Georgia Review / Vanderbilt Preview

This was my 35th consecutive Florida-Georgia game, and I have to say it was one of the most shocking results of all of them. The Gators came in with a likely dead-man-walking Head Coach, off of 2 crushing defeats, and with a true freshman making his first ever start. The Puppies came in riding a 5 game winning streak including 2 big road wins, and with a chance to run the table in the regular season and set up a shot at the College Football Playoff if they managed a win in Atlanta.

And Florida kicked their a** right out of Jacksonville.

So much for Georgia turning the series around, and just another example of Helen Hunt, er, Mark Richt, blowing another big game in the clutch. This result was an indictment of the entire Puppy coaching staff, as they couldn’t solve the most basic of game plans and obviously did not have their players mentally ready for such an important game. I hate seeing Florida in a spoiler role, but love to see the Gators do it to Georgia most of all.

There’s not much analysis needed for this one:
60 runs, 6 passes
Total domination of the LOS from late in the 1st quarter until the end of the game
418 yards rushing, the second-most ever allowed by the Puppies
2 RBs just under 200 yards each
A season-crushing loss for Georgia – the best kind
“Come get some” – LMAO

I think that after the staff figured out something in the running game, that plus the windy conditions dictated the play-calling. Still, it was stunning (and fantastic) to watch what looked like a ‘Back To The Future’ performance, one witnessed all too often by Gator fans in the ‘70s and ‘80s in this game – a running game that slowly and inexorably choked the life out the opponent, and left them beat up and humiliated.

Obviously the players of the game are the O-Linemen, who had to relish the chance to play smash-mouth football all afternoon. I’m not going to overlook the blocking by the WRs, especially Demarcus Robinson, who personally helped break 2 long TD runs by picking off 2 separate guys – simply a great effort. I’m not discounting the excellent running by Matt Jones or Kelvin Taylor either – both ran hard and physically. It’s unfortunate that Treon Harris couldn’t get more passing done in order to start building some chemistry with the WRs, but getting a win was paramount to anything else. Hopefully he gets his chance the next few weeks, which will help balance the offense and keep the defense from consistently loading the box.

The defense made some adjustments after the 1st quarter, which started out badly – there’s no way to sugarcoat it. The run defense was gashed for over 100 yards and was on it’s heels. Obviously the emergence of the Florida running game changed a lot of how the rest of the game played out, but the front seven still has some issues to be worked out. I will say that Georgia has successfully run the ball on everyone this season, so it’s not all on the defense – sometimes you have to credit the opponent. Tank Morrison seems to have rediscovered the hard-hitting style he showed 2 years ago as a freshmen, and led the team with 15 tackles. At least the frequency of big runs was slowed dramatically in the second half, and the biggest Gator defensive play was made by Brian Poole, hustling downfield to strip the ball away from Nick Chubb and ending the last real chance of the Puppies getting back into the game late in the 3rd quarter. Once the game was put on Hutson Mason’s shoulders, there was little doubt of the outcome.

Now it’s on to Nashville to face Vanderbilt. Sadly, the Gators have some payback to deliver after last year’s embarrassment. More importantly, though, this team and coaching staff need to put 2 good games in a row together to prove that last week wasn’t simply an aberration, but a sign that this team can actually improve and become more consistent.

I don’t expect much change in the offensive game plan – lots of power running against a suspect rush defense, but perhaps a few more passes and some on 1st and 2nd down in case the Commodores load up the box early. I do think that the windy conditions last week played some part in only throwing 6 times. I don’t expect the weather to be a real factor – the forecast at kickoff is temps in the 40s with a 10 mph breeze. Hopefully the offense continues to respond to Harris at QB, and the OL doesn’t sustain any more injuries – I don’t expect to see Trenton Brown play this week after hurting his knee. We will see how Matt Jones responds to the workload against Georgia – his knee has been an ongoing problem, and he’s a big part of the offense going forward. I know Kelvin Taylor had to have relished the opportunity to get over 20 carries and get into a rhythm after really struggling most of the season. The only worry is that the WRs become disenchanted with the minimal number of passes, but at least for one game they blocked very well and didn’t sulk.

The Gator defense should be able to control the LOS and hold the number of points allowed down. The only consistent threat right now is RB Ralph Webb, but there is no way that Vandy’s O-Line approaches that of Georgia’s. The front seven still have to stop the running game first, and the LBs need to show they can maintain their level of play from last week. It looks like Keanu Neal will be out a few weeks at safety with a high ankle sprain, so Jabari Gorman has to step in and play smart football.

Make no mistake – while beating Georgia was huge for the program and for Will Muschamp, neither is out of the woods. Florida needs to build on it’s performance in Jacksonville and start enjoying football again, while Muschamp likely has to win until the F$U game to salvage his job. This is precisely the kind of set up that the Gators have failed miserably at since the start of 2013, and that is why the staff has to re-focus the players on this week only. It’s definitely not an optimal environment in which to coach and play in, but everyone has contributed to the current situation, and it will take everyone to improve it.

Prediction: Florida 27 Vanderbilt 14

Georgia Preview

Where to begin……

After an off week filled with bitching about Will Muschamp not being fired and the 2015 recruiting class taking some major hits (both stud LBs decommitted), Florida has to somehow focus on the remainder of the season, starting with the annual visit to Jacksonville to face Georgia.

