I tried.  I really tried.

I looked at the recruiting rankings of the new players, I studied the resumes of the new coaches,  I evaluated how the portal transfers would fit into the roster/depth chart.  I listened to the carefully-crafted “message” coming out of PRAVDA, er, the UAA, and press conferences from Billy Napier.  I did all of that, and despite what my eyes told me the past 2 seasons, I picked Florida to win on Saturday and projected a 7-win season.

As I type this from my rural Central Florida basement, I realize I was conned.  Conned by Napier himself and the “message”.  What I saw in person at the Swamp was a dereliction of duty, the same unproductive, unimaginative offense, and the same defensive scheme run by the “Godfather” of that scheme, Ron Roberts.  Well, it’s time for both of them to find a horse head in their bed, because it’s over for Basement Billy, and I wonder if this coaching staff can coax even 4 or 5 wins out of this team.  The coaching is terrible except for maybe the RBs under Jabbar Juluke and the CBs under Will Harris.  And all of the talk about how the talent level of the roster has been elevated is highly in question, because I witnessed a horrific O-line, a soft, weak front seven on defense, and the same mistake-filled safety play repeated from the previous 3 seasons. 

The only things I liked from the offense were that there were a decent number of passes thrown to the intermediate and deep zones, and the long TD run by Montrell Johnson on one of the VERY few plays that were blocked well by the O-line.  Contrary to popular opinion, Graham Mertz actually had a clean pocket for most of the 1st half, but showed his limitations, again.  He proved inaccurate beyond 6-8 yards past the line of scrimmage, and was continually late on deeper passes.  It was by far his worst game as a Gator, and killed any chance of keeping the game even close.  To cap off a miserable day, he missed a TD with his interception in the 4th quarter, and his lack of mobility also contributed to his incurring a concussion on the same play.  The O-line did none of the skill players any favors, looking weak and disorganized most of the afternoon.  The right side of the line was a disaster, imitating a sieve.  Napier and Rob Sale seemed to treat this game as a scrimmage, rolling in different combinations even when there were a few decent plays executed – no stability or continuity.  Why Sale has a job is a mystery now, as he hasn’t recruited nor developed even a decent line or improved any of his players for over 2 years now.  Sadly, he’ll be around as long as Napier, which likely isn’t much longer.  Elijhah Badger looked far and away the best WR, as he was open all day, but Mertz couldn’t deliver consistently.  Tre Wilson was misused once again, mostly on bubble screens and short routes around the LOS.  The TEs were ignored in the playcalling for some reason, and their blocking was almost as bad as the O-line.  Just a complete and utter failure by the coaching staff, proving they are unable to construct a viable SEC offense.  As expected, all of the talk from Napier about playing DJ Lagway and having a special package for him was just that – talk.  He wasn’t going to put Lagway in until he was forced to, and when he finally did get to play, the playcalling looked just the same.  Lagway at least did some good things – actually throwing and completing 2 slant routes over the middle (which Mertz seemingly just can’t or won’t do), and showed off his mobility to extend a few plays and lead a TD drive.

Florida’s defense was nearly as bad as the offense.  The front seven looked demonstrably smaller, weaker, and slower than the Miami O-line, and were abused all game.  There is nothing good to say about any individual player, as none of them contributed anything of note, other than the two personal foul penalties that assisted in two Miami TD drives.  The LB play was marginally better than the D-line.  Pup Howard was sideline-to-sideline making plays, and Shemar James had a great interception in the 1st quarter that the offense failed to cash in on, settling for a FG after starting with a short field.  But neither were real factors for much of the game.  None of the other LBs played well.  The secondary was hit-or-miss – literally and figuratively.  Jason Marshall was solid and gave up only 2 short completions.  Devon Moore looked OK until getting injured – again.  Some of the younger CBs got more snaps than expected and did their best, but buckled while Cam Ward had too much time to survey the field while the front seven was getting stoned at the LOS.  The safety play was just brutal, though.  Missed tackles, blown coverages, allowing Cane receivers free run through the middle zones all afternoon.  Essentially the same crap we’ve seen since 2021.  There is no excuse for them anymore – even with a scheme that has proven useless and ineffective, someone should be able to make some plays now.  This just goes back to my wondering if the talent level really was all it was being hyped up to be……I don’t think it is.  Napier should immediately remove Austin Armstrong, demote Roberts to only coaching the LBs, and let Harris run the defense.  But that will never happen, as Napier has no self-awareness nor the humility to admit failure and make necessary changes – just unnecessary ones (like firing 2 respected coaches in Sean Spencer and Corey Raymond and keeping Armstrong around after last season). 

Next up for Florida is Samford.  The Bulldogs came to the Swamp in 2021 and lost 70-52, but won in helping push Dancin’ Danny Mullen and Todd Grantham out the door.  This years’ edition of them is nowhere as talented or dangerous offensively. Other than QB Quincy Crittendon, who is athletic and can extend plays, the Gator defense should be able to control the game from the outset.  At least I hope so.  Which is a good thing, because Lagway gets the start at QB while Mertz sits out until he passes concussion protocol.  I actually hope 3rd-string QB Clay Millen gets in some work as well, because he may be needed more than anyone expected as the season progresses.  While it would be nice to see Lagway roll up huge numbers with exciting plays, I’m expecting Napier to play it safe, run the ball a lot, and try to protect him from injury and get by with a win, even if it’s ugly.  Samford’s defense is bad, though, so the Gators could still run up an easy 30+ point win.

Nothing from this game will satisfy the masses now, however.  There is so much anger and disgust lingering from last Saturday’s embarrassment that it will take a big win this week AND winning next week against Texas A&M to get the noise to die down even just a little.  As always in a game like this, the biggest hope other than winning is NO INJURIES, PLEASE.

I could go into a lot more detail and expound on the deficiencies of both the coaching staff and roster, but It’s now 100% in the open for all of Gator Nation to see, and it has had enough.  Even the national media has joined in, roasting Napier all week.  Napier threw more fuel onto the fire with his disparaging remarks about the fan base, which is always the Sign of the Apocalypse for any coach before he’s eventually fired.  

I’m just glad I have some internet service here in my rural Central Florida basement.

Pre-game Sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game Sitrep: DEFCON 1

Prediction:
Florida 41 Samford 7

The 2024 season starts with I’d say more trepidation than excitement for Gator Nation, as the Miami Hurricanes come to Gainesville for a rare visit to play Florida.  It was a LONG ‘winter of discontent’, followed by a LONG ‘spring of discontent’, followed by a LONG ‘summer of discontent’.  More coaching changes, more talk of possibly sharing playcalling responsibilities, another attempt to build at least a functional SEC-level defense, and even changes to the heads of both Strength and Conditioning and Nutrition.  Billy Napier’s Florida resume looks really weak to date with way too many holes and missteps, and he’s facing intense pressure to deliver proof of concept by finally winning more games and proving the Gators are a well-coached team.

Florida’s offense will have it’s hands full with Miami’s front seven.  The Canes have a force at DE in Rueben Bain, a disruptive player who will test Florida’s tackles – Austin Barber backed up by ARkansas transfer Devon Manuel at LT and some combination of San Diego St. transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and Kam Waites at RT.  The other 3 DL are transfers, but all are experienced and solid players.  The Gators will have to prove they can do more in the passing game than the dink-and-dunk attack from last season.  Graham Mertz has to utilize the intermediate and deep zones more successfully to keep the defense honest and give his playmakers – especially Tre Wlson – opportunities to make explosive plays.  His previous connection with new WR Chimere Dike (who transferred in from Wisconsin) could pay dividends immediately.  Oregon transfer Elijhah Badger has looked solid in fall camp.  TEs Arlis Boardingham and Hayden Hansen need to provide quick outlets for Mertz if he’s under pressure.  Miami is starting 3 new players in it’s secondary, and Florida has to test them early and often.  If Mertz gets time to throw, he should find success downfield.

Notice that I haven’t talked about the Gator rushing attack.  This is normally what Napier would lean on in almost any game, but with Montrell Johnson likely not 100% returning from knee surgery 4 weeks ago and with little experience behind him, I’m not sure there will be consistent success to be found unless the passing game can provide balance.  Treyaun Webb, Jaden Baugh, and Ja’Kobi Jackson all have legit talent and will get touches, but they have precious little experience in pass protection or as receivers out of the backfield, which is where Johnson’s potential lack of availability could hurt.  Miami LBs Wesley Bissainthe and Francisco Mauigoa are very good, and will be hard to run against unless the O-line really plays well.  The interior of the Gator O-line could be very good with the rotation of Jake Slaughter, Knijeah Harris, Damieon George, Rod Kearney, and Bryce Lovett at the guard and center positions.  It will be interesting to see how Napier handles the playcalling as the game progresses – will he show aggressiveness, and, if so, for how long?  I doubt playing it safe will win this game – he has to attack consistently.

