‘The Plan’, Lies, and Videotape

With deference to the great James Spader, I paraphrased the movie title, as it encapsulates the complete teardown of the Florida football program by Billy Napier.

‘The Plan’:
There is no plan. There never really was. Napier has had 42 games, and unfortunately has proven incapable of executing one – less executing the Florida brand.  It all came crashing down in the latest embarrassment at Miami.  His stubbornness/hubris/whatever you wish to call it in believing he could design an offense for 2025, let alone beyond 1965, has been laid bare.  He has broken DJ Lagway.  He’s practically broken Gator Nation.  His passing offense is beyond horrific – you almost have to try to be that bad.  The entire support ‘Army’, the alleged toxic locker room he inherited, and his vision of ‘building’ a program are all part of the Grand Illusion that duped weak leadership, including the AD and the UAA.  His ‘program’ is adrift and directionless.  The fault lies with all of them.  The only “culture” he’s built is a losing one.

Lies:
“I’m going to hire an Offensive Coordinator.”
“We’re only 10 plays from being 3-0”
“We’re going to look at the tape and get things fixed.”
“x injured player is getting close”
“This O-line is our best since we’ve been here.”
“Our WR room is dangerous.”

“DJ Lagway has had good ‘mental reps’ while not practicing” (WTF is that?!)
“I know what it takes to win.”
Multiple mind-numbing press conferences where he repeatedly states, “The ‘plan’ is sound – the players just need to execute it better”.  NO ACCOUNTABILITY FOR HIS OWN LACK OF COACHING ACUMEN, AND THE INABILITY TO SEE/ADMIT/ADDRESS HIS REPEATED FAILURES.

SPOT THE BALL!  RIGHT?!

Videotape:
– A 20-22 record
– Repeated slow starts and painfully obvious lack of preparation
– 2.7 yards per pass attempt against Miami – unacceptable

– 0-13 on 3rd down

– 141 yards of total offense, 82 of which came on the lone scoring drive in the 3rd quarter
– A passing ‘shrub’ that insults shrubs
– Failing his players with a lack of adjustments, and – more to the point – by not removing the headset and recusing himself from anything to do with calling plays
– A stunning lack of imagination that allows opponents to essentially ‘know’ what’s coming and when
– A complete and repeated lack of awareness and in-game management
– No juice or energy on the sideline
– Continued embarrassing losses

I feel so bad for players like Jaden Baugh, VB3, Jake Slaughter, Caleb Banks, Myles Graham, Aaron Chiles, and Cormani McClain……guys that are really SEC studs.  And there are maybe another 20 or so that are solid contributors.  But that’s about it.  This roster was allegedly ready to win big.  But there’s still a dearth of quality depth.  And it wouldn’t matter anyway – Rural Meyer would waste anything he was given.  He’s a black cloud over the program, and reminds me of Pigpen from the ‘Peanuts” comic strip……dirty face, with a cloud of dirt (losing) following him everywhere that NOTHING can get rid of.

And now the injuries mount.  Lagway back in a boot.  Dijon Johnson out for the year with a meniscus tear in his knee.  Brendon Bett with a knee injury that didn’t look good.  Aaron Gates with some sort of arm or shoulder injury (the staff will use the dumb ‘upper-body injury’ descriptor – they think they’re so clever).  And I’m sure we’ll get the usual “he’s getting close” from Napier about Dallas Wilson (who I would understand if he chooses to never play in this offense and possibly transfers out).

The defense played admirably for 50 minutes against the Hurricanes, until the weight of Napier’s ineptitude finally caused them to cave in.  There’s only so long you can hold up when you’re getting physically and mentally beaten down.  But let’s get real here.  It’s very possible there will be more “injuries” from here on out, as guys physically and mentally start to check out as the season circles the drain.  The players aren’t dumb.  The defensive guys will start to chirp at the offense as it continues to suck, and the locker room will fracture.  This happens all over the country in similar circumstances, and Florida is no different.

There’s nothing left to defend.  The few left in Napier Nation will continue to insult anyone critical of him, and blindly follow him off the cliff.  They will complain about the lack of positivity, scream to the heavens about how his players like him, and provide ZERO substantive rationale to keep him on as the head coach.  This behavior is the definition of “cult-like” – the followers of Jim Jones or the Branch Davidians have nothing on the Napier acolytes.  ANYONE with objectiveness and professionalism has already recognized it’s long past due to end this disastrous run.  Since Scott Stricklin, the UAA, and certain specific Trustees are ‘culturally aligned’ with Napier, they will be the last to admit defeat and allow it to continue for at least 3 more games, praying that things will change……they won’t.  Their level of desperation is unprofessional and unconscionable.  Even the game announcers recently are openly critical and dismissive of the terrible offense they are seeing.  I wish Steve Spurrier wasn’t an “Ambassador for the program” and could really say out loud what he’s thinking.

Is Billy Napier a good person?  Seems so – no personal indiscretions I’ve heard of.
Does he treat people well?  Seems that way – even when failing them professionally.  Seems like a solid family man.  His players seem to like him personally.
That’s all good.
But none of that matters compared to the (lack of) results he’s being overpaid massively to produce.  And the lack of accountability and self-awareness are not ‘good’ traits.

Am I happy to write an article like this?  ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Have I turned negative towards Napier’s coaching and the results everyone is suffering through?  ABSOLUTELY.  I’ve seen more than enough the past 42 games……actually, much earlier than that.
It’s time to move on.  It’s OK, coach.  You and your supporters just need to let it go.  You failed by any measure there is.

It’s all over but the shouting, now.  Napier should do the right thing, admit defeat, and resign to forego the ugly specter of being fired.  Give these players and coaches a better chance of making something positive out of the rest of the 2025 season.  Give Gator Nation another chance to try and reset and move on to better results going forward.  That’s an incredibly low bar at this point, so I’ll say give Gator Nation the hope of someday competing for championships again and having fun watching a winning product.

Go Gators!

Florida’s reward for 2 consecutive embarrassing losses is a trip to Miami Gardens to take on the Hurricanes.  Miami is ranked inside the Top 5 and has looked the part, already scoring 2 ranked wins over Notre Dame and – LOL – blowing out South Florida.  By the transitive property, this game shouldn’t be close, but that’s why they play the games. 

Miami’s offense is led by resurgent QB Carson Beck, who looks nothing like the lost turnover machine he became at Georgia last season.  He has quality weapons at his disposal including RB Mark Fletcher and WRs CJ Daniels and Malachi Toney.  But the engine for the offense is a quality O-line led by OTs Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola.  Head coach Mario Cristobal will never be considered an adequate game day coach, but he knows how to build and coach his O-line.  Their attack is balanced and actually utilizes the entire field – what a novel concept.  The Florida defense will be challenged at all 3 levels, and will have to be even better than it has been to date to help try and pull off the upset.  The loss of DT Caleb Banks puts more pressure on an inexperienced DT rotation that will have to force a stalemate at the LOS often enough to allow the back seven to make plays.  Somehow, someway, the defense has to give the Gator offense as many possessions as possible, just like last week……and hope for the best.  I believe the secondary can hold up and matches up well with Miami’s passing game.  If the pass rush can get pressure on Beck, he could revert back to his sloppy play of 2024.  But how long can the defense keep holding up while the offense sputters and sucks the life out of the team?  

