The Gators took care of business with a 45-0 plucking of the SkyHawks in the home opener.  This was a mismatch from the start, as the defense completely shut down the UTM attack, while the offense was nothing more than workmanlike.  Plenty of young players were able to see extended action, as the coaching staff was able to clear the bench starting in the second half.  The offense is still struggling to establish the running game – the right side of the O-line is still a weakness right now, and unless this improves starting this week with the SEC schedule, it will cost the team in the big games coming up.  The offense ended the night with over 200 yards rushing, but that was deceiving, as many of those yards came after UTM was worn down and backups were playing.  Once again the pass blocking was solid, allowing Franks to complete 25 of 27 passes, including 2 long TDs to Jefferson and Cleveland.  The game plan was pretty vanilla with no disguises put on film for Kentucky to study.  The defense controlled the LOS all night, only allowing a few long runs and one pass well after the game was settled and backups littered the field.

Unfortunately, the night didn’t go as well as planned, as both CJ Henderson and Kedarious Toney were injured in the 2nd quarter and never returned.  It appears Toney will be out with a shoulder injury until at least the Auburn game, while CJH may miss this week and possibly the next with an ankle sprain.  It’s the one thing I always hope doesn’t happen against these overmatched opponents – injuries to key players.

It’s on the Bluegrass State for the SEC opener against the Wildcats.  Speaking of injuries, Kentucky received some bad news with the loss of starting QB Terry Wilson to a knee injury for the rest of 2019, so backup transfer Sawyer Smith gets thrown into the fire against a formidable Gator defense and pass rush.  Head Coach Mark Stoops is saying that the offense really won’t change that much, but we’ll see.  I expect the Wildcats to try and shorten the game by grinding out first downs with the running game featuring Kavosley Smoke and Asim Rose to keep the score close and try to steal a win late.  If Florida can win first down, it will be a long night for Smith and their passing game, as the Gators lead the nation in sacks with 15 and have a host of pass rushers ready to deliver some pain.  Smith is not the athlete nor runner that Wilson was, and that will hurt when plays start to break down.  Brad Stewart returns from suspension this week and will be a welcome upgrade at safety.  DC Todd Grantham should have some exotic packages dialed up for the new starting QB to apply constant pressure and confuse him with new looks.  It will be interesting to see how aggressive he is calling the defense – does he come after the new QB early and often, or force him to make reads?  The defense was been susceptible to screens and draws, and It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Kentucky use some of these.

On offense, I hope that Mullen isn’t too stubborn to go to the passing game early, especially if the running game continues to struggle.  The Wildcats have a NG and DT each over 350 lbs., so perhaps running some misdirection and counters to get those big guys moving the wrong way could help.  The deep passing game has really come along, and it may be decisive again this week.  A few big plays to make some scoring drives easier could go a long way towards a win.  I expect some throws to Perine to slow the pass rush, while Jacob Copeland gets the chance to fill in for Toney and show why he was one of the most highly-recruited athletes in the 2018 class.

The Gators should have no problem being highly motivated for this game, as they’ve had to listen for an entire year how they blew the 31-game winning streak in the series last year, at the Swamp, and how they were physically manhandled at the LOS. 

This is a huge game for the Gators – take advantage of Kentucky’s injury problems and win the SEC opener before coming home for Tennessee.  It’s time to finally start playing closer to expectations – especially on offense – and start building to a peak before the big games in October.

Prediction:

Florida     27

Kentucky 17

Florida’s reward for a bounce-back 2018 regular season is it’s 3rd matchup in it’s past 38 games with Michigan – this time in the Peach Bowl at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

The teams are coming off of dramatically different season-ending games.  While the Gators crushed F$U to end a painful 5-game losing streak, Michigan was embarrassed by Ohio $t. in a 62-39 beat down that made it 14 out of 15 losses against their bitter rival.

Florida’s offense will be challenged by a strong Wolverine front seven – even with the decision by DT Rashan Gary to forgo the game to prep for the NFL Draft. DE Chase Winovich and LB Devin Bush are all-Big 10/11/12/ whatever players.  The running game has carried the Gators all season, but Mullen will have to be ready to mix things up if Michigan is stopping the run. Where some teams – especially the Black eyes – have exposed the Wolverines is in the secondary.  If Florida can get their play makers into space they can do some damage.  This game can be a showcase for LT Martez Ivey and RB Jordan Scarlett to exhibit their abilities against a legit front seven.  The O-line has to stand it’s ground and give Franks time to find his WRs – if they do, there are some big plays to be had.  I’m hoping that Grimes and Jefferson can build on their breakout game against F$U, while Toney has the kind of quickness and speed that O$U used to exploit Michigan’s defense.

Michigan’s offense is led by QB Shea Patterson, who transferred in from Ole Miss prior to the 2018 season and seriously upgraded the play at that position.  While his new team has reined in some of his running, he is still a threat to scramble and make big plays.  He also improved his passing dramatically this year, with a 21-5 TD-Int ratio.  His main targets are WRs Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nico Collins and TE Zack Gentry.  DPJ and Collins arebig, physical targets that will be a challenge for the Gator DBs.  The Wolverines historically feature the TE, a position that has exploited poor coverage by the Gator LBs all season.  Still, Michigan relies first onit’s running game, led this year by Karan Higdon, who has averaged just under 100 yards per game.  It’s incumbent on the defense to win 1st down in order to force the Wolverines into more difficult down-and-distance plays.  If Michigan is winning the LOS this will be a long afternoon for the Gator defense, and likely lead to a loss.

