Florida heads to the Bluegrass State to take on Kentucky Saturday night, in a game that has no interest or juice outside of two disappointed fan bases.  Both teams have struggled on offense, and have defenses that have carried their respective team for much of the season but are now starting to crack under the constant pressure to keep the game within reach.  I can’t wait!

The Gator offense showed some life last week against Georgia, but ultimately scored only 20 points due to erratic QB play and an underperforming O-line.  And now things are even worse, with injuries sidelining WRs Dallas Wilson and Tre Wilson.  Vernell Brown III is a game time decision, and even if he plays he won’t be 100% healthy.  This likely means the Wildcat defense can load up to stop the run, and it could be another long night for Jaden Baugh to try and keep the chains moving and give DJ Lagway and the remaining receivers a chance at victory.  I expect Kentucky to blitz early and often to exploit the shaky play of Lagway and the O-line – it could be a real struggle for them.  Unless Brown, J Michael Sturdivant, or Aidan Mizell somehow can make a few big plays, this could get ugly, and against a bad Kentucky team that Florida normally should defeat handily.  It may be time to give some snaps to true freshman Naeshaun Montgomery, who impressed in fall practice.  The coaching staff needs to give Lagway some quick throws to beat the pressure and generate a few scoring drives.  Kentucky’s leading tacklers are LB Alex Afari Jr. and DBs Ty Bryant and Jordan Lovett, which indicates that perhaps Florida can generate a running game against a Wildcat D-line that has not impressed this season.

The Gator defense should have a marked advantage over a Kentucky offense that has been bad against SEC competition.  The QB play between starter Cutter Boley and Zack Calzada has been inefficient and lacking in explosive plays.  Calzada may have to start due to injuries to Boley, and if he does play the Florida front seven will need to apply pressure and force him into mistakes.  The Wildcats, as usual, depend on their running game, led by RBs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell.  Neither is a particular threat to break a long run, but both are tough inside runners that can break tackles.  UK’s passing game has struggled all season, and Florida’s secondary needs to make sure that continues to give the offense enough chances to score points.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops will do his usual in these circumstances – ugly up the game, try to control the clock and win time of possession, and hope the opponent implodes with turnovers.  What’s scary is that it could actually work – again – against a Gator offense lacking in confidence and playmakers right now.  I’m hopeful that somehow the coaching staff can squeeze enough out of the guys that can play and get out of Lexington with a close win.  If the defense can generate some turnovers of it’s own, the job will be much easier, but something tells me that this will be another game decided in the 4th quarter.  The fear is that the team may have little left in the tank mentally or physically after taking Georgia to the limit last week, and that the carryover effect may be a detrimental one.  It’s hard to believe Florida has lost it’s last 2 trips to Lexington, and could lose again.

Prediction:

Florida 20

Kentucky 17

Florida gave Georgia all they wanted and more on Saturday.  However, like so many other times since 2022, the Gators faded in the 4th quarter due to some questionable play calls, sketchy QB play, and a defense that cracked at the worst time.

As I hoped, the offense came out with some added juice without the anchor that was Rural Meyer holding them down.  DJ Lagway was accurate early, and Tre Wilson came straight off of a milk carton to make some impact plays, including a 42 yard TD reception after a Lagway scramble to tie the game at 7.  It was a nice response to Georgia’s opening TD drive, and provided a peek at how close this game would turn out to be.  Florida had another nice drive on it’s next possession to take a 10-7 lead before the 1st quarter ended, with a clutch 54-yard FG bomb from Trey Smack.  Then, both offenses were pretty much shut down until the Bulldogs scored just before halftime, set up by a short punt.  By then the Gators had less than 30 yards rushing, and they had to make some adjustments during the break.  After Georgia scored on their first possession of the 3rd quarter to take a 17-10 lead, you could feel the momentum swing their way, and the Gators needed to respond.  And eventually they did, tying the game at 17 midway through the quarter with a more balanced drive that saw the running game start to have an impact.  After getting the ball back following a bad Bulldog punt, Florida took the lead 20-17.  And here’s where the game was decided.  After the Gator defense got the ball back, Florida executed one of it’s best drives of the season, a methodical mix of quick passes and tough runs to drive inside the UGA 30-yard line with just under 7 minutes to play.  And then……the wheels fell off.  After Lagway was stopped just short on 3rd down and 3, interim coach Billy Gonzales seemed to suddenly become possessed by the ghost of Billy Napier.  I was fine giving the ball to your best player – Jaden Baugh – on 4th down, but I absolutely hated the bunch formation, which made it too easy for the Bulldogs to stuff him on the carry.  And just like that, everything changed.  Georgia drove right down the field for the go-ahead TD.  Florida tried to respond, but Lagway grossly underthrew J Michael Sturdivant on a broken play, wiping out a potential long pass completion down to the Bulldog 25-yard line.  That was followed by a missed read on a 4th down pass, and the game was essentially over.  Georgia ran out the clock and Florida never touched the ball again.

The Gator defense played well in spurts throughout the game, but never could make the key stop to secure the win.  Allowing an opening TD drive was disappointing, as QB Gunnar Stockton passed at will for an easy score.  The defense responded well after that, stopping the Bulldogs most of the rest of the half, until……giving up the go-ahead TD right before the half.  After letting the Bulldogs stretch their lead to 7 on the first possession of the second half, the defense again stiffened until the failed Gator 4th-down run, and after that simply could not get off the field.  Too many 3rd-down conversions allowed – collapsing at precisely the worst time.  There were some heroic efforts from a handful of the linemen and LBs, and even the Edge rushers finally showed up for a few sacks and key stops.  But there’s just enough lack of experience and elite talent to get close, but not quite to, the finish line against good competition.

It was a solid effort, and with a few better coaching decisions and more consistent execution from Lagway, the upset was there for the taking.  Instead, it became a trick instead of a treat the day after Halloween, and the Florida football program remains haunted after another failed coaching tenure.  Lagway’s play has been far short of the hype and NIL payments he has received, and the criticism is growing louder……much of it warranted.  Despite the documented injuries, his judgement and reading of coverages has been poor throughout 2025, and it has directly cost Florida wins over USF, LSU, and now Georgia.  Will we see Gonzales go to the bullpen to perhaps find a spark with another QB, or even light a fire under Lagway?  It’s doubtful, but it should have happened already earlier in the season.  We’ll see how well the staff can rally the team to play a good game at Kentucky.  My fear, though, is that the players may be on the verge of losing focus and intensity, and the rest of the season turns even uglier.

Well, this edition of The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party got a shot of juice of a different kind with the unceremonious firing of Rural Meyer.  Gator Nation’s 45-game nightmare is over, and the process of starting to move forward can begin.

There’s a lot of optimism about the potential of seeing an offense based in the 21st century again.  WR coach Billy Gonzales is the interim head coach, and stated in his initial press conference that the offensive attack should look more wide-open and aggressive, and utilize DJ Lagways’s strengths more often.  That sounds good in theory, but unless the O-line plays a LOT better, no offense is going to look good.  If the plan is to spread the field with additional WRs, you’d better make sure that Lagway gets the ball out of his hand quickly and decisively, or he’ll get eaten alive.  He’s already playing on one leg, and not having a mobile QB against the UGA defense is putting yourself at a disadvantage.  Jaden Baugh and the running game still have to be the engine behind any game plan, and he’ll need to have a big game to give the Gators a chance.  I’m sure WRs Dallas Wilson and VB3 are excited to show out – I just hope they’re given the opportunity.  The other change I hope to see is a big change in the down-and-distance tendencies.  It became a running joke among the fan base that they could call the plays themselves based on the situation and formation……and that was true far too often.  Thus the repeated instances of Napier getting stuffed into a locker by opposing defensive coordinators who actually could tell what was coming pre-snap, and openly talked about it afterwards.  It’s far past time to change that narrative.  Interestingly, Georgia’s defense is led this season more by it’s LBs and secondary than it’s D-line.  LBs CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson are by far their leading tacklers, and CB KJ Bolden is one of the better players in the SEC.  The hope is that Florida’s O-line and TEs can actually open some holes for the run game, and that the Bulldogs’ weaker-than-usual pass rush can be handled just enough to allow Lagway enough time to actually make plays.

Florida’s defense has held together in the front seven despite injuries to the DT rotation and being forced into playing young, inexperienced guys.  LB Myles Graham has been terrific all season, and his leadership has held the front together so far.  Unfortunately……he can’t help the secondary.  The Gators were forced into playing 4 true freshmen and a senior scout team player against Mississippi St., and no one knows who will be available going forward.  Georgia’s offense has not been as run-dominant this year as in previous seasons, as they have been more balanced and relied more on the passing game led by QB Gunnar Stockton.  Surprisingly, he has shown some development as a passer, and is a consistent threat when scrambling or on a designed run.  The Bulldogs split carries evenly among two solid RBs in Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens.  Neither is particularly explosive, but run hard and gain yards after contact.  Zachariah Branch and Colbie Young lead a WR corps that are more of a ball-control group than producing big plays.  Florida will have to employ a spy on Stockton occasionally, and they have to find a way to get more pressure from their pass rush.  Based on the season to date, I feel the Gator front seven should be able to control the running game, but have the added pressure of getting pressure on the QB to help out the depleted secondary.  I don’t know if a coaching change will have any positive effect on the disappointing play from the Edge rushers, but it would be a revelation at this point if they finally decided to show up this week.  

At least there’s a spark of interest and excitement again.  But as much as I’d like it, I don’t see Florida winning.  Unless the Gator O-line and injured secondary far exceed their performance to date, the Bulldogs have too much talent and depth.  Perhaps the coaching change is worth an extra TD to the offense, but that won’t be enough.  Georgia will have to help the Gators by giving up some turnovers and playing less than their best.  Additionally, even with Florida struggling – again – Kirby Smart feels the same way about the Gators that Steve Spurrier did about the Bulldogs.  I can’t see him allowing his team to sleepwalk through this one.

Prediction:

Georgia 34

Florida 17

Say goodbye to the least-successful, most unpopular head coach of Florida Football since Bear Wolf graced the sidelines from 1946-1949.  Billy Napier finally used up all of the chances he was given (too many), and this brutal chapter can finally end.

There is so much to unpack it’s difficult to know where to start.  I suppose we’ll have to go all the way back to 2022, when the red flags already started to fly.  At his introductory press conference, Napier talked a lot about a “process”, a “plan”, and how Gator fans probably wouldn’t like him too much to begin with.  Well, the “process” was excruciatingly slow and ill-planned, the “plan” was nothing more than word salad for “I’ll try to figure this out as time goes by”, and he was spot on about how Gator Nation would feel.  It’s quite possible his best game at Florida was his very first – that exciting down-to-the-wire win over Utah led by Anthony Richardson and an end-zone interception by the defense to save the game.  Even then, the first issues started to appear – head-scratching playcalling, a defense that looked lost much of the night, and some loose special teams.  Richardson’s legs covered for a lot of problems early, but then a crippling loss against an outmanned Vanderbilt killed any late-season momentum and the Gators finished the regular season 6-6.  That was followed by a horrific bowl game loss to Oregon St., and a losing final record……with more to come.  As with most 1st-year head coaches, the first recruiting class was a mixed bag, but 2 key portal acquisitions helped to carry the offense all season – OL O’Cyrus Torrance from Napier’s former school, and WR Ricky Pearsall.

Season 2 began with a rematch at Utah, and the real serious questions started to be asked immediately.  Utah had to play their QB3 due to injuries, yet the defense gave up too many big plays, and never adjusted to a simple running QB.  DC Patrick Toney had left for the NFL after 2022 – probably to save from being fired from Florida.  Napier inexplicably hired a 28-year old LB coach from Alabama in Austin Armstrong, and immediately he was in over his head – and the players and assistant defensive coaches knew it.  Even with new QB Graham Mertz being the perfect QB for Napier’s sloth attack, being efficient is not always being effective.  The offense was inconsistent the entire season, and the defense was the worst in almost 70 years.  It culminated with giving up almost 700 yards at LSU, while handing the Heisman Trophy to Jayden Daniels – allowing him to rush for over 200 yards and throw for over 300 yards.  An epic failure that would lead to some coaching changes…..just not the right ones.  Napier stubbornly opted to stick with Boy Blunder, and fired two experienced, successful position coaches instead after they openly called out Armstrong during the season.  After somehow starting out 5-2, the Gators collapsed with 5 straight losses and no bowl game.  The last game was at home against undefeated Florida St.who were in line for a Playoff bid but had lost their starting QB the week before, just like the Gators had.  In the battle of the backups, Florida had a 12-0 lead late in the second quarter and had possession in F$U territory.  Instead of riding the momentum of the running game, Napier called a double-reverse pass attempt behind an O-line that struggled all season to pass block, and with his backup QB.  The play failed miserably, F$U went down the field for a TD just before the half, and what should have been a satisfying victory with the added pleasure of ending the Seminoles’ Playoff run was dashed.  The offseason was a rocky one, with key players leaving via the portal and taking pointed shots at Napier when they left.  And a potentially solid recruiting class was gutted by 5 defensive targets decommitting as the 5-game losing streak continued.  Oh yes – and speaking of recruiting, let’s not forget the sh*t show that was the recruitment of QB Jaden Rashada.  Napier stupidly got himself involved in a bidding war between Miami and Florida for the services of a QB that didn’t sign with either, has subsequently enrolled at 3 different schools, and only played at one – Sacramento St.  Even worse, Rashada has sued Florida, the Gator Collective, and Napier for reneging on promised signing bonuses, and the case is still in it’s discovery phase.  What an embarrassment.

The 2024 season began with a lot of talk from Napier and his acolytes about how this team was ready to make some noise.  Well, they sure did.  The season opener was a home game against the rival Miami Hurricanes, and the Gators got their ass kicked.  Once again they jump-started another QB’s Heisman campaign – this time it was Cam Ward.  After the game, Miami’s defensive coaches openly talked about how they knew what play was coming just from looking at film from the previous season – same formations, same motion, same tendencies for down-and-distance, etc.  It was another public humiliation for both Napier and the program……and it wouldn’t end there.  Two weeks later, Texas A&M came to Gainesville with a true freshman QB making his first-ever start.  And, you guessed it……the defense stunk it up, the Aggies won easily, and a QB controversy started after Mertz struggled and DJ Lagway played decently in relief.  In both losses, the Gators looked terribly unprepared, and were out of both games at halftime.  A few weeks later Mertz was injured at Tennessee, and despite the defense playing perhaps it’s best game under Napier to that point, his poor playcalling and clock mismanagement led directly to an overtime loss.  Injuries started to mount up – again – including Lagway being hurt in another loss to Georgia.  Things got so bad that AD Scott Stricklin had to issue the dreaded “vote of confidence” in Napier.  Great timing, as Florida traveled to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns for the first time in almost 80 years and had to start QB3.  It was 35-0 at the half and 42-0 after the first Texas drive of the 3rd quarter.  If the losses to Miami and Texas A&M weren’t the right time to fire Napier, surely it was now, RIGHT?!  And then……something weird happened.  Lagway came back to start even though he was playing hurt.  In even bigger news, it was learned that the defensive players had gone directly to Napier and said that Boy Blunder’s defense was trash, and they wanted to simplify things.  With his job on the line – again – Napier acquiesced, allowing an adult in Ron Roberts to take over calling the defense.  Miraculously, the defense came alive.  Somehow, some way, that combination of events allowed the Gators to upset both LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive games at the Swamp to become bowl-eligible and unfortunately save Napier’s job.  This was followed by a win in Taliban City against the worst F$U team since 1974 and then a bowl game win over a Tulane team gutted by portal defections.  Neither Lagway nor the Gators looked especially good in either of the last two games, but by then Napier Nation was hyperventilating and proclaiming that he had turned the program around.  I even had a friend who liked Napier poke me and ask if I thought Napier deserved another season.  My answer was; not really, but he damn sure had better show continuous improvement in 2025.  So……

So……we come to 2025.  Napier is claiming all offseason that this is his best team since he’s been at Florida, that this is his best O-line, and best overall roster.  Oh yeah – don’t mind the fact that Lagway hasn’t practiced from December until 2 weeks before the season started due to various injuries, and that other key positions like DT and safety weren’t addressed through the portal.  In fact, the only portal acquisition of note was a punter.  All right Billy……show me.  Well, he certainly did.  The opener against a severely outmatched LIU team was nothing more than a glorified scrimmage, and even then the O-line allowed 11 TFLs, which was preposterous.  But the Napier worshipers sang the praises, pointed out the high ranking, and said the Gators were “back”.  OK.  Next up was USF, coming off of a 7-6 season and incorporating a lot of new starters on both sides of the ball.  This would be a step up in competition, but still an easy win for Florida……RIGHT?!  Welp, Billy crapped the bed – again – calling a horrific game on offense and allowing the Bulls to steal an 18-16 win that rattled the foundation of the church of Napier, and it never recovered.  By now the majority of Gator Nation had finally seen the light, and the criticism was withering.  Still, Florida could turn things around with a big-time bounceback win at LSU and renew the preseason promise.  That game was there for the taking, as the Gator defense played very well, holding Tigers to just 10 points through 3 quarters.  But NOTHING could overcome a complete meltdown by Lagway – 5 interceptions, including a pick-6, and completely gutting any chance for a victory while shattering his confidence.  His mechanics were just as bad as when he arrived on campus 18 months ago, and he couldn’t seem to read a basic zone defense.  All the talk about how Napier was going to allow Russ Callaway to actually act as an offensive coordinator was exposed as a lie, and not the first one from Napier.  He had claimed that Lagway had thrown passes over the summer, and that he was practicing from the start of fall practice.  Then, after things started falling apart – again – he backtracked on both stories, and eroded what little good will he had left.  This loss was then followed by a trip to Miami.  This was a chance for Napier and the Gators to get revenge for last season’s beatdown and the embarrassing talk afterwards.  The defense came ready to play, and despite a ton of injuries, played hard for 3 quarters, holding the ‘Canes to 13 points and giving the offense plenty of opportunities.  However……Napier’s offense hit rock bottom, totalling only 32 yards of offense by halftime while hanging the defense out to dry.  He then had the nerve to say at halftime for all the nation to hear that the defense should have got off the field faster and given the offense a shorter field to work from.  Completely clueless and tone deaf, and he looked exactly like the bumpkin many across the country saw him as.  The Gators eventually suffered a dispiriting 26-7 loss.  Allegedly at this point things started happening behind the scenes with talks of firing Napier and starting a coaching search, but Stricklin held on at least publicly in support of Napier, while privately praying for a miracle like what happened at the end of 2024.  After a LONG bye week of speculation about Billy’s job status, the Gators rallied with a surprising win over Texas at The Swamp, and the roller coaster was in full effect – again.  This time, however, it didn’t end the same for Rural Meyer.  Florida traveled to College Station for another revenge opportunity, and actually were in the game up until halftime, down 21-14.  But Napier essentially wrote his death sentence by doing much of the same crap from his previous 43 games.  He failed to aggressively try to get some points with 2 minutes left in the 1st half, called his telegraphed plays for most of the second half, and realized too late he should assist his struggling O-line with it’s pass blocking by having a TE help the tackles out.  The defense eventually cracked – again, the offense did nothing – again, and the Gators faded to another loss – again.  It was pretty much the nail in the coffin as evidenced by his firing the following week even after winning the Homecoming game.  But Billy went down swinging, allowing a Mississippi St. team that hadn’t won a conference game since 2023 to hang around, and putting the coup-de-grace on his playcalling career with a final call that had the Swamp crowd chanting ‘Fire Billy” and giving MSU an opportunity to steal a win.  Instead of riding Jaden Baugh and giving him the carry on 3rd down and short against a tired Bulldog defense, he stupidly called a bootleg by the mummified Lagway, and he was tackled for an easy loss, forcing the Gators to punt.  This forced the defense to take the field once more, playing most of the game with 4 true freshmen in the secondary due to injuries.  Sure enough, MSU started to roll down the field and got into field goal position with still over a minute left.  Then, in what can only be described as divine intervention or tragicomedy, their QB threw an interception to a defensive lineman dropping into pass coverage.  You can’t make this stuff up.  The last image of Billy Napier will be him running off the field to a chorus of boos, with Stricklin avoiding getting near him.

Hubris.  Stubbornness.  High-school level schemes and play calls.  Failure to aggressively fill roster holes through the portal.  Firing experienced, successful assistant coaches in favor of underperforming and overmatched defensive coordinators.  Being forced into a coaching change on defense by a player mutiny.  A complete failure at constructing a 4- or 2-minute offense.  Stating repeatedly that you want to be a running team, yet never recruiting legit talent and depth along the O-line.  Coddling your starting QB for 18 months, allowing his family to cow you into not doing the right thing and coaching him hard to correct terrible mechanics.  Asking for and being given more personnel and facility resources than any previous Gator football coach, and subsequently mismanaging those resources and wasting close to $60M in salary plus the buyout.  Lying about player injuries.  Reneging on a promise to your own AD to hire an autonomous offensive coordinator.  Sounding like a bumbling fool during press conferences, spouting word salad at every turn.  Billy Napier was successful at only one thing – his long con of the UAA, University, and Gator Nation.  And leaving with the Rashada lawsuit still hanging over the school and himself.  Even most of the Napier Nation collective have finally broken from the hive mind, and their heads are exploding at being duped.  It’s mind-boggling how an AD and so many fans could be brainwashed by someone so clueless.  What an abject failure.

Goodbye.

Good riddance.

Good luck ever getting another college job of note.  Maybe try high school instead.

What a waste of 4 years of everyone’s time and the University’s capital.

And Scott Stricklin should be next, but won’t, because of the lack of a permanent University President along with ‘cultural alignment’ with his cronies in the UAA and some specific Trustees.

This upcoming hire is incredibly important, and this clown will still be heading the search committee.  Anything is possible, but the chances of another failed hire far outweigh getting incredibly lucky like with basketball coach Todd Golden.  The only hope is that Stricklin will be forced into hiring a real, professional coach, with P4 credentials – either a head coach or elite coordinator from another program.  Someone that can actually excite the fan base and employ an aggressive style of play rooted in the 2020s – not 1950s – instead of another epic failure like all of his other hires in every sport other than men’s basketball.  It’s not a promising scenario based on his history, and all we can do is hope this clown is forced into an actual successful hire.     

It turned out to be a Happy Homecoming after all.  The Gators won despite Billy Napier, and Gator Nation could celebrate both a win and the firing of Rural Meyer the next day.  Talk about a win-win situation! 

The game itself was a perfect microcosm of Napier’s stay in Gainesville.  Weird and occasional mind-numbingly stupid play calls, an inconsistent performance by his QB, and what should have been an easy win at home turning into a last-possession game.  But this time, the players overcame their head coach’s efforts at sabotage and escaped with a win.  Fortunately, MSU played mostly like a typical Homecoming opponent for much of the game, or else this would have been just another loss.

Once again Jaden Baugh was the main actor for the offense.  He was unstoppable all afternoon, yet (again) did not get nearly enough touches.  He easily would have had 200+ rushing yards if he had been given more carries, and had not lost yards due to more holding penalties by the underperforming O-line, including a 60-yard TD run being called back.  Even the game announcers wondered aloud why he wasn’t getting double the number of touches, and these guys rarely see Florida play.  DJ Lagway had another roller-coaster day, hitting some sideline deep shots, but also throwing 2 bad interceptions in the red zone while being wildly inaccurate – again.  Fortunately the MSU secondary is not good, and the Gator WRs were able to get open often enough to make some big plays to set up scoring drives.  The one notable development in regards to personnel was the increased use of TE Amir Jackson, who appears to be an actual receiving threat and an athletic target.  But Napier provided his own coup-de-grace with an incredibly dumb call on 3rd down and 2 on Florida’s last possession, when getting a first down would ice the game.  He once again ignored Baugh, who was getting easy yards between the tackles against a tired Bulldog front seven, and instead chose to outsmart everyone – AGAIN – by having a hobbled Lagway roll out on a bootleg, where he was immediately tackled for a 6-yard loss.  This forced a punt to MSU, who still had more than 2 minutes of game clock and 2 timeouts, and were moving the ball in chunks against the makeshift Gator secondary the entire 4th quarter.  They immediately moved down inside the Gator 30-yard line, and everyone – fans and players – could feel what was about to happen.  You can’t make this crap up, but Billy sure can – and did – for most of 45 games.  A perfect and lasting image of his self-destructive career – the worst at Florida since the immediate post-WW2 years. 

However……

Defensively, it was all hands on deck in the secondary for Florida.  Only one starter out of five was available for the entire game – safety Byrce Thornton.  CB Devon Moore left in the 2nd quarter, and it was left up to 4 true freshmen to fill in at both safety and cornerback – Lagonza Hayward, Ben Hanks III, Onis Konanbanny, and J’Vari Flowers.  Somehow, some way, they were able to hold it together……barely.  It was really ugly at times with blown coverages and missed assignments, but that was expected given the circumstances.  Their athleticism – especially at safety – was a huge improvement.  The real revelation, however, was the unexpected player of the game, Alfonzo Allen.  The senior, who couldn’t even move beyond the scout team, was forced into action, and was flying all over the field, making 15 tackles and actually playing some decent coverage as well.  Yet he could never see the field before this game?  Wow.  His play provided just enough stability in the secondary for the defense to hold on to the end……and it easily could have been a bitter one.  But DT Michael Boireau made the play of the game, dropping into underneath coverage and intercepting a Blake Shapen throw inside the red zone.  The Bulldogs were already in FG range after Napier’s final blunder as head coach, yet Shapen bailed out the Gators with a terrible read and throw.  It was painful watching the defense start to run out of gas in the second half as the offense struggled, and they were getting gashed both by the run and pass in the 4th quarter.  Props to Myles Graham’s great play and leadership at LB for helping hold things together – barely.

The boo birds came out after Lagway’s bad interception on a late throw in the red zone in the first half, as the chants of “Fire Billy” could be heard even through the television audio.  But it crescendoed after Napier’s horrific last play call  – a fitting end to his disastrous tenure.  I’m so happy that the players got a much-needed win, as once again they won in spite of their dubious leader.  But on an even happier note, Gator Nation finally got it’s wish granted on Sunday.  I’ll have a separate article to chronicle the ignominious end of the Billy Napier Error at Florida.

Ah – fall is in the air (except in Florida).  Another fun Saturday awaits fans in Gainesville, as Homecoming is here.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs come to The Swamp for an easy victory by the Gators, sending their fans home happy and content.

RIGHT?!

Instead of what should be the scenario above, it’s DEFCON 1 in Gator Nation, as Billy Napier is in jeopardy of losing his job for terrible performance – again – allegedly.  Speculation runs rampant, the media is circling like vultures, and the fan base is far past ready for this dark period of coaching ineptitude and losing to end.  Hopefully……maybe?  

Getting back to the actual game to be played this week, this should be a good matchup for Florida’s offense.  Napier is all about the running game, and the Bulldog defense has struggled stopping it, allowing 172 yards per game.  Time for another heavy dose of Jaden Baugh, and giving a Gator O-line that can’t seem to pass block the opportunity to roll with Rural Meyer’s preferred 2 TE sets and run a simple power game.  With DJ Lagway a statue and his right leg mummified, this is the best way to protect him as well, and perhaps occasionally surprise the defense with the deep throw.  “Complimentary football” – right, Billy?

Last week’s debacle at Texas A&M was absolute proof that one of Napier’s mentors is the Swamp Donkey, er, Jim McElwain, of all people.  Donkey and his OC Doug Noosemeier, er, Nussmeier, during their glorious tenure at Florida, were infamous for scripting 2-3 opening possessions for the offense that actually were aggressive and effective, then running out of ideas and watching the offense go in the tank for the rest of the game.  Sound familiar?  Napier proves each week that he cannot process what is happening in real time, and cannot design a 2- or even 4-minute offense, nor an imaginative attack after said scripted series are provided to him by Russ Callaway.  Yet, he allows his ego and stubbornness to drag him and the entire program down for 44 games (and counting), and is well past his expiration date of the end of 2023 or after game 3 of 2024.

The Florida defense will be challenged by a fast-paced MSU offense led by QB Blake Shapen, an experienced transfer from Baylor.  He isn’t a very accurate passer, but is mobile, which the Gators have had trouble containing.  The Bulldogs have 2 solid RBs in Fluff Bothwell (who names these kids?) and Davon Booth.  They also have an explosive threat in WR Brenen Thompson who must be accounted for.  Sadly, the continued coverage struggles from the Gator safeties could spell trouble – again.  CB Devon Moore should be assigned to cover Thompson most of the game.  This Is also a chance for a bounceback performance from the young Florida D-line, who were pushed around and embarrassed last week. They need to take their poor performance to heart and play much better this week.  MSU head coach Jeff Lebby has done a very good job resurrecting that program.  Last year was terrible, but you could see some signs that his offense was starting to improve.  Now, the defense is improving, and the Bulldogs have been competitive in most of their games, including taking Tennessee to overtime at Starkville a few weeks ago before losing.  That’s what improvement actually looks like, Billy.

Until Scott Stinklin actually pulls the trigger on firing his “culturally aligned” buddy, he’s going to hope and pray that somehow, some way, Napier wriggles out of this situation – again.  It’s unprofessional and lazy at this point to keep him, and Stinklin himself should also be fired.  But with the lack of a permanent University President right now, plus a UAA that continues to prove it has no desire to have a winning football program, this is the mess the players and fans are stuck with.  Just be glad the AD and UAA members are collecting those big checks for underperforming and not accomplishing what’s in their mission statement.

Enjoy Homecoming!  

Prediction:

Florida 27

MSU 17

Same as it ever was……again.

With images of David Byrne flopping around in my head, I was there in person to watch another spectacular fail from Rural Meyer in a disheartening 34-17 loss at College Station.  Despite a good start on offense for all of 1 quarter of play, some atrocious defense coupled with 3 quarters of Napier’s ineffective sloth attack led to the usual end result.

It’s plainly obvious at this point why Napier calls the Swamp Donkey, er, Jim McElwain, a ‘mentor’.  It seems all he and Russ Callaway can do is script 2 or 3 decent sets of plays for the offense, then the rest of the game turns to……well……you know.  Just like watching the Gators under Belk Boy and Noosmeier as his OC – what a role model.  I suppose watching a combination of effective running from Jaden Baugh along with deep throws to Dallas Wilson and using the intermediate zones with the TEs having actual success is too much for Billy to process.  His brain starts to hurt and he takes over, grinding the offense and any established tempo to a halt.  Always.  Once again, his incompetence in putting together a 2-minute offense was glaringly obvious.  Florida had the ball at it’s own 40-yard line with 2 minutes left in the first half, down by only one score.  Time for Napier to kneecap any chance at scoring, calling 2 running plays first, with each and every play requiring his beloved motion from receivers and running the play clock down close to zero.  Clueless.  He essentially capitulates to the defense and refuses to get out his own way and the way of his players.  After that, he watched his offensive tackles get roasted the entire second half until midway through the 4th quarter, when the game got out of reach.  FInally, somehow, some way, Florida was still only down by 7 points and had possession near midfield with 12 minutes to go.  TIme for us fans in the stands to call the plays we knew were coming – a 3rd down run into a stuffed box, then a forced throw by Lagway to a double-covered WR while getting punished – again – by the rush.  The supposed “best O-line Napier has had at Florida” was just another lie he espoused the entire offseason, along with his lies about Lagway getting some throws in over the summer and live reps from the start of fall practice, which he has walked back in press conferences this week.  Then, he has the nerve to – again – blame his own players for lack of execution.  This time it was Baugh of all people, who Napier says “wasn’t precise in reading the hole”.  All the while Baugh is evading defenders in the backfield and making chicken salad out chicken you-know-what.  Zero accountability.

Florida’s defense didn’t help the cause much, either  After the Gators took the opening kickoff and stunned the Aggies (and Gator fans) with a quick, efficient TD drive, they immediately allowed A&M to score a TD in just 2 plays – a bomb down to inside the 10-yard line followed by a simple QB draw through a gaping hole right up the middle.  Well done!  Then they imitated swiss cheese again on the Aggies’ next possession, getting pushed around and offering little resistance leading to a 14-7 deficit.  Even after the Gator offense rallied (one last time) to tie the score, the defense again looked lost and were easily gutted for a third TD drive and a 21-14 halftime deficit.  It would have been even more but A&M missed a short FG attempt.  The second half was somewhat better, as a combination of conservative playcalling by A&M (opponents never are too worried about the Gator offense in the second half) and some halftime defensive adjustments kept the score the same until early in the 4th quarter.  Then, the defense finally wore down under the weight of the stagnant offense and gave up 13 unanswered points and the game was over.  The safety play by the Gators was horrific – again.  It’s painfully obvious that Jordan Castell, Sharif Denson, and Bryce Thornton should not be SEC starters.  TIme to give the freshmen some snaps, so they can get some experience in the hope some of them stay at Florida next season to play for a new head coach.  The interior D-line started to show it’s youth, inexperience, and lack of depth, being gashed by inside runs and also applying little penetration into the backfield.  The Edge group has been a massive disappointment this season, again not getting consistent pressure on the QB nor disrupting plays.

There’s a LOT of noise about Napier’s job status – again, and more rumors than ever about his imminent demise.  It can’t come soon enough, but it’s already almost 2 years too late.  The damage is done.  The players and loyal fan base deserve MUCH better, starting with professionalism and accountability.  That includes the AD and UAA, but it’s unlikely to see any leadership from either.  The Gators better get off to a fast start Saturday, or the crowd could get ugly.  There should be a wonderful atmosphere at Homecoming next week……Yay!

No rest for the Gators, as it’s off to College Station to face another Top 10 opponent – the 4th in a row.  Texas A&M is riding high so far and has a huge win on its resume, defeating Notre Dame on the road 41-40.  The rest of their schedule has been pretty soft, but they have struggled to put away Auburn and Mississippi St. at home recently.  This fits with the Aggies’ usual up-and-down performance each season.

The Florida defense can essentially use the same game plan from the Texas game.  Texas A&M is led by QB Marcel Reed, who is a more effective runner than passer and is completing under 60% of his throws.  Get him off of his first read, and he’ll usually try to scramble either to run or, hopefully, complete a pass against broken coverage.  It’s incumbent upon the Gator edge rushers to play disciplined football – setting the edge and forcing Reed to remain in the pocket.  The Aggies do have 2 solid RBs in Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens, and head coach Mike Elko would much prefer to lean on them to control the action.  However, their O-line has struggled at times with run-blocking, and the Florida front seven must replicate its performance from last week.  It’s another huge challenge for the front seven, and they have to perform well.  Their most dangerous offensive player is WR Mario Craver, who is electric with the ball in his hands and is an all-SEC candidate right now.  If the Gator secondary continues to struggle tackling in space, this will be a matchup that A&M will seek to exploit all game.  WR Kevin Concepion is a multi-purpose threat as a terrific runner after the catch and also a dangerous kick returner.  If Florida’s defense does not tackle especially well, it will be a long night.

The big question from Gator Nation will be: What offensive game plan will show up?  Will Billy Napier actually continue to be aggressive and allow his playmakers opportunities, or will he go back into his conservative shell, hoping to stay close and try and steal a late win?  Either way, it should start with Jaden Baugh.  He needs another 25+ touches to keep the Aggie defense honest and also to protect DJ Lagway.  Lagway won’t be close to 100% health the rest of 2025 and no longer is a running or scrambling threat.  This puts a lot of pressure on the Florida O-line to hold up against an attacking defense by establishing an effective running game and also protecting Lagway long enough to go through his progressions.  Not to mention the road game noise factor.  This challenge will be made more difficult by DE Cashius Howell, who leads the SEC with 7 sacks and has been a problem for every opponent.  Even more reason to run the ball well to force him to play the run and not simply tee off on the QB.  LB Taurean York and S Marcus Ratcliffe are the leading tacklers and must be accounted for.  Stronger opponents have had some success running the ball, and the Gators had better have plenty if they hope to win.  Of course, having two electric freshmen WRs in Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III helps, and Napier needs to feed both of them.  We saw against Texas how they helped open up the entire field for the offense – including the running game.  Both can score on any touch.

If Florida keeps the game close into the 4th quarter, A&M has shown a propensity to tighten up and make mistakes.  Perhaps Florida’s special teams can be the difference, whether it’s a kick return by Brown or a clutch FG from distance by Trey Smack.

It will be an electric atmosphere, with close to 110,000 at Kyle Field (including me) for a night game.  As usual in the SEC, road games are especially tough, and falling behind early is usually a path to defeat.  The Gator defense has been rock-solid so far, and if that continues, Florida can pull off the upset.  However, I’m afraid Reed’s scrambling and running will create some big plays, and Napier’s road record in the SEC is abysmal.  Until I see proof, I’m not predicting that changes, especially in such a difficult environment.

Prediction:

Texas A&M 27

Florida 17

Well, how about that?!  Once again, it took being on the brink of being fired for Billy Napier to finally do what Gator Nation has been begging and pleading for most of 43 games.

Florida came out fast and aggressive on offense.  The O-line fired off the ball and allowed Jaden Baugh and Duke Clark to combine for 159 yards rushing.  Clark showed some burst inside and filled in admirably for the injured Ja’Kobi Jackson.  Baugh had 27 touches and kept the Longhorn defense honest – that formula needs to be followed every game.  DJ Lagway was allowed to throw to all 3 levels, including some deep shots and back shoulder throws – things that we see from every other school in the country every week.  It’s plainly obvious at this point that the best two Gator WRs are both true freshmen – Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson.  Wilson introduced himself to the nation with some dazzling receptions and runs after the catch.  He made a great catch on a fade route, high-pointing the ball and keeping both feet in bounds.  He followed that 2 plays later with an excellent slant route in the red zone and snatching a high throw for a TD and a 17-7 lead.  Then he made the play of the game – beating single coverage to collect a deep pass, then breaking the tackles of two DBs to fight into the end zone to complete a 55-yard TD to stretch the lead to 29-14.  With his size and speed, he reminds me a lot of Jeremiah Smith at Ohio St.  All by himself he gave Lagway and the other receivers more room to operate, and is now an immediate threat to any defense.  The O-line still struggles in pass protection – especially whomever plays RT.  This is problematic with a hobbled Lagway, who could barely jog on and off the field and is no longer a running threat.  His entire right leg was wrapped, and he was essentially a statue in the pocket and can’t escape pressure.  Overall, it was the best performance since last year’s win over Ole Miss.

As good as the offense looked, the Gator defense did more than it’s part by dominating the LOS all afternoon.  Texas was never able to establish a running game, less scrambles by Arch Manning when the defense failed to keep a spy on him, and the Longhorns finished with only 52 yards rushing.  Florida recorded 6 sacks and harassed Manning the entire game while punishing him with hits as he threw.  Despite dealing with multiple injuries and some absences within the interior D-line, the rotation of Jamari Lyons, Brendan Bett, Michael Boireau, little-used Brien Taylor, and freshman Jeramiah McCloud held up well.  Boireau was especially effective, getting penetration up the middle most of the game and disrupting plays.  DC Ron Roberts did a nice job of mixing up blitz packages, including using CB Devon Moore, who picked up a sack in the 4th quarter to go along with an interception.  All was not perfect, however.  There were some issues with pass coverage in the secondary.  Cormani McClain was targeted all game and struggled badly, giving up many long completions and a TD.  The safeties were slow to react to some deep throws and busted some coverages, and were bailed out by overthrown passes.  Give credit to a solid group of Longhorn WRs, but this has to improve.

Florida’s special teams played well.  Trey Smack looked smooth, making 2 long-range FGs and forcing a touchback on every kickoff.  Kick coverage was solid, and Brown showed good judgement by not fielding 2 punts inside the 5-yard line – both bounced into the endzone for a touchback and better field position.  The one area that underperformed was punter Tommy Doman.  He shanked a few punts – again – and didn’t get the ball to turn over on others.  He has to improve for the continued tough stretch of upcoming games.

The Swamp was alive, and props to the crowd, who were loud and supportive despite the status of Napier.  It also helps when your offense is given a modern game plan and can keep the fans excited – what a novel concept!  Once Texas was forced into becoming one-dimensional with no running game, the noise affected their O-line, causing multiple false start penalties.  There were a LOT of Texas fans there, and they learned first-hand why The Swamp is perhaps the toughest place to play in the country when the Gators are playing well.

No time for the Gators to rest on their laurels.  It’s on to College Station to face another Top 10 opponent in Texas A&M.  There is still plenty to improve upon, but the biggest question is……will the offensive coaching and playcalling remain aggressive next week and for the rest of the season?  Napier has notoriously gone back into his shell after a single good performance, but his tenuous hold on his job may finally force him to stay the course.

Welcome back, Gator fans!  I know how excited you must be to get back into the season……LOL.  Florida is back at The Swamp to face the Texas Longhorns – their first-ever visit to Gainesville.  This begins the Texas two-step for the Gators, with a trip to College Station next week to face Texas A&M.  No respite in the SEC for anyone these days, and it’s just made worse when your season is already on the edge of disaster.

Texas came into 2025 off of a run to the Playoff semifinals in 2024, and looking to continue that momentum.  Anyone who follows college football had to endure the incessant bleating from the media about QB Arch Manning, the presumptive Heisman favorite.  Uh, yeah……right.  He was easily exposed in their opener at Ohio St., and has looked pedestrian at best since, even getting booed at home.  Even with one of the elite offensive minds in head coach Steve Sarkisian, they have yet to overcome the loss of 4 O-line starters to the NFL or graduation, and are still searching for continuity there.  There are still the usual set of elite skill position players in RBs Jerrick Gibson and CJ Baxter (both heavily recruited by Florida), along with WRs Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone (I presume).  Even Manning is a running threat with the second-most carries on the team.  Despite all that talent, the passing game has been mediocre at best to date, and all of those carries by Manning aren’t the best for his surviving the rest of the season uninjured.

Winning at the LOS is the one matchup that the Florida defense has to exploit.  The defense needed the bye week more than anything, after being asked to carry the team for the first 4 games and doing so admirably while watching the offense look horrific.  The D-line has held up surprisingly well despite only having Caleb Banks for 3 quarters of one game (preseason foot injury followed by a broken foot and surgery), and possibly being without Brendan Bett who is TBD with a knee injury suffered late in the Miami game.  Jamari Lyons has played like he was expected out of high school, and young guys like sophomore Michael Boireau and true freshmen Joseph Mbatchou and  Jeramiah McCloud have exceeded expectations.  The Edge production has been sorely lacking and a massive disappointment – true freshman Jayden Woods has been the most effective player there so far, and the upperclassmen have to do their share.  Tyreak Sapp, Kamran James, and George Gumbs all need to play better or find the bench.  I believe the D-line, along with the LBs, are the only way Florida can steal this game by playing their best game of the season.  LBs Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles have been excellent, but it’s time for Jaden Robinson, Pup Howard and others to play better – they have been a disappointment so far.  The cornerbacks have also held up well, and should be able to control the Longhorn WRs for the most part.  Devon Moore and Cormani McClain have played as advertised, but the loss of Dijon Johnson to a knee injury and Aaron Gates to shoulder surgery mean that young players like Teddy Foster and J’vari Flowers will have to step in and try and provide some depth.  The safety play once again has been the weak link of the defense, as Jordan Castell, Sharif Denson, and Bryce Thornton simply haven’t made any key plays, while struggling in coverage.  I wonder when elite freshmen like Lagonza Hayward, Drake Stubbs, and Ben Hanks III will get their chance?  Normally I’d say they already should have seen more action, but I wonder if the losing streak has the coaching staff too worried about trying to save this sinking ship more than developing the younger guys.  They’d better play them and try to get something from them before they consider entering the portal if the season continues to tank.

Now for the real fun – let’s talk about the powerful juggernaut that is the Billy Napier offense.  Let’s take a close look at where we’re at so far and what we’re working with.

Here’s the report card for the national rank of Rural Meyer’s playcalling wizardry:

(rank of 1 is best; there are 136 FBS teams)

Scoring Offense – 101

Total Offense – 110

Total Yards per Game – 118

Points per Play – 118

Yards per Play – 125

Rushing Offense – 104 (this from the alleged guy that emphasizes the running game)

Rush Plays per Game – 111

Rush Yards per Game – 109

Passing Offense – 86 (I’m shocked it’s this high, but a LOT of hyped QBs have really stunk this season)

Yards per Pass – 124 (5.4 yd./attempt – apparently Graham Mertz was the perfect QB for Napier)

Pass Yards per Game – 93

Sacks Allowed – 108 (from the alleged ‘best O-line since Napier’s been at Florida’)

Tackle for Loss Allowed – 129 (7.5 per game, including 11 against LIU)

3rd Down Conversions – 122

10+ yard plays – 93

20+ yard plays – 101

30+ yard plays – 131

40+ yard plays – 121

OK then……what can be done if the playcaller won’t recuse himself, remove the headsets, and allow the coaches with some actual acumen to take over?  It obviously starts with the QB position.  DJ Lagway has been a complete bust – partly due to injury, mostly due to inept coaching.  Allegedly he and his camp say he’s healthy, but no one believes that.  It may be that his NIL $$$$$$$ is tied directly to playing, which – if true – means that Napier has backed himself into a corner from which he can’t escape.  The dink-and-dunk passing offense just won’t sustain enough drives nor score enough points – there has to be a way to actually scheme an attack that looks closer to 2025 than 1955.  It’s criminal watching the speed and talent at the WR position go to waste (again) while the TEs get the most snaps and targets.  This HAS to change NOW – get VB3, Aidan Mizell, and J Michael Sturdivant into open spaces with a real route tree.  Allegedly Dallas Wilson has practiced this week and could play – Florida had better get something from him before he gets frustrated and either shuts it down or portals out.  He’s good enough to actually threaten any defense, and can make the lives of the QB and other WRs much easier.  The O-line has played poorly and embarrassed itself so far.  It’s time to take out some aggression and anger by leading the way for RBs Jaden Baugh (severely underutilized to date) and Ja’kobi Jackson.  Why Napier – even in close games – has called more than 65% pass plays is beyond anyone’s comprehension.  Seeing Lagway playing so badly should by default have forced him to lean on the running game.  This has to improve.  The problem is that Texas has one of the elite defenses in college football, again.  They have crushed it in recruiting the past 5 years, and have shrugged off any losses to the NFL or injury and roll on.  They have some real impact players in DE Collin Simmons who is a terror rushing the passer; LBs Liona Lafau, Ty’Anthony Smith, and Anthony Hill are one of the best groups in the country; and DBs Jelani McDonald and Michael Taafe are ballhawks.  Even if Napier somehow makes enough changes to try and unlock the offense, it simply may not be enough to overcome this level of defensive talent and excellent coaching.  It looks like Florida will have to try and shorten the game by running the ball more, reduce the number of offensive possessions for Texas, and hope to keep it close into the 4th quarter and have the Swamp crowd help bring home a huge upset win.  It’s ugly, but that’s where Napier has put this program at – nothing like the winning style from 1980-2009 or even the pockets of good years after until he took over in 2022.

What will happen?  The bye week, while allowing the players to get some much-needed rest, was a firestorm of withering criticism and condemnation of Napier – all of it deserved.  He’s a dead man walking and everyone knows it.  The players are trying to soldier on, but they aren’t dumb.  The offensive players see how they are being misused and wasted, and the defensive players are getting tired of the same crap they’ve had to endure trying to bail out the offense time and again.  Will Napier ever show self-awareness and take accountability?  He’s likely gone anyway, but it would be a pleasant surprise if he showed some professionalism and allowed his players and assistant coaches the chance to maybe win a few big games and salvage some pride……because that’s about all that’s left.  I think the Gators show some real fire and keep it close into the second half, but once again fade late to another loss.  Would an upset win shock me?  No, but that has more to do with the Longhorns’ struggles on offense than expecting the Gators to simply outplay them.  I’m expecting to see a LOT of Texas fans at The Swamp – too many.

Prediction:

Texas 27

Florida 13