Speaking of the offense……who knows what ingenious game plan Napier will devise this week?  Perhaps he’ll realize that the ball ain’t heavy, and feed Jaden Baugh early and often – or not.  Perhaps he’ll run more play-action with max protection and give DJ Lagway easier reads and throws – or not.  Perhaps the WR corps will finally stand up and make plays beyond VB3 – or not.  Perhaps the O-line will start playing sound football – or not.  Miami’s secondary has some weaknesses, and can be exploited by a competent game plan and passing scheme, which really hasn’t been seen in 41 games.  I’m tired of trying to predict what the attack will look like at this point.  I just have to hope beyond hope that between a stellar defensive effort and some unexpected playmaking from the offense that Florida can steal a win.  The entire offensive group needs to respond to the criticism and play angry, despite the head coach apparently being incapable of either.

For some reason ESPN/ABC has decided to feature the Gators on it’s prime time telecast again.  Maybe they are looking to pick up the “watching a car accident” crowd, as this could possibly be Napier’s last stand (sadly, I doubt it).  On paper, Florida has a decent chance, and I wouldn’t be shocked by an upset win.  But, at this point, I’d be surprised.  This rivalry goes back a long way, and it still means a lot to the older generation of fans for each team.  It will be a hostile, nasty environment Saturday night, even with a solid contingent of Florida fans in attendance.  I just hope those Gator fans aren’t leaving in the 3rd quarter.

Prediction:

Miami 34

Florida 17

In another of a long list of disastrous performances by the Gators under Billy Napier, Florida took a 20-10 loss in which the defense did enough to win, but DJ Lagway looked like a high school QB, throwing 5 interceptions and continually sabotaging any chance for a big road win at Death Valley.

Let’s get this out of the way first – Lagway was awful.  Don’t let the yards fool you – he looked uncomfortable most of the game, his mechanics – both footwork and arm angle – were terrible, and he telegraphed each interception while throwing repeatedly into double or triple coverage.  Lagway was channeling John Reaves at Auburn in 1969, when Reaves threw a NCAA-record 9 interceptions.  Lagway easily could have had 2-3 more, forcing the ball over and again into tight coverage.  He is simply not playing up to his salary, nor is he getting the tough and proper coaching he needs to improve.  Napier and Ryan O’Hara seem to coddle him and appear almost afraid to push him hard.  Honestly, If Napier had any guts, he should have sat Lagway down late in the 3rd quarter, bypassed true freshman Tramell Jones, and brought in an experienced QB with some P4 success – 5th year senior Harrison Bailey.

The running game was adequate, as Jaden Baugh was churning out some tough yards between the tackles.  Even more impressive is Baugh making himself some money in the future with his contribution to the passing game.  He was an outlet for Lagway all night, and also made some receptions downfield.  Still, he should have had 30+ touches.  He had only 10 carries as opposed to 49 pass attempts by Lagway.  The other reason the offense lost this game was an overrated O-line, which allowed pressure far too often and committed 6 holding penalties, one of which was essentially the turning point of the entire game.  Late in the 1st quarter, the Gators were pinned deep in their own territory and faced a 3rd down.  Lagway scrambled away from pressure – again – and found Baugh all alone downfield due to a busted coverage for an 87-yard TD and a 10-0 lead.  Or not……as a holding call negated the play.  A massive turnaround both on the scoreboard and in momentum.  Sloppy, undisciplined play, despite Napier touting how disciplined play would be a hallmark of this team.  The WR corps was ineffective less one downfield reception by Aidan Mizell and a few slant routes by Vernell Brown III.  All that offseason hype……and hardly anything to show for it……again.  We are well beyond the definition of insanity.

Incredibly, this game was still VERY winnable.  LSU’s offense did everything it could to give the game away, but Florida’s turnovers gutted any opportunity to take it.  Florida’s defense was competent if not spectacular, and played a sound game for the most part.  The D-line, bolstered by the return of Caleb Banks, essentially shut down the Tiger running game, and also were able to get occasional pressure on Garrett Nussmeier and force incompletions.  The DT rotation acquitted itself well – Jamari Lyons and Brendan Bett made plays and were stout at the point of attack.  Unfortunately, Banks left the game early in the 4th quarter after reinjuring his foot, and that didn’t shock me, as this was his first live action of 2025 and he likely came back early in a desperate team situation.  He’ll have surgery and could be out for a month up to the rest of the season.  It wouldn’t shock me if he decides to shut it down and prepare for the NFL Draft.  The LBs were flying around and tackling well, looking like the best LB group for years at Florida.  The only weakness was pass coverage in the intermediate zones between the hashmarks, as both the LBs and safeties struggled (again) to contain receivers there.  But you have to expect LSU’s talented receivers to make some plays against anyone.  Even so, the Tigers were struggling, the fans were nervous and starting to boo, and everything was set for a huge upset win……until it wasn’t.  Overall, LSU has some legit playmakers, and the Gators held up well in a tough environment.  Too bad the offense and QB didn’t do their part.  I will say that the Tigers look very much overrated right now, as their win at Clemson doesn’t look so impressive.  But that just makes Florida literally throwing this game away even worse.

So, another gut punch to the players and Gator Nation, and another nail in Napier’s coffin.  It really should be over for him already, but AD Scott Stricklin will seemingly have to be forced to fire him.  I mean, he and Napier are “culturally aligned”, which seems to mean more than winning games.  What’s alarming now is the apathy that is setting in even among the stalwart fans.  The damage to the brand is massive, making a return to championship-level football that much more difficult.  And now it’s on to Miami, against a team that looks better than LSU and can smell the blood in the water.  Another nationally-televised embarrassment likely on tap.  The long fall into irrelevance continues. 

So, here we are……again.  Florida is in a must-win scenario very early in a season, the team looks shaken with a head coach you simply can’t trust to manage the actual games, and all of this could be laid to bare on national television at Death Valley for all to see……again.

Any chance of stealing a win will require a MASSIVE effort from the Gator defense, as I have zero trust in the offense under Napier’s lead.  There is one small area of opportunity, as LSU has 4 new starters along it’s O-Line, and that unit has not looked cohesive yet.  IF……if the alleged strong front seven of Florida actually shows up in force – and that means DT Caleb Banks plays and has an impact – the Gators could disrupt the Tiger offense just enough to steal some extra possessions for the offense.  And we all know the Gator offense will need all the help and opportunities it can get.  QB Garrett Nussmeier has some weapons to work with in WRs Aaron Anderson and Barion Brown, and RB Caden Durham is a big play threat.  Brown, a transfer from Kentucky, is also a huge threat as a kickoff and punt returner.  Unless the Gators can win first down and force LSU into obvious passing downs, I can’t see them holding up for 4 quarters – especially trying to support a struggling offense.

Which Florida offense will show up for this one?   One that actually discovers ways to attack defenses that will not allow deep throws while leaning on a power running game?  Or the one where you never have a sense of continuity or identity, other than a painfully safe dink-and-dunk passing game that won’t score enough points nor control time of possession?  That was the formula for last season’s upset win over the Tigers, but does Napier have the capacity to find and stick with an aggressive formula for an entire game?  LSU’s D-Line has had some early issues against the run, and the (alleged) strong Florida O-Line has to establish itself and get some push.  RBs Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson need to be featured.  LSU’s back seven has looked excellent so far.  They are led by a solid LB corps that includes Harold Perkins and West Weeks, along with DBs PJ Woodland and Monsoor Delaine.  Despite this, Florida has to take shots both in the middle of the field and deep in the passing game, or else it will be another frustrating night.  All we heard in the offseason was Napier touting the speed and playmaking ability of the WRs, but he seems incapable of exploiting them……again.  The intermediate zone between the hashmarks might as well be labeled the ‘Phantom Zone’ in Napier’s scheme.

