“It’s put up or shut up time”. That seems to be the consensus of Gator Nation heading into this season. Billy Napier has a roster of his players, a coaching staff comprised of people he trusts, and the most talent and depth entering a season during his tenure. Florida ended 2024 with four consecutive wins and positive momentum entering the offseason for the first time since 2019. It took the desperation of a 4-5 record, the near-mutiny of the defensive players, and the dreaded “vote of confidence” from the AD, to finally abort the Austin Armstrong Error of defense and force Napier to put an adult in charge (Ron Roberts). The unfortunate season-ending injury to QB Graham Mertz made DJ Lagway the starter by default, and that in turn injected some life and big-play capability into the offense……finally. It’s a shame it takes near catastrophic results to get Napier to finally make necessary changes, but that seems to be his modus operandi – to a fault. All that being said, the changes did take place, and the Gators benefitted markedly. The last two wins of 2024 came against the worst F$U team since 1973 and a bowl opponent in Tulane that was gutted by portal defections, but the wins over LSU and Ole Miss were legit.
The offseason brought more coaching turmoil, as there was one significant loss within the coaching staff – secondary coach Will Harris having a falling out with Napier and moving on to Miami. That did not go over well with some inside and outside the program. That, along with Armstrong’s welcomed departure, resulted in new hires Vinnie Sunseri, Robert Bala, and Deron Wilson, who all have much to prove. Florida’s roster also suffered some important losses due to graduation or portal departures. On defense, DBs Jason Marshall and Trikweze Bridges, DT Cam Jackson, Edge rushers Jack Pyburn and TJ Searcy, and LB Shemar James all either started or were key rotation pieces, and will be missed. On offense, Mertz, RB Montrell Johnson, WRs Chimere Dike and Elijhah Badger, and OT Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson were solid starters and leave behind a lot of production to replace. The recruiting class was solid, despite Florida’s current decision to place most of it’s financial resources towards retention of personnel ahead of going after even a handful of elite portal players – we shall see if that proves to be successful.
Napier now has to face the burden of expectations for Florida Football and an impatient fan base that’s grown weary of mediocrity and self-inflicted losses due to poor coaching. There are no more excuses left for his supporters – it’s time to prove he’s capable of winning big games against an always-tough SEC schedule and elevate the program back to contending for the SEC Championship and/or a Playoff appearance. That, or time to move on to a new regime. I’m not confident in his ability to handle the pressure from outside or improving his in-game decision-making and injecting some urgency and pace into his offense. We’re about to find out if he’s self-aware and flexible enough to do so.
Offense
2024 was another mixed bag of successes and failures for the Gator offense. The start of the season was brutal, with embarrassing home losses to Miami and Texas A&M where Napier’s scheme was exposed – again – as too simple and easy to diagnose. Even the opposing defensive coordinators said as much, adding fuel to the raging fire of criticism. Mertz was efficient, but not effective. Again, there were few deep shots to loosen the coverage, and opponents loaded the box to slow the running game. It took the Mertz injury and the big-play ability of Lagway to finally lend balance to the attack, and the results after were more like an offense could and should look like in the 21st century. Napier again is saying he’s the main playcaller, with (allegedly) more help from Russ Callaway, but will the scheme fully utilize the skill player’s abilities or not? Any real chance for success in 2025 will rely on it.
The QB position is solely in possession of Lagway. He proved in the last half of 2024 that he was capable of leading the offense against SEC competition, and could threaten a defense at all 3 levels. This despite a troubling hamstring injury suffered against Georgia. He showed toughness and poise while playing through it, and the team responded. That being said……the news on the injury front for Lagway leads to more disclaimers than you’ll read at the bottom of a prescription drug advertisement going into the start of Fall practice and the regular season. He did not throw throughout Spring practice, was limited over the summer trying to rehab, and now is hobbled by a “calf strain”. While his shoulder seems to be recovering, he is a capable runner, and if he’s limited by the calf injury for a while this will hurt his effectiveness. Lagway is a great talent, but he still needs to show improvement in his reads and also in his accuracy – especially in the intermediate zone. The lack of reps with his WRs likely means getting timing down in live action the first 2 games of the season – far from the best scenario. Florida did well in acquiring Harrison Bailey through the portal as QB2. He’s a 6th-year senior, with starting experience at both Tennessee and Louisville. He received some excellent coaching from Jeff Brohm while playing for the Cardinals. He has some mobility and a good arm, both of which he showed in Louisville’s bowl game and then in the Orange and Blue game, where he received extended snaps. Aidan Warner returns as QB3, and – respectfully – here’s hoping that he’s not needed, or else the season is toast.