Even with some of the questions about the offense, it’s the Gator defense that will receive the most scrutiny on Saturday.  It was historically bad last season, and has to prove itself to everyone.  Ron Roberts has the responsibility to bring structure and cohesiveness to this unit, and leadership to the defensive coaching staff.  Austin Armstrong failed miserably as Defensive Coordinator in 2023, both calling games and by clashing with other position coaches.  While he has retained that title, it’s obvious that Roberts is really running the show.  The Florida front seven will have it’s hands full with Miami’s running attack, led by Oregon St. transfer Damieon Martinez, who ran for 1,185 yards last season.  Mark Fletcher is a solid second option who ran for over 500 yards as a true freshman.  The right side of Miami’s O-line is very good, with guard Anez Cooper and tackle Francis Mauiogoa.  Florida actually has the most returning experience and talent it’s had along the D-line in years, and they will be tested for 60 minutes.  The tackle rotation of Cam Jackson, Caleb Banks, and Penn transfer Joey Slackman has to at least gain a stalemate at the line of scrimmage, or it will be a long afternoon for the defense.  Miami was fortunate in getting QB Cam Ward to transfer in from Washington St.  He’s a decent passer who can scramble and has 2 full years of starting experience.  The Gator DEs have to get pressure on him and try to force some mistakes.  The return of Justus Boone after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury is huge for the pass rush, and the rotation of Tyreak Sapp, TJ Searcy, Kelby Collins, George Gumbs, and 5* true freshman LJ McCray will have to contribute.  It appears that Florida will have it’s best pair of linebackers since 2016 with Shemar James and South Carolina transfer Grayson ‘Pup’ Howard.  2 excellent true freshmen prospects – Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles – may have to grow up quickly.  Roberts will be the LB position coach and has a good reputation, and his unit is gonna be tested right from the start.  The rash of missed tackles and blown assignments seen the previous 2 seasons has to be rectified immediately.

The Gator secondary is the strongest and deepest unit on the defense, and will need to prove to the rest of the college football world it has moved past the horrific performance of the past 2 seasons.  The raw talent at the disposal of new secondary coach Will Harris is unmistakable.  CB Jason Marshall returns for his senior season ready to show he’s an early-round NFL Draft pick.  Devon Moore is a solid bookend to Marshall, but has to stay healthy for an entire season.  Aaron Gates and Dijon Johnson took their lumps as freshmen last season and should be much improved.  The safety position has been significantly upgraded from the experience gained by returning sophomores Jordan Castell and Sharif Denson, as well as getting transfers Asa Turner from Washington and Trikweze Bridges from Oregon, both of whom have plenty of starting experience.  The secondary will be challenged by Miami WRs Xavier Restepo, Jacolby George, and Houston transfer Samuel Brown.  All 3 are productive players with plenty of experience.  My biggest hope for the defense is that since this will be just the first game together for Ward and these receivers, that the noise of the Swamp, along with what should be an improved defensive front, is enough to force enough punts to give the Gator offense as many possessions as possible to generate points.

This is a massive game for both programs and head coaches.  Both have struggled recently, and the fan bases are frustrated with underachieving performance by both the players and coaches.  One team will get a springboard for a fast start and positive momentum, while the other will remain stuck in a rut both on the field and off.  I’m going with the home team in this game, only because it’s at the Swamp – not based on confidence in Napier’s playcalling or decision-making until I see proof on the field of play.  I think this one stays close all the way through and hopefully the Gator defense is improved just enough to hold on. 

Prediction:

Florida 27

Miami 24

I described the feeling of Gator Nation heading into the 2023 season as “Fear and Loathing in Gainesville”.  Sadly, that feeling wound up being spot on.  Even more sad is that it really applies more to Gator Nation heading into the 2024 season.  Despite an ugly season-opening loss at Utah, the Gators rebounded with a big home win over Tennessee and got to the Georgia game with a 5-2 record.  That’s when the wheels fell off, with a terrible 5-game losing streak to end the season caused by abysmal defense and some brutally-bad playcalling in critical moments.  Florida ended 2023 with a third-straight losing season, and my best description of the prognosis for 2024 is “what DEFCON level is the program at?  I’d say right now a 2, approaching 1 with a slow start.  Could things actually get worse?  Yes, they could.

Billy Napier courted even more controversy by staying with Austin Armstrong as the Defensive Coordinator, but brought in Ron Roberts from Auburn as an actual adult in the room who should command the respect of the defensive assistants, which Armstrong failed miserably at.  It led to the firing of two very respected position coaches in Sean Spencer and Corey Raymond, and generated even more questions about Napier’s leadership and decision-making.  Napier also had to replace both his Strength and Conditioning coach and Head Nutritionist, as it was painfully obvious as the season progressed that the Gators were lacking in both areas.  Again, that reflects directly on the head coach and his decision-making capability.

The key personnel losses were WR Ricky Pearsall, RB Trevor Etienne, and DE Princely Umanmielen.  While Pearsall moved on to the NFL as a 1st-round draft pick, Etienne and Umanmielen transferred to Georgia and Mississippi, respectively, leaving by taking some pointed shots at the coaching they received at Florida.  Both are on the 2024 schedule, and just add more fuel to the fire that Napier is in over his head trying to lead a SEC program.  Only his recruiting and coaching (or lack of) will answer the questions, which I’ll try to address here.

Offense

The Gator offense of 2023, despite some statistical success, proved to be limited in explosive play capability and inept at moving fast when the situation dictated it.  From the maddeningly slow pace and lack of urgency in the opener at Utah through the painfully conservative play (and unnecessary double-reverse pass that failed miserably and completely shifted the momentum of the game) in the last game against Florida State, Napier’s playcalling and seeming lack of feel for game flow and intensity had many fans howling for outright changes for 2024.  It appears he is doubling-down on himself, however, stating he will still be the primary playcaller while hedging with adding game plan and scheme input form TE coach Russ Callaway.  At this point I’d say the majority of Gator Nation won’t simply take those statements at face value, and wants to see proof of concept throughout the season.

The QB position is firmly in the hands of Graham Mertz after a solid 2023 season, and his play and leadership are critical to any success the offense and entire team has in 2024.  Mertz showed he could direct an efficient short passing game with great accuracy, but that same passing game was neither consistently effective nor quick-striking.  Too many times when Florida needed a quick score, Napier’s plodding game plan and Mertz’s lack of downfield accuracy doomed the Gators to a loss.  Even with what hopes to be a better O-line and a more open attack with input from Callaway, Mertz has to show improvement.  He needs to prove to defenses that he can utilize the entire field, and also help keep plays alive by managing the pocket better under pressure instead of scrambling out to the right and killing the play.  Heralded freshman DJ Lagway has already cemented himself as the #2 QB, and showed some promise with both his arm strength and running ability in the spring.  He will get some limited packages almost immediately to gain experience, but has to show he’s not just a placeholder and be effective when given the opportunity.  He has already shown enough maturity to not be overwhelmed by anything thrown his way so far, but we’ll see what happens when things get real.  Napier did a good job here by getting Clay Millen to transfer in from Colorado St.  He is a redshirt junior with plenty of playing experience and can keep things afloat if required, unlike the backup QBs of the previous 2 seasons.

The running back room came into fall camp as a group that, while not spectacular, looked solid and deep.  This despite the fact that it’s home-run hitter, Etienne, gave the Florida program and Napier a huge slap in the face by transferring to Georgia of all places, while departing with some choice comments about the program and Napier when he exited.  Then, in the very first few days of fall camp, Montrell Johnson went down with a knee injury that no one really knows the severity of.  Allegedly he is already back on on the practice field in a limited capacity after surgery, but his availability is unknown for the season opener and the next few weeks after.  He is by far the most experienced returning back and projected to be one of the team leaders, so any prolonged absence could really hurt the offense.  Losing his ability and experience in pass protection and as an outlet receiver that knows his routes are things that the casual fan doesn’t think about……until something bad happens.  Treyaun Webb is likely the starter in Johnson’s place, but didn’t get many snaps in 2023 and is still learning the finer points of the position.  True Freshman Jaden Baugh is a big, powerful back with decent speed that was coveted by major programs.  He had his moments in spring practice and the Orange and Blue Game, and there is some buzz he could be really good very early on.  Ja’Kobi Jackson is a junior with very little game experience that seems to have found his game recently.  He is likely the quickest and shiftiest of the backs and surprised in the spring.  Finally, true freshman Kahnen Daniels is another promising prospect that may be forced into action much sooner than desired, but could also make some plays.  Johnson’s quick return would certainly provide some reassurance to the rest of the offense and be that known quantity that every coach and QB wants.