LSU remembers well the upset loss they took in Gainesville last season, and will not overlook Florida despite it coming off of an ugly loss and being unranked……again.  Brian Kelly is feeling the heat from the TIger faithful who are impatient for a big season and Playoff run, and the pressure is on.  Kudos to them for being aggressive in the portal in the offseason and addressing some major roster issues.  It ultimately may fall short, but they are swinging for the fences in 2025.  I simply don’t expect Florida to be able to win this one without a LOT of help from LSU in the form of turnovers and penalties.  It’s obvious to anyone that is paying attention that Napier is incapable of managing the offense or the clock under pressure.  The real fear is that, if this is another blowout road loss, that he and the staff start to lose the team, with the schedule only getting more difficult and a LONG way still to go in the season

Prediction:

LSU 38

Florida 13

Welp……

“Spot The Ball” my ass.  Lucy (Billy Napier) pulled the football away from Charlie Brown (Gator Nation) once again in an embarrassing 18-16 loss at The Swamp to South Florida.  The Gators – and Napier – once again looked disorganized, confused, and unprepared, and never came up with clutch plays.  So much for all the false hype – the 2025 season may already be on the precipice of a disastrous, miserable slog to the finish with nothing (well, maybe something) to look forward to at the end.

Florida’s offense did mostly what was expected in the first half.  The running game was dominating between the tackles, Jaden Baugh was rolling, and the passing game was efficient if not exciting (I’ll come back to that).  HOWEVER……penalties, poor execution, and Napier’s usual lack of feel for red zone playcalling came back to haunt the Gators.  3 trips into the red zone in the first half, and only 3 FGs to show for it.  Not finishing drives, which has been a problem since Napier became head coach, once again doomed Florida.  The passing game has been NOTHING as expected.  DJ Lagway again failed to push the ball downfield, Napier seems averse to aggressive passing schemes, and an alleged fast and talented WR corps continues to underachieve.  Vernell Brown III once again was the leading receiver – good for him, but bad for the rest of the group, having a true freshman eclipse them.  Where is the (alleged) explosiveness of J Michael Sturdivant, Tre Wilson, and Aidan Mizell?  And Napier once again went into a shell in a close game, regressing back to a dink-and-dunk passing attack.  But even worse, he went away from the physical inside running game that controlled the first half, calling more stretch plays that allowed the undersized USF defense to run to the ball and make plays.  Lagway continues to struggle physically and mentally.  It’s obvious he’s still favoring his shoulder and calf somewhat, but even more alarming is not being able to exploit the intermediate zones.  The Bulls – and every future opponent – played 2 high safeties all game and dared Lagway and Napier to beat them……and they couldn’t.  Even when they went with a 1-high safety look and stuffed the box, Napier had no answer.  Finally, the last offensive possession by the Gators was pure Rural Meyer.  Instead of bleeding USF out of their last 2 timeouts and pinning them deep in their own territory with little time left, he called a pass on BOTH first down AND third down, both resulting in incompletions stopping the clock.  Then, even when he could have called his own time outs to preserve some time for a last chance to come back after the Bulls took the lead, he instead let USF run the clock down to the end—true incompetence, and, sadly, all too predictable. 

I’m not letting the Florida defense off the hook, either.  Yes, they allowed only 18 points, but committed some crucial penalties (really – another spitting incident allowing a go-ahead drive?!), missed way too many tackles in the backfield, and somehow made another mobile QB in Byrum Brown look like a world-beater.  There were numerous opportunities to end USF drives quickly and to build momentum, but the Gators never could take real control of the game.  You could almost see the fire dying in the defenders’ eyes, as their effort waned late in the game.  The continued absence of DT Caleb Banks is a real issue, and his alleged “minor” foot injury now appears to be another coach-speak lingering injury of more seriousness than previously shared by the staff.  The lack of pressure from the Edge players is becoming a real concern as well.  Things are about to get very real the next 4 games, and there are more questions than answers (again) right now.

It’s on to LSU, who looked very good in their opening win at Clemson, and will be ready to eat some Gator meat in a huge revenge game.  As of now, it appears the Tigers have actually addressed their needs in the offseason – unlike Florida – and look improved and ready for a big season.  I’ll need a little time to process this latest disaster and what it means going forward.  Once again, Florida is already in desperation mode early in a season, and it’s beyond tiresome at this point.  It’s a recurring theme, and is reflecting the definition of insanity.

Hello lucky readers!  Since I’ll be in Scotland with Mrs. Visor the first week of September, it’s BOGO time – 2 game reviews in the same week.

After going through the motions in essentially a preseason game last week, Florida steps up in competition Saturday against South Florida.  As usual in an in-state matchup, the underdog Bulls will be hungry to “shock the world”, and I expect to see everything from their playbook and a chippy game from start to finish.  I’ll give USF credit – their schedule is legit to begin the season, with home games against Boise St. and Miami sandwiched around their visit to Gainesville.  Alex Golesh has done a very good job in rebuilding the mess he inherited in 2023, finishing with a 7-6 record each of his first two seasons.

USF returns two experienced players at QB in Byrum Brown, who started in 2024 before missing the last half of the season with an injury, and Bryce Archie, who replaced Brown and surprised with his effective play.  Both are mobile, and led a rushing attack that averaged over 200 yards per game.  The passing attack was inefficient and often ineffective, however, and has to improve significantly to compete against Top 40 opponents.  USF lost it’s top 3 RBs and top 2 WRs in terms of production, and have had to go the portal route to try and reload at those positions.  Keshaun Singleton is by far the leading returning WR, and has big-play potential and must be defended closely.  They do have an experienced O-line returning, which should help with all of the roster turnover at the skill positions.  One thing to watch is how their hyper-speed tempo is countered by Florida’s defense.  Few chances for substitutions will be available, so communication between the Gator defenders is a must.  DC Ron Roberts will have to be mindful of his personnel packages for each separate USF possession.  This will be a good barometer of Florida’s speed on defense, and also their fitness against a fast team in humid conditions.

The Bulls defense struggled in 2024.  While playing decently against the run, they were poor against the pass, and overaggression led to a multitude of big plays allowed all season.  They do have many starters returning and 12 incoming transfers that are juniors and seniors, so the hope is more experience leads to less explosive plays allowed.  Mac Harris and Rico Watson III are excellent LBs, and will be looked to for leadership.  I expect Florida to rely (as usual) on it’s running game first, both to control time of possession and keep it’s defense fresh, as well as in preparation for the 4 tough games to follow.  Yes, the hope is DJ Lagway will be OK to play and actually get some live reps with his WR corps.  Given USF’s tendency for aggressiveness on defense, big plays could come easily.  Ultimately, this game is about surviving in a healthy state, getting a (hopefully) comfortable win, and then going into an incredibly challenging stretch of opponents.

I can easily see this game being close into the 3rd quarter, as USF will be hyped for this game.  But I expect Florida’s superior talent and depth to take over in the second half, and the Gators to pull away for the victory.

