Well, this edition of The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party got a shot of juice of a different kind with the unceremonious firing of Rural Meyer. Gator Nation’s 45-game nightmare is over, and the process of starting to move forward can begin.
There’s a lot of optimism about the potential of seeing an offense based in the 21st century again. WR coach Billy Gonzales is the interim head coach, and stated in his initial press conference that the offensive attack should look more wide-open and aggressive, and utilize DJ Lagways’s strengths more often. That sounds good in theory, but unless the O-line plays a LOT better, no offense is going to look good. If the plan is to spread the field with additional WRs, you’d better make sure that Lagway gets the ball out of his hand quickly and decisively, or he’ll get eaten alive. He’s already playing on one leg, and not having a mobile QB against the UGA defense is putting yourself at a disadvantage. Jaden Baugh and the running game still have to be the engine behind any game plan, and he’ll need to have a big game to give the Gators a chance. I’m sure WRs Dallas Wilson and VB3 are excited to show out – I just hope they’re given the opportunity. The other change I hope to see is a big change in the down-and-distance tendencies. It became a running joke among the fan base that they could call the plays themselves based on the situation and formation……and that was true far too often. Thus the repeated instances of Napier getting stuffed into a locker by opposing defensive coordinators who actually could tell what was coming pre-snap, and openly talked about it afterwards. It’s far past time to change that narrative. Interestingly, Georgia’s defense is led this season more by it’s LBs and secondary than it’s D-line. LBs CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson are by far their leading tacklers, and CB KJ Bolden is one of the better players in the SEC. The hope is that Florida’s O-line and TEs can actually open some holes for the run game, and that the Bulldogs’ weaker-than-usual pass rush can be handled just enough to allow Lagway enough time to actually make plays.
Florida’s defense has held together in the front seven despite injuries to the DT rotation and being forced into playing young, inexperienced guys. LB Myles Graham has been terrific all season, and his leadership has held the front together so far. Unfortunately……he can’t help the secondary. The Gators were forced into playing 4 true freshmen and a senior scout team player against Mississippi St., and no one knows who will be available going forward. Georgia’s offense has not been as run-dominant this year as in previous seasons, as they have been more balanced and relied more on the passing game led by QB Gunnar Stockton. Surprisingly, he has shown some development as a passer, and is a consistent threat when scrambling or on a designed run. The Bulldogs split carries evenly among two solid RBs in Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens. Neither is particularly explosive, but run hard and gain yards after contact. Zachariah Branch and Colbie Young lead a WR corps that are more of a ball-control group than producing big plays. Florida will have to employ a spy on Stockton occasionally, and they have to find a way to get more pressure from their pass rush. Based on the season to date, I feel the Gator front seven should be able to control the running game, but have the added pressure of getting pressure on the QB to help out the depleted secondary. I don’t know if a coaching change will have any positive effect on the disappointing play from the Edge rushers, but it would be a revelation at this point if they finally decided to show up this week.
At least there’s a spark of interest and excitement again. But as much as I’d like it, I don’t see Florida winning. Unless the Gator O-line and injured secondary far exceed their performance to date, the Bulldogs have too much talent and depth. Perhaps the coaching change is worth an extra TD to the offense, but that won’t be enough. Georgia will have to help the Gators by giving up some turnovers and playing less than their best. Additionally, even with Florida struggling – again – Kirby Smart feels the same way about the Gators that Steve Spurrier did about the Bulldogs. I can’t see him allowing his team to sleepwalk through this one.
Prediction:
Georgia 34
Florida 17