The running back room is again solid, and likely one of the better units in the SEC. Jaden Baugh grabbed the starting role in 2024 after Johnson incurred some injuries – he showed power and speed and also some pass-catching ability. Ja’Kobi Jackson came on as a solid RB2 and proved he could closely match Baugh’s production. Treyaun Webb was in line for RB3, but had to undergo surgery on his hamstring this fall, so he’s likely a non-contributor for most of this season. There are some promising young players in redshirt freshman KD Daniels and true freshmen Byron Louis, Duke Clark, and Chad Gasper. The young players have game-breaking abilities, but of course need to show they can pick up basic pass protection and exhibit ball security in order to earn live reps. Fortunately, coach Jabbar Juluke has proven to be an excellent recruiter and developer of his players, so look for solid production from this group. As always, Napier’s offense will rely on the running game to lead the way by controlling the clock and protecting his QB.
The WR position is filled with talent and speed, but sorely lacking in experience and production. Dike and Badger have moved on to the NFL, leaving huge holes to fill in the rotation. 3rd year receivers Tre Wilson (coming off a season shortened by hip surgery) and Aidan Mizell have to step up their play. J. Michael Sturdivant is a 5th-year senior transfer from UCLA with NFL size and speed who will be an immediate starter. There is an excellent group of young players in sophomores TJ Abrams and Tank Hawkins, along with one of the top freshman classes in the country that includes Dallas Wilson, Naeshaun Montgomery, and legacy Vernell Brown III. Wilson is an elite player who likely works his way into the starting lineup as soon as he (hopefully) shakes off a broken bone in his foot incurred over the summer. Some subset of these guys have to elevate the passing game immediately, and it may very well be some of the newer players seeing significant roles throughout the season. Coach Billy Gonzales has a lot of work to do to get this unit contributing early and often.
The TE room once again is the subject of much debate. Will they ever become enough of a threat in the passing game to keep defenses honest, or will they continue to be mostly run blockers with the occasional reception? Hayden Hansen is the clear TE1, an excellent blocker who IMO has been underutilized as a receiver – especially in the red zone. Tony Livingston showed some promise late in 2024 as more of a receiving threat, while Amir Jackson is an elite athlete who redshirted as a freshman and hopefully earns some meaningful snaps this fall. Coach Callaway has to get these guys more incorporated into the pass game. Perhaps……maybe……Napier actually allows him more input into the playcalling this season.
Finally we come to the offensive line. Surprisingly, this unit showed significant improvement the second half of 2024, as playing positions were finally sorted out and Lagway’s presence actually forced defenses out of stacking the box every down. This group is by far the best overall collection of players that Napier and coaches Rob Sale and Jonathan Decoster have had at Florida, and they are expected to be one of the better units in the SEC this season. They’ll need to be, as expectations for Lagway and the talented skill position players – along with growing impatience from Gator Nation to see an effective and exciting offense for the first time since 2020 – are very high. The line is anchored by center Jake Slaughter, who developed into an All-American last season. LT Austin Barber decided to bypass the Draft and returns as one of the better tackles in the SEC and will protect the QB’s blind side. Damieon George found a home at guard and started to fulfill his potential, especially in the running game. Knijeah Harris and Roderick Kearney will both be in the guard rotation, and either could start. The RT position is a battle between Bryce Lovett and Devon Manuel, with Lovett likely getting the starting nod. There is actually some quality depth along the O-Line for the first time in Napier’s tenure, and expect to see Fletcher Westphal, Kam Waites, and Caden Jones manning multiple positions throughout the season. It’s been a slow process by the OL coaches to get to this point – it has to pay off in 2025. The offense has not shown consistency nor effectiveness against the elite teams Florida plays each year, and is far overdue to change that.
Defense
After 2 horrific seasons in 2022 and 2023, I hoped 2024 would finally show significant improvement. Well…..it didn’t, until Napier finally had his hand forced by a losing record and the threat of losing his own job. He finally jettisoned the Boy Blunder, Armstrong, and handed the reins to an adult with actual experience in the SEC. Roberts immediately scrapped the overly complex, read-and-react scheme that was exploited for 2 1/2 years and became a national joke. He installed a simplified, attacking scheme, and – lo and behold – Florida started to look like a competent defense that actually utilized the talent and athleticism on the roster. Despite a few critical losses to graduation, the portal, and the NFL Draft, the Gators return many of the 2-deep on defense, and are poised to show continued improvement in 2025.