Prediction:

Florida 38

USF 13

I’ll be honest – I had no idea LIU had a football program, let alone was doing the unthinkable and scheduling some Division 1-A opponents.  I was shocked to discover they have been playing football since 1927, and are currently playing in the tiny Northeast Conference in Division 1-AA.  Yes, it will be a massive payday for their athletic dept., but this matchup will be as uninteresting and non-competitive as you could imagine.

The Sharks obviously lack the talent and depth to compete at this level, and struggled last season even within their conference.  Their historical record is actually decent at over 60% wins, but they were a bad team last season, and are severely outmatched against the Gators.  I wouldn’t even call this an exhibition game – it will be a glorified scrimmage for Florida.  I don’t expect anything but the most basic of schemes on offense and defense.  This game hopefully allows DJ Lagway to knock off some of the rust from an inactive offseason, and lets the team work on fundamentals and timing.  The Gator staff should be able to start emptying out the bench in the 3rd quarter.  Not much good can come from this game other than serve as a walk-through for the freshmen and other inexperienced players.  

Florida suffered injuries during Fall practice to key players such as WRs Tre Wilson and Dallas Wilson, DE LJ McCray, and DT Caleb Banks.  None of them will be needed in this game, and I’d be surprised to see any of them dressed out.  As always, the mantra for a game like this is……NO INJURIES.

Prediction:

Florida 63

LIU 3

“It’s put up or shut up time”.  That seems to be the consensus of Gator Nation heading into this season.  Billy Napier has a roster of his players, a coaching staff comprised of people he trusts, and the most talent and depth entering a season during his tenure.  Florida ended 2024 with four consecutive wins and positive momentum entering the offseason for the first time since 2019.  It took the desperation of a 4-5 record, the near-mutiny of the defensive players, and the dreaded “vote of confidence” from the AD, to finally abort the Austin Armstrong Error of defense and force Napier to put an adult in charge (Ron Roberts).  The unfortunate season-ending injury to QB Graham Mertz made DJ Lagway the starter by default, and that in turn injected some life and big-play capability into the offense……finally.  It’s a shame it takes near catastrophic results to get Napier to finally make necessary changes, but that seems to be his modus operandi – to a fault.  All that being said, the changes did take place, and the Gators benefitted markedly.  The last two wins of 2024 came against the worst F$U team since 1973 and a bowl opponent in Tulane that was gutted by portal defections, but the wins over LSU and Ole Miss were legit. 

The offseason brought more coaching turmoil, as there was one significant loss within the coaching staff – secondary coach Will Harris having a falling out with Napier and moving on to Miami.  That did not go over well with some inside and outside the program.  That, along with Armstrong’s welcomed departure, resulted in new hires Vinnie Sunseri, Robert Bala, and Deron Wilson, who all have much to prove.  Florida’s roster also suffered some important losses due to graduation or portal departures.  On defense, DBs Jason Marshall and Trikweze Bridges, DT Cam Jackson, Edge rushers Jack Pyburn and TJ Searcy, and LB Shemar James all either started or were key rotation pieces, and will be missed.  On offense, Mertz, RB Montrell Johnson, WRs Chimere Dike and Elijhah Badger, and OT Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson were solid starters and leave behind a lot of production to replace.  The recruiting class was solid, despite Florida’s current decision to place most of it’s financial resources towards retention of personnel ahead of going after even a handful of elite portal players – we shall see if that proves to be successful.

Napier now has to face the burden of expectations for Florida Football and an impatient fan base that’s grown weary of mediocrity and self-inflicted losses due to poor coaching.  There are no more excuses left for his supporters – it’s time to prove he’s capable of winning big games against an always-tough SEC schedule and elevate the program back to contending for the SEC Championship and/or a Playoff appearance.  That, or time to move on to a new regime.  I’m not confident in his ability to handle the pressure from outside or improving his in-game decision-making and injecting some urgency and pace into his offense.  We’re about to find out if he’s self-aware and flexible enough to do so.

Offense

2024 was another mixed bag of successes and failures for the Gator offense.  The start of the season was brutal, with embarrassing home losses to Miami and Texas A&M where Napier’s scheme was exposed – again – as too simple and easy to diagnose.  Even the opposing defensive coordinators said as much, adding fuel to the raging fire of criticism.  Mertz was efficient, but not effective.  Again, there were few deep shots to loosen the coverage, and opponents loaded the box to slow the running game.  It took the Mertz injury and the big-play ability of Lagway to finally lend balance to the attack, and the results after were more like an offense could and should look like in the 21st century.  Napier again is saying he’s the main playcaller, with (allegedly) more help from Russ Callaway, but will the scheme fully utilize the skill player’s abilities or not?  Any real chance for success in 2025 will rely on it.

The QB position is solely in possession of Lagway.  He proved in the last half of 2024 that he was capable of leading the offense against SEC competition, and could threaten a defense at all 3 levels.  This despite a troubling hamstring injury suffered against Georgia.  He showed toughness and poise while playing through it, and the team responded.  That being said……the news on the injury front for Lagway leads to more disclaimers than you’ll read at the bottom of a prescription drug advertisement going into the start of Fall practice and the regular season.  He did not throw throughout Spring practice, was limited over the summer trying to rehab, and now is hobbled by a “calf strain”.  While his shoulder seems to be recovering, he is a capable runner, and if he’s limited by the calf injury for a while this will hurt his effectiveness.  Lagway is a great talent, but he still needs to show improvement in his reads and also in his accuracy – especially in the intermediate zone.  The lack of reps with his WRs likely means getting timing down in live action the first 2 games of the season – far from the best scenario.  Florida did well in acquiring Harrison Bailey through the portal as QB2.  He’s a 6th-year senior, with starting experience at both Tennessee and Louisville.  He received some excellent coaching from Jeff Brohm while playing for the Cardinals.  He has some mobility and a good arm, both of which he showed in Louisville’s bowl game and then in the Orange and Blue game, where he received extended snaps.  Aidan Warner returns as QB3, and  – respectfully – here’s hoping that he’s not needed, or else the season is toast.

The running back room is again solid, and likely one of the better units in the SEC.  Jaden Baugh grabbed the starting role in 2024 after Johnson incurred some injuries – he showed power and speed and also some pass-catching ability.  Ja’Kobi Jackson came on as a solid RB2 and proved he could closely match Baugh’s production.  Treyaun Webb was in line for RB3, but had to undergo surgery on his hamstring this fall, so he’s likely a non-contributor for most of this season.  There are some promising young players in redshirt freshman KD Daniels and true freshmen Byron Louis, Duke Clark, and Chad Gasper.  The young players have game-breaking abilities, but of course need to show they can pick up basic pass protection and exhibit ball security in order to earn live reps.  Fortunately, coach Jabbar Juluke has proven to be an excellent recruiter and developer of his players, so look for solid production from this group.  As always, Napier’s offense will rely on the running game to lead the way by controlling the clock and protecting his QB.

