It’s a huge showdown in the Swamp this Saturday, with Florida hosting Ole MIss. Both teams are coming off emotional wins last week, and each tries to keep the train rolling in SEC play. The Rebels closed out former head coach Lane Kiffin and his new school, LSU, at home, and will provide the first of a handful of huge challenges for the Gators this season.
The Rebels are led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, who pilots a fast-paced, high-scoring offense that is similar in style to Auburn, but is faster and more efficient and led by a much better QB. Chambliss is a dangerous runner and a better passer than Byrum Brown, and leads the SEC with 308 passing yards per game. He’s also their second-leading ball carrier, showing how important he is to the offense and why he’s a Heisman candidate. Kewan Lacy is in the discussion for best RB in the SEC, and is also a decent receiver. His status for the game will be watched closely, as he injured his shoulder against LSU and will be a game-time decision. If he can’t play or sees limited action, that’s a big help for the Gators. WR Deuce Alexander is one of the fastest players in the country, leads the SEC in receptions and receiving yards, and is Chambliss’ primary target. TE Caleb Odom is a huge target and averages 19 yards per catch. Ole Miss has plenty of weapons to challenge Florida’s defense, and the Gators have a tough task ahead just to slow down the Rebels somewhat to give their offense enough possessions and scoring opportunities to win. DC Brad White and Head Coach Jon Sumrall are not happy with the defensive results so far, nor should they be. There have been too many missed assignments in the secondary allowing easy pass completions, and the LBs – thought to be the strength of the unit – have not had much impact. If this means simplifying the scheme to let the defenders more easily identify their responsibility each play, then have at it, because Ole Miss will carve them up if they don’t improve. The D-line has been solid so far, and had it’s breakout performance at Auburn. Now – can they continue that level of play? They’ll have to disrupt the Rebel offense and get Chambliss off of his first read. He’s elusive enough that he can make scramble plays against any defense in the country, but he also will turn the ball over when successfully pressured.
Florida’s offense will again have to be proficient and score a lot of points. The Ole MIss defense can be had, especially in the passing game, so I expect more up-tempo pace and passes that attack all 3 levels of the Rebel defense. In a perfect world, the Gators could control time of possession by running Jaden Baugh and Duke Clark a combined 40+ times and limiting the number of possessions for the Rebel offense. But given Florida’s defensive lapses to date plus the elite playmaking ability of Chambliss, I don’t think they’ll have that luxury and will need as many scoring opportunities as they can get. Having this game at home should be a huge advantage for the Gator offense to limit penalties and communicate play calls quickly. Florida’s O-line will have to play it’s best game yet, as the Rebels have rolled up 22 sacks through just 3 games. The OL have to clean up some pass protection issues, especially the tackles. Suntarine Perkins is one of the best pass rushers in the SEC, and the Ole Miss LB corps is strong and includes the team’s 3 leading tacklers, including Tah’j Butler and Keaton Thomas.
Florida does seem to have a slight advantage on special teams, and winning in the margins may be the difference. PK Patrick Durkin has been great so far, and VB3 is a threat in the return game when given the chance. Every phase of the game will need to be on point to win.
This game has the makings of another wild shootout. It will be interesting to see if Florida’s coaching staff can get it’s younger, less-experienced team refocused. Ole Miss has now played it’s last 6 games going back to last year’s Playoff against ranked opponents, going 5-1. That experience against tough competition can’t be overstated, and gives them a decided mental edge. If things go sideways early for them, they will not panic. Florida won’t have the luxury of easing off in the 4th quarter like last week – this game will be a 60 minute war, and likely not decided until very late. I picked Ole Miss to win in my preseason preview, and I’m going to stick with that, despite Florida’s marked improvement from last season. The Gators certainly have a chance to win – especially at The Swamp – but will have to play even better overall than against Auburn to do it. Winning the turnover battle and limiting penalties will be critical to Florida’s chances.
Prediction:
Mississippi 38
Florida 35