Florida made it’s return to Atlanta for the first time since 2009, hoping to shock the college football world with an upset of Alabama.  Despite another great performance by the defense, the Gators came up short in a performance painfully familiar for the last month of the season.

The offense was offensive once again, generating only a paltry 15 yards on 21 carries, and gaining only 3 net yards in the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined – another dreadful exhibition that hopefully will be changed starting next season with improved play at the QB and O-Line positions.  Treon Harris did not improve, missing lots of open receivers all afternoon and missing on scoring chances in the first half that definitely could have changed the outcome.  The O-Line knew going in that running the ball would be difficult against a strong Bama D-Line, and unfortunately that scenario played out.  Kelvin Taylor never had a chance to find some open space, and Harris only had a few scrambles for decent yardage.  Coach Nussmeier schemed up some potentially big plays in the passing game, but again Harris failed to deliver the ball on time and accurately, killing any real chance at victory.  The pass blocking actually was decent again, but poor QB play doomed the offense.  If asked about the execution of the offense, I’m sure Coach Mac could easily respond with the old John McKay line, “I’m all for it”.

The Gator defense again played hard for almost 60 minutes until it ran out of gas.  The D-Line and LBs laid the wood to Derrick Henry all afternoon, made him earn each of his 189 rushing yards on 44 attempts, and caused a fumble for a turnover.  Jon Bullard led an inspired effort by the entire D-Line, while Jarrad Davis was all over the field, disrupting the run and pass.  Sadly, the secondary gave up 2 TDs and another long pass that could have been prevented by better ball-awareness by the safeties, especially Marcus Maye.  Maye has struggled all season with locating the ball and making a play on it going back to the LSU game, and was victimized again in the second half.  The cornerbacks had decent coverage most of the day, but allowed some completions where the ball should have been knocked down, including one TD.  Even Vernon Hargreaves had a few opportunities to make some big plays in coverage on some key throws and didn’t do it.

The special teams were right where they’ve been all season.  Great kick coverage, another punt return TD by Antonio Callaway, terrific punting by Johnny Townsend, and terrible FG kicking by Austin Hardin.  Florida allowed it’s only blocked punt of the season which gave Bama momentum and an early 2-0 lead, and Hardin had another FG blocked – both in the 1st quarter……not the best way to inspire confidence from the rest of the team.

The script didn’t change from the past month, but hopefully recruits see that this staff can put the players in position to win, even with limited depth and talent.  Overall it was a great season – much better than most expected, and the opportunity to play for a championship can never be discounted.  The coaching staff will be working especially hard on recruiting between now and National Signing Day – there are plenty of holes to fill on the roster, especially at WR, OL, LB, and QB.  There will be some early entries into the NFL – VH3 for sure, with Keanu Neal a likely candidate as well, and the loss of key seniors like Bullard and Antonio Morrison will be felt on the field and in the locker room.   There is sufficient underclass depth to absorb these losses without a huge dropoff in performance, but those are big shoes to fill.

Florida has been rewarded with a trip to Orlando for the Citrus Bowl against Michigan.  This will be a matchup of 2 similar teams – both were lightly regarded going into the season, had new head coaches, and were led by very tough defenses.  I’ll be back in a few weeks with the bowl matchup analysis – it should be a good game.

Go Gators!

Another soul-crushing “offensive” performance, another loss to F$U, and the late-season regression continues.  A great crowd, great defensive effort, good running game, and decent play from the O-Line weren’t enough to make up for a terrible passing game and lack of performance by QB Treon Harris, to go with more missed FGs from Austin Hardin.  I really feel bad for Harris, as he’s doing his best after being thrown into a bad situation, and his play is so limited that it’s easy for defenses to stop the few things he’s capable of.  He again missed wide open receivers that could have led to scores, could not check down quickly, and had multiple passes batted down.  He continues to be excoriated by the fans and media, but has been a great Gator in the face of a difficult situation.

The O-Line actually held up and played well, considering they played with no passing threat and a QB that will be at WR or possibly at another school next year.  There were occasional holes opened for Kelvin Taylor, and he ran hard through some nagging injuries.  He has really developed and improved as the season has progressed, and has shown toughness while going through a ton of punishment.  Taylor needs 23 yards this week to get to 1,000 for the season, and has already tied his dad’s record for rushing TDs by a RB at Florida with 13.  The pass protection broke down a few times, but, again, they had no help from the QB and WRs.  Trip Thurman had to play at center due to an injury to Cam Dillard, and he made quite a few bad snaps, some of which really killed some decent drives.  Freshman Tyler Jordan had to fill in at guard, while Martez Ivey and David Sharpe continued to play through nagging injuries.  There’s no questioning that this group (including Mason Halter) played hard and played close to their maximum capability.

The suspension of Demarcus Robinson really hurt, and the WRs that were left struggled.  Even when they did break open, Harris was (again) painfully slow in delivering the ball and often inaccurate.  Antonio Callaway had at least two opportunities to score if the ball was delivered accurately and on time.  Chris Thompson did his best to fill in for Robinson, but his lack of playing time and experience was obvious.  Brandon Powell’s output has fallen off dramatically this month – he is battling through a painful foot injury, but his limitations are apparent.  I hoped Ahmad Fulwood would contribute, but he was hardly targeted all night.  This is a group that desperately needs an upgrade next season.