The WR position is filled with talent and speed, but sorely lacking in experience and production.  Dike and Badger have moved on to the NFL, leaving huge holes to fill in the rotation.  3rd year receivers Tre Wilson (coming off a season shortened by hip surgery) and Aidan Mizell have to step up their play.  J. Michael Sturdivant is a 5th-year senior transfer from UCLA with NFL size and speed who will be an immediate starter.  There is an excellent group of young players in sophomores TJ Abrams and Tank Hawkins, along with one of the top freshman classes in the country that includes Dallas Wilson, Naeshaun Montgomery, and legacy Vernell Brown III.  Wilson is an elite player who likely works his way into the starting lineup as soon as he (hopefully) shakes off a broken bone in his foot incurred over the summer.  Some subset of these guys have to elevate the passing game immediately, and it may very well be some of the newer players seeing significant roles throughout the season.  Coach Billy Gonzales has a lot of work to do to get this unit contributing early and often.

The TE room once again is the subject of much debate.  Will they ever become enough of a threat in the passing game to keep defenses honest, or will they continue to be mostly run blockers with the occasional reception?  Hayden Hansen is the clear TE1, an excellent blocker who IMO has been underutilized as a receiver – especially in the red zone.  Tony Livingston showed some promise late in 2024 as more of a receiving threat, while Amir Jackson is an elite athlete who redshirted as a freshman and hopefully earns some meaningful snaps this fall.  Coach Callaway has to get these guys more incorporated into the pass game.  Perhaps……maybe……Napier actually allows him more input into the playcalling this season.

Finally we come to the offensive line.  Surprisingly, this unit showed significant improvement the second half of 2024, as playing positions were finally sorted out and Lagway’s presence actually forced defenses out of stacking the box every down.  This group is by far the best overall collection of players that Napier and coaches Rob Sale and Jonathan Decoster have had at Florida, and they are expected to be one of the better units in the SEC this season.  They’ll need to be, as expectations for Lagway and the talented skill position players – along with growing impatience from Gator Nation to see an effective and exciting offense for the first time since 2020 – are very high.  The line is anchored by center Jake Slaughter, who developed into an All-American last season.  LT Austin Barber decided to bypass the Draft and returns as one of the better tackles in the SEC and will protect the QB’s blind side.  Damieon George found a home at guard and started to fulfill his potential, especially in the running game.  Knijeah Harris and Roderick Kearney will both be in the guard rotation, and either could start.  The RT position is a battle between Bryce Lovett and Devon Manuel, with Lovett likely getting the starting nod.  There is actually some quality depth along the O-Line for the first time in Napier’s tenure, and expect to see Fletcher Westphal, Kam Waites, and Caden Jones manning multiple positions throughout the season.  It’s been a slow process by the OL coaches to get to this point – it has to pay off in 2025.  The offense has not shown consistency nor effectiveness against the elite teams Florida plays each year, and is far overdue to change that.

Defense

After 2 horrific seasons in 2022 and 2023, I hoped 2024 would finally show significant improvement.  Well…..it didn’t, until Napier finally had his hand forced by a losing record and the threat of losing his own job.  He finally jettisoned the Boy Blunder, Armstrong, and handed the reins to an adult with actual experience in the SEC.  Roberts immediately scrapped the overly complex, read-and-react scheme that was exploited for 2 1/2 years and became a national joke.  He installed a simplified, attacking scheme, and – lo and behold – Florida started to look like a competent defense that actually utilized the talent and athleticism on the roster.  Despite a few critical losses to graduation, the portal, and the NFL Draft, the Gators return many of the 2-deep on defense, and are poised to show continued improvement in 2025.

The defensive line led the turnaround in 2024, but has to overcome the loss of DT Jackson to the NFL and Edge rushers Pyburn, Searcy, and Kelby Collins (all through the portal).  The DT rotation is led by Caleb Banks, who flashed all-SEC form last season and surprised many by forgoing the Draft and returning to Gainesville.  This unit should be bolstered by the return of Jamari Lyons, who missed all of 2024 with a broken ankle, and Brendan Bett (portal transfer from Baylor).  However, depth and experience are lacking, and freshmen Michael Boireau and Joseph Mbatchou will be forced into action.  There’s enough talent within this group to compete, but it cannot suffer many injuries.  The DE/Edge group hopes to offset the portal losses with a lot of returning talent, albeit young and lacking in experience.  Tyreak Sapp is the unquestioned leader, really coming on after the coaching coup and performing as one of the best in the SEC at both setting the edge against the run and rushing the passer.  LJ McCray and George Gumbs are expected to make a jump with a year of experience, while Kamran James needs to bounce back from a disappointing sophomore season.  Kofi Asare is a 4th-year junior transfer from UMass with the physical traits, but unproven against top-tier competition.  Finally, true freshman Jayden Woods was one of the top recruits in the country and has impressed in practice and is already pushing for some early playing time.

The LB corps is similar to the RB room in that it has a lot of talent, but is very young.  The loss of James and his leadership will be hard to replace, but this group has the potential to surprise in a big way if they can build upon last season.  Sophomores Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles are elite athletes and already look the part physically – both showed 3-down potential against the run and in coverage.  Pup Howard and Jaden Robinson are experienced and good leaders – both just need to stay healthy.  Freshman Ty Jackson has already received praise from the coaches for showing natural instincts for the position, and likely gets more snaps as the season progresses.  This is probably the best group of LBs at Florida since 2016.  Coach Roberts is also the LB position coach and has a lot to work with, but there’s not much depth.

The secondary finally has the experience and depth needed to compete in the SEC.  The only question is, will the key players actually stay healthy?  Like the rest of the defense, this group came on the second half of 2024 and actually started to make some big plays and generate turnovers.  It will be interesting to see how the dynamic of coaching turnover – Harris leaving and Sunseri and Wilson arriving – affects this group.  The early returns from the players has been good, but the proof will come when the actual games are played.  At cornerback, Devin Moore is the unquestioned leader, but hasn’t made it through a full season healthy.  Dijon Johnson, Cormani McClain, and Aaron Gates are all capable players and comprise a solid rotation.  Gates is coming off of late-season knee surgery and hopefully is close to 100% by mid-September.  True freshman and legacy Ben Hanks III has impressed in fall camp, and freshmen J’vari Flowers and Onis Konanbanny are highly regarded.  All could see increased snaps throughout the season to provide some depth.  The safety position is the best group since Napier arrived, but lacks experience behind the starters. Sharif Denson, Jordan Castell, and Bryce Thornton comprise the starting rotation, but all have struggled with injuries and have had their issues on the field.  Florida brought in elite freshmen Lagonza Hayward and Drake Stubbs, and I expect to see them gain additional snaps throughout the season and perhaps contribute more than many expect.  The entire secondary really struggled both in coverage and tackling in space until Coach Harris arrived, so here’s hoping the new coaches can build on that.

Special Teams

The “Gamechangers” have made a mockery of that title for most of Billy Napier’s tenure.  Penalties, mind-numbing personnel mistakes that led to the Twister mat added to the sideline to get the right number of players on the field, and a lack of big plays – either kickoff/punt returns or blocked kicks.  All have dogged the Gators for most of 3 seasons.  However, bringing Joe Houston in to help coordinate the special teams actually paid off as the 2024 season progressed.  He identified Dike as an effective punt returner, alternated Baugh and Badger to return kickoffs, and the coverage units were solid with few breakdowns.  Houston had two excellent specialists in PK Trey Smack and P Jeremy Crawshaw to work with, but both of them still improved from 2023 to 2024.

