It’s back to work for the Gators, as they welcome the UCF Knights to the Swamp after a bye week. The win over Mississippi St. did little to assuage the critics of Billy Napier and his entire program, and the weekly execution vigil restarts with the Sword of Damocles ready to fall at any moment.
Florida’s offense needs to be ready to score early and often. UCF’s defense was exposed (again) by a team with a pulse in Colorado, getting roasted for 48 points in a blowout home loss last week. I’m sure Napier will wish to play his usual “complimentary football” and control the clock with the running game, but that likely won’t be enough as the Gator defense has shown no inclination to actually play it. Yes, balance is needed, but the Gator QBs have to attack a weak secondary and allow it’s receivers to make plays downfield. WRs Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike have been steady, but I hope Aiden Mizell has finally found his footing after a breakout performance at MSU and contributes more explosive plays. The TEs have been missing for much of 2024, and they need to get involved. Napier says he will “stick to the plan” regarding the QB rotation – whatever that means. Allegedly there were good practices and “improvement” by the O-line during the bye week, but I remain skeptical. The playcalling needs to stay aggressive for 60 minutes.
The Florida defense had better be ready to do something it hasn’t all season – at least slow down an opponent’s running game. UCF comes in with one of the best rushing attacks in the country (albeit against some weaker competition), with RB RJ Harvey leading the way. He’s a tough runner with some power and decent speed, and has to be contained. QB KJ Jefferson transferred to UCF from Arkansas, and is no stranger to the Gators. He led an improbable upset win last season at the Swamp, mostly by running wild in the second half and overtime. Maybe……maybe this time around the defensive coordinator will learn to spy him and force him to play more as a pocket passer, where he struggles. UCF’s offense under Gus Malzahn is his usual recipe – pound the run, including a generous number of carries by the QB, and then try to either hit a long pass over the top or slip a RB out into the flat or on a wheel route isolated on a LB. It’s not complicated, but apparently even simplicity is often too hard to comprehend for Florida’s run of crap coordinators. Kobe Hudson is the Knights’ big-play WR, so I expect Jason Marshall to be covering him all evening. Jefferson will struggle in must-pass situations, and that’s where the defense can actually get the ball back for the offense on occasion.
Make no mistake – this is UCF’s biggest game of the season, despite being fortunate to fall into a conference upgrade to the Big 12. Malzahn will treat this game like it’s the Super Bowl for them, and he’ll throw everything into the game plan. It’s going to be interesting to see how many Knight “fans” are in the Swamp for this one. Sadly, I expect a good turnout considering the poor play of the Gators turning off it’s fan base and UCF “fans” buying up secondary market tickets anywhere they can because of the close proximity of Orlando to Gainesville.
Napier had better find a way to show some fire and have his team play with some urgency, or else this will be the last of a long line of embarrassments that leads to his firing. I’m expecting a wild, unpredictable ebb-and-flow of emotions and momentum during the game, and a high-scoring affair. This game could wind up looking a lot like last year’s game at South Carolina, where Napier was forced by the opponent into a shootout. Many Gator fans are resigned to a loss, but I’m gonna go down in flames by predicting a close win and another stay of execution for Napier until perhaps Florida gets run out of the stadium next week at Tennessee.
Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1
Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 0 (loss), DEFCON 1 or 2 (win)
Prediction:
Florida 38
UCF 35