One bit of good news for many is that Treon Harris will start at QB.  While the offense may rally around him and show some life, he is still a true freshman making his first collegiate start, with minimal experience gained so far.  By all accounts his disposition is very calm, and he is not easily rattled or intimidated by the task at hand.  He does come from a football family (his dad, Ice, is a coach at scUM and is a legendary high school coaching figure in Miami), and won a state championship at Booker T. Washington, a national power.  Perhaps Kurt Roper can devise a game plan that is unique to Harris’ skill set and one that hasn’t really been seen on game tape from this season to date.  It will be interesting to see if the Puppies choose to sit back and try to confuse Harris by disguising schemes, or simply come after him often, making the Gator skill position players prove they can actually make an impact.  I’m not sure what to expect from the RB position.  Perhaps Matt Jones is healed up enough to provide some tough inside running, while Kelvin Taylor has been MIA, and hopefully used the off week to get his mind right.  I’m hopeful that Demarcus Robinson can make some huge plays downfield, and perhaps (finally) Andre Debose will get enough touches on offense to perhaps break a long gain or score.  As for the rest of the WRs and TEs, until I see production on the field I have no clue as to whether anyone can make an impact – a sad state of affairs.

The Gator defense knows what to expect – lots of power running plays featuring Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb.  I expect Gurley will be back from suspension (of course) and fresh, but Chubb has filled in nicely in his absence, with no real falloff in production.  QB Hutson Mason is efficient, but not really a guy that can go strictly to a passing game if needed.  Most of his throws are very safe, with few deep shots.  The Gator secondary will likely play man coverage to allow the front seven to focus on stopping the run.  The week off should have allowed some major cogs like Dante Fowler to heal up, but the group of young D-Linemen has to elevate their level of play and somehow make some game-turning plays.  Until the LB corps proves it can stand up in a 4 quarter game against a power running attack, I can’t expect that to happen.  Forcing some turnovers is probably the only way to get Georgia to play out of it’s comfort zone and rely more on passing.

If Florida loses and is not competitive, this may very well be Muschamp’s last stand.  There is too much uncertainty right now that is further damaging the program.  A bad finish to 2014 likely sets Florida back another 2-3 years while a new coach comes in the try and resurrect a once-proud program.  It’s hard for any Gator fan to sit and watch while the program sinks lower than it has been in 40 years.  Jeremy Foley is getting closer to either retirement or perhaps something new (SEC Commissioner?), and this could be his last chance to fix a bad hire.  His legacy is secure in that the athletic program is financially in the black while being one of the preeminent programs in the nation……but this could be an unfortunate stain on his record unless he hits a home run with a new Head Coach.

Right now, even with a positive jolt from a new QB and a week off to prepare, I just don’t see the Gators winning this game without help from Georgia in the form of turnovers.  Perhaps an early emotional surge could put doubt into the minds of the Puppies, and turn things Florida’s way.  It’s sad that a scenario like that may be the only path to an upset.  I can also see Georgia jumping out to an early 7-10 point lead against an inexperienced QB that demoralizes a fragile team.  Right now it appears that Muschamp likely rides off into the sunset winless against his alma mater……and doing more damage to Florida than Georgia ever could do on their own.

Prediction:  Georgia 31      Florida 13

 

Missouri Review

From Ripley’s Believe It or Not, to Theater of the Absurd……

It all came crashing down on Will Muschamp, as the Gators completely laid an egg on both offense and special teams in a desultory Homecoming loss.  After that abysmal performance, it looks like he won’t survive as head coach, and another transition period in Florida football may begin……again.

The not-so-special teams got things started on a bad note, allowing Missouri to run the opening kickoff back for a TD to set the tone for a miserable night.  Just to cover all the bases, they also allowed a punt return TD that essentially iced the game at the start of the second half, and had an extra point blocked as well.  This was a perfect example of the inconsistency that has plagued Muschamp’s tenure, as one unit will have a great week (special teams almost won the LSU game), and then turn right around and collapse.

The offense was dysfunctional……again……as neither QB could establish a decent passing game.  To add insult to injury, both Driskel and Harris fumbled inside their own 20-yard line, Driskel’s resulting in a scoop-and-score, and Harris’ in an easy scoring “drive” for the Tigers.  Driskel capped off his lousy evening with a pick 6 that emptied the Swamp, leading to embarrassing television shots of empty stands, further damaging the program.  Harris managed to get the offense moving a little in the 4th quarter, but against Missouri’s backups and with the game out of reach.  Still no sign of the effective running game from earlier in the season.  Matt Jones still isn’t 100%, and the injuries he has suffered throughout his career have noticeably affected him.  Kelvin Taylor has little confidence right now, and his unhappiness with lack of playing time seems to be affecting his game.  But perhaps most disappointing was the glaring lack of touches for Brandon Powell until the 4th quarter.  He showed flashes against LSU of being an effective spread RB – but it’s just another example of poor management of talent on the offensive side of the ball……and falls directly into Muschamp’s lap.  The O-Line and WRs really looked dispirited as well……the strain of the poor QB play has affected their focus (although, to be fair, the WRs have brought a fair share of this on with a ton of drops).

It’s difficult to judge how the Gator defense performed, as the offense and special teams gave Missouri 28 points alone on returns, and a “drive” of less than 20 yards.  Again, how long can you go to that well before those guys finally crack and give in to the negativity flowing from the offense?  And how long before the locker room becomes fractious (again)?  The return of VH3 had a noticeable effect on the secondary, and the front seven looked solid……but admittedly against an offense partially reined in due to the lopsided score.