Entering 2025, Houston has a much larger pool of skill players to choose from for kick returns, and hopefully isn’t forced into using critical starters as before.  Based on the depth of both the WR and RB rooms, he should be able to find a few guys that can make an immediate impact.  Hawkins, Abrams, Brown, and Louis all have speed and elusiveness, and hopefully some combination can preclude risking starters at those positions.  Baugh and Mizell are capable, but the hope is that they won’t be needed and serve mostly as insurance in case of injuries or otherwise poor performance.  Explosiveness and big plays have been sorely lacking for far too long.  The only thing that would prevent the younger players from getting their chance is Napier’s high aversion to risk.  Will he show some trust and allow them the opportunity to prove both their big-play capability and ball security?

Smack returns at PK and should be one of the top specialists in the SEC.  He improved his accuracy last season, and has the strong leg that can make FGs from beyond 50 yards and also produce touchbacks on kickoffs.  A new punter was needed, and Florida brought in 5th-year senior Tommy Doman from Michigan to take the job.  He is a solid player with big-game experience, and should be a more than adequate replacement for Crawshaw. 

Special Teams as a whole are now more settled and the best that Napier has fielded.  Fortunately, his realization that having a dedicated coach to oversee all special teams paid dividends and improved Florida’s chances of winning close games.

Schedule and Outlook

The 2025 schedule is BRUTAL – again.  7 ranked teams (mostly in the Top 15), 3 in-state matchups, and a 4 game stretch from games 3 thru 6 that could determine Napier’s fate.  The second half of the schedule includes 3 difficult SEC matchups, but the aforementioned 4 game stretch will set the tone for the rest of the season.  I hear a lot of Gator fans saying “no more excuses” and “Playoff or bust” – I’ll believe it when I see it.

LIU – Win

I’ll be honest – I had no clue LIU had a football team.  The Sharks have had a decent history as a Division 1-AA team, but this is a huge mismatch.  This really shouldn’t even be a game – it should be a glorified scrimmage that hopefully allows Lagway to start shaking off a lot of rust, lets the offense work on timing and fundamentals, and allows the coaching staff to clear the bench by sometime in the 3rd quarter.  As always in games like these – NO INJURIES, please.

USF – Win

The Bulls come to Gainesville hoping to catch the Gators looking ahead, which could easily happen.  It had been a rough go for USF with coaching changes and roster turnover, but they have improved recently.  While the Bulls are seemingly on the right track and have the usual overflow of in-state talent to fill out their roster, Florida should win this game comfortably – even if Napier chooses to remain conservative a second consecutive week before the tough stretch to come. Hopefully their opener at home against Boise St. softens them up a little.

@LSU – Loss

There are Playoff expectations for the Tigers in 2025, and Brian Kelly is feeling some heat from the fan base.  LSU is loaded with talent, and had one of the Top 3 portal classes come to Baton Rouge as well.  This is a massive game for both teams and coaches, but I have more confidence in Kelly over Napier and the Tigers at home at night.  After two tune-up games, this will be a difficult step up in class for Florida.

@Miami – Win

Florida – and Napier – were embarrassed at the Swamp in last year’s opener.  The Cane staff basically called out Napier and the offense, saying they knew what was coming and when, and that humiliation carried over until November.  I’m gonna be a homer here and predict a Gator victory, but it won’t be easy.  Florida will be coming off of a very tough game at LSU, Miami always plays this game with hate, and I simply lack confidence in Napier until I see otherwise.  My hope is that the sting of last year’s loss provides the motivation and juice to find a way to win and show some professional and personal pride from BOTH the staff and players.

Bye Week

Texas – Loss

The Longhorns and their fan base are insufferable enough, but watching them enter the SEC in 2024 and immediately make the SECCG and the Playoff makes it even worse.  Texas lost a lot of talent to the NFL and the portal, and the environment in the Swamp could rattle them.  However, they have had excellent recruiting classes recently and have procured some elite portal players.  Everyone is already tired of hearing about QB Arch Manning, but Steve Sarkisian is an elite offensive playcaller, and I think they win this one close and late.

@Texas A&M – Win

Florida could easily come into the game with an 0-2 SEC record, making it (another) must-win for Napier.  The Aggies were the other early-season home embarrassment for the Gators in 2024, and my hope is, similar to the Miami Game, that the players and coaches use that as fuel.  The visiting team has won this game every time but once since 2012.  These teams match up very closely on paper – this one could be a Lagway special.

Mississippi St. (Homecoming) – Win

Florida should be able to handle the Bulldogs, even after the gantlet they will have run the previous 4 games.  MSU is still in a massive rebuild, and have a long way to go to defeat a team like the Gators just yet.  Having this game at home will help, as there likely is an emotional letdown and lots of bumps and bruises incurred by now.  Florida wins this one unless injuries have hit the roster at key positions, but it could be a sloppy and closer-than-expected game.

Bye Week

Georgia (Jacksonville) – Loss

Florida played its best game in the series since 2020 against the Bulldogs last year, and the gap seems to be closing.  But it’s not completely closed – both in talent and coaching.  The Gators will be coming off of a much-needed bye week and will be hyped for this game.  Turnovers and an aggressive approach by both the offense and defense could be enough to get the upset win, and this rivalry has proven that time and again.  Lagway was injured in this game last season and will have extra motivation.  Will that be enough?  I don’t think so.

@Kentucky – Win

This is the kind of game Napier has to win.  Kentucky struggled in 2024.  Mark Stoops is hearing it from the Wildcat fan base, and his flirtations with other job openings has caused a lot of sniping back and forth.  UK has not backfilled their recent talent losses as well as hoped, and they are back to their familiar position as an SEC also-ran.  That being said, Stoops will do what he usually does when outmatched by an opponent – muddy up the game, run the ball as much as possible to limit the number of possessions, and see if the opponent panics and/or falls into the trap.  It could happen again with Napier, but I think the Gators pull through (as long as they are healthy).  

@Mississippi – Loss

This will mark 6 weeks since Florida played it’s last home game, and that could play a huge role in the result.  The Rebels were on the Playoff doorstep when they came to the Swamp last year, and the Gators shattered those dreams.  Lane Kiffen will have them ready for payback, and despite not being as talented as the 2024 team, that motivation – along with the Gators being road weary at this point – is enough for Ole Miss to exact at least some revenge.

Tennessee- Win

Finally, Florida returns to the Swamp.  By then, this game could have a lot of drama surrounding it – especially if Florida has struggled in 2025.  The Vols backed into the Playoff in 2024 after a handful of teams were upset, and were summarily bounced out by eventual National Champion Ohio St.  Tennessee lost a significant amount of talent along both sides of the line of scrimmage, and has dealt with some QB drama.  By this late in the season, one or both teams could be beaten up physically and emotionally, and it could get ugly either way.  I’m going with the home team – Florida hasn’t lost to the Vols in Gainesville since 2003.

Florida $tate – Win

If Florida is even relatively healthy by this point, they should be a solid favorite over F$U.  The Seminoles were historically bad in 2024 (worst season since 1973) – and it was glorious to watch.  Mike NorveLLLLLLLLLL has acted even more unhinged than usual all offseason, as he knows his program is circling the drain and is feeling the pressure.  It’s hard to believe, but his buyout is actually larger than Napier’s – much larger – so the Criminole faithful likely are stuck with him for at least a few more years.  Once again their high school recruiting has been miserable, and they have relied heavily on the portal for immediate help.  There’s no way, however, they will ever catch lightning in a bottle through the portal like they did in 2023, and the Gators will extend their suffering into the offseason.