The WR corps is the deepest it’s been since Napier took over, but still lacks overall experience and proven production beyond super sophomore Tre Wilson.  The loss of Pearsall will be felt, and Wilson has to step into the leadership role immediately.  He has the speed and elusiveness to be one of the best in the SEC, and showed even as a freshman he wasn’t afraid of the big stage.  Chimere Dike is a transfer from Wisconsin that knows Mertz well and should step right in as a starter.  Elijhah Badger transferred in from Oregon and seems to have secured the WR3 slot.  Kahleil Jackson returns with probably the best hands of the group and will be in the rotation.  Injuries happen, though, and depth is needed, so the unit still needs to find production out of returning receivers Marcus Burke, Ja’Quavion Fraziars, Andy Jean, and Aiden Mizell.  There is too much speed and size among them to simply be wasted.  Lastly, true freshmen Tank Hawkins and TJ Abrams have elite speed and elusiveness, and could be incorporated as threats on jet sweeps and also in the return game.  This group may be relied upon more heavily than in Napier’s first two seasons, especially if the running game struggles early.

The TE room has been significantly upgraded the past year and a half, and finally could be a consistent contributor to the offensive attack.  Arlis Boardingham and Hayden Hansen took over the position in 2023, and each showed some flashes of what they can do.  Boardingham is the quicker and better pass-catcher of the two, and gave defenses problems in the intermediate and red zones as he gained more playing time the second half of last season.  Hansen is a huge player at 6’7″ and 260 lb., and was an effective in-line blocker and occasional red zone target given the size advantage he possesses.  Both should be better with added experience.  Tony Livingston is a sophomore with lots of athletic ability, but he has to prove he’s a willing blocker and has learned the playbook to gain more snaps.  True freshman Amir Jackson impressed in the spring, but likely won’t see much action until he improves his blocking and is still learning the playbook.  I’m hoping position coach Callaway can get this unit more involved this season with his increased role in developing the game plan and playcalling.

As much as the offensive line was a pleasant surprise in 2022, it was an unpleasant one in 2023.  It was bad enough that the talent level was mediocre at best to begin with, but the lack of experience and depth behind the starters was magnified as the season wore on.  The running game struggled too often, and Mertz was running for his life too often and eventually incurred a season-ending injury against Missouri.  The lack of good O-line play led to the handcuffing of much of the playbook, leading to those long drawn-out drives when expediency was a must, and the high completion percentage for Mertz that didn’t really translate into a passing attack that stretched the field and threatened defenses.  Rob Sale hasn’t shown he can recruit or develop SEC-level players to date, and he and new assistant O-line coach Jon Decoster have a LOT of work to do.  There is some quality returning with Austin Barber at LT and Jake Slaughter at center, but still many questions.  Can the right side of the line finally be upgraded with more experience and some position switches?  Damieon George moves to guard, and San Diego St. transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson gets first crack at RT.  Knijeah Harris, Roderick Kearney, and Brycee Lovett are touted 2nd-year players that will have to step into contributing roles along the interior, while someone out of the group of Kamryn Waites, Caden Jones, and Arkansas transfer Devon Manuel have to provide some meaningful depth and snaps at the tackle positions.  It goes without saying that this group’s success or failure will ultimately decide the fate of the Gator offense in 2024.  The O-line play at Florida has been mediocre and inconsistent for far too many seasons since 2009, and that’s a killer in the SEC.

Defense

And I thought it couldn’t get any worse.  Defensive Coordinator Austin Armstrong was completely overmatched, showing his lack of experience and leadership in rolling out a historically bad unit in 2023 that matched dubious records set back in the 1940s.  The entire season was plagued by horrific tackling, terrible in-game management, confusion in lining up throughout the season, and a dearth of turnovers.  In addition, there was a LOT of infighting between Armstrong and then-DL coach Spencer and then-secondary coach Raymond – both successful position coaches whom Armstrong apparently thought he knew more than.  Other than all of that, all was well.  It’s become so bad that Napier had to go out and hire an actual experienced DC in Roberts to try and helm the defense, provide maturity and leadership, and babysit Armstrong, who for some reason still is on staff while Napier fired Spencer and Raymond.  Roberts comes from Auburn and is the alleged “godfather” of this scheme, which in itself is VERY worrisome, as this scheme hasn’t shown anything positive in 2 seasons.  Much is riding on Roberts making this unit simply functional and looking even marginally adequate to give the team any chance for success in 2024 – that’s how bad things have become.  If he fails, then both he and Armstrong are gonna find a horse head in their bed.

The defensive line started fall camp with more depth and experience than it has in years, but there are still issues.  The best pass rusher, Umanmielen, is now at Mississippi.  Jamari Lyons, who was going to be in the 4-man rotation at DT, broke his ankle in the first fall practice and is out for the season.  The tackle position is still in decent shape with returning starters Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks, but touted Penn transfer Joey Slackman has to step in and contribute immediately.  The injury to Lyons will force at least one undersized DE into the rotation – either Tyreke Sapp or Kelby Collins.  It’s the Last Chance Saloon for Des Watson, who supposedly has lost some weight from an obese 460+, but I’m not expecting much from him.  True freshman Michai Boireau may be forced into early action as well.  The situation at DE/Edge looks much better, starting with the return of Justus Boone after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury.  His leadership was sorely missed last season.  Collins, Kamran James, and TJ Searcy showed flashes as true freshmen, and are expected to contribute much more.  Jack Pyburn was coming on late in 2023 when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in November, and has made a rapid recovery – hopefully he’s ready to play earlier than expected.  Finally, true freshman LJ McCray is a 5-star recruit that has already shown well in spring practice and will play this season.  New DL coach Gerald Chatman has some decent talent and depth to work with, and hopefully can get this unit to play with more speed and aggression than seen the previous 2 seasons.  It’s incumbent upon this group to generate a better pass rush than last season, as well as making more plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, to give the rest of the defense any chance for improvement and the team more opportunities to win games.  Here’s hoping the group as a whole is in better shape this fall and actually allowed to play more aggressively by the scheme and play calls from Armstrong or Roberts – whomever is actually calling the defense.

The linebacker unit performed poorly as well last season and has much to prove.  There has been a lot of roster turnover and an injection of young and older talent, but can it all come together – and quickly?  It all starts with Shemar James, by far the most accomplished and talented player, who returns from a knee injury suffered in last year’s Georgia game which really hurt the entire defense.  His leadership and playmaking was missed, and his return provides a huge boost.  Grayson “Pup” Howard transferred in from South Carolina, where he played well as a true freshman in 2023, and looks to be an immediate starter.  Senior Derrick Wingo is the best run defender but has to improve in pass coverage.  Sophomore Jaden Robinson showed some promise in limited action in 2023 and has to take on an increased role.  Look for 2 outstanding true freshmen recruits – Aaron Chiles and Myles Graham (son of Earnest) – to get immediate snaps.  They are that talented and need to provide immediate depth.  This unit has more talent than it has in years but also lacks experience.  Roberts coaches the LBs and has a good track record as a position coach, and along with Mike Peterson really needs to bring this group along quickly.

To complete the trifecta, the secondary also struggled mightily last season, allowing far too many explosive plays and 3rd-down conversions that led to some brutal late-game collapses and losses.  New secondary coach Will Harris comes in with some excellent credentials from both college and the NFL and looks so far as a strong hire by Napier.  He inherits the defensive unit with the most returning talent, depth, and experience, but must rebuild their confidence and mold them into a well-functioning group.  The cornerback position is led by Jason Marshall, who surprisingly returns to Florida for his 4th year as a starter.  He has high-round NFL ability and just needs to find consistency in his game.  Devin Moore is likely the starter opposite Marshall.  He has proven ability to be a solid SEC CB, but in his case the most important ‘ability’ is availability – he’s been dogged by multiple injuries his first 2 seasons and must stay healthy.  Ja’Keem Jackson, Aaron Gates, and Dijon Johnson are all true sophomores who flashed ability and playmaking skills in limited roles last season and will receive plenty of snaps in the CB rotation.  The safety position was a mess in 2023, highlighted by poor tackling, lack of ball skills, and recurring blown assignments.  Part of this was inexperience as multiple true freshmen were thrown into the fire, but the coaching and scheme disagreements between Armstrong and Raymond removed any real chances for success.  Transfers Trikweze Bridges from Oregon and Asa Turner from Washington are both 5th-year seniors with starting experience at successful programs and will be in the mix for starting roles.  Jordan Castell and Sharrif Denson took their lumps as freshmen last season and should be much improved.  Some combination of sophomores Bryce Thronton and DJ Douglas, along with freshmen Jameer Grimsley and Teddy Foster, have to step up and provide some immediate depth.