I’ll end this week’s article with these gems:

> Here’s an incredible statistic – in the past 10 years, teams that have allowed less than 120 yards of offense are 147-2.  The 2 losses?  By Florida, to F$U in 2011 and now to Missouri – BOTH AT HOME!!

> There was a quarterback in Saturday night’s game between Florida and Missouri that completed only 6-of-18 passes for a total of 20 yards — or 1.1 yards per attempt — with no touchdowns and an interception.  That quarterback played for a team that managed only 119 yards of total offense, averaging only 2.4 yards per play, and committed 11 penalties for 74 yards.  That quarterback was Missouri’s Maty Mauk, and his team won by 29 points.

As Paul Harvey used to say, “and that’s the rest of the story”……

We will see what the off week brings as far as the state of the program.  Will Jeremy Foley finally pull the plug?  Is he vainly waiting until the Georgia game to see if the offense shows a pulse with Treon Harris starting?  Can a team with little senior leadership hold it together mentally and put forth a solid effort in Jacksonville?  Will that even matter?  Perhaps Foley has already made his decision privately to jettison Muschamp, but there are pros and cons to announcing it now or waiting until the season ends.  Ironically, if Foley decides to fire Muschamp, and does it now, it could get the offensive recruits excited about coming to Florida.  It’s harder than ever in the modern recruiting cycle to have kids stay patient and wait and see what happens as late as the beginning of December.  It’s crazy, as that’s still 2 full months until National Signing Day.  The mind of an 18-year old football player is a mysterious thing……

See you next week with my preview of the Georgia game.  Hold on……it could be a bumpy ride!

LSU Review / Missouri Preview

LSU Review / Missouri Preview

Ripley’s Believe It or Not, I present to  you……

……the 2014 Florida-LSU game.

You can’t make this stuff up.  What was a great, but ragged, effort went for naught due to a series of unbelievable events that cost the Gators an important SEC win, and makes you wonder how the players will react and come back from it.  The team played hard for 4 quarters and seemed to have put the events of the week leading up to the game behind them.

I have to start with praising Andre Debose and the return team for electrifying the Swamp with a great night.  He is possibly the most dangerous return man in the SEC, and maybe, just maybe, this game makes him a consistent threat the rest of the season.  Perhaps he will also get some more touches on offense as well.

As for the winner of the “Who Feels the Worst” award, I’d have to say it’s a tie between Brian Poole on defense and Tevin Westbrook on offense.  Poole somehow did not get the check on the pass play that went easily over his head, allowing LSU to covert a 3rd-and-25 that led to their taking the lead with under 4 minutes to go.  And if that wasn’t crushing enough, Westbrook dropped the likely game-winning TD pass from a scrambling Driskel with under 2 minutes to go.  It would have forced LSU to drive the length of the field with a below-average passing game and no timeouts.  This was Twilight Zone material……everyone is still shaking their \heads about 2 plays of that magnitude happening in the same game.

On offense, Jeff Driskel still made some bonehead reads and missed opportunities for long pass plays, but showed real toughness in carrying the ball 21 times due to a depleted backfield, and still made enough plays to win.  He was betrayed by a terrible read on the last interception that put LSU in position for the game-winning FG, and by too many drops (again) by the WRs and TEs – especially the inexplicable drop by Westbrook.  The injury to Matt Jones really hurt the running game – Kelvin Taylor and Mack Brown are MIA, and Brandon Powell is not a short-yardage specialist.  At least Powell showed flashes of becoming a playmaker in the Spread, proving elusive in the open field.  I am perplexed as to why Kurt Roper did not have Driskel try to ram the ball in from 2 yards out with 3 opportunities, or even line him up under center and try 3 sneaks.  The O-Line played reasonably well, especially given the fact that an inconsistent passing attack allowed LSU to put 8-9 guys in the box.  Driskel and Demarcus Robinson were able to hook up on what should have been the play of the game, a 73-yard bomb down to the Tiger 2-yard line.  But failure to punch it in from there ultimately doomed the Gators.  Ugh.

The defense had it’s moments, but allowed 2 time-consuming drives as LSU gashed them with the running of Leonard Fournette.  That isn’t a crime……but what was criminal was allowing the 3rd-and-25 pass completion late in the 4th quarter which led to a go-ahead score.  Apparently another miscommunication in the secondary let the Tigers off the hook until Driskel’s long pass to Robinson.   Jalen Tabor did a fine job filling in for VH3 when he left due to a head injury – he will be an excellent SEC CB in the future.  But the loss of VH3 was telling on that play, as Poole was forced to play outside instead of where he more comfortable – in the slot.

It’s on to Homecoming, as Missouri comes to Gainesville after getting hammered by Georgia 34-0 at home.  A lot of teams have payback in mind for the Tigers after they took advantage of a weak SEC East last season.  They are starting to feel the loss of 4 senior starters on the O-Line in league play.  QB Maty Mauk was horrible last week with 4 int.  Time for DJ Durkin and the defensive staff to borrow a lot from that game plan and continue to do the same this week.  I think the Gator defense should be able to have a good game, as the Tigers do not have the power rushing attack that LSU does.  The secondary is actually playing better overall, despite the one meltdown play last week.  Missouri will look to take advantage of the Gator LB corps on intermediate routes, so it will be interesting to see if Florida runs more 4-2-5 sets to insert an extra DB.  The return of VH3 cannot be understated – it will be a lift to the entire defense.