Overall Record          8-4

SEC Record              4-4

In a complete reversal to the start of 2024, the 2025 season arrives with high expectations from Gator Nation and national pundits for Billy Napier and his program.  Despite another difficult schedule, it’s put up or shut up time.  There is finally enough talent and depth throughout the roster to make a run at 9+ wins and be in the Playoff hunt into November.  The 4-game winning streak to conclude 2024 bought Napier some leeway, but that could evaporate quickly if the Gators stumble in games 3 through 6.  We will know by then if Napier has indeed built a sustainable program that allows his players and coaches to maximize their potential – or not.

Napier has done himself no favors with multiple self-inflicted wounds, including bad coaching hires, bad situational playcalling, critical special teams gaffes, and a maddening lack of urgency and pace regarding the offense that has directly led to losses.  That’s unacceptable, especially when he has been given more resources financially and staff-wise than any previous Florida coach, and has not shown a positive return-on-investment to date.  It’s time for proof of concept, and the measurement will be the Win/Loss record.

You can’t hide in the SEC, and any good (or bad) will be exposed quickly.  There is no more time for slow starts and glacial improvement – Florida must come out of the box hard and fast, and keep going.  The season could go a lot of ways, and we’re about to see where.  I believe winning 8 games would be a good enough season for Napier to keep his job, and even allow for continued recruiting success.  Getting to 9 or more wins would actually get the fan base excited again and make some ripples nationally.  We will see after 2025 is over if it’s all of Gator Nation pulling one way, or Gator Nation v. Napier Nation – again.

It’s that time again……Heeeeeeeeeeeere come the Gators!

Mr. Napier’s Wild Ride came to an end for 2024 with a 31-11 win at Florida State.  It certainly wasn’t pretty, and it was obvious that Florida had a mental letdown after the previous 2 games, but any win over the Criminoles is a good one. It was a cold night in Taliban City, but an even colder one for Criminole fans, as they contemplate their poor incoming recruiting class and the fact they are stuck with Mike NorveLLLLLLLLLL and his remaining $80M+ contract with a current buyout well above $50M.  LMAO

I have been to 43 consecutive regular-season games in this rivalry, and can say that this FSU team was HORRIFIC.  I mean, so bad that even though the Gator offense was struggling with a lack of focus and through some questionable playcalling, I was never worried about getting the win.  This is easily the worst team they have fielded since 1973 and 1974, when they won a total 1 game over those 2 seasons and almost disbanded the program.  The famous quote from “Conan the Barbarian” pleasantly came to mind……”What is best in life?  To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women.” 

The Florida defense feasted on true freshman QB Luke Kromenhouk and a turnstile-like O-line all night.  They racked up 8 sacks, forced 8 fumbles – recovering 5 – and only allowed 1 sustained drive the entire game until garbage time in the 4th quarter.  The timing of 2 of those turnovers was devastating to the Criminoles.  A strip-sack by DE Jack Pyburn led to Florida’s first score on a short field, and a botched pitch at the Gator 3-yard line on the aforementioned sustained drive took away what little momentum they had and gutted them mentally.  Tyreke Sapp terrorized Kromenhouk and lived in the backfield the entire game.  DTs Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks both were injured early but returned to plug the middle.  The secondary really wasn’t challenged, and FSU only completed a few throws more than 10 yards beyond the LOS.  At one time in the 3rd quarter, Florida was playing 5 true freshmen on defense, and even then they held up for the most part.  This was essentially a controlled scrimmage for the defense – that’s how ineffective and impotent FSU’s offense was.

The Gator offense played a ‘C’ game at best.  There were some poor routes run by the WRs – one leading to an interception that ended a potential TD drive.  The O-line struggled at right guard with the absence of Damien George, and DJ Lagway was not as sharp as usual.  He will need to work on setting his feet more often and also his arm angle when making shorter throws – it cost him an easy TD throw to Elijhah Badger early in the 3rd quarter and also led to some series-ending incompletions to open receivers.  Fortunately the running game was working like it has most of the season.  Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson alternated most of the first half and were effective, and Montrell Johnson effectively ended the competitive phase of the game early in the 4th quarter with his 65-yard burst for a TD and a 24-3 lead.  It was fitting that he was untouched on the run, perfectly epitomizing F$U’s lost season.  Florida easily could have scored 2-3 more touchdowns if it played with the intensity and focus of the previous 2 weeks, but did enough to stay comfortably ahead and close out the season on a 3-game winning streak.

Florida finishes 2024 at 7-5, with 3 straight important victories.  This has led to a surge in recruiting, bringing the class ranking up from a shockingly-low 51 at the start of November to hovering around the Top 10.  The Gators were able to flip a handful of 4* players (including 2 from FSU) and finally close on some others, which just shows that a lot of kids were waiting to see if Napier would ever put a winning product on the field.  This finish is a complete 180 from the end of 2023, where Florida had 6 quality recruits decommit the last month of the season during a disastrous 5-game losing streak.  The next step is to carry the current momentum into the first portal cycle that runs from December 9-28.  Here’s hoping the alleged new commitment to increased funding for NIL yields dividends, as there are still some critical roster spots to fill at OT, DT, WR, EDGE, and S.  It’s nice to see the high school recruiting improve, but none of those kids can immediately fill those roster needs in a starting role.

The Gators now await their bowl game destination and opponent.  After the Playoff games, bowl games are even more dreck than ever, with many players either opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft or going into the portal and looking for a new school/opportunity.  In most cases these games will be scrimmages between teams that are very different than in the regular season.  The main benefit is the extra practices for the young and/or inexperienced players in preparation for spring practice, summer workouts, and fall practice.  The start of the 2025 regular season essentially begins now – at least this offseason will be filled with some legitimate hope and enthusiasm for the future.

Go Gators!

Florida and Billy Napier pulled a rabbit out of the hat Saturday, finding a way to pull off it’s second straight upset of a ranked opponent at The Swamp.  This time it was Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin being victimized by a 24-17 loss that will haunt them for a lifetime.  Despite a noon kickoff, the game was a sellout, and once again the home crowd was a large factor in the victory.  The positive vibes from the LSU win carried over, and the Gators were able to desperately hold on during a tense 4th quarter.

The Rebels rolled up well over 400 yards of offense, won the time of possession battle, and moved at will between the 20s.  That’s when things got really weird.  Despite QB Jaxson Dart being an accomplished passing and running threat that the Gator defense had to account for, time and again Kiffin rolled out his jumbo package in short yardage situations, with DT JJ Pegues taking the snap as QB.  He came into this game converting all 12 of his rushing attempts for either a first down or a touchdown, but the defense rose up and stopped him 3 out of the 5 times he ran the ball – twice in the red zone.  It seems Kiffin outsmarted himself in this circumstance, and it was one of the 2 main reasons they lost.  The other was multiple dropped passes or potential TD throws that simply went through the hands of their WRs, which hadn’t been an issue all season.  It had to be incredibly frustrating for the Rebels as the game wore on, and it seemed to take a mental toll on them late, as they – and Dart especially – pressed too hard in the last 6 minutes and coughed up 2 egregious interceptions.  I will say that Florida – to it’s credit – played hard and fast on defense, and that created some of the good fortune.  Caleb Banks and the D-line had another solid game with multiple tackles for loss and getting 3 sacks.  The secondary lost perhaps it’s best remaining player in Aaron Gates in the 1st quarter due to a knee injury, but Bryce Thornton filled in at less than 100% himself and had the game of his life, recording 14 tackles and getting the 2 interceptions late in the 4th quarter that sealed the win.  Once again it was basically 4 DBs playing almost every snap, with little relief or rest and under constant pressure.  While they were beaten more often than not, the combination of the rush along with pure hustle was just enough to make this game of inches go Florida’s way.