Special Teams

Once again, the “Gamechangers” made a mockery of that title for most of 2023.  There were multiple penalties of the usual sort, but two especially egregious mistakes directly led to two losses.  First, there was the “two players with the same number on the punt return unit” penalty against Utah that led to a TD late in the first half and crippled Florida’s chances of victory.  The second was running the FG unit onto the field against Arkansas while the offense was wondering if the ball should be spiked to stop the clock.  The referees somehow didn’t penalize Florida as they should have, and the potential winning FG at the end of regulation was missed amid the confusion.  Unacceptable.  There were plenty of mindless holding penalties and other instances of a lack of focus and coaching that hindered success.

Napier has brought in Joe Houston to help coordinate the special teams, and yes – “Houston, there is a problem”.  It’s time to show professionalism across the board with these units.  Fortunately, Florida returns one of the top kicking duos in the country for 2024 to provide a solid starting point.  Trey Smack took over as the placekicker in the Tennessee game and did a very good job the rest of the way.  Yes, he missed that FG against Arkansas and a critical one against F$U, but no one will make every kick.  He showed a strong leg, making multiple FGs from beyond 50 yards, and was generally accurate.  He was also a weapon on kickoffs, driving most of his kicks into or beyond the end zone for touchbacks.  Punter Jeremy Crawshaw built upon a solid 2022 season and was one of the best in the country in 2023.  He has great leg strength, and improved his hang time.  He also proved adept at directional kicking when needed, continually pinning opponents inside their own 20-yard line to force long drives and improving the chances for better field position for the offense.

The kickoff return game took a step back in 2023, despite the combination of Etienne and Pearsall getting most of the reps.  Blocking was poor, and there were too many penalties.  With both gone now, the door is open for some new guys to provide some juice, with hopefully some better blocking and coaching from coach Houston.  There are plenty of candidates that can break long returns, including Wilson, Dike, and Mizell, and some of the freshmen like Hawkins and Abrams.  The same issues popped up with punt returns as well.  Someone from that same list of potential returners can inject some juice into a long-moribund unit.  Kickoff and punt coverage were bright spots, and among the best in the SEC and country.  With the deepest roster since Napier arrived, I expect this to continue with plenty of talent available.

Special Teams as a whole should be more settled and the best that Napier has fielded.  Yes, that’s a low bar, but you gotta start somewhere.  It seems he has started to realize that having a dedicated coach to oversee all special teams makes sense and should lead to better continuity, less in-game mistakes, and overall improvements.

Schedule and Outlook

The 2024 schedule is BRUTAL.  9 ranked teams (mostly in the Top 15), traditional powers, and a 5-game stretch to end the season that might be most difficult in Gator football history – and that is not hyperbole.  The first 7 games are no cakewalk either, but if the Gators are going to have any hope of having a winning record and getting to a bowl game, and if Billy Napier wants to keep his job, a fast start and winning 5 or 6 of them is essential.

Miami – Win

Talk about a critical opener for both programs.  Struggling teams, coaches on the hot seat, a seldom-played but intense in-state rivalry, and the need for a winning start to the season.  Miami has struggled on the road in recent seasons, and, while they have a solid new QB in Washington St. transfer Cam Ward, they are breaking in a new secondary and simply haven’t played up to their ability.  Stupor-Mario Cristobal understands this rivalry as a former Hurricane player, but his coaching has been as lackluster as Napier’s, and my hope is that playing in the Swamp is enough for Florida and it’s rebuilt defense to escape with a close win.  This game is a must-win for Napier – if Florida loses, it will be DEFCON 1 in Gator Nation.

Samford – Win

This game should be a breather, but there will be a letdown no matter what from the previous week.  It’s on the coaching staff and team leaders to get the team focused on winning.  As always in games like these – NO INJURIES, please.

Texas A&M – Loss

This is where things start to get tricky.  The Aggies have a new head coach in Mike Elko and have recruited very well the past 3 years, but are still one of the biggest up-and-down teams from week to week.  Can Elko provide more consistency in performance?  Their defense will provide a stiff challenge, and I expect this game won’t be decided until late.  This is just the kind of game in which Napier’s teams have laid an egg.

@MIssissippi State – Win

Napier has had little success on the road so far, so until his teams show improvement there, it will be hard to predict any wins.  In this case, however, the Bulldogs are bringing in a new head coach, new offensive system, and have had a huge roster turnover.  The Gators will come in with a more established and experienced QB, which should be enough to carry the day.  Starkville is a weird place to play, though, and Florida has struggled there historically.

Bye Week

UCF – Win

Another must-win for Napier.  Losing to this Johnny-come-lately program would be a crushing defeat for the program and something that could really fragment the team camaraderie – and the fan base.  This will be UCF’s biggest game of the season, and they will pull out all the stops to try and get the upset.  You never know what Gus Malzahn will cook up – he’s a weird dude, but will throw everything he can at the Gators.

@Tennessee – Loss

Florida handled the Vols in Gainesville last year, and Tennessee struggled after that to a season far below expectations.  This will be a very tough test, and Josh Heupel’s offense will cause problems for the Gator defense.  I’m going with a loss here while still in wait-and-see mode on Napier’s road game performance against legit teams.

Kentucky (Homecoming) – Win

Another important game.  Florida has shockingly lost 3 straight to the Wildcats, and have looked terrible in each game.  It’s another opportunity for the coaching staff to prove they are better prepared than previous seasons and for the Gators to re-establish themselves in the series.  Mark Stoops will bring in his usual well-coached defense, and try to get another grind-it-out upset.

Bye Week

Georgia (Jacksonville) – Loss

The Bataan death march begins.  Even if Florida has shown by now that they have improved, they are still overmatched in talent and coaching in this game.  Normally I’d hope for an all-out effort and a chance at an upset, but not yet.  This will be 7 out of 8 losses in the series, and could bode ill for the rest of the season and Napier’s chances of surviving.

@Texas – Loss

No rest for the Gators, as they travel to play a resurgent Texas program.  Steve Sarkisian is an elite playcaller, and this could be Florida’s toughest defensive test of the season.  The Gators are capable of pulling off an upset, but after the emotional game against Georgia it will be that much tougher to do it.

LSU – Win

Florida has been dominated in this series since 2009, and have found some improbable ways to lose.  This game has become as much a mental hurdle as a physical one, and often that’s much harder to overcome.  I’m taking a leap of faith that the Gator defense will be extra motivated after last year’s historical collapse, and that coming back home to the Swamp provides enough of an emotional lift to get a much-needed win.

Mississippi – Loss

In a vacuum, I could see Florida with a good chance of winning this game.  But after the grind of a brutal SEC schedule, it could be too much to get up for one last conference game against another elite play-caller in Lane Kiffin.  I get the feeling this will be a wild back-and-forth game from start to finish, but that the Rebels steal a win late.

@Florida $tate – Win

Again, if Florida hadn’t by now played such a monster schedule and been through the wringer physically, mentally, and emotionally, I wouldn’t hesitate to predict a win.  As it stands, though, I’m predicting a victory because of the team at this point being battle-hardened and already having faced much tougher competition.  The Criminoles were gutted by graduation and defections to the NFL, and haven’t come close to replacing that lost talent.  Despite the game being in Taliban City, I’m hoping for an upset win to close out the regular season for the Gators.

Overall Record          7-5

SEC Record              3-5

The 2024 season arrives with the lowest expectations from much of the fan base and national pundits since either Charley Pell’s first year in 1979 or perhaps even going further back to – yes – the 1940s.  Such has been the recent level of performance from the players AND coaches.  The schedule itself has been discussed everywhere since it’s release, and is a cause for legitimate concern.  Florida’s projected win total over/under is 5.5, and it easily could wind up being under unless there is some fundamental improvement in both play AND playcalling.  The offense must show it can attack the entire field, while the defense has been a punching bag for the past 3 seasons and has to restore some lost pride.

This is Billy Napier’s most talented and experienced Florida team overall, but it arrives at the same time as immense pressure to win more games to potentially save his job against what his defenders will say is an impossible gantlet of opponents.  He has done himself no favors with multiple self-inflicted wounds, including bad coaching hires, bad situational playcalling, and simply dumb special teams mistakes that have directly led to losses.  He and some of his assistants – current and former –  have directly been the cause for 2-3 losses each of the previous 2 seasons.  That’s unacceptable, especially when he has been given more resources financially and staff-wise than any previous Florida coach, and has not shown a positive return-on-investment to date.  It’s both sad and disappointing that even predicting 7 wins is seen by many as wildly optimistic.