The Gators will utilize 2 QBs this week, as Treon Harris returns from his suspension and a hellish week personally.  I hope he can somehow refocus on football and provide a nice change of pace to Driskel.  We shall see how the offense responds when Harris is in the game, and also how they adapt to changes at QB during the game.  Of course, the main thing for the Gators is getting a healthy Jones back at RB, and somehow unlocking the Taylor mystery and getting him going.  If there is no running game, neither QB is equipped to rely solely on the passing game right now.  And it’s time to start playing some new guys like CJ Worton at WR, until Quinton Dunbar can somehow regain his confidence and relax during the game and make the simple catches.

Will Muschamp, and Gator Nation, really needs a win this week.  A Homecoming loss might get the ball rolling behind the scenes for Jeremy Foley to have to begin a coaching search, despite his statement that Muschamp will not be evaluated until after the season is over.  Florida still has a chance at securing a quality recruiting class if the current staff stays in place.  Finally, the program is in desperate need of some positive momentum heading into the bye week before playing Georgia.

Prediction:  Florida 24        Missouri 23

Tennessee Review / LSU Preview

Another big-time SEC atmosphere in Knoxville, heightened by the checkerboard pattern in the stands, and the anticipation that Tennessee would finally end their 9 game losing streak to Florida……NOT.

It took way too long, but the Gator offense finally put some drives together in the 4th quarter to win 10-9.  You know it’s a tough loss when the opponent’s fans are so stunned they can’t even yell at you after the game!  Not sure how much easier the Gators can make it for the Vols, with no passing game, a turnover machine at QB, AND a short field twice to start the second half.  Let the Inbreds chew on that for a long time……if they have any teeth.

Sadly, still more issues need to be addressed after being thatclose to having the entire season unravel and possibly dealing with a dead-man-walking head coach.  Another terrible performance by Jeff Driskel finally led Will Muschamp to pull the plug and insert Treon Harris.  And the kid came through in a bad situation.  Harris looked calm and under control, even with a limited playbook to choose from.  He hit a few key passes to extend the 2 scoring drives, and also looked good running the ball.  The real offensive player of the game (and season to date) was Matt Jones, who wore down the Vol defense with tough runs and was a steadying influence on Harris and the entire offense.

The defense was the star of this game.  Time and again these guys went onto the field knowing they had to bail out an ineffective offense, and also likely having to generate some turnovers in order to set up scores.  And sure enough, they came through in the clutch time and again.  Early in the 3rd quarter they were called upon twice inside their own 25-yard line after Driskel interceptions, and each time they stood tall.  VH3 came up with a huge end zone interception, and then with the Vols starting at the Gator 13-yard line, the defense stoned Tennessee, forcing a field goal.

Obviously there were many individual players that contributed on defense, but special mention needs to be made of VH3, Jalen Tabor (thrown in as a true freshman CB against a quality WR corps), Dante Fowler (who was in the backfield all afternoon terrorizing Justin Worley), Jonathan Bullard (who made a lot of plays stuffing the run), and also Bryan Cox, Jr. (who had 3 sacks).  It’s extremely difficult to keep going to that well, knowing it takes only one crack to lose the game.

It really was an unnecessary escape against a team with frankly a weak O-Line and D-Line, but that’s what ineffective QB play and turnovers can do.  I am still struggling to understand Muschamp’s stubbornness in making the change to Harris.  It was obvious that both the offense and defense rallied and were energized after he came in.  Usually, there’s no going back after that decision has been made, but……

……in the latest episode in the tragicomedy that has been Gator football the past 4 1/2 years, Harris is now suspended indefinitely after being accused of sexual assault.  Whether the accusations prove true or not, he will now miss at least a few weeks, if not the balance of the season, completely away from team activities.  That means Driskel is the default starter, with zero confidence from perhaps anyone other than himself and Coach Muschamp in his ability to lead this team.

LSU comes in to this game with a lot of problems of their own – including QB play.  Anthony Jennings started the season, but was benched in favor of true freshman Brandon Harris late in their bad loss at home against Mississippi St.  Unfortunately, Les Miles may have learned the hard way that starting a true freshman on the road in the SEC is almost always a losing proposition, as the Tigers were pounded at Auburn last week.  I’m afraid Miles will go back to Jennings, whereas I’d like to see Harris struggle against the Gator defense.  The Tigers will rely largely on their running game – I expect to see a heavy dose of Kenny Hilliard and Leonard Fournette.  Eventually they will look to break some pass plays with quality WRs Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural.  The Gator secondary again will need to stay disciplined and keep everything in front of them.

On offense, I have no clue as to how Kurt Roper will decide to attack LSU, now that Driskel is starting.  Maybe it will be an ugly running affair to keep the game close and see which team blinks first and makes a crucial mistake.  What I simply can’t comprehend is why some back-shoulder and fade route throws aren’t attempted more often – these are low risk throws, and often result in completions or penalties to extend drives.  These throws are not difficult – especially since Driskel has not shown any touch on dump offs or deep throws.  I’m not going to put all the blame on his shoulders, though.  The WRs are still having too many drops, and I sure as hell hope it’s not because they are upset about who the QB is – that is unacceptable.  Demarcus Robinson and Quinton Dunbar need to get their minds right and start playing SEC-level football, consistently.  I hope Matt Jones isn’t getting used up too early, as he’s carried a heavy load early this season.  Kelvin Taylor has not looked anything like he did at the end of last season, and has to improve.  It hasn’t been all doom-and-gloom for the offense, though.  The O-Line actually looks competent this season – thanks to a great coaching job by Mike Summers.  The pass protection has been good, and it’s nice to see blitzes actually get picked up for the most part.  There were some communication breakdowns, but when the opponent knows your QB can’t pass effectively, they can jam the box and take lots of chances.