The Gator defense made another heroic effort, an dominated for 50 minutes before finally showing some cracks after tiring.  They allowed no consistent passing game, and completely shut down Dalvin Crook until the middle of the 4th quarter.  It has to be hard for those guys not to flash back to the past 2 seasons, as the offense dies on the vine.  Jon Bullard and Joey Ivie played well even through injuries, and the entire D-Line was disruptive most of the evening.  Jarrad Davis and Antonio Morrison flew around the field to make tackles.  Morrison really earned his nickname of Tank playing through a lot of injuries, but what a season after coming back from ACL surgery in less than 8 months to play in every game – a real inspiration and show of toughness.  VH3 and the secondary were tough all evening, allowing only a few decent completions despite knowing they were fighting an uphill battle.  Props to Keanu Neal for playing the flats so well on swing passes to Crook.

Finally, the special teams did what they’ve done all season.  Great punting form Johnny Townsend, solid kick coverage, and……lousy FG kicking.  Hardin may keep his scholarship next season, but it will be only for kickoffs.  His confidence is completely gone, and those missed FGs directly contributed to this loss.  Yeah, it’s a team game, but sometimes a lack of performance is so apparent it can’t be glossed over.

It’s on to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.  Despite the depressing “offensive” effort against F$U, what a great reward for this team, especially looking back just 4 months to most of the preseason projections from the media and most of the fans expecting 6-8 wins.  I hope the staff and the seniors can lift the spirits of the team and try to coax one more total effort, because it will be needed to have any chance of winning or even keeping the game close against an excellent Alabama team.

It’s usually about matchups, and this one is especially bad on paper for the Gators.  Bama’s strength is on the D-Line, led by DTs A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed who head one of the best rush defenses in the nation.  LB Reggie Ragland leads a solid group.  The weakest unit is the secondary, but Florida is showing no real threat in the passing game.  This is house money for the Gators, and Coach Mac and Coach Nuss should take some chances with long throws, jump balls, and fade routes to the WRs to try and generate a few big plays.  There’s nothing to lose, as Treon Harris is struggling so badly right now to complete any passes let alone get them past the LOS without being batted down.  If that means going to low-percentage throws that aren’t as risk-adverse, so be it.  Robinson has been reinstated, and could be a huge boost to the WR corps.  Callaway and Powell need some help……I hope Fulwood can shock Bama and make a few plays.  The Florida O-Line actually played pretty well against F$U, considering the passing game was of such little consequence and they had to block so many opponents in the box.  I’m not sure they can open the same holes for Taylor again against a better D-Line, but they have to try and open some cracks at least occasionally.  One thing that seemed to work against F$U was when the offense went up-tempo on occasion – perhaps that helps Harris by keeping the defense simple, and allows his to use his legs more.

I’m not sure how much gas is left in the tank for the Gator defense.  They were fantastic against the Criminoles before cracking, and it is starting to become eerily similar to what Gator fans have witnessed the previous 2 seasons.  Hopefully the staff can pump the guys up for 60 more minutes, as the bowl game isn’t for another 3 1/2 weeks – plenty of time to rest and recoup their physical and mental energy.  Alabama is led by Heisman candidate Derrick Henry at RB, who is a unique player with size, power, and deceptive speed, as well as a decent receiver in the screen game.  I expect a heavy dose all afternoon, even if the Gators can slow him down early.  I’m sure Lane Kitten will take some long shots to WR Calvin Ridley in specific situations to try and fool Florida’s secondary, but VH3, Jalen Tabor, or Quincy Wilson will have to be relied upon to play solid man coverage while the front seven (or eight) try and contain Bama’s running game.  Davis and Morrison are beaten up at LB, but have to go to the well one more time to try and slow Henry.  If Florida does slow down the Tide’s running game, I would not be surprised to see underutilized TE O.J. Howard get some targets – he’s a real threat and can be a dangerous weapon.  QB Jake Coker has managed their offense well this season.  He isn’t the most accurate passer, but does a nice job of keeping plays alive with his legs and is a better runner than many realize.  Hopefully the Gator secondary remembers their performance at Alabama last season – and atones for it.

Going off of recent performances, this game likely won’t be close at the end.  If Bama follows the defensive script that teams have employed against Harris and the Gator offense the past month, Florida will again struggle to move the ball consistently, let alone score many points.  I really think that other than the Gators having a +3 or better turnover margin, the only scenario to play out that gives Florida a chance to win is for Bama to sleep-walk through the first half which keeps the score close, then they start to tighten up in the second half as they realize what’s as stake and perhaps start to press.  I fully expect an early onslaught from the Crimson Tide to try and get a double-digit lead and force Florida out of any balance on offense, and into that “here we go again” mentality on the Gator defense.

No matter the outcome, congratulation to the Gators for a great season.  They have accomplished so much more than expected, and (hopefully) have laid a foundation for the new coaching staff to build upon to reclaim dominance in the SEC East on a regular basis and to eventually have the talent level in “reload” vs. “rebuild” mode.

Prediction:  Alabama 31      Florida 10

Florida tempted fate again against an outmanned FAU team, and was fortunate to survive overtime with a desultory effort.  As bad as it was going into halftime tied at 0-0, blowing a 14-0 lead in the 4th quarter was worse.  It’s easy to just go ahead and bash the players for a lack of effort and focus – especially on offense, but perhaps the smoke-and-mirrors it’s taken the staff to hold the offense together through 11 games is finally taking it’s toll on the emotional level of the entire team.  Even the defense has started to show cracks in concentration and execution the past 2 weeks.  It also didn’t help that the FAU was playing dirty by cut-blocking the Gator DL all afternoon, leading to a few injuries, including Jon Bullard.