Lots of new faces in key roles – again – and a lot to prove to themselves and the country – again.  You can’t hide in the SEC, and the good (or bad) will be exposed quickly.  The schedule is likely one of the handful of most difficult Florida has ever faced, which allows no leeway for mistakes or chances to slowly improve as the season progresses.  The season could go a lot of ways, and we’re about to see where.  I believe winning 7 games would be a very successful season, which is a sad state of affairs and a separate discussion in itself.  Anything above that would be near-miraculous.  If additional injuries hit key players, the lack of talent and experience at certain positions will be quickly magnified.  Things will turn ugly – and fast.  Napier has lost most of the goodwill he arrived with, and Gator Nation – even the casual fan – is taking notice of the poor performance of not just the players, but some of the coaches.  This season arrives with more trepidation than excitement.

It’s that time again……Heeeeeeeeeeeere come the Gators!

Gator Nation was ready to celebrate a big win over a bitter rival, with the extra bonus of ruining a potential championship season for Florida State.  But……again……Lucy (er, Billy Napier) pulled the football away from Charlie Brown (er, Gator Nation) right before they could kick it, and instead we all fell on our ass (again) and watched a poorly-coached meltdown lead to another loss snatched from the jaws of victory.

After a fantastic start to the game, with the running game working and Max Brown getting just enough help to make some plays with both his arm and legs, the Gators had built up a 12-0 lead despite a missed FG and settling for a FG inside the red zone.  The defense was more aggressive than ever since Napier became head coach, continuously blitzing backup QB Tate Rodemaker and putting the Semenholes in a world of hurt.  Then, Napier went full-Napier, making one of the worst play calls I can remember in watching Gator football since 1973.  Florida had just sacked Rodemaker for a safety and that 12-0 lead, and Trevor Etienne had returned the subsequent free kick all the way into FSU territory.  With all of the momentum on it’s side and the crowd ready to celebrate extending the lead, Napier called for a double-reverse pitch back to the QB to attempt a long pass.  This, after watching Brown run for his life with precious little time to throw even on quick routes because of a beaten up and, frankly, subpar O-line.  Of course, the result was disastrous – an intentional grounding penalty that led to 2nd-and 24 and essentially killed all of the momentum gained up to then.  Yes, Florida was able to pin down FSU at the 10-yard line after punting, but they were able to scratch together a TD drive near the end of the half, helped by 2 crucial penalties – one which led to the ejection of DL Jamari Lyons after spitting in an opponent’s face.  You can’t make this sh……um……stuff up.  Then shockingly, with less than a minute to work with, the Gators were able to get within easy FG range, just to have a lazy holding call on a running play force a FG attempt over 50 yards, which was missed.

Of course, F$U took the second half kickoff and quickly scored the go-ahead TD, and just like that all of the good work was wasted.  Even after retaking the lead 15-14, you could see the same old conservative Napier playcalling in full effect, playing not to lose instead of staying aggressive.  Even with all of the struggles of the O-line, they could still run the ball reasonably well.  But Napier refused to give Brown any chance again of using his athleticism to make any effective pass plays by not rolling the pocket or continuing with some read option or RPO calls, and simply allowed the Criminole defense to choke off the offense.  Unacceptable, and brutal.  And an ongoing coaching/personality issue that I’m not sure any staff changes or players can overcome.  Finally, the defense cracked in the 4th quarter, and didn’t help itself at all with some critical personal fouls and a VERY questionable pass-interference penalty on 3rd down early in FSU’s go-ahead TD drive.

And so, another long winter of discontent begins.  There will certainly be coaching staff changes, recruiting class defections/changes, endless debate about who to blame and why, along with the usual hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth that accompanies all of that.  In my opinion, Napier has effectively lost years 4 and 5 on his contract, and it’s do-or-die in year 3.  And that will come with all of the aforementioned changes along with a BRUTAL schedule that potentially doesn’t lend itself to many wins nor much time to incorporate said changes.  It’s DEFCON 1 time for Napier to himself take action to correct his own flaws and show if he can remake his staff and roster into a better, more cohesive group.  HIs overall record at Florida now stands at 11-14, and 1-7 in rivalry games.  That’s not going to cut it.

Florida is unfortunately in the swing-and-miss cycle of coaches that a handful of traditional powers have had to endure, with some of those schools never recovering.  I’m not close to giving last rites to the football program, but it’s definitely in ICU and needs the right doctor and cure.  Right now I’d say that the next specialist will be hired in around 52 weeks unless there’s a miracle recovery.  It’s a shame, as so much of the struggles past 14 seasons have been due to self-inflicted wounds caused by the head coaches themselves.

I’ll be back in a month or two to discuss the 2024 recruiting class along with the staff changes that are sure to come and their potential impact.  There will be a LOT to unpack on both fronts.

Go Gators!

Where to even begin?  Against the odds, Florida came within a last-second FG of defeating Missouri on the road Saturday night.  It was likely the second-most spirited effort of the season after beating Tennessee at home back in September.  The offense, despite being crippled by injuries to the O-line and then losing Graham Mertz late in the 3rd quarter, did more than enough to win the game.  The Gators outrushed the Tigers even with backups at both tackle spots and at center, as both Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson ran hard and broke some big runs.  Ricky Pearsall made some big catches and had a long TD on a jet sweep, and Tre Wilson scored the first TD on a nice pass route and reception.  Max Brown came into the fray in relief of Mertz and did as well as could be expected.  He ran well, scrambled when needed, and completed a few key passes to extend 2 scoring drives in the 4th quarter to take a 31-30 lead on a Trey Smack FG with 1:36 left on the clock.  However……Napier had the Tiger defense on their heels, but chose to go too conservative the last series before taking the lead  He called 3 straight running plays into a loaded box and did not take at least one shot at a run/pass option with Brown or even a short throw attempt to get one more first down to milk the rest of the clock and all of Missouri’s time outs.  The season was already on the brink, so why not go for the knockout when it presented itself?  Very discouraging game management and another example of his conservative nature taking over when a game is close.  Props to the offensive players for rallying after watching their leader leave the game.

Of course, that left it up to the much-maligned defense.  Somehow, despite giving up another 500 yards, they had made enough plays to hold Missouri to those 30 points.  And then……4th-and-17 happened.  How Austin Armstrong couldn’t have the proper personnel on the field, even when given extra time courtesy of a Missouri time out, is inexcusable.  When the Gators had the opportunity to reach out and take victory, they sat back and instead snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, allowing an easy pass completion for a first down.  It was pretty much a given after that that they would lose.  Why they didn’t rush 5 and have 6 defensive backs to drop into coverage starting just inside the first down marker is baffling.  Instead, they had a LB who didn’t drop back deep enough, secondary players too far beyond the marker, and made it way too easy for Connor Cook to make the play of the game.  The front seven did play much better against the run in the second half after getting gashed for 123 yards by RB Corey Schrader in the first half.  There was shockingly some decent man coverage in the flats and downfield occasionally.  Just too little, too late, and too many breakdowns at key moments.  You would think at game 11 many of these deficiencies could be worked out with experience gained or from coaching adjustments, but……no.

It’s bad enough to lose (again), and watch the defense get pushed around (again), but for Billy Napier and his staff to play things overly conservatively given the desperate state of the game and season, it’s just another troubling sign that he may not be cut out for the SEC.

Now it’s time for the Battle of the Backups at the Swamp, as Florida State comes in undefeated and looking to try and make the College Football Playoff.  They will have to do it without QB Jordan Travis, who had his season and college career ended by a compound fracture in his lower leg, leaving both his foot and FSU’s playoff hopes dangling.  Tate Rodemaker gets the call and has played fairly well in relief this year, but this will be by far a tougher challenge.  The Seminoles will miss Travis’ scrambling ability, so they will rely heavily on RBs Trey Benson and Lawrence Toafili.  Both RBs are also decent targets in the passing game, and I could see them being used often to try and take pressure off of Rodemaker.  WRs Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are big-bodied targets that the Florida DBs will have to be physical with, and TE Jaheim Bell is a transfer from South Carolina that is very familiar with the Gator defense.  The Gators will somehow, someway, need to get enough stops to give the offense as many chances as possible.  That means individual players will have to make some standout plays tackling in space or in coverage, as I don’t see any help coming from the defensive scheme in general at this point.  The defense has to find ways to get pressure on the QB and force him out of his comfort zone and into some mistakes.

The efficiency of the Gator offense and passing game will suffer with the loss of Mertz, and Brown will have to make some plays with his legs and perhaps on some deeper throws to try and offset that loss.  Hopefully OT Austin Barber can go this week, but even if he doesn’t look for the Gators to rely on a power running game as much as possible to manage the clock and allow Brown to settle in and take as much pressure off of him as possible.  Both Johnson and Etienne have to have good games, and one of the TEs or a mystery WR need to contribute something to take the pressure off of Pearsall and Wilson.  FSU’s defense is allowing under 50% pass completions this season, but they have played against a lot of bad QBs and poor passing offenses.  That makes the loss of Mertz even more glaring.  The O-line, in whatever form it has to take, must play well enough to allow the offense to establish some balance and give Brown a chance to make some plays.