Just when there was a spark of hope and something for Gator Nation to be excited about and get revved up for a huge game Saturday night in the Swamp against LSU, another kick in the groin to the program and fan base.  I don’t know how the staff can rally the players to support Driskel at this point, as his performance has been awful the last 2 games.  Somehow the players (and fans) need to support him, dig down deep, and do what extra they can to make plays and scratch out some wins going forward.  Hopefully the shock of the Harris suspension will have worn off by Saturday, and the Swamp will be rocking to try and help the Gators get a critical SEC win.  As long as Florida avoids turnovers, I think that enough plays can be made in all 3 phases of the game in order to pull out a tough win…….but it could be ugly in the process.

Prediction:  Florida 20        LSU 17

Tennessee Preview

It’s been a long off week, as fans and media have been relentless in their criticism of the coaches and players after getting run off the field in the second half at Alabama.  Losing the way it happened really left a sour taste in the jaws of Gator Nation.  That being said, the timing actually was best for the team to refocus and get back to fundamentals in practice, with all that needs to be worked on.  If reports from insiders are true, at least some of the problems and criticisms will be answered this week, as change is in the wind at multiple roster spots, especially the sieve that has been the secondary and the underachieving play at QB.

Tennessee surprisingly stayed close to Georgia throughout their game last week, which leaves some doubt as to the ability of each of those teams.  On offense, Justin Worley looks to have improved at QB, and has a group of good WRs with nice size, including Marquez North, Pig Howard, and Josh Smith, which will prove to be a challenge to the revamped Florida secondary both physically and schematically.  Still, stopping the running game comes first, which makes pass defense that much easier when the opponent is in obvious passing situations.  Freshman Jalen Hurd is a big back similar to Alabama’s Derrick Henry, and must be shut down.  The rotation at DT for the Gators  has been OK, but at this point it’s obvious that Darius Cummings, Leon Orr, and Jonathan Bullard simply aren’t elite DL, and rarely make significant plays.  Younger players such as Caleb Brantley and Gerald Willis have already shown the ability to make some plays, and likely will see more time starting this week.  The Florida defense will face a Tennessee O-Line that replaced all of it’s starters from last year.  Despite their seemingly good performance at Georgia, I feel the Gators can dictate the LOS and get pressure on the QB without having to resort to extensive blitzing.  If that happens, then it could be another brutal day for them.  Dante Fowler has been very good off the edge, and Alex McCalister is starting to show flashes.  The revamped secondary should have freshmen Quincy Wilson and Jalen Tabor seeing more time at CB opposite VH3 – this should allow Brian Poole to move back to the slot, where he is more effective.  Duke Dawson will get his chance at safety, where Jabari Gorman and Marcus Maye have really struggled.  Keanu Neal, while doing a great job of generating turnovers,  has been burned too many times peeking into the backfield and biting on head fakes – he needs to improve in this area immediately.  The linebacker play has been spotty as well – decent against the run, but poor in coverage.  Jarrad Davis hopefully is healthy enough to go, while Michael Taylor and Tank Morrison simply have to play better, or risk seeing the bench in favor of inexperienced guys like Matt Rolin and Alex Anzalone.  The recruiting at this spot the past 3-4  years in terms of talent and quality depth has suffered, and is being reflected in the performance of this unit.

Overall, DC DJ Durkin, Secondary Coach Travaris Robinson, and Muschamp may have to simplify the schemes just to get players in the proper positions, which limits the amount of blitz and cover packages and makes it an easier day for the Vol offense.

Now, on to the offense, which has it’s own set of serious concerns.  Jeff Driskel will be under tremendous pressure to improve his performance, and may face a quick hook if his accuracy doesn’t improve and he isn’t able to extend drives if forced into obvious passing situations.  I wonder if OC Kurt Roper will decide to go with more running plays to try and take advantage of a weak Vol front seven, including even more zone read keeps for Driskel.  Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor may be relied upon heavily to pound away and hopefully lessen the need to rely on Driskel’s passing.  The long-term problem with this strategy is that it really takes away from the Spread concepts that Roper prefers to stretch the field.  I do expect to see Treon Harris get some meaningful snaps this week, both to develop him under live game conditions, but also as the starter if Driskel continues to struggle.  The O-Line is tasked with taking charge of this game, and the WRs, while improved as a unit overall, have to make the simple catches and avoid the critical drops seen too often so far this season.  Quinton Dunbar has regressed this season to date, while no other WR has stepped up to help Demarcus Robinson, who will continue to see double-teams until others start making an impact.  Ahmad Fulwood and Latroy Pittman need to play better or go sit on the bench.  Andre Debose apparently can’t be relied upon to run routes consistently or catch the ball with regularity, but is still being underutilized on sweeps to stretch the defense horizontally.  There is one area that could be exploited, and that is using the RBs more in the passing game, which potentially could help Driskel relax while actually doing some damage to Tennessee.  Jones is a very good receiver, and even Taylor and Valdez Showers have shown they can be effective.

I’m sure it’s been a very tough week for the entire team and staff to listen to all the negativity.  Will the coaches rein everything in and go conservative, or let it rip and hopefully see the players not play too tight and actually have some fun?  Here’s hoping that the players find their way and respond to a very tough mental challenge.  A loss to the Inbreds would really turn up the heat on Will Muschamp and possibly expedite Jeremy Foley’s “evaluation” of his coaching.