The defensive line led the turnaround in 2024, but has to overcome the loss of DT Jackson to the NFL and Edge rushers Pyburn, Searcy, and Kelby Collins (all through the portal). The DT rotation is led by Caleb Banks, who flashed all-SEC form last season and surprised many by forgoing the Draft and returning to Gainesville. This unit should be bolstered by the return of Jamari Lyons, who missed all of 2024 with a broken ankle, and Brendan Bett (portal transfer from Baylor). However, depth and experience are lacking, and freshmen Michael Boireau and Joseph Mbatchou will be forced into action. There’s enough talent within this group to compete, but it cannot suffer many injuries. The DE/Edge group hopes to offset the portal losses with a lot of returning talent, albeit young and lacking in experience. Tyreak Sapp is the unquestioned leader, really coming on after the coaching coup and performing as one of the best in the SEC at both setting the edge against the run and rushing the passer. LJ McCray and George Gumbs are expected to make a jump with a year of experience, while Kamran James needs to bounce back from a disappointing sophomore season. Kofi Asare is a 4th-year junior transfer from UMass with the physical traits, but unproven against top-tier competition. Finally, true freshman Jayden Woods was one of the top recruits in the country and has impressed in practice and is already pushing for some early playing time.
The LB corps is similar to the RB room in that it has a lot of talent, but is very young. The loss of James and his leadership will be hard to replace, but this group has the potential to surprise in a big way if they can build upon last season. Sophomores Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles are elite athletes and already look the part physically – both showed 3-down potential against the run and in coverage. Pup Howard and Jaden Robinson are experienced and good leaders – both just need to stay healthy. Freshman Ty Jackson has already received praise from the coaches for showing natural instincts for the position, and likely gets more snaps as the season progresses. This is probably the best group of LBs at Florida since 2016. Coach Roberts is also the LB position coach and has a lot to work with, but there’s not much depth.
The secondary finally has the experience and depth needed to compete in the SEC. The only question is, will the key players actually stay healthy? Like the rest of the defense, this group came on the second half of 2024 and actually started to make some big plays and generate turnovers. It will be interesting to see how the dynamic of coaching turnover – Harris leaving and Sunseri and Wilson arriving – affects this group. The early returns from the players has been good, but the proof will come when the actual games are played. At cornerback, Devin Moore is the unquestioned leader, but hasn’t made it through a full season healthy. Dijon Johnson, Cormani McClain, and Aaron Gates are all capable players and comprise a solid rotation. Gates is coming off of late-season knee surgery and hopefully is close to 100% by mid-September. True freshman and legacy Ben Hanks III has impressed in fall camp, and freshmen J’vari Flowers and Onis Konanbanny are highly regarded. All could see increased snaps throughout the season to provide some depth. The safety position is the best group since Napier arrived, but lacks experience behind the starters. Sharif Denson, Jordan Castell, and Bryce Thornton comprise the starting rotation, but all have struggled with injuries and have had their issues on the field. Florida brought in elite freshmen Lagonza Hayward and Drake Stubbs, and I expect to see them gain additional snaps throughout the season and perhaps contribute more than many expect. The entire secondary really struggled both in coverage and tackling in space until Coach Harris arrived, so here’s hoping the new coaches can build on that.
Special Teams
The “Gamechangers” have made a mockery of that title for most of Billy Napier’s tenure. Penalties, mind-numbing personnel mistakes that led to the Twister mat added to the sideline to get the right number of players on the field, and a lack of big plays – either kickoff/punt returns or blocked kicks. All have dogged the Gators for most of 3 seasons. However, bringing Joe Houston in to help coordinate the special teams actually paid off as the 2024 season progressed. He identified Dike as an effective punt returner, alternated Baugh and Badger to return kickoffs, and the coverage units were solid with few breakdowns. Houston had two excellent specialists in PK Trey Smack and P Jeremy Crawshaw to work with, but both of them still improved from 2023 to 2024.
