The preliminaries are over, and sh*t is about to get real starting Saturday night at Auburn. Despite two easy wins, Gator Nation and the rest of the country are waiting to see if Florida is really on a better trajectory under Jon Sumrall. It may be too soon to tell no matter the outcome, but perception is reality – moreso now than ever.
Auburn’s offense is led by QB Byrum Brown, who transferred from USF to the Plains to follow head coach Alex Golesh. Golesh brought in a total 13 players from USF – 11 on offense – with Brown and leading WR Keshaun Singleton being the most important. The Tigers have incorporated the same fast-tempo USF offense, and Florida’s defense must be alert and ready. Brown is more a running threat than a passing one, and DC Brad White has to know this and have his unit ready for designed runs and scramble plays. Fortunately, the Gators have already experienced a similar offense against FAU, and many of the current defenders played USF in the Swamp last season, so they do have familiarity with the scheme and pace. Brown is essentially a one-trick pony – get him off his first read, and he’ll start to scramble and run. It’s incumbent on the front seven to get some pressure on Brown and force him into making reads and increasing the chances for a turnover. Auburn has some decent RBs in Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson, but neither is a breakaway threat. In fact, Brown leads the team in carries, and Florida should be ready to spy him to prevent him extending drives. Auburn’s WR corps isdecent, but lacks gamebreakers. Singleton is by far brown’s favorite receiver, and the defense should mark him closely. Florida’s biggest edge might be against the Tiger O-line. It has 5 new starters made up of mostly transfers, and had some serious struggles in their first game against Baylor. Florida has to be able to disrupt the blocking schemes and cause some havoc, or else it may be a long night.
Florida’s offense has not been tested yet, and Auburn has a strong front seven led by a solid LB corps featuring leading tackler Elijah Melendez. I am sure that DC DJ Durkin will be heating up QB Aaron Philo and the O-line all game. That, plus the crowd noise, makes this a tough challenge and a stark contrast to the first 2 games. Philo must be smart, make quick and decisive reads and attack the Tiger secondary, which showed some weakness against Baylor. He has all the weapons he needs in Jaden Baugh, VB3, and Dallas Wilson, but can the O-line give him the time to make the right reads and plays? Auburn will be focused on challenging the LOS and stopping Baugh, so there will be opportunities for explosive plays in the passing game. Florida has not thrown much to the running backs so far, but they are capable receivers and could be a way to offset pressure on Philo and to generate some big plays. I am confident in OC Brad Faulkner and OC Coach Phil Trautwein to devise a winning game plan, but I’m not sure they have the horses on the O-line to execute it. Faulkner will undoubtedly have plenty of formations and plays he hasn’t revealed on film the first two games. That’s why they play the games, and we’ll see soon enough.
Auburn’s special teams are solid with PK Alex McPherson and Rayshawn Pleasant on kickoff returns. However, Florida comes in with a decided advantage in kicking experience with PK Patrick Durkin and P Alec Clark, and has the current co-SEC special teams player of the week in VB3 returning punts. I feel good about this matchup, and in a close game with so many unknowns on both sides, this could be the difference in the outcome.
Auburn is a tough place to play and weird things happen to opponents there – many times due to extremely shady officiating – both on the field and in the replay booth. Their fan base has been suffering for much of the past decade and is in a similar place as Florida’s – desperately hoping for a turnaround of fortune and some meaningful success. Two similar teams, two new head coaches in their first big matchup at their new school, and the result could be a massive boost for the winner and an equally large setback for the loser for the rest of this season. Any momentum that can be gained during the game will be especially big for two teams looking to turn their fortunes around and coming in with fragile psyches. It will be a wild atmosphere on the Plains, and we’ll see quickly if Sumrall and his staff have the Gators focused and ready. I picked Florida to win in my season preview and I’ll stick with that pick, but I expect a tough game that could go either way.
Prediction:
Florida 23
Auburn 20