 

 

Prediction – Florida 27      Tennessee 23

 

 

 

 

 

Alabama Review

1 step forward……2 steps back

What a strange (and ultimately disappointing) game.  Tied in the 3rd quarter due to a Gator team that was more opportunistic than good, the outcome never really seemed to be in doubt.

Might as well get the negatives out of the way first, because they were so glaring.  The secondary play, especially the coverage (or lack of) by the safeties, is inexcusable.  Inexperience is one thing, but the blown assignments and poor discipline are shocking at this level of competition.  Will Muschamp and Travaris Robinson are great secondary coaches that have recruited and developed a ton of quality players that have succeeded in the SEC and NFL.  But the performance the past 2 games is unacceptable, and has to be corrected – now.  Perhaps simplifying the schemes and playing more zone coverage is a temporary solution (even though I’m sure Muschamp and Robinson would hate to do it).  Keanu Neal is a great physical talent, and has already shown big-play capability, but jumping the simplest of QB or WR head fakes doesn’t cut it at this level – he has to play smarter.  Jabari Gorman simply looks too slow.  Marcus Maye has caused a few turnovers, but really hasn’t shown improvement in coverage yet from last season.  The coaches have to find a way to stop the bleeding and coach these guys up.  At CB, Brian Poole isn’t a cover guy – he’s a good rotation player, but doesn’t seem to possess the quickness needed when forced into man coverage.  VH3 also had some bad moments, but a stud WR like Amari Cooper will make some plays every game.  I’m more concerned with his Achilles strain, and that the staff kept putting him back in the game late – he’s too valuable to be physically abused that way.

It may be a good idea for either DJ Durkin or Robinson to move into the coach’s booth to better see the field, and perhaps help get the secondary lined up more quickly and properly.  Something has to be done to help these young guys get it together.

Now, for the QB play – or lack thereof.  Jeff Driskel actually had decent protection and the occasional running game to allow him time to make reads in the passing game and also execute the zone read.  But it didn’t happen……again.  He is simply too inaccurate with his throws, and made some mistakes in the running game, including his terrible handoff to Matt Jones which killed a scoring opportunity after a Bama turnover in the 2nd quarter.  His best 2 plays were his TD pass to Valdez Showers to tie the game at 7 in the 1st quarter, then his run on the QB draw to tie the game again at 21 early in the 3rd quarter.  But simply too little, and too infrequent.  There doesn’t seem to be any adjustment during the play that he can make – it’s the first read or something bad happens.

The offense never established any consistency, mainly due to the bad performance by Driskel.  The O-Line actually looked decent, establishing some running lanes usually and giving Driskel a pocket and time to throw.  Sadly, he squandered their play with an erratic throwing day that wasted some quality scoring opportunities that could have made this a 4th quarter game.  Yes, there were some egregious drops by Andre Debose and Quinton Dunbar (again), but still there were far too many overthrows and slow reads that missed some open receivers that could have extended drives.  The fact that this is Driskel’s 3rd OC in 4 years does not excuse continued poor throwing and reads.  Is it time to give Treon Harris a real shot at significant playing time?  Perhaps – at a minimum he needs to get 3-4 series starting at Tennessee.  The Gators have an off week in which to come to grips with the QB play and give Harris reps with the first team in practice.  Matt Jones ran hard, and the fumble on the exchange from Driskel was the QB’s fault, putting the ball on Jones’ hip.  When Driskel starts making mistakes in the running game, it’s painfully obvious he is not playing relaxed and with confidence.

The defense again had multiple busts in coverage, allowing Bama to complete some ridiculously easy long TD throws, and never really rising up on 3rd down to get off the field.  Florida allowed a team record-high 645 yards – that cannot happen to a Head Coach that hangs his hat on tough defense and great secondary play.  Muschamp and Robinson have 2 weeks to simplify things and find 2 safeties that will not overpursue and actually keep WRs in front of them.  The run defense held up well until the last 20 minutes, when they were gassed and Bama could rotate their stable or big RBs and control the game.

I do want to point out what could have been the real backbreaker of the entire game, and I point the finger squarely at the defensive staff. In the 3rd quarter, with a 3rd and 23 play, it was painfully obvious that a screen play was likely to be dialed up by Bama.  Sure enough, they called it, and Derrick Henry was allowed to run almost untouched to the 3-yard line, leading to the go-ahead score.  That cannot happen with the quality of this staff – and it shouldn’t happen again this season.

Despite the obvious bad plays, there are some things I saw that were encouraging. The O-Line play, even with the loss of Trenton Brown, was adequate.  The D-Line wasn’t pushed around until they tired late.  Kyle Christy seems to have rediscovered his punting touch of 2012.  The kick coverage was very good, and even Austin Hardin made some solid, deep kickoffs.

Wow – there is a LOT to work on.  The timing of this off-week is great for the staff and players to go back to basics, and also to seriously evaluate the play at key positions and possibly put in some new guys and see if they can spark the offense and defense.  The howling from the anti-Muschamp “fans” has started anew, which doesn’t help anything right now – the players, coaches, or recruiting efforts.  I know my criticisms this week are pretty pointed, but I’m not immediately giving up on 2014 just yet.  October is a huge month for this year and possibly the future of the program.  All 3 games are winnable, starting with the biggest game of the season (as I stated in my season preview) at Tennessee.  It’s a tough task to try and get things back on track, with all of the pressure on the staff and players.  Somehow Muschamp has to look inward and do what’s best for the team and it’s chances for success going forward, and that starts with some personnel decisions.