As with almost any bowl game – especially a non-playoff game – it virtually impossible to predict the mindset of the players coming in.  There are so many variables – guys not playing to prepare for the NFL Draft, grades, baby mommas, guys that do play that will get drafted but try not to get injured, agents/runners sniffing around draft-eligible players, family/posses with their hands out, etc.  Many of the bowl games now are more like exhibitions for the following season, with the main reward being the additional practices to develop younger and inexperienced players.  

I feel that this game is more important to the entire Florida football program because of it’s recent transition in AD, coaching staff, and attitude. That may not necessarily translate into a win, but I believe Coach Mullen and the players will have extra motivation to prove to the nation (and future recruits)that the prognosis for Gator football isn’t just a short rally, but long-term success.  Florida was embarrassed by Michigan in both the Citrus Bowl after the 2015 season and in their 2017 opener – both games under the Swamp Donkey.  A new message needs to be sent that things are truly different –and better – going forward.

I think that Michigan’s experience within a consistent scheme for the past 4 seasons, the desire to begin erasing the impressions from their meltdown against Ohio $t., and better talent along the OL and DL will be enough to win.  However, I also hope that once this game is over they – and the nation – realize that Florida is not the mentally and physically soft team they have enjoyed beating recently.

Prediction:  Michigan 27      Florida 20

In what could only be described as “Mr. Mullen’s Wild Ride”, Florida came back from two separate double-digit deficits to pull out a clutch win late against South Carolina.  This could have been a second consecutive disastrous home loss that would really have derailed the season, but instead the Gators get a lot of credit for digging deep and fighting back.

The defense was somnambulant for the first two Carolina possessions, allowing the Lamecocks to move easily down the field each time for touchdowns and a quick 14-0 first quarter lead.  Every position can take the blame, as the defense made Carolina QB Jake Bentley and their offense look like the Tom Brady-led Patriots.  It seems in general that home teams with noon kickoffs usually start slowly, but the Gators looked lifeless the entire quarter.  Finally, the offense awoke and put together two TD drives of their own in the second quarter to tie the game.  The right side of the O-Line gets most of the credit for opening large holes for Scarlett and Perine to run though, and this would prove to be the winning formula in the second half as well.  Franks hardly threw a pass more than a few yards downfield, instead making the safe throws.  He ran the ball better in this game than ever before, especially in short-yardage situations.  After being booed last week and early in this game, he unfortunately embarrassed himself by giving the home fans the shush gesture and screaming STFU after scoring his first rushing TD – just another example of his lack of maturity and leadership.  Then the defense relapsed, allowing Carolina a TD drive just before halftime to take a 21-14 lead.  There was no pass rush, and the LBs still looked lost in coverage and suffered from miscommunication in the 10th game of the season.

The second half started out as a repeat of the first, as the Gator offense came out slowly (again) and the defense collapsed (again) while the Lamecocks stretched their lead.  Every unit played a part – poor tackling and miscommunication by the defense, sloppy play from Franks and the O-Line, and special teams allowing a long kickoff return to set up Carolina with a short field for a score.  The offense drove to a 42-yard FG attempt, which McPherson missed.  Carolina responded with their own drive for a FG and a 24-14 lead, then later in the 3rd quarter extended to lead to 31-14 after the Gators allowed an 89-yard catch and run by Deebo Samuel to their 5-yard line.  The outlook at that point was bleak, as there was no energy from the players or fans.  Florida then had it’s most fortunate break of the season, a poorly thrown pass into coverage by Franks that was tipped and somehow came down into the hands of Hammond, who was then was stripped of the ball before hitting the ground.  The officials claimed his momentum had been stopped before the fumble, and Misschump shockingly didn’t challenge the call.  After that, the O-Line, Perine, and Scarlett dominated the rest of the game, scoring on 3 consecutive punishing drives to take the lead at 35-31.  Both RBs ran hard and broke tackles for extra yardage while punishing the Lamecock LBs and secondary.  The Gator defense finally responded, making just enough plays and finally getting some pressure on Bentley in the 4th quarter.  CJH ended the last decent threat by Carolina with a terrific interception, trailing the WR and baiting Bentley into the throw.

It was a true gut-check for the team, and to their credit they played hard and came back.  This game can be the result, even more than the LSU win, that Mullen can point to in the offseason to the returning players as proof of what he has been preaching since he took the job.  Another blowout loss at home could have killed any recruiting momentum and left the team emotionally fragile heading into the game in two weeks against Florida $tate.

It’s on to Senior Day at the Swamp, as Florida welcomes the Idaho Vandals for a glorified scrimmage before the rivalry game in Taliban City against F$U.  Don’t expect much variety in scheme from either the offense or defense – just the basic plays and looks to get by.  Expect a lot of running plays on offense, with minimal need to expose Franks to any injury possibility.  Idaho has struggled in the weak Big Sky conference, so they are completely outmanned against the Gators.  A lot of younger and/or inexperienced players should get some snaps, as the staff should be able to start pulling starters and clearing the bench in the second half.  There has been a lot of debate as to whether Emory Jones should play to get some more live game experience, but it seems Mullen is holding him back for the last 2 games against the Criminoles and the bowl game, in order to preserve his redshirt.

As always, the mantra for this kind of game is……NO INJURIES.

Prediction: Florida 59          Idaho 13