Well, at least Gator fans can crawl out of their rural Central Florida basements and not worry about hearing trash talk from UCF Golden Showers, er, Golden Knight fans. Florida controlled the game from start to finish with a workmanlike 24-13 win that wasn’t as close as the final score. Sadly despite the win, this game epitomized just another reason Billy Napier shouldn’t continue as head coach. Just like last year’s Tennessee game at The Swamp, he pulled in the reins after a very good first half and essentially decided to hold on to a big lead and went into a shell. This isn’t the attitude of a big-time, winning program, and it sucked the life out of the team and fans during a tedious second half of football.
Florida’s offense did some good things in the first half, especially in the passing game. Both Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway spread the ball around and forced UCF’s defense to defend more than just a 5-yard window surrounding the line of scrimmage. Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike made some big plays, and freshman Tank Hawkins received extended snaps due to injuries to Tre Wilson and Aiden Mizell and showed some speed and quickness in the open field. The running game was solid, if unspectacular, picking up key first downs to extend drives and controlling time of possession. Then……the Napier Effect took hold, and the next 30 minutes became an interminable watch until the game ended. This was the opportunity to let the offense stretch out for 60 minutes and cash in some additional scores for a big win, but Napier seemingly won’t allow it.
The Gator defense looked improved against the run, but I still don’t know how much of that is based upon the quality of the opponent. The front seven did occasionally get pressure on KJ Jefferson, and showed again why he’s mostly a TE playing QB. UCF’s passing game sucked, and Gus Malzahn simply can’t seem to develop an efficient passing game no matter where he coaches. Once Jefferson had to come off of his first read, he was dead in the water, and either took a sack or had to throw the ball away. CB Jason Marshall again made his case of all-SEC honors, shutting down Kobe Hudson all night. The Knights still pushed the Gator D-line back too often for me to declare a permanent step forward for the defense just yet, however.
Now it’s on the Rocky Top to face Tennessee, who is coming off of a stunning upset loss at Arkansas. After some blowout wins against easy competition, they were punched in the mouth by the Razorbacks and didn’t look good trying to fight for 60 minutes. I was hoping they’d come into this game overlooking the Gators and perhaps come out flat, but I’m afraid that won’t be the case now.
What looked like a huge mismatch of the Vol offense vs. the Gator defense may be offset somewhat by injuries to their 3 top WRs and their #2 RB. The possible impact to their efficiency won’t be known until the game starts, but it appears WR Squirrel White (what a perfect name for a Tennessee player) may miss the game with a broken hand, while Bru McCoy and Chris Brazzell will both play at less than 100%. Despite all the attention given to Tennessee’s fast-paced offense and passing game, many forget their running game is very good, led by Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop. Both average over 6 yards per carry and have good speed, and unless the Florida front seven at least slows them down, it will be another long night for the Gators. QB Nico Iamaleava has had some moments so far, but lately is starting to look like the freshman he is as more film becomes available on him. He is struggling to read defenses that give him multiple looks, but can Florida DC Ron Roberts actually put together a comprehensive, quality game plan? I suspect Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel will lean on the running game early and often, forcing the Gators to prove they can at least slow down a quality team while giving his young QB a comfort zone without placing him in many must-pass scenarios. The he will try to strike with some deep shots in his up-tempo offense.
The Volunteers come into the game with a top-5 ranked defense that has a lot of speed, but I will say that it’s ranking is as much a result of playing outmanned opponents, including an Arkansas team that beat them with a freshman backup QB getting most of the snaps last week. It appears the Gator offense will continue to run it’s 2 QB rotation, with Mertz getting 2 series to 1 for Lagway……at least until Napier proves he’ll actually ride the hot hand. I expect Tennessee to load up the box and force Florida to win by passing the ball, which is the usual and expected game plan from any Gator opponent. I did like the fact that Florida ran more 3- and 4-WR looks and less 2 TE sets against UCF, and it’s my hope that continues. Badger, Dike, and hopefully some combination of Mizell/Hawkins/Wilson (depending on injury status) are capable of some big plays downfield if given the opportunity. I’m sure Napier will want (as always) to control the game by running the football, but he likely will have to get out of his comfort zone and reverse tendencies by throwing a lot more on early downs, and more often than usual.
Unfortunately, Tennessee’s loss at Arkansas likely refocuses their players and Florida will face a motivated, angry team. It’s been hard enough for Napier and the Gators to play competitively on the road against good teams during his tenure, and I’m afraid that if Florida falls behind early by multiple scores (again), that as usual neither the offense nor playcaller are equipped to overcome that. IF……if the Gators can somehow withstand the expected early emotional onslaught from the Volunteers or shockingly take an early lead, perhaps the pressure starts to affect Iamaleava and he makes some critical mistakes. There’s no evidence in 2+ seasons that a Napier team is capable of it, though, and the road struggles likely continue until proven otherwise. If the Gators can stay close by halftime things could get interesting in the second half, but I don’t see it happening.
Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 2
Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 (loss)
Prediction:
Tennessee 38
Florida 17