See you next week with my preview of the Tennessee game.  Go Gators!

 

 

Kentucky Review / Alabama Preview

Whew!  What could have been a comfortable win turned in a death struggle at the Swamp, with potentially the season and Will Muschamp’s future hanging in the balance.  While much is being made of the improvement of the Wildcats, not enough credit is being given to the Gators for not throwing in the towel like they likely would have last season, and to an offense that actually is showing signs of becoming SEC-level as the season progresses.

The youth and inexperience of the secondary showed it’s ugly side, as total breakdowns led to 2 long TD passes, allowing the Mildcats to stay in the game and give them hope for the upset.  Talk about fighting through your own mistakes – dropped interceptions, crazy penalties (the facemask in the 2nd OT period), and missed tackles almost lost this game.  And yet, the defense rose up in overtime, fought through the fatigue, and really showed mental toughness.  Despite allowing 300+ passing yards mostly due to 6 pass plays totaling 173 yards, the run defense really made Kentucky one-dimensional most of the night.  The D-Line played well, but only Dante Fowler provided consistent pressure on the QB – other DL have to improve in this area against the improved quality of opposition to come.  The linebackers has a solid game led by Tank Morrison’s 10 tackles, but weren’t challenged by the UK offense as they will be later, so the jury is still out.  It was the secondary that unfortunately received the most attention – both good and bad.  The CBs opposite Vernon Hargreaves had some struggles, and the new safeties suffered from some completely busted coverages.  At least the secondary recovered with 3 interceptions led by Keanu Neal’s 2, a pleasant change from last season.  Still, there is a lot of work to be done on the pass defense.

About the Gator offense.  Yes, the offense, which rolled up over 500 yards, featured a RB (Matt Jones) who rumbled for 159 yards, and featured an emerging star in WR Demarcus Robinson, who tied the Florida reception record of 15 catches (shared by Carlos Alvarez), had 215 receiving yards, and 2 TDs – a monster game.  Yet despite the gaudy stats, there is a lot of work still to do and areas to clean up.  Jeff Driskel looked tentative keeping the ball on the zone read all night, which cost the offense the chance to extend some drives.  Of larger concern is that he is still slow in getting rid of the ball to an open receiver occasionally, and still struggles picking up blitz packages.  He did show maturity on the play of the game – his TD pass to Robinson on 4th down in the 1st OT.  Perhaps the fact that this is the 3rd offense he’s had to learn in 4 years accounts for some issues, but his reluctance to run is still surprising unless he is under orders from the staff to protect himself and not force 2 true freshmen to take over – just like in 2011 when he was one of those freshmen (along with the departed Jacoby Brissett).  The O-Line was able to pound the inside running game when needed against a smaller Mildcat D-Line, and got a lot of work against pressure and blitzes as Kentucky came after Driskel early and often.  There are still issues with the guard play, especially in pass-protection against blitz packages.

Now it’s on to Alabama, which will be a huge road test and a very tough environment in which to pull off an upset.  While many of these Gators have big game experience from 2012, there are just as many newcomers who are contributors in 2014 that haven’t been in this environment before.

The Crimson Tide has lost a lot of quality personnel the past 2 seasons, and while still very talented, is not the same juggernaut as it was from 2008-2012.  Bama is breaking in 2 new QBs of their own, and it will be crucial to the Gators’ chances to see if they can rattle and confuse either Blake Sims or Jacob Coker (who transferred from F$U).  Make no mistake – the arrival of the biggest tool in football in Lame Kiffen won’t change Nick Satan’s ultimate preference of pounding the rock with a power running game, featuring the best RB rotation in the country.  TJ Yeldon, Derrick Henry, and Kenyon Drake make for a great group, even in a conference full of outstanding RBs.  Bama does have the luxury of also having an outstanding WR in Amari Cooper and a stud TE in OJ Howard to provide balance to the offense and not allow opponents to load up against the run……so far.  Sadly, the Gator front seven had not shown it can stand strong against a power running game since 2012, and this likely will tell the tale of this game.  If the Gators had the secondary of the previous 2 seasons, it could roll the dice and crowd the LOS – but with the mistakes shown last week, I don’t see this as a viable option unless the Gator staff decides to go down swinging and let the young guys try and survive on their own against the pass.  I expect to see more of the experienced Brian Poole at both CB and defending the slot.  Of larger concern is the coverage of the safeties, who were exposed last week.  Neal showed some flashes of becoming an excellent player in the future, but he, Jabari Gorman, and Marcus Maye have to improve in coverage – and quickly.  They have 2 great secondary coaches in Travaris Robinson and Will Muschamp to coach them up and clean up mistakes, but it takes time.

The Tide defense started showing cracks last season, and, while still very good at times. was overrated.  This year, West Virginia exposed even more weaknesses against both the run and pass, despite the perception that it’s a Nick Satan defense and that they can’t be beat – not true by a long shot.  The only way this can happen Saturday, though, is for the Florida O-Line to somehow find it’s footing and play better than it has in almost 2 seasons.  The play at the tackle positions and at center has been solid, but the guard play has left a lot to be desired.  Blitz pickups are a weakness, and Driskel hasn’t shown he can make adjustments well enough on his own to offset them yet.  That being said, I’m sure there are a lot of new looks and some wrinkles in the base sets that OC Kurt Roper has yet to reveal.  One area that has to be used in the passing game is the middle of the field and down the seams.  The loss of TE Jake McGee really hurts here, and someone will have to step into this role.  Quinton Dunbar and Robinson have the size to make tough catches, and TEs Clay Burton and Tevin Westbrook have to elevate their play in this game.  At least the performance of Jones will make the Tide defense pay attention to the running game – actually showing some balance in the offensive attack for the first time in years has to make the job of the offense easier.

