. It wouldn’t be a bad thing to see the team pushed harder to see how the younger players respond to some pressure. The mantra continues to be weekly development, and NO INJURIES.

Prediction – UF 38 UAB 17

FAU Preview

12Time for a fresh start across the board for the 2011 Florida Gators.  It starts with new Head Coach Will Muschamp, an almost completely new staff, and (hopefully) better coaching and play on the field this season.

Most of the off-season attention has been paid to re-building the offense.  The confidence of the entire unit, especially John Brantley, must have been shattered by abominable coaching and coordinating by the Dazzler, and Charlie Weis has a monumental job to get these guys believing they can compete in the SEC again.  I expect a vanilla scheme for the most part in the opener, but it appears Brantley will play more than you would normally expect, needing as many reps as he can get in the new offense before the SEC season starts.  Florida should be able to overpower FAU on the ground, but the timing and honing of the downfield passing game need to develop right away.

The perceived strength of the 2011 Gators is their defense, but this is a very young group with a thin depth chart at LB and in the secondary.  The defensive line will have to lead the way all season, starting in the opener, by getting run penetration and pressure on the QB.  Expect most of the roster to get some snaps in this game.  The linebackers and secondary have a few weeks to gear up for the SEC schedule, and still have along way to go to establish communication and cohesiveness.  That position is going to struggle at times in 2011, and it will get ugly at times.

FAU might hang around for 1-2 quarters on emotion and adrenaline, but Florida outclasses them across the board.  One coach starts his head coaching career, while another (Howard Schnellenberger) begins his last season.  The mantra for the opener is, as always, NO INJURIES.

Prediction  – UF 41        FAU 13