The circumstances surrounding this game are certainly more question-filled than anyone could have anticipated.  Can Florida ruin FSU’s run at the CFP?  Can Napier do something to quell the rising tide of discontent from the fan base?  Is Florida’s defense so bad at this point that it doesn’t matter?  Is FSU that much better right now – even without Travis – that it doesn’t matter who plays QB against the Gators?  Can a night game at the Swamp be enough to give Florida a legit chance at pulling off the upset?  It’s a shame both QBs are out, but in a way that will put the spotlight even more on the surrounding casts to see which one is better.  On paper it’s not close right now, especially comparing the defenses.  But rivalry games can have some weird things happen, and the Gators may have to embrace all of that weirdness.  Unfortunately, I think there are just too many injuries and holes in the roster to cover for at this point.

Prediction:

Florida St. 31

Florida 17

The Bataan death march continues, with a humiliating 52-35 defeat at LSU Saturday night.  It’s a helpless feeling for any Gator fan, knowing that no matter what good things may happen, that the defense has deteriorated to the point that it just doesn’t matter.  The players fought and played hard, but many on defense did not play well, and there are just too many fundamental issues that can’t be overcome.

I had the misfortune of watching in person the Gator defense set more dubious school records in futility, allowing 702 yards of offense and all but making the reservations to New York and the Heisman Trophy ceremony for LSU QB Jayden Daniels.  Daniels met no resistance in piling up 371 yards passing and 234 yards rushing – never before done in NCAA history.  Even with getting a few stops in the first half, including an excellent goal-line stand, the defense looked lost way too often, as the same issues that have plagued them all season continued.  There was no pass rush of note from the D-line, and the only pressure came when the Gators blitzed.  It wasn’t as if they were going to stop Daniels from running the ball anyway, so why DC Austin Armstrong didn’t blitz all game long was baffling.  The secondary did what it could considering they had to cover way too long, but there were still too many wide open receivers on busted coverages, along with some weak tackling.  How this group has completely fallen apart can’t be explained away simply by injuries to the LB corps.  The held-over Patrick Toney scheme is terrible, and needs to be completely scrapped.  DC Austin Armstrong may be in way over his head and too inexperienced, and there are some serious issues with some position coaches.  Just too many issues to cover in one review, and a bad look for Billy Napier, who is ultimately responsible for everything.  This is the stuff that causes dissention in the locker room, and I can only hope the staff can prevent the offense and defense from getting after each other.

Florida’s offense played well enough, gamely trying to stay with LSU despite knowing they would have to score almost every time they had the ball.  They racked up over 400 yards, including over 150 on the ground, and easily had more time-of-possession.  And it wasn’t nearly enough.  Graham Mertz was solid, and played tough while being pressured again too often.  Both Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne ran the ball well and helped out as safety-valve receivers.  Tre Wilson and Ricky Pearsall made some big plays with runs after the catch.  And it wasn’t nearly enough.  The play of the game for the offense and the entire team was the officials overturning the long completion to Kahleil Jackson late in the 3rd quarter, thwarting a promising scoring drive and allowing LSU to extend it’s then 3 point lead to 10.  It was a terrible call, and forced Florida into a mostly passing game, offsetting the balance it was able to use up until then.  The O-line played well enough, despite LT Austin Barber repeatedly leaving the game with shoulder and leg injuries and eventually leaving for good in the 3rd quarter.  They played with pace and tempo more often than in any previous game, and it worked well.

Special Teams played well.  The kick and punt coverage was excellent, and punter Jeremy Crawshaw hit some big kicks to pin LSU down – like it mattered.  They even forced a turnover on a high kickoff that was fumbled by a Tiger return man.  No issues in this game, which is a rarity.

Next up is another very tough opponent in the Missouri Tigers, and the Gators are on the road again in Columbia.  Missouri has played well this year, coming in with a record of 8-2 with the losses by 10 points at LSU and 9 points at Georgia.  Simple extrapolation compared to Florida’s results against those same opponents tells you that this is going to be an extremely difficult game to win – especially away from home.

Missouri is led on offense by QB Brady Cook.  Cook is another mobile QB, which has given the Gator defense fits all season.  RB Cody Schrader is a strong runner and by far the leading rusher in terms of carries and yards, piling up over 1,100 yards already this season.  Cook has two excellent WR targets in Luther Burden and Theo Wease, who both are big-play threats.  Florida has already faced some very good offenses and shouldn’t be surprised by anything the Tigers show on Saturday night.  But based on what they haven’t been able to do yet all season, this likely turns into another ugly performance.  The LB corps is in tatters, and unless Armstrong simply starts to blitz early and often to try and disrupt the Tigers and steal a few possessions, I don’t see them doing enough to give the offense enough chances to win.  Opposing QBs have had way too much time to read the field or simply take off and run.

Florida’s offense again will need to find some consistent running room for Etienne and Johnson in order to take time off the clock and keep the defense off the field.  Mertz again will have to be efficient in the passing game, as the Gators can’t afford too many short possessions and likely will need to score at least 30 points.  Missouri’s defense will make that harder than LSU did, though.  They have a good run defense led by former Florida LB Ty’ron Hopper, but have had some rough games against the pass.  Once again, Pearsall and Wilson have to make plays, but the TEs need to have more of an impact than they have the last two games.  Arlis Boardingham needs to be targeted more often.  It’s extremely frustrating that no other receiver has become a consistent threat in order to take the pressure off the main two guys and also force the defense to defend more of the field.

At this point, perhaps Missouri takes the Gators lightly after watching film on them.  Maybe somehow Florida gets out to an early lead and tries to hold on for an upset.  Perhaps the Tigers have a letdown of sorts after playing Georgia and Tennessee in consecutive weeks.  It’s sad to say it, but it may be Florida’s best chance.  I hope the entire defensive scheme is scrapped after the season, but it’s still possible to make some serious changes these last 2 weeks to maybe surprise the opponents enough to maybe steal a win.  Sadly, Napier seems too stubborn to allow it, though, and this turns into another ugly loss.

Prediction:

Missouri 38

Florida 20

Well, all of my worst fears were realized on Saturday, as the Gators played down to the level of Arkansas and gave away the game, a 39-36 overtime loss that now endangers their chances of even becoming bowl-eligible this season.  It’s obvious the off week really benefited the Razorbacks, but Florida’s coaching staff did the players no favors in all 3 phases of the game, and disappointed once again.  Billy Napier needs to make some serious fixes this offseason.

Where to begin?  The offense played well early and late, but only when the situation dictated an aggressive approach and Napier was forced into it.  There were some explosive plays from RB Trevor Etienne and WR Tre Wilson, but they were still underutilized.  After falling behind early 14-0 in the 1st quarter, the offense rallied to tie the game, but then Napier reverted back to the same risk-averse scheme that has caused so many issues throughout 2023.  When Arkansas was allowed to move the ball in the 2nd half by a terrible Gator defense, he then loosened the reins again to allow Florida to rally back.  Graham Mertz wasn’t as accurate as usual, but held things together under some pressure situations and came through.  The lack of throws to the TEs and the too-often short throws at or behind the LOS returned, and did more to slow the offense than anything the Razorbacks did on defense.  Arkansas struggled all afternoon when the Gators spread them out and pushed the ball downfield, but it didn’t happen consistently enough……again.

Speaking of defense, Florida was again defenseless in the 2nd half after a solid 1st half.  Arkansas scored 17 points by halftime, but 7 were on a fumble return and 7 on the opening drive, after which the defense settled in and played reasonably well.  Then the 2nd half came, and some combination of Napier and DC Austin Armstrong took a lot stupid pills.  Gone was the 4-man D-line, replaced by a 3-man front that did nothing.  After KJ Jefferson started to hurt the Gators with QB runs, no spy was ever deployed to counter it, and Arkansas simply rode that attack to success in the 4th quarter and overtime.  Despite some pass breakups and an interception, the secondary allowed too many easy 3rd down completions to extend drives, and too often receivers were uncovered.  It’s this kind of coaching malfeasance that is so frustrating for Gator Nation to witness.  I’m really starting to wonder if Napier will ever check his ego to correct some foundational issues – the Patrick Toney defense he forced Armstrong to use has to be completely scrapped, and the position coaching of the LB corps needs a major shakeup and improvement.

Once again, there was an inexcusable special teams gaffe.  When Mertz had driven the Gators down for a chance at the game-winning FG in regulation, the FG unit sprinted onto the field instead of allowing Mertz to spike the ball.  If the clock hadn’t already stopped for a moment for a first down, the subsequent illegal substitution penalty would have led to a 10 second runoff, and there wouldn’t have even been an attempt, which Trey Smack unfortunately missed from 5 yards farther away.  This type of mistake has been far too common all season, and if Napier doesn’t have the awareness to get rid of the coaching-by-committee approach to special teams, he’s just providing more ammunition for his naysayers.