I believe that Florida has enough talent to stay with Alabama, but can they sustain a high level of play for 4 quarters in a hostile environment?  My feeling is that the weakness of the guard play on offense and the inexperience in the defensive secondary will be too much to overcome right now, but I really hope for a competitive effort, and perhaps a few surprises on offense that could make the game interesting well into the second half.  This game can be a huge building block going into the bye week, heading into the most important part of the schedule with Tennessee, LSU, Missouri, and Georgia coming up.

Prediction:  Alabama 34      Florida 17

 

Eastern Michigan Review / Kentucky Preview

As expected, it was a beatdown from start to finish as the Gators finally were able to play a game, and took out their frustrations on hapless EMU.  I’m sure it was cathartic in some ways for the players, coaches, and fans to see a new product on the field and start to bury the memories of 2013.

The new offense of Kurt Roper was on display, and compared to the Brent Pease disaster it looked like Steve Spurrier vs. Lynn Amedee (for you Gator fans going back to the late 1980s – it wasn’t called ‘The Amedeeville Horror for nothing).  Lots of quick throws, mostly horizontal routes to spread the field, but enough deep shots to keep the secondary honest and not have to watch 9 defenders crowding the box anymore.  Jeff Driskel looked OK in his first action in almost a year, hitting more than 10 different receivers.  Yes, the Gators have WRs, and they have to love the fact that they can finally show off some of their skills.  Quinton Dunbar still seems to be Driskel’s go-to guy, but Demarcus Robinson flashed some of the big-play ability that was expected when he signed with Florida.  Kelvin Taylor and Matt Jones had enough touches in the running game to make some big plays, and it looks like there’s finally an OC that will get Jones involved in the passing game, to show off his receiving ability and also give the defense another option to worry about.  Driskel still stares down his primary receiver occasionally, and that’s going bite him in the ass against better opponents down the road unless he improves.

The O-Line looked better, but there were still too many times Driskel was pressured, especially troubling against an outmanned opponent.  The poor OL recruiting of the past 3 years is evident.  Chaz Green looked good in his return from season-ending shoulder surgery that wiped out all of 2013.  He will be needed in the Tackle rotation more than ever, as DJ Humphries did not look especially impressive and is hurt (again), this time with a high ankle sprain.  The Guard rotation did not impress.  Trip Thurman simply isn’t a SEC-caliber player, and Tyler Moore looked tentative coming back from a bad elbow injury that ended his season early last year.  Max Garcia did a nice job at Center – the Gators are very fortunate he transferred into the program last year.  It looks like young guys like tackles David Sharpe and Rod Johnson will get a lot of snaps early, and while it may cause some offensive struggles early this year, it will pay dividends in the future.  The ability level of future OL recruits simply has to improve.

The defense never was challenged, and the coaching staff was able to play nearly the entire roster.  A lot of younger players were able to get  a lot of action, and the future bodes well for the Gator defense.  Gerald Willis, Caleb Brantley, and Joey Ivie add a lot to a D-Line anchored by Dante Fowler, Jonathan Bullard, and Leon Orr.  Quincy Wilson, Keanu Neal, and Duke Dawson all made plays in the secondary, including Dawson’s pick six.  They will be relied upon all season, as opponents will rarely challenge Vernon Hargreaves.  Not a lot more to say here, as EMU was completely outmatched.

The SEC slate begins this week with the Kentucky Wildcats coming to the Swamp trying to end a 27-game losing streak to Florida.  Mike Stoops thinks he is raising the profile of a weak program with supposedly better recruiting.  The Mildcats are talking proud about their new offense, and also looking to last year’s Gator meltdown against Vanderbilt for hope.  Well, they are gonna get a reality check when they see the Gator defense unleashed Saturday night.  Kentucky has a new QB in Patrick Towles, who is a vast improvement over recent offerings, and their scheme is much more wide-open then previous seasons, featuring more spread concepts.  However, unless they unveil a rushing attack led by Nebraska transfer Braylon Heard and Towles that exploits Florida’s weakness against a power running game, they will realize quickly that the Gator pass rush and secondary play are superior.

I’m not sure if Roper will revel many (if any) new wrinkles yet on offense, as Florida should be able to move the ball with success running the base offense.  I am focusing on improvement across the board after the first game, especially by the O-Line.  This unit has to get it’s act together, as the schedule will toughen quickly.  I think the running game will be featured more, as the EMU game was little more than glorified scrimmage that allowed a lot of work on the passing game.  It’s rare that an unbalanced offense has any sustained success in the SEC, and Muschamp knows this.  The defense needs to continue to develop quality depth by rotating in the younger players, and pressure Towles early and often to disrupt his rhythm.  If he tries to run the ball 20+ times like last week, I don’t think he’ll make it through the entire game.

The loss of the Idaho game due to weather really hurt the offense, and they have to accelerate their development this week with a very tough road trip to Alabama coming up next.

Prediction:  Florida 31      Kentucky 14