Entering 2025, Houston has a much larger pool of skill players to choose from for kick returns, and hopefully isn’t forced into using critical starters as before. Based on the depth of both the WR and RB rooms, he should be able to find a few guys that can make an immediate impact. Hawkins, Abrams, Brown, and Louis all have speed and elusiveness, and hopefully some combination can preclude risking starters at those positions. Baugh and Mizell are capable, but the hope is that they won’t be needed and serve mostly as insurance in case of injuries or otherwise poor performance. Explosiveness and big plays have been sorely lacking for far too long. The only thing that would prevent the younger players from getting their chance is Napier’s high aversion to risk. Will he show some trust and allow them the opportunity to prove both their big-play capability and ball security?
Smack returns at PK and should be one of the top specialists in the SEC. He improved his accuracy last season, and has the strong leg that can make FGs from beyond 50 yards and also produce touchbacks on kickoffs. A new punter was needed, and Florida brought in 5th-year senior Tommy Doman from Michigan to take the job. He is a solid player with big-game experience, and should be a more than adequate replacement for Crawshaw.
Special Teams as a whole are now more settled and the best that Napier has fielded. Fortunately, his realization that having a dedicated coach to oversee all special teams paid dividends and improved Florida’s chances of winning close games.
Schedule and Outlook
The 2025 schedule is BRUTAL – again. 7 ranked teams (mostly in the Top 15), 3 in-state matchups, and a 4 game stretch from games 3 thru 6 that could determine Napier’s fate. The second half of the schedule includes 3 difficult SEC matchups, but the aforementioned 4 game stretch will set the tone for the rest of the season. I hear a lot of Gator fans saying “no more excuses” and “Playoff or bust” – I’ll believe it when I see it.
LIU – Win
I’ll be honest – I had no clue LIU had a football team. The Sharks have had a decent history as a Division 1-AA team, but this is a huge mismatch. This really shouldn’t even be a game – it should be a glorified scrimmage that hopefully allows Lagway to start shaking off a lot of rust, lets the offense work on timing and fundamentals, and allows the coaching staff to clear the bench by sometime in the 3rd quarter. As always in games like these – NO INJURIES, please.
USF – Win
The Bulls come to Gainesville hoping to catch the Gators looking ahead, which could easily happen. It had been a rough go for USF with coaching changes and roster turnover, but they have improved recently. While the Bulls are seemingly on the right track and have the usual overflow of in-state talent to fill out their roster, Florida should win this game comfortably – even if Napier chooses to remain conservative a second consecutive week before the tough stretch to come. Hopefully their opener at home against Boise St. softens them up a little.
@LSU – Loss
There are Playoff expectations for the Tigers in 2025, and Brian Kelly is feeling some heat from the fan base. LSU is loaded with talent, and had one of the Top 3 portal classes come to Baton Rouge as well. This is a massive game for both teams and coaches, but I have more confidence in Kelly over Napier and the Tigers at home at night. After two tune-up games, this will be a difficult step up in class for Florida.
@Miami – Win
Florida – and Napier – were embarrassed at the Swamp in last year’s opener. The Cane staff basically called out Napier and the offense, saying they knew what was coming and when, and that humiliation carried over until November. I’m gonna be a homer here and predict a Gator victory, but it won’t be easy. Florida will be coming off of a very tough game at LSU, Miami always plays this game with hate, and I simply lack confidence in Napier until I see otherwise. My hope is that the sting of last year’s loss provides the motivation and juice to find a way to win and show some professional and personal pride from BOTH the staff and players.
Bye Week
Texas – Loss
The Longhorns and their fan base are insufferable enough, but watching them enter the SEC in 2024 and immediately make the SECCG and the Playoff makes it even worse. Texas lost a lot of talent to the NFL and the portal, and the environment in the Swamp could rattle them. However, they have had excellent recruiting classes recently and have procured some elite portal players. Everyone is already tired of hearing about QB Arch Manning, but Steve Sarkisian is an elite offensive playcaller, and I think they win this one close and late.
@Texas A&M – Win
Florida could easily come into the game with an 0-2 SEC record, making it (another) must-win for Napier. The Aggies were the other early-season home embarrassment for the Gators in 2024, and my hope is, similar to the Miami Game, that the players and coaches use that as fuel. The visiting team has won this game every time but once since 2012. These teams match up very closely on paper – this one could be a Lagway special.
Mississippi St. (Homecoming) – Win
Florida should be able to handle the Bulldogs, even after the gantlet they will have run the previous 4 games. MSU is still in a massive rebuild, and have a long way to go to defeat a team like the Gators just yet. Having this game at home will help, as there likely is an emotional letdown and lots of bumps and bruises incurred by now. Florida wins this one unless injuries have hit the roster at key positions, but it could be a sloppy and closer-than-expected game.
