The 2024 season starts with I’d say more trepidation than excitement for Gator Nation, as the Miami Hurricanes come to Gainesville for a rare visit to play Florida. It was a LONG ‘winter of discontent’, followed by a LONG ‘spring of discontent’, followed by a LONG ‘summer of discontent’. More coaching changes, more talk of possibly sharing playcalling responsibilities, another attempt to build at least a functional SEC-level defense, and even changes to the heads of both Strength and Conditioning and Nutrition. Billy Napier’s Florida resume looks really weak to date with way too many holes and missteps, and he’s facing intense pressure to deliver proof of concept by finally winning more games and proving the Gators are a well-coached team.
Florida’s offense will have it’s hands full with Miami’s front seven. The Canes have a force at DE in Rueben Bain, a disruptive player who will test Florida’s tackles – Austin Barber backed up by ARkansas transfer Devon Manuel at LT and some combination of San Diego St. transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and Kam Waites at RT. The other 3 DL are transfers, but all are experienced and solid players. The Gators will have to prove they can do more in the passing game than the dink-and-dunk attack from last season. Graham Mertz has to utilize the intermediate and deep zones more successfully to keep the defense honest and give his playmakers – especially Tre Wlson – opportunities to make explosive plays. His previous connection with new WR Chimere Dike (who transferred in from Wisconsin) could pay dividends immediately. Oregon transfer Elijhah Badger has looked solid in fall camp. TEs Arlis Boardingham and Hayden Hansen need to provide quick outlets for Mertz if he’s under pressure. Miami is starting 3 new players in it’s secondary, and Florida has to test them early and often. If Mertz gets time to throw, he should find success downfield.
Notice that I haven’t talked about the Gator rushing attack. This is normally what Napier would lean on in almost any game, but with Montrell Johnson likely not 100% returning from knee surgery 4 weeks ago and with little experience behind him, I’m not sure there will be consistent success to be found unless the passing game can provide balance. Treyaun Webb, Jaden Baugh, and Ja’Kobi Jackson all have legit talent and will get touches, but they have precious little experience in pass protection or as receivers out of the backfield, which is where Johnson’s potential lack of availability could hurt. Miami LBs Wesley Bissainthe and Francisco Mauigoa are very good, and will be hard to run against unless the O-line really plays well. The interior of the Gator O-line could be very good with the rotation of Jake Slaughter, Knijeah Harris, Damieon George, Rod Kearney, and Bryce Lovett at the guard and center positions. It will be interesting to see how Napier handles the playcalling as the game progresses – will he show aggressiveness, and, if so, for how long? I doubt playing it safe will win this game – he has to attack consistently.
Even with some of the questions about the offense, it’s the Gator defense that will receive the most scrutiny on Saturday. It was historically bad last season, and has to prove itself to everyone. Ron Roberts has the responsibility to bring structure and cohesiveness to this unit, and leadership to the defensive coaching staff. Austin Armstrong failed miserably as Defensive Coordinator in 2023, both calling games and by clashing with other position coaches. While he has retained that title, it’s obvious that Roberts is really running the show. The Florida front seven will have it’s hands full with Miami’s running attack, led by Oregon St. transfer Damieon Martinez, who ran for 1,185 yards last season. Mark Fletcher is a solid second option who ran for over 500 yards as a true freshman. The right side of Miami’s O-line is very good, with guard Anez Cooper and tackle Francis Mauiogoa. Florida actually has the most returning experience and talent it’s had along the D-line in years, and they will be tested for 60 minutes. The tackle rotation of Cam Jackson, Caleb Banks, and Penn transfer Joey Slackman has to at least gain a stalemate at the line of scrimmage, or it will be a long afternoon for the defense. Miami was fortunate in getting QB Cam Ward to transfer in from Washington St. He’s a decent passer who can scramble and has 2 full years of starting experience. The Gator DEs have to get pressure on him and try to force some mistakes. The return of Justus Boone after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury is huge for the pass rush, and the rotation of Tyreak Sapp, TJ Searcy, Kelby Collins, George Gumbs, and 5* true freshman LJ McCray will have to contribute. It appears that Florida will have it’s best pair of linebackers since 2016 with Shemar James and South Carolina transfer Grayson ‘Pup’ Howard. 2 excellent true freshmen prospects – Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles – may have to grow up quickly. Roberts will be the LB position coach and has a good reputation, and his unit is gonna be tested right from the start. The rash of missed tackles and blown assignments seen the previous 2 seasons has to be rectified immediately.
The Gator secondary is the strongest and deepest unit on the defense, and will need to prove to the rest of the college football world it has moved past the horrific performance of the past 2 seasons. The raw talent at the disposal of new secondary coach Will Harris is unmistakable. CB Jason Marshall returns for his senior season ready to show he’s an early-round NFL Draft pick. Devon Moore is a solid bookend to Marshall, but has to stay healthy for an entire season. Aaron Gates and Dijon Johnson took their lumps as freshmen last season and should be much improved. The safety position has been significantly upgraded from the experience gained by returning sophomores Jordan Castell and Sharif Denson, as well as getting transfers Asa Turner from Washington and Trikweze Bridges from Oregon, both of whom have plenty of starting experience. The secondary will be challenged by Miami WRs Xavier Restepo, Jacolby George, and Houston transfer Samuel Brown. All 3 are productive players with plenty of experience. My biggest hope for the defense is that since this will be just the first game together for Ward and these receivers, that the noise of the Swamp, along with what should be an improved defensive front, is enough to force enough punts to give the Gator offense as many possessions as possible to generate points.
This is a massive game for both programs and head coaches. Both have struggled recently, and the fan bases are frustrated with underachieving performance by both the players and coaches. One team will get a springboard for a fast start and positive momentum, while the other will remain stuck in a rut both on the field and off. I’m going with the home team in this game, only because it’s at the Swamp – not based on confidence in Napier’s playcalling or decision-making until I see proof on the field of play. I think this one stays close all the way through and hopefully the Gator defense is improved just enough to hold on.
Prediction:
Florida 27
Miami 24