The Gator offense regressed (again) from last week, with another Misschump-era performance.  The O-Line was brutal, never allowing the running game any consistency, and having Treon Harris run for his life for most of the day.  The starting lineup was back in place, but their play was a painful reminder of what many believed would be the case at the start of the season.  It’s hard to say if this unit just mentally checked out for this game, or if deeper problems have developed behind the scenes.  Harris was pressured all afternoon, but occasionally was his own enemy as well, missing open receivers.  Kelvin Taylor and Jordan Scarlett had little room to run all day.  It’s hard to believe the WRs couldn’t work free more often, but to be fair, Harris didn’t have much time to throw.

Florida’s defense allowed only 1 TD, but certainly didn’t distinguish themselves.  They allowed too many sustained drives, and the secondary played way to softly in coverage, giving up a lot of easy throws in the second half.  Even the run defense was gashed.  The lack of depth on the D-Line due to injuries really showed itself in the 4th quarter.  To their credit, they generated the first Gator TD with a QB sack and fumble returned to the FAU 1-yard line, and the oft-maligned Brian Poole made the play on the ball on the last 2 plays in OT.

At this point I don’t know what to say or even think about Austin Hardin’s placekicking.  He hit the upright on one FG attempt and them overcorrected on the other, both from under 40 yards, and had another XP blocked due to a low kick.  Somehow the staff has to find a more reliable option next season, as Hardin’s mental makeup is simply not getting the job done.  Florida will have to live and die with him the rest of this season, though.

The final regular-season game is at the Swamp this week, as Florida $t. comes to Gainesville to try and continue their recent run of success against the Gators.  Dalvin Crook and the Criminoles would love nothing better than to take advantage of Florida’s recent struggles and sneak out with a win.

F$U sadly has figured out that Sean Maguire is the better of their 2 QBs, as I was hoping that Everett Golson would be the starter and ready to turn the ball over multiple times.  Maguire is not the running threat that Golson is, which should help the Gator front seven contain him in the pocket and force him to find open receivers.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them break tendencies and take some deep shots early to try and loosen up the Florida secondary so they can work their short passing game.  Travis Rudolph and Kermit Whitfield are the main receiving threats, but neither is a burner and true deep threat.  If the Gator cornerbacks are on their game, there’s no real strategy F$U can expect continued success with – their WRs and TEs are simply not as good as the Gator secondary.  Most of the Criminoles’ success on offense is predicated on their strong running game with Crook, which sets up play-action passes.  The Gator defensive front seven has to refocus itself and play hard for 60 minutes.  Many of the linemen are dinged up, so expect a heavy rotation all along the line to try and maximize their performance and keep them fresh.  Bullard, Jordan Sherit, Taven Bryan, and Alex Macalister all may be limited in the number of snaps they get.  The long season is also starting to catch up to Tank Morrison and Jarrad Davis at LB.  They continue to soldier on valiantly, but neither of them is close to 100% at this point, with little relief in sight form the backups, who simply aren’t good enough yet.  The defense can’t afford to crack against the running game and allow long, time-consuming drives.  The Gator offense is going to need as many chances as they can get to try and generate points, which leads me to……

……the Gator offense.  The pressure lies squarely on the shoulders of the entire unit this week, and every man has to raise his level of play from recent weeks.  The O-Line has been a sieve lately due to injuries and lack of focus, and that has to change.  Only 8 OL will likely play barring injuries, and the communication and effort have to be on point to give the RBs and Harris any chance of sustaining a few drives and scoring some points.  David Sharpe and Martez Ivey have to play through injuries, while Trip Thurman, Can Dillard, Tyler Jordan, and Mason Halter need to step up their performance.  The staff will hopefully have some new formations and schemes in order to break free the TEs and WRs.  The middle of the field between the numbers has to be utilized – Harris needs to make quick reads and simply cut it loose.  Hopefully Jake McGee and Deondre Goolsby can hit some seam routes or wheel routes.  Demarcus Robinson needs to break out of his recent funk and show 100% effort every play.  He has great physical skills, but his mental game continues to hold him back.  Antonio Callaway continues to impress as a true freshman, but still lacks polish at route-running.  Somehow he needs to generate 1 or 2 of the big plays he’s contributed throughout the season.  The recent play of the offense will almost surely guarantee a loss unless they show massive improvement.

The Criminole defense is lead by DL Derrick Nnadi, DeMarcus Walker, and Josh Sweat, LBs Reggie Northrup and Lamarcus Brutus, and DBs Derwin James and Jaylen Ramsey.  This is a solid unit overall, but lacks the big-time playmakers.  They have not allowed many long plays, but have been gashed more often than recent years by both the run and pass.  Of course, given the current struggles of Florida’s offense, almost any defense can look formidable.  I expect the same look from the F$U defense as Florida has seen against most of it’s better opponents – 8 or 9 men in the box, and single coverage on the WRs.  There will be opportunities for some big plays, but can the Gators rise to the challenge?  It’s all about effort, determination, and competing hard every play.

The national media has savaged the Gator offense all week, and belittled the team’s accomplishments to date.  Florida has fallen to #12 in the Playoff standings, behind even some 2-loss teams.  Talk about a slap in the face – the collective pride of the team has to be hurt, and this should serve as more than enough motivation to play their best game of the season.  I believe the defense will play well enough to win, but the offense has been so horrid recently that it is difficult to look past that and predict success against a quality opponent.  I am worried that their recent struggles are affecting their confidence, and that they can’t simply relax and play loose.  It pains me to make this pick, as a healthy Gator team with Will Grier at QB would likely win this game.

Prediction:  F$U 20        Florida 17

Florida took care of it’s business in Columbia with a workmanlike 24-14 win over South Carolina.  The defense was dominant for 55 minutes with just one lapse that gave the Lamecocks false hope, while the offense improved over it’s dreadful performance against Vanderbilt with an improved passing game and some timely runs to keep a comfortable lead until the brief tension late in the game.

On offense, Treon Harris improved his passing from the past few weeks, making some nice downfield throws and some clutch 3rd down plays to keep some long drives alive.  The TEs were rediscovered, which really helped Harris in some tight spots and made the Carolina defense stay honest and not load the box every snap.  Jake McGee and Deondre Goolsby made some nice catches in traffic and Goolsby in particular some runs after the catch for big plays.  The WRs got some more opportunities as well – Brandon Powell converted some 3rd downs out of the slot, Antonio Callaway made a few grabs over the middle, and Demarcus Robinson made a great catch of a low throw late in the 4th quarter that continued the drive that iced the game.  Harris made a few mistakes that have to be corrected – his interception at the goal line at the end of the first half was inexcusable when the Gators could have put the game away, he took a few sacks where he could have thrown the ball away, and he continues to miss open receivers due to slow progressions.  He has 2 weeks to get better before the competition ramps up dramatically.  The running game was a tough go most of the afternoon, as Carolina did a lot of run blitzing while daring Florida to throw.  Kelvin Taylor earned a lot of tough yards, and his clutch run on the last possession on 3rd and 8 from midfield essentially ended the game.  Jordan Scarlett did not get many touches, and that is disappointing.  Jordan Cronkrite, however, showed some nice receiving skills, including coming back for the ball on the long TD that made it 14-0.  That could be a skill utilized in the coming weeks.  The O-line performed better with David Sharpe and Martez Ivey back in the starting lineup, but at this point it is what it is as far as overall ability – just an average unit at best.  It’s all about being opportunistic and efficient – this unit simply is not good enough to dominate games against stronger opponents.

The Gator defense completely shut down Carolina for the first 50 minutes, holding them to under 60 yards of offense.  Then they seemed to lose focus, allowing a throwback pass to the QB for a TD, then letting Carolina drive the field for their second TD, mainly through the air.  That was really the only disappointing moment for the defense.  It was good to see Jon Bullard play so much despite being less than 100%, and he again wreaked havoc along the LOS.  Caleb Brantley stepped up to the task of getting more reps than usual by stuffing the running lanes.  Jarrad Davis and Tank Morrison did their usual damage from the LB position, and the secondary had their way with 3 interceptions, offsetting the one breakdown late in the game.  The entire defense seemed to relish the opportunity to pick the offense up after last week and lead the way – another example that great defense travels for road games.

This week Florida Atlantic comes to the Swamp for a big paycheck and (hopefully) a big beatdown.  Any time a smaller Florida school plays a larger state school, those players are hyped for the occasion and want to pull off the major upset.  The Gators will be down 3 D-Linemen – Alex McCalister, Joey Ivie, and Jordan Sherit.  This will be a great opportunity for Ce Ce Jefferson, Khairi Clark, and Taven Bryan to get extended playing time and develop more depth along the line.  The mantra for this type of game is always for the offense to get a comfortable lead early, allowing the staff to liberally substitute in the backups on both sides of the ball to rest the starters and lessen the chance of injuries.  This will be a difficult challenge for the staff to get the players focused on this game, with 2 huge games to come.   We’ll see if the sluggish effort from the offense against Vanderbilt is repeated at home again, or if the O-Line can build on it’s performance against South Carolina and the entire offense can play with an edge.  I expect a vanilla game plan on both sides of the ball in order to save up special formations, plays, and coverages for F$U and Alabama.  Florida needs to put this game away early and then set it’s sight on bigger prizes.

Prediction: Florida 34      FAU 13

So much for a fun-filled, relaxed Homecoming.  The Florida offense completely imploded on Saturday, playing a sloppy, mistake-filled game that almost ruined all of the hard work and good fortune earned until now.  Fumbles, penalties, lack of focus, and the lack of depth on the O-Line came together in an almost perfect storm to derail a great season to date.  The O-line had 2 new starters on the left side due to injuries, and the lack of cohesiveness and, frankly, talent-level of the backups killed the running game and really affected Treon Harris.  The O-Line play was so bad that a hobbled David Sharpe and Martez Ivey were pressed into service to try and shore things up, but only with marginal success.  Harris already has enough challenges of his own, but all of them were magnified – slow check-downs, not seeing the middle of the field, and inaccurate short passes.  On top of that, he lost a fumble for the second week in a row, and that will not be tolerated by Coach Mac and Coach Nuss.  Harris is not the only culprit, though – Demarcus Robinson’s propensity for carrying the ball very loosely finally caught up to him, as he fumbled deep in Vandy territory midway through the 4th quarter on a drive that really could have made the rest of the game much easier to manage.  That performance overall brought back bad memories of the 2014 Misschump offense…….absolutely brutal.

I have one criticism of Coach Mac, and it’s his handling of Austin Hardin as the PK.  Hardin has struggled with confidence and injury most of the season, but he is far and away the best PK on the roster.  It’s time to stop beating him up in the press and support him.  Letting the walkon kicker try (and miss) the extra point almost cost Florida the game.  Plus, Hardin saved the Gators with his clutch FG that turned out to be the game-winner, and that’s not his first – he also won the game last season at Elevenessee with a 50+ yard FG late.  Also, Mac needs to stop going for it inside the 10 on 4th down and simply take the points – that decision again almost cost the Gators the win.  Stick with Hardin and stop the games – just hope for the best with him going forward.

The special teams return units were great, consistently starting the offense in Commodore territory.  That just magnified the ineptitude of the offense all afternoon, where simply putting a few first downs together would have practically guaranteed 17 or more additional points and not left the game in doubt until very late.  Antonio Callaway really has come on as a threat as a PR.  Johnny Townsend had another solid game, continually pinning the Commodores inside their own 20.

It’s now on to South Carolina for the final SEC game of the season.  The Gamecocks have actually played much better since the Pariah resigned/retired/quit a few weeks ago, and with the Florida offense regressing weekly, almost any game is a potential loss.  USCe really is mediocre on both sides of the ball, but playing hard makes up for a lot.  On offense they are led by QB Perry Orth, who started the season as the 3rd-string QB until early season injuries elevated him to the starter’s role.  He is a decent passer with some mobility, but his completion percentage is only average and he is susceptible to turnovers – something the defense may have to generate to help the offense score.  They have a quality RB in Brandon Wilds, but their O-Line has struggled most of the season, and this is the most favorable matchup for the Gator defense, as the D-Line has been one of the best in the country this year.  Normally, they would be able to control the Lamecocks for most of the afternoon, allowing the Florida offense enough possessions to (hopefully) scrape together enough points and time-of-possession to get out of Columbia with a win.  However, Jordan Sherit has to sit out the first half due to the ridiculous targeting call against him, Joey Ivie is out with an abdominal tear, and Jon Bullard may be very limited with an arm injury.  Bullard’s leadership on the field would be sorely missed.  Pharoh Cooper is a quality WR and kick returner, and I would expect VH3 to be assigned to him most of the day.  The rest of the secondary should have the advantage as well, but Keanu Neal is fighting through an ankle injury.  Of course, if the Gator offense lays another egg, it only takes a few big plays to win, and no defense is immune to at least a few missed assignments or letdowns.

On offense, the Gators should get LT Sharpe and LG Ivey back in the starting lineup, and that should allow Coach Summers to use his regular lineup and rotation again.  The running game has to take some pressure off of Harris, and Coach Nuss really needs to find a way to get the TEs back into the game plan to help out.  The passing game has to utilize the middle of the field between the numbers more – Harris needs to find some lanes in order to make throws there and step up in the pocket more often.  He is scrambling way too quickly without going through his progressions.  I can only hope the dismal performance against Vanderbilt wakes the offense up and reminds them of how hard they have to practice and play to be successful.  It may be time for the coaches to get after Harris and not coddle him – perhaps that will get him to re-focus on what he needs to do to help the team win.   Jordan Scarlett should continue to see more carries to keep Taylor fresh.  All of the WRs need to step up this week as well.  The defense allowed the offense it’s one mulligan for the season.

Congratulations to the entire team and coaching staff for a minor miracle in winning the East and going back to Atlanta for the first time since 2009 – too long of an absence.  No matter what happens going forward, that should not be lost on anyone who follows the Gators.  There were tremendous obstacles in their path, many left behind by the previous staff.  Of course the defense is championship-caliber, but the offensive staff has somehow managed the players and talent at their disposal to develop a functional unit.  It’s funny how such a close call can quickly make many forget what this team has accomplished and far it has had to come on offense to get to this point.

There are still some huge goals attainable for this team, starting with finding a way to win this coming Saturday.  Burn the game film from last week, and move on.

Prediction:  Florida 20      S. Carolina 17

Florida got back on track with a solid victory over Georgia in Jacksonville.  This was a much-needed win to keep the positive momentum created by a great start to the season, and also for recruiting.   Georgia had it’s chance to really swing the series back in it’s favor the past 2 years, but now Florida is rebuilding and reasserting it’s dominance.  Coach Helen Hunt now hears the howls for his head, while Puppy Nation takes the I-75 Trail of Tears back to Athens……AGAIN.  That’s 20 out of 26 for the Gators since 1990 – nice to see more than a generation of Puppy fans being indoctrinated into the series the right way.  Yes, the St. John’s River still flows north for a reason.

The Gator defense again led the way, generating 5 turnovers and dominating the Puppy offense most of the afternoon.  The run defense was as good as it’s been all season, holding Georgia to 77 yards rushing, and never letting them get into any comfortable flow to help out a first-time starter at QB.  Faton Bauta was overmatched, but I will say that the game plan put together by Helen Hunt and Brian Schottenheimer sucked.  They should have leaned on the run game and allowed Bauta to run more read-option stuff, and then go to play-action passes.  Desperate times may call for desperate measures, but that was simply a panic move.  The Florida front seven played very well, and the rotation along the D-Line is really paying off now – those guys are fresh in the second half, and are winning the battle on the LOS.  Georgia has a solid O-Line, but the Gators more often than not had their way.  Tank Morrison and Jarrad Davis continue to wreak havoc at LB, while the secondary simply outclassed the Puppy receivers.  Marcus Maye had another diving interception, and Jalen Tabor’s effort to tip an end zone pass at the last second to Keanu Neal was a great play and the final nail in the doghouse.

Florida’s offense was occasionally painful to watch.  Treon Harris struggled again in the short passing game, but was able to make enough big plays on 3rd down or in a scramble situation to offset his inaccuracy.  His TD throw to Antonio Callaway that stretched the lead to 13-0 allowed the offense to relax somewhat.  I was pleasantly surprised by the effectiveness of the running game.  Kelvin Taylor had another good game, and Jordan Scarlett provided some fresh legs and big runs in the second half as the Puppy defense started to wear down.  Taylor’s game has really improved as the season has progressed – he is running more north and south, and is firmly planting his foot and making quick cuts upfield.  Scarlett should get more snaps going forward, and will be a good complement to Taylor.  The play of the O-Line and coaching of Mike Summers have to be recognized.  This group will never be considered even very good, but they have fought hard all season, and have shown marked improvement.  It’s good that Harris is mobile, as the pass-blocking will continue to struggle against better defenses, but Summers has worked a minor miracle with this unit.

Special teams are still a mixed bag.  The kick coverage units were solid less one kickoff return set up by a penalty forcing a kickoff from the 20.  Florida received a gift on it’s first score when Reggie Davis fumbled a punt inside his own 5-yard line into the end zone for a Gator TD – another example of bad coaching.  Austin Hardin continues to excel on kickoffs, but his FG kicking is simply awful.  His head is so screwed up right now that he may be a basket case the rest of the season…..and it could cost Florida eventually.  Johnny Townsend punted very well all day – he pinned UGA inside it’s own 20 repeatedly, putting even more pressure on a young QB and helping his defense by forcing a long field on the Puppies.

Now it’s finally back to the Swamp for Homecoming against Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have taken a huge step back to where they traditionally are – at or near the bottom of the standings.  Their defense has played very well under Head Coach Derek Mason, but their offense has been horrendous……Will Misschump-level horrendous.  They will hope to make this an ugly, low-scoring game, and somehow try to steal a win late.  However, the current Gator staff has done a fine job of limiting penalties and turnovers, which are really the only chance Vandy has.  I expect a vanilla offensive game plan, and not much scoring.  The Florida O-Line has a few guys banged up who may not play much if at all this week – LT David Sharpe and LG Martez Ivey, so we’ll see how Coach Summers handles the thin depth chart and cobbles together a lineup.  This will hamper the offense, so I would not be surprised at all with a close score going into the second half.

Here’s what you’re gonna get with Harris at QB:

1) The staff will hopefully have about 6 scripted pass plays that he is comfortable with and executes well in practice.

2) There will be about 12 “bread-and-butter” plays that the staff can go to throughout the game (maybe with various formations, but the same basic plays).

3) The rest?  Pure sandlot……just hope for the best.

That’s it.  Just hope the defense doesn’t break down like at LSU, and that Hardin gets his mind right and starts making some FGs.  Essentially, the term I’d use for the offense the rest of 2015 is “limited”.

The Gator defense should control the flow of the game, and the ‘Dores should wear down in the second half.  We’ll see how the team reacts to success and if they can keep their edge mentally, play hard this week against an outmanned opponent, and not think about the stakes in play for what could turn out to be a big season.

Prediction:  Florida 24      Vanderbilt 7

After a week off to rest and work on fundamentals, the biggest game of the season so far now looms in Jacksonville, as Florida takes on Georgia.  The Puppies will be bent on revenge after getting run over all day long in last year’s beatdown loss to the Gators.  We’ll see how well the players have used the bye week, and if the coaching staff has developed an effective game plan and has the team sharp from the start.

Georgia’s strength on offense is still it’s running game, despite the loss of Nick Chubb.  Sony Michel is a threat as a runner and receiver, and the Gator defense will have to account for him every play.  The Puppies have been inconsistent all season throwing the ball, but this is a desperate time for Coach Helen Hunt, and I expect more throws on first down to break tendencies.  TE Jay Rome is a big target, WR Malcolm Mitchell is QB Greyson Lambert’s favorite target and has seemingly been in school for 6 years (probably still only a sophomore in credits earned), WR Reggie Davis isn’t a burner but has size, and Michel is a weapon on screens and wheel routes.  The best unit on this side of the ball, though, is the O-Line, one of the best run-blocking groups in the SEC.

This will another tough challenge for Florida’s D-Line, which did not distinguish itself against LSU, and needs to play the run better this week.  Jon Bullard and Caleb Brantley must be stout and hold their gaps, allowing LBs Jarrad Davis and Tank Morrison better lanes to the ball carriers.  DBU was embarrassed by breakdowns in coverage at LSU, and needs to respond with a dominant performance this week.  Georgia does not have any real game-breaker at WR, so the DBs should have an advantage.  The safeties need to account for the TE and not be overly focused on supporting the run defense.  Coach Pricht uses play-action often to exploit the seam routes and the middle of the field, and uses the screen pass extensively on 3rd and long.  These tendencies have to be known by the Gator staff, so those plays should not come as any surprise and be well-defended.

Florida has to run the ball much better than at LSU, because Treon Harris can’t be relied on to carry the day having to throw the ball exclusively.  Kelvin Taylor needs some help, as he has carried a heavy load of carries so far this season.  Hopefully Jordan Scarlett or Jordan Cronkrite are ready to step up and provide some carries to keep a fresh rotation.  Once again the TEs, starting with Jake McGee, will be relied upon to help Harris out and keep the chains moving.  Here’s hoping that WR Demarcus Robinson has another game like he did against Ole Miss, providing enough of a threat the keep the secondary honest and allowing Brandon Powell and Antonio Callaway room underneath.  If the offense can’t stay on schedule on early downs, it could be a long day.

Georgia’s defense is led by DE Leonard Floyd, and LBs Jordan Jenkins and Jake Ganus.  While their front seven has been solid most of the season, their secondary has struggled in coverage, and they were shredded by both Alabama and Tennessee, two offenses that have not been especially prolific this year.  They will be primed to stop the run after last year’s debacle, but Florida has struggled to run the ball all season, so we will see if the Gators can exploit a weak pass defense often enough to move the ball and score TDs in the red zone.

Florida’s special teams are starting to gel.  Callaway has been solid on punt returns, and the kick coverage units have improved.  A big key will be the performance of PK Austin Hardin, who did well at LSU despite still not being 100% healthy.  Coach Mac has shown little confidence in Hardin making FGs, and this could become a game-changing problem soon.  With the season-ending injury to Jorge Powell, the staff actually had to have open tryouts for a walk-on kicker……something that should never have to happen at Florida.

The winner of this game essentially wins the East Division, so the stakes are high.  It’s hard to say how Harris will perform with a lot of pressure to win this game, and the Puppies will have extra motivation after last year’s big loss, getting physically manhandled the entire game.  Florida (sadly) has not been in a big game like this since 2012, and It will be interesting to see how the players react to the pressure.  A win puts the Gators in Atlanta barring a rash of key injuries or a Misschump-like implosion.  Losing this game would dampen a lot of the good feelings the team has generated through 7 games, and make the Gators rely on other teams to help them win the East.

It’s my 36th consecutive Florida-Georgia game, and this one will be interesting with all of the unique subplots surrounding it.  Here’s hoping for a Gator victory and the chance to build on a very good season to date, and keep up the positive recruiting momentum.

Prediction:  Florida 24        Georgia 20

That was a great game in Death Valley against LSU. Florida gave the Tigers all they wanted and more, and were in a position to tie or win late in the game despite a few egregious mistakes.  This team has really developed well so far, and credit must be given to both the players and the coaching staff.

The offensive staff did a great job of scheming plays to score upon in the red zone, especially the 2 TD throws to Jake McGee, possibly the offensive MVP up to now.  They did a decent job of designing some rollouts for Treon Harris to get him outside the pocket so he could see the field better and possibly run.  However, the inability of the O-Line to generate any movement in running game finally cost the team, as the offense really had no balance the entire night.  Kelvin Taylor rarely had any running room, and that allowed LSU to simply pressure Harris and blitz when they wanted to.  Harris played well considering the circumstances, but his flaws were on display against a good defense.  He is painfully inaccurate on short throws, often short-arming or trying to guide them.  He struggles to check down if his first option is not available.  Finally, his situational awareness has to improve – taking sacks and not getting rid of the ball to avoid negative plays really cost the offense, especially in the 4th quarter.  The staff has to find a way to get these thoughts into his head going forward.

Antonio Callaway is still far from a polished WR, but continues to make big plays. His catch along the sideline late in the 2nd quarter leading the Florida’s second TD exhibited great concentration, and his punt return to tie the game late in the 3rd quarter was a thing of beauty.  He’s not a blazer, but seems to have the kind of game speed that makes him just fast enough to break long plays.  Not having Will Grier definitely hurts the intermediate and deep passing game, though.  Demarcus Robinson was double-covered most of the night, and Brandon Powell is not a true WR – he still looks like a former RB who now plays in the slot, and is not enough of a threat to help the other WRs gain some room.

So much for all the talk of DBU.  The secondary essentially lost the game.  Keanu Neal and Vernon Hargreaves were beaten by the flea-flicker play, and Marcus Maye simply lost the ball at the end of the 2nd quarter – the play that pretty much gave LSU the margin it needed to win.  Even Quincy Wilson misplayed the fade route that LSU scored on 3rd down in the second quarter.  This group needs to eat some humble pie and re-focus, because they let the entire team down.  I will give some props to Neal, though, as he played well in run support, racking up 14 tackles.

The front seven played a decent game against LSU’s running game, but still had some lapses in playing their gaps which were exploited by Leonard Fournette.  That guy is a load – definitely the best RB in the SEC in many years.  The lack of LB depth really showed itself, as Jarrad Davis and Tank Morrison were gassed by the 3rd quarter, and missed some tackles they usually make.

I do have some criticism for the staff.  When will Coach Mac ever challenge a dubious call by the officials?  Bryan Cox’ fumble recovery looked legit, and Callaway’s sideline catch late in the 1st quarter was in bounds.  Coach Mac made a huge tactical error not punting late in the game, eventually guaranteeing the offense would have to go 90 yards with no time outs and only 90 seconds left.  You simply have to punt the ball away in that situation, lean on the defense to get a stop, and try and obtain decent field position for a possible last drive.  Finally, I simply could not believe the staff was not ready for the fake FG that gave LSU it’s winning TD.  Les Miles has screwed over many teams during his stay in Baton Rouge, especially Florida.  Plus, a lot of the current Gator staff has coached in the SEC, and should know what to expect.  Just play a “safe” scheme on the edges, and at worst you’re only losing by a FG.  That came home to roost late in the game, as the Gators drove inside the 30, but were down 7.  Perhaps Mac was spooked by Jorge Powell’s injury, leaving only Austin Hardin as a PK, but at least Hardin made his extra points, and kicked the ball off consistently into the end zone – a pleasant surprise for coming off of a hip injury.

Florida now has a week off to rest, recuperate, and prepare for a huge game against Georgia that will likely decide the East Division winner.  It will be interesting to see how the young guys use this time.  Will they continue to work hard to improve?  Will they become too full of themselves after a very good start to the season?  The coaching staff will be out recruiting for much of the off week, but has another challenge ahead in preparing the Gators for the annual trip to Jacksonville.

I’ll be back next week with my Georgia preview.  Go Gators!

Another challenge, and another step forward for the Florida Gators.  Going on the road to face a tough defense with a target on your back for the first time in 3 years is no small task, and the Gators responded with a terrific defensive effort to shut down Missouri, and never allow them any real momentum.  The Gator D-Line was in the backfield all night, getting sacks and lots of pressure on the freshman QB.  The secondary allowed a few plays on the Tiger’s first drive, then settled in and closed the door.  Jalen Tabor recorded his second pick six, while Vernon Hargreaves, Quincy Wilson, and Brian Poole all made life miserable for the WRs.  Jarrad Davis and Antonio Morrison continue to fly around at LB and clean up plays.  This was the first time Missouri was held without a TD at home in 10 seasons – a nice way to send the message that the past 2 seasons are the exception, not the rule.

The start of the game was everything you could hope for, as the offense put together 2 long scoring drives to quiet the crowd and give the defense the leverage it needed to crush Mizzou – finally getting some payback for the past two dreadful games against them.  The O-Line did a solid job of opening enough running lanes to allow Kelvin Taylor to gash the Tigers early, and take pressure off of Will Grier and the passing game.  Again, that’s been the formula for success this season – establishing just enough running game and balance to give the passing game the chance to make some plays.

After the first quarter, the rest of the game became the ugly affair I thought it might be – 2 strong defenses making things difficult on two offenses still searching for their identity.  Fortunately, Florida’s offense was led by the better QB and a game plan that was good enough.  Once the Gators took the lead, it appeared the staff was content to play things very safe and allow the defense to choke the life out of the Tigers – which they did to great effect.

So much for the good news……

Instead of a Saturday night showdown with LSU in Death Valley between two Top 10 teams preparing to rumble, all the talk is about Florida losing Will Grier for the rest of the season due to an NCAA suspension for violating the PED rules.  Apparently he failed a drug test by taking a supplement that contained a banned substance.  Grier fell on his sword and admitted he didn’t tell the nutritional staff about it so it could be vetted, and now he’s paying a terrible price.  Discussing Grier’s decision-making and it’s ramifications on this will have to wait for another time, as that is an entire subject of it’s own.

What a bitter pill to swallow after a magical run so far.

I am confident that the coaching staff will handle things as well as possible in getting the team ready.  But there is a dearth of upperclassmen leadership on this team, and this could have a devastating effect if the offense struggles like it did last year.  Treon Harris is the default starter now, and has to find a way to shake off the disappointment of losing the starting job and lead the offense.  Unfortunately there’s no time for a slow acclimation, as I can already smell the corn dogs in the parking lot outside Tiger Stadium – those crazed, drunken Cajuns all excited about a night game, against a team that has to be distracted.  This will be another level of intensity that the Gators have not experienced yet, and the coaching staff has another huge challenge ahead in preparing the team to play fast and efficiently, despite the noise and adversity it will face.

Harris hasn’t been the QB during the positive development of the offense the past month.  He is behind in practice reps, and became the backup for a reason – the staff determined Grier was better.  Harris did show occasionally last year he could throw a decent deep ball, but really struggled with short and intermediate throws.  He also simply doesn’t not read coverages as well as Grier.  Look for a painfully-reduced playcall sheet this Saturday, with maybe the occasional surprise schemed up to hopefully make a big play.  The O-Line has struggled in establishing a consistent running game all season, and now defenses will start to crowd the box like the past 2 seasons until Florida proves it can pass downfield effectively with Harris at QB.  Kelvin Taylor is gonna need some Advil, as he will take a lot of punishment going forward trying to keep the offense somewhat balanced.  Jordan Cronkrite is not getting too many touches in a backup role, and Jordan Scarlett is in the doghouse and may not play again this week.  There’s no way Taylor makes it through the rest of the season healthy with his current workload.

It’s time to really try and take advantage of Demarcus Robinson on fade routes, deep balls, and jump balls to try and get a few big plays in the passing game.  The staff needs to get Brandon Powell and Antonio Callaway more involved.  The TEs, led by Jake McGee, have to find a way to get open and help take some pressure off of Harris.  If the running game is stuffed, that really hurts the screen game as well, as the defense will crowd the LOS, daring the Gators to go deep.  Florida has to try and utilize the middle of the field in the passing game to try and loosen up what should be a crowded box to start the game.

The Gator defense will have to play even better than it has going forward…..and that’s saying something.  The real test will be the players not trying to do too much, and overpursuing and taking bad angles on tackles.  That would be death going against LSU’s running game, which is centered around Leonard Fournette, the likely Heisman frontrunner and a once-in-a-generation talent at RB.  He has size, speed, and power, and can even do damage as a receiver.  No matter how the Tigers may scheme up some trick plays or break tendencies early to try for some big plays, their attack will eventually be focused on getting Fournette 25-30 touches.  He’s good enough that even if he is stopped often, he will likely break a long run for a TD no matter how good the defense is.  Of course, the best way to neutralize Fournette is to either have a strong offense of your own that can eat the clock to shorten the game, or get a big early lead to force LSU to try and win with it’s passing game.  That would be a real advantage for Florida, as Brandon Harris is simply not a quality passer, and can make mistakes if forced to make plays on his own.  The Gator secondary can’t sleep on WRs Travin Dural or Malachi Dupree – those guys are very talented and were recruited by every major program.  They just haven’t had the QBs to help them make more big plays than they have so far – I can only hope that continues for another week.

It’s been a wonderful rise back to prominence for Florida, and I do believe this staff can develop a game plan good enough to win in such a tough environment.  However, I simply don’t see enough consistency and balance on offense to score enough points, or see the Gator O-Line doing enough to allow Harris and the WRs the chance to win the game.  The great equalizer can be turnovers or a few big returns by the special teams.  The defense is capable of generating those turnovers, but they are less likely when the opponent can play a more conservative game knowing the Gator offense is struggling.  Also, there has been no evidence to date that Florida has the return game to either flip the field or get some momentum-changing scores.  It is really tough to predict what will happen with so much sudden change, but it’s even harder to think that a special season could become only a good one.

Prediction:  LSU 27        Florida 17