Bye Week
Georgia (Jacksonville) – Loss
Florida played its best game in the series since 2020 against the Bulldogs last year, and the gap seems to be closing. But it’s not completely closed – both in talent and coaching. The Gators will be coming off of a much-needed bye week and will be hyped for this game. Turnovers and an aggressive approach by both the offense and defense could be enough to get the upset win, and this rivalry has proven that time and again. Lagway was injured in this game last season and will have extra motivation. Will that be enough? I don’t think so.
@Kentucky – Win
This is the kind of game Napier has to win. Kentucky struggled in 2024. Mark Stoops is hearing it from the Wildcat fan base, and his flirtations with other job openings has caused a lot of sniping back and forth. UK has not backfilled their recent talent losses as well as hoped, and they are back to their familiar position as an SEC also-ran. That being said, Stoops will do what he usually does when outmatched by an opponent – muddy up the game, run the ball as much as possible to limit the number of possessions, and see if the opponent panics and/or falls into the trap. It could happen again with Napier, but I think the Gators pull through (as long as they are healthy).
@Mississippi – Loss
This will mark 6 weeks since Florida played it’s last home game, and that could play a huge role in the result. The Rebels were on the Playoff doorstep when they came to the Swamp last year, and the Gators shattered those dreams. Lane Kiffen will have them ready for payback, and despite not being as talented as the 2024 team, that motivation – along with the Gators being road weary at this point – is enough for Ole Miss to exact at least some revenge.
Tennessee- Win
Finally, Florida returns to the Swamp. By then, this game could have a lot of drama surrounding it – especially if Florida has struggled in 2025. The Vols backed into the Playoff in 2024 after a handful of teams were upset, and were summarily bounced out by eventual National Champion Ohio St. Tennessee lost a significant amount of talent along both sides of the line of scrimmage, and has dealt with some QB drama. By this late in the season, one or both teams could be beaten up physically and emotionally, and it could get ugly either way. I’m going with the home team – Florida hasn’t lost to the Vols in Gainesville since 2003.
Florida $tate – Win
If Florida is even relatively healthy by this point, they should be a solid favorite over F$U. The Seminoles were historically bad in 2024 (worst season since 1973) – and it was glorious to watch. Mike NorveLLLLLLLLLL has acted even more unhinged than usual all offseason, as he knows his program is circling the drain and is feeling the pressure. It’s hard to believe, but his buyout is actually larger than Napier’s – much larger – so the Criminole faithful likely are stuck with him for at least a few more years. Once again their high school recruiting has been miserable, and they have relied heavily on the portal for immediate help. There’s no way, however, they will ever catch lightning in a bottle through the portal like they did in 2023, and the Gators will extend their suffering into the offseason.
Overall Record 8-4
SEC Record 4-4
In a complete reversal to the start of 2024, the 2025 season arrives with high expectations from Gator Nation and national pundits for Billy Napier and his program. Despite another difficult schedule, it’s put up or shut up time. There is finally enough talent and depth throughout the roster to make a run at 9+ wins and be in the Playoff hunt into November. The 4-game winning streak to conclude 2024 bought Napier some leeway, but that could evaporate quickly if the Gators stumble in games 3 through 6. We will know by then if Napier has indeed built a sustainable program that allows his players and coaches to maximize their potential – or not.
Napier has done himself no favors with multiple self-inflicted wounds, including bad coaching hires, bad situational playcalling, critical special teams gaffes, and a maddening lack of urgency and pace regarding the offense that has directly led to losses. That’s unacceptable, especially when he has been given more resources financially and staff-wise than any previous Florida coach, and has not shown a positive return-on-investment to date. It’s time for proof of concept, and the measurement will be the Win/Loss record.
You can’t hide in the SEC, and any good (or bad) will be exposed quickly. There is no more time for slow starts and glacial improvement – Florida must come out of the box hard and fast, and keep going. The season could go a lot of ways, and we’re about to see where. I believe winning 8 games would be a good enough season for Napier to keep his job, and even allow for continued recruiting success. Getting to 9 or more wins would actually get the fan base excited again and make some ripples nationally. We will see after 2025 is over if it’s all of Gator Nation pulling one way, or Gator Nation v. Napier Nation – again.
It’s that time again……Heeeeeeeeeeeere come the Gators!