The Gator offense was able to do just enough to stay close early and then take the lead for good in the 4th quarter.  The running game did better than many expected, rolling up 164 net yards and providing Lagway enough balance to complete 10 passes for 180 yards.  Montrell Johnson carried the ball for 107 yards on Senior Day, which must have felt especially good after struggling through multiple injuries this season.  The Ole Miss D-line is legit and one of the elite groups in the country.  DT Walter Nolan specifically was a PROBLEM – he dominated against both the run and rushing the QB, and is gonna be a rich man soon in the NFL.  The Florida O-line was up against it all afternoon and had it’s struggles, but was able to establish the running game and give Lagway just enough opportunities to make plays.  One of the best results from the game was seeing former Gator Princely Umanmielen have no impact whatsoever, recording just 2 tackles, and then acting the fool after the game outside the stadium as Gator fans gave him everything he deserved.  Enjoy the bitterness of a wasted season. 

It’s now on to Taliban City and the final regular season game against Florida State.  In what can only be described as an utter and complete collapse that began with their humiliating 63-3 loss to Georgia in last season’s Orange Bowl, the Seminoles come into this game as one of the worst teams in the FBS.  Quite the turnaround for supposed coaching savant Mike NorveLLLLLLLLL and his portal wizardry.  Their only 2 wins have come at home – a 5-point victory against a 5-6 California team that missed 2 short FGs, and last week against FCS school Charleston Southern……a classic battle of two 1-9 teams.  That new $84M contract F$U signed NorveLLLLLLLLL to before the season started makes Napier and his $26M buyout look like a bargain, and they are stuck with him for at least 1-2 more seasons due to an even more massive buyout.

F$U’s offense has been truly offensive in 2024.  They are currently ranked 131st out of 134 FBS teams in scoring average at a paltry 15.8 points/game.  Their supposed big-time QB signing from the portal, DL Ulagalelei, was a complete bust, and his midseason injury has forced them into burning the redshirt year of true freshman Luke Kromenhoek.  While having some raw talent, he’s been overwhelmed in his few games as the starter, and right now is more of a running threat than a passing one.  As bad as it’s been this season, they do have a few legit skill position players in RB Lawrence Toafili and WRs Ja’khi Douglas and Malik Benson.  What’s undercut any hope of success is a horrific O-line that started the season with mediocre talent and frightfully thin quality depth.  It only took a few injuries and a key portal defection (former Gator Richie Leonard – LMAO) to gut the unit and make it nearly impossible to sustain any consistent offense for even one complete game.  Other than Samford, this is the largest mismatch the Gator defense has entered into a game with.  After 2 rousing (and draining) wins and 4 straight games against Top 12 SEC opponents, I’m not sure how much is left in the tank physically and emotionally.  I am encouraged by the consistent effort and results (excluding the debacle at Texas – having to play QB3 along with almost the entire starting secondary missing).  Many young players have taken advantage of being forced into starting or key rotation roles, and the hope is that they can hold up for just one more game.  Florida’s front seven should be able to win it’s share of battles at the LOS, and the secondary should be able to handle the Seminole WRs after holding up pretty well against the elite WR corps of LSU and Ole Miss the past 2 weeks.  DC Ron Roberts needs to continue the recent trend of getting after the QB with line stunts and blitzes.  As soon as Kromenhoek has to come off of his first read, he will likely panic and take off running, so that’s where disciplined rush lanes and DE play need to be on display to prevent that from extending drives.

I expect more of the same from the Gator offense that we’ve seen the last 2 games.  Establish a consistent running game, and take shots deep to Badger or Dike when available.  Lagway will still be playing at less than 100%, but he’s shown that he can still be effective and get the job done even without being able to run as much as usual.  I am still waiting for him to utilize the TE and RBs more in the passing game to make it easier extending drives.  The RB rotation right now is one of the best in the SEC, and should be able to feast as the game wears on.  LIke with the defense, I want to see a game plan that is aggressive and fast-paced.  Apply pressure to the Seminole defense from the outset, and keep applying it for 4 quarters.  FSU’s defense has performed well at times throughout their season, but have to be worn down and demoralized after time and again trudging back on to the field after another short-lived offensive possession.  DL Patrick Payton has been solid all season, racking up 4 sacks and being a disruptive force.  DBs Shyheim Brown, Azareye’h Thomas, and KJ Kirkland are all good players, but are also the 1st, 3rd, and 5th leading tacklers on the season.  That’s a terrible sign for any defense – and underlines how badly most of their front seven has played all season.  Florida’s O-line needs to continue it’s improved play and lean on the defense all night.  As with any game where Napier is involved in the playcalling, it will look slow and ugly at times, but Florida has enough on offense to eventually pull away on the scoreboard.

One thing that Florida St. has had this year is an excellent pair of kicking specialists.  PK Ryan Fitzgerald has made all of his 14 XPs and 12 FG.  Punter Alex Mastromanno is one of three finalists for the Ray Guy Award, which makes sense, as he’s had plenty of reps this season.  Samuel Singleton has been a dangerous kickoff returner, averaging 26 yards per return, including a touchdown.  Fortunately, Florida’s special teams have been solid overall for the first time in Napier’s tenure.  PK Trey Smack and P Jeremy Crawshaw compare favorably to FSU’s specialists.  Smack has improved throughout the past month and has range well beyond 50 yards.  Crawshaw came close to being a Ray Guy Award finalist himself, and should have made the cut.  He has continually pinned opponents inside the 20 when needed, and also can boom a punt long if required.

So, what will happen on a cold Saturday night?  Yes, this is a rivalry game, but this is a historically (and hysterically) bad F$U team, and winning this year is close to non-negotiable for Napier.  I don’t want to see a regression back to “complimentary football” and a slow pace on either offense or defense.  Come out right from the start playing hard and fast, get after the Seminoles early, build a lead, then really put the hurt on them in the second half.  He’s earned a 4th year with the turnaround and improvement shown the past 6 weeks, but a lot of that positive capital would be lost in a huge upset loss.  The high school recruiting class has been given a shot in the arm the past 10 days with some solid commitments, including flips from 2 former Seminole recruits.  Allegedly there is a renewed focus on increased funding for NIL.  Florida has lagged behind on this since it’s inception in 2022, and it is sorely needed to fill some current and future critical holes on the roster.  This is an opportunity to continue the recent upswing in performance, show continued improvement, and carry some real momentum into the offseason, spring and fall practice, and into the start of the 2025 season.  I know the Gators are coming off of an incredibly tough stretch of games and back-to-back emotional wins, but the coaching staff and leaders on the team need to keep the team focused and go deep into the well once last time.  Don’t screw it up.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 4

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 4 or 3 (win or loss)

Prediction:

Florida 34

Florida St. 16