Just an ugly loss all around, and more self-inflicted damage Napier has brought on himself.

Florida now enters the last 3 games of the season needing a win against one of 3 Top 20 teams to become bowl-eligible, with the next 2 games on the road.  Up next is a trip to Baton Rouge to face LSU.  The Tigers are coming off of a tough road loss at Alabama in which they played well for 40 minutes, but then were pushed around as the Tide closed them out with a power running game and 3 straight TDs in a 42-28 loss.  To make matters worse for the Tigers, QB Jayden Daniels suffered a concussion and may not play against Florida.  At this point, though, it may not matter, as the Gator defense has collapsed recently.  LSU has a good backup QB in Garrett Nussmeier who, while nowhere near the running threat Daniels is, is still a capable passer and will carve up the Gator secondary if given time to throw.  WR Malik Nabors is having a monster season, Brian Thomas isn’t far behind, and Mason Taylor is a big-time target at TE.  RB Logan Diggs is solid, and I’m sure will be leaned on if Daniels can’t play.  Slowing this offense down is very unlikely, as Florida is now dealing with many key injuries on defense.  Shemar James was already out for the season after the Georgia game, and now LB Jack Pyburn is gone with a torn ACL.  The LB corps simply isn’t talented or physical enough to compete against legit SEC teams.  The D-line still doesn’t generate much pressure except for Princely Umanmielen, and the secondary still doesn’t generate turnovers.  Florida has caused only 6 turnovers in 9 games, continuing a disturbing trend that started in 2020 where the defense simply can’t seem to play physically or aggressively enough.  Armstrong has nothing to lose, and he really needs to make some significant schematic changes to at least give his players a better chance of success the rest of this season……if he’s allowed to.

The Gator offense has actually found some footing recently, but Napier has to allow it to continue.  He may have no choice if LSU is scoring early and often.  Etienne needs to get the majority of touches at RB.  Wilson is really coming on at WR to complement Ricky Pearsall.  The TEs need to become a factor again this week after being MIA against Arkansas for some unknown reason.  LSU is dealing with serious issues on defense as well, and Florida should be able to exploit many of them.  The Tigers are allowing over 400 yards a game, 171 of which are on the ground.  Napier wants to establish a running game, and if the offense can’t do it this week, then they are in serious trouble.  If the O-line can keep Mertz upright, he’s shown at this point he can make enough plays to move the ball and score points.  The poor play at RT hasn’t been resolved, however, and I can only hope Mertz stays healthy enough to make it through the next 3 weeks.  He’s already had way too many chances to show his toughness.  The only hope is attacking for a full 4 quarters.

It will be a night game in Death Valley, always a very tough venue for any opponent.  The coaching staff is going to have to swing for the fences with some major changes to steal a huge upset win.  I still don’t see Florida being able to stay close for 4 quarters – especially on the road – no matter who plays at QB for LSU.  Even with LSU’s defense having it’s own struggles, this is looking like another ugly loss as Florida continues it’s skid towards a losing season.  Sad days, indeed.

Prediction:

LSU 41

Florida 20

Wash, rinse, repeat.  Florida is no closer to Georgia right now than it was the previous 2 seasons, getting pushed around (again) in an embarrassing 43-20 blowout loss.  Every issue the Gators have had on either offense, defense, or special teams was magnified against the Bulldogs.  I wasn’t one of the delusional fans who thought there was more than a remote chance at an upset win, and sadly I was right.

After a terrific opening possession that led to a TD pass from Graham Mertz to Tre Wilson, the offense stalled out and was inept until garbage time.  Florida managed only the same amount of total yardage after that initial drive until the 4th quarter when the game was out of hand.  The offensive line was brutally bad, getting manhandled all afternoon and endangering the health of Mertz with terrible pass-blocking.  Once again, after the first well-scripted series, the rest of the game was a disjointed mess.  Billy Napier didn’t help the cause at all with his rendition of the infamous 1976 “4th-and-dumb” play call by Doug Dickey.  Why on 4th down with less than a yard to gain he tried the SAME play that they had run in just their previous game against South Carolina – the wildcat formation with Trevor Etienne trying to throw a flat pass – was beyond me.  Just line up 5-wide, and allow your struggling O-line to only have to block some combination of 6 DL/LB and run a simple QB sneak with Mertz, who is big and strong enough to get the first down.  That play gave Georgia all of the momentum, as they extended the lead to 17-7 immediately after and rolled from there.  Finally, why the TEs were ignored in the passing game is a mystery, and really impacted the effectiveness of the offense.  Napier really needs to recuse himself of any playcalling and hire a legit OC, as he simply lacks any feel for situational football and can’t seem to provide any continuous flow as a game progresses.

Florida’s defense wasn’t much better, giving up over 500 yards and never establishing the LOS.  The run defense again was gashed for multiple big plays, there was rarely any pass rush of note, and the secondary blew assignments, tackled poorly, and again showed an alarming lack of ball-awareness when given opportunities to defend the pass.  Other than that – “nothing to see here……move along, please”.  The defense never had any control of the game, and only a goal-line stand that held the Bulldogs to a FG on their opening possession stemmed the tide of their troubles.  Georgia ran and passed at will, rolling up over 500 yards of offense.  The Gators never really pressured Carson Beck, allowing him all the time he needed to pick apart a shaky Florida secondary.  It’s painfully obvious at this point that Napier needs to completely scrap the Patrick Toney defense he kept from the 2022 season, as it simply doesn’t work against legit SEC and Top 25 competition.  Princely Umanmielen was one of the precious few defenders that played well, playing perhaps his best game of the season from the Buck position.  To add injury to insult, Shemar James incurred an injury in pre-game warmups on the freshly resodded field.  He put a brace on his knee and gave it his best effort until limping off of the field in the second half with what turned out to be a season-ending injury – a dislocated kneecap requiring immediate surgery.   The LB and secondary play were both dreadful, as they allowed Georgia multiple chunk plays and never could play tight coverage.  This unit seems to be regressing as the season goes on, and must reverse it’s fortunes for the team to have a chance of success the rest of 2023.

Special teams again reared it’s ugly head, allowing a blocked punt due to a complete breakdown of blocking scheme, which just continued the momentum that Georgia had established in the 2nd quarter.  Just another in a LONG list of reasons Napier has to rethink his way of handling that unit.  It’s time for one voice in that room, and no more coaching-by-committee.  The “Gamechangers” were certainly that, all right.

Overall just a dispiriting effort and further proof there are still serious fundamental issues with both the coaching staff and the schemes being employed.  The team continued to play hard for 4 quarters, but not necessarily well, or smartly.  It will be a few more painful years before Florida approaches the level of talent it needs, and I can only hope that by then the coaching issues are resolved as well. 

The Gators return home for the first time in 4 weeks for a must-win game against Arkansas.  The Razorbacks come into this game off a bye week, which was serendipitous for them given how their season hit rock-bottom in their Homecoming loss to Mississippi St.  They fired their OC after a horrific 7-3 losing performance that had the home fans booing them off the field.  They were fortunate to have the extra time to try and turn things around.  What’s strange is that they have played well in a lot of close losses against one of the toughest schedules in the country, yet come inot this game on a 6-game losing streak.  Head Coach Sam Pittman always has his team ready to play for 60 minutes and to play hard – they just haven’t played well on offense.

The Razorback offense is led by QB KJ Jefferson, a huge guy who is a load to bring down.  That being said, he’s not that elusive of a runner and struggles mightily to complete passes when forced to move in the pocket.  Despite Pittman being one of the best O-line coaches in the nation, their running game has been abysmal, averaging only 109 yards per game and forcing Jefferson into too many must-pass scenarios.  Of course, South Carolina was doing even worse, and the Gator defense then made them look great.  In fact, the Gator defense is allowing well over 400 yards per game against it’s SEC opponents, and that gives me pause as to how effective they can be the rest of the season.  Arkansas’ main RB is AJ Green, who is averaging 6 yards per carry, but has only 42 attempts.  Theor best RB from 2022 – Rocket Sanders – may be back this week in limited action.  Jefferson is the main ball carrier by default – one of the reasons their OC was let go in-season.  Their top WR is Andrew Armstrong, who’s 42 catches is more than double the total of anyone else.  Normally it would be obvious how to defend and stop this offense – keep Jefferson in the pocket, simply get a stalemate at the LOS, and concentrate the pass coverage on Armstrong.  But with the firing of the OC and the week off, I would not be surprised to see enough wrinkles in the offense that allow the Hogs to keep this game close into the 4th quarter, like most of their games.  The loss of Shemar James creates a huge hole for the Gator defense that I’m afraid they can’t adequately fill.  Mannie Nunnery and true freshman Jaden Robinson will have to somehow cover for the loss, likely in situational roles.  The entire defense has to show up and play inspired football.

Florida’s offense will need to find balance, and will be tested by a good Razorback defense that has managed to hold up well despite having to repeatedly cover for the inept offense.  Since the O-line is such a mess right now in pass-protection, it looks like we may see a reversion back to the conservative, short passing game, and attempting to establish a more consistent running game to keep the struggling defense off the field.  Not the best situation at this point, but it may be the only option to get a win this week.  RBs Trevor Etienne and Montell Johnson looked good against Georgia, and will need to be leaders this week.  Ricky Pearsall along with Wilson again will be the main passing targets.  I’m hoping the TE position reappears after being basically ignored last week, to the detriment of the offense.

Once again, another massive game for Napier and the Gators, who need this win to become bowl-eligible.  The remainder of the schedule after this week features 3 teams in the Top 15 of the BCS rankings, the next two being on the road.  If the Gators lose this one, most if not all of any momentum and positive vibes created in the first half of the season are lost, and the possibility of a losing record is suddenly staring the team in the face.  No doubt they will be feeling extra pressure this week, and that may not bode well for the performance of such a young team.  I’m afraid this one might come down to the last possession of the game, and neither the Florida offense or defense gives me comfort in that scenario.

Prediction:

Florida 23

Arkansas 20

Florida now enters the difficult part of it’s schedule, starting with the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville.  The last 5 games include 4 Top 20 and 2 Top 5 opponents.  We’re about to see how much this team has either truly improved so far to get to a 5-2 record and within 1 win of becoming bowl-eligible, or if it’s more fool’s gold earned by piling up wins against mostly weaker teams.

This week’s game will be a major challenge, as Georgia comes in playing it’s best football after some struggles early in the season.  The Bulldogs are led by QB Carson Beck, who, while not flashy, has put together a very good season as a first-year starter by playing efficiently and not turning the ball over.  RB Daijun Edwards has come on strong the past month and has to to be slowed down considerably, or else it will be another long afternoon away from the Swamp for the Gator defense.  The run defense has been horrific lately, allowing too many easy running lanes combined with poor tackling.  The defensive staff really needs to get after the players to show more toughness and also play with better technique.  Brock Bowers, UGA’s All-American TE, is out after ankle surgery, which will keep him out for at least a month.  He’s one of the best playmakers in college football, and will be missed by Georgia’s offense.  However, Oscar Delp is a more than capable replacement, and the Gator defense has no reason to relax.  WRs Dominic Lovett (a transfer from Missouri) and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint are excellent players, and the secondary needs to do a much better job of limiting long completions.  Georgia’s offense isn’t as explosive as the previous 2 seasons and will miss Bowers to an extent, but still has a physical O-line and enough talent at the skill positions to be dangerous.

Florida’s offense will face it’s toughest challenge of the season this week.  Georgia again has an excellent defense, despite the loss of more than a dozen players to the NFL over the past 2 drafts.  This group may not have the uber-elite playmakers of recent vintage, but still plays tough, physical football and tackles well.  The Gator O-line has to somehow get enough stalemates at the LOS to allow it’s skill players enough chances to make plays in space and also keep Graham Mertz upright, or this one will get ugly.  Mertz has taken way too much punishment the past few games, and won’t last the season if it continues.  Here’s hoping the off week helps get Kingsley Eguakun back at center and that the rotations at the other positions are finally settled.  I’m not expecting the running game to have consistent success the entire game, but it must generate some first downs to provide some balance and give the passing game a fair chance.  It will be very interesting to see if Billy Napier continues with the game plan employed at South Carolina that utilizes the entire field and plays aggressively, or if he goes back into a shell with risk-averse playcalling.  This team’s best chance is for the offense to stay aggressive the rest of the season, no matter the outcome.  

Special teams almost always contribute to an upset win, and Florida’s group hopefully finds a way to make a big play or two in the return game to help.  After Trevor Etienne made such an impact on kickoff returns the second half of last season, the return game has been mostly absent in 2023.  Trey Smack has been terrific as the FG kicker since taking over in the Tennessee game, and he’ll need to continue to take advantage of every opportunity he’s given.  Georgia has it’s own good placekicker in Peyton Woodring, and Mehki Mews is one of the best kick returners in the SEC.  The Gator coverage units have been very good so far, and that will have to continue – this team isn’t good enough to overcome any serious lapses in coverage leading to easy scores by the Bulldogs.

This game will be used as a measuring stick of whether Napier’s program is showing real improvement in year 2.  It may still end up as a loss, and perhaps the score isn’t terribly close, but how all 3 phases of the game look could be crucial to his long-term rebuilding project……and also to recruits.  He has an excellent recruiting class lined up right now, but it will be hard to keep it together if the next 5 games aren’t at least competitive.

There’s always a chance for an upset in a rivalry game, but it will take Florida’s best effort combined with some mistakes from Georgia for that to happen.  The Gators likely can’t come from behind against the Bulldogs, so they’ll have to find a way to get an early lead and try to hold on.  As of right now, Florida is likely still too young and lacks the physicality and depth necessary to make it happen.

Prediction:

Georgia 35

Florida 17

In just another example of proof a Multiverse exists, Florida actually exhibited an offense that looked like it came from the 21st century and came away with a thrilling 41-39 win at South Carolina.  I can only hope Billy Napier finally has had an epiphany of sorts and realized he wouldn’t be long for his current job unless he ditched his ultra risk-averse philosophy and allowed his offense to play aggressively for an entire game.

The Gator offense was a revelation, consistently throwing the ball to all levels of the field and challenging the defense to cover in space.  And, not surprisingly, they couldn’t, and Florida’s playmakers could actually make plays in 1-on-1 matchups.  It appears that some Miracle-Gro was applied to the route shrub and it became a tree – for at least one game.  Ricky Pearsall had a huge game with some clutch catches and the game-winning TD, Kahliel Jackson had a huge reception and got his own TD later in the same 2nd-quarter drive, and Eugene Wilson made some great runs on jet sweeps and also had the key reception from the deflection off of Pearsall’s hands on the winning drive.  TE Arlis Boardingham again came up big, catching a TD to close the score to 37-34, and saving the game with his 4th-down reception and run to keep that last drive alive.  Even TE Hayden Hansen had a few 1st-down receptions and the 2-point conversion catch.  When Florida did run the ball, Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne combined for over 100 yards, providing the balance needed with such a pass-heavy attack.  All this despite Graham Mertz getting punished behind a shaky O-line.  Mertz has definitely shown he’s tough……and been forced to way too often.  The OL have to improve if he’s to survive the rest of the season, and give the Gators any hope of winning some games.

Florida’s defense, sadly, was as bad as the offense was good.  I don’t know what’s happened to the run defense recently, but they have been gashed repeatedly and the tackling has been abysmal.  I mean, looking like 2022 all over again.  I was incredibly frustrated that DC Austin Armstrong didn’t employ a spy against Carolina QB Spencer Rattler, and it almost cost the Gators the game.  Rattler continually extended drives by running for first downs and extending drives.  This kind of defense has to be addressed in the off week – at all 3 levels – including some possible schematic changes.  The D-line played a little better than the numbers suggest, as they were constantly held by the Lamecock OL.  They were able to get occasional penetration into the backfield and some pressure on Rattler, but there usually was no LB to clean things up where there should have been.  It’s pretty much Shemar James and a cast of thousands at LB right now, which is a disappointment.  The secondary didn’t do itself any favors, either, allowing too many easy catches and yards after the catch as well.  The tackling by the back seven was horrific – both the technique and effort were sorely lacking.  To their credit, the defense did hold up on Carolina’s final 2 possessions, getting pressure on the QB and making the game-sealing interception.  This group is regressing, though, and has to right the ship.

Props again to Trey Smack, who made 4 of 5 FG attempts, including a 54-yarder to close out the first half and give the Gators a 24-21 lead.  His emergence has filled what was a huge deficiency and helped steady the special teams overall.  Every one of his made kicks was needed, and he’ll be relied upon again with the upcoming schedule.

This was a massive win for Napier and the entire program.  Yes, the opponent wasn’t great, but Carolina was coming off of a bye week, made some serious personnel changes that hadn’t been seen on film, and have played pretty well against other good opponents.  I can only hope Napier uses the same aggressive approach with the offense the rest of the way, no matter the results.  The balance of the schedule is much more difficult, with 4 Top 10 and 2 Top 5 opponents left to play.  If you’re gonna go to battle against those kinds of teams, go in with everything you have and give your team it’s best chance.  This win will provide a much-needed shot of confidence to the players.  They’ll need the off-week, as many guys have been playing hurt for weeks due to the lack of both quality depth and experience on the roster.  I’ll be back next week with my preview of Florida vs. the #1 Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville.