Mr. Napier’s Wild Ride came to an end for 2024 with a 31-11 win at Florida State.  It certainly wasn’t pretty, and it was obvious that Florida had a mental letdown after the previous 2 games, but any win over the Criminoles is a good one. It was a cold night in Taliban City, but an even colder one for Criminole fans, as they contemplate their poor incoming recruiting class and the fact they are stuck with Mike NorveLLLLLLLLLL and his remaining $80M+ contract with a current buyout well above $50M.  LMAO

I have been to 43 consecutive regular-season games in this rivalry, and can say that this FSU team was HORRIFIC.  I mean, so bad that even though the Gator offense was struggling with a lack of focus and through some questionable playcalling, I was never worried about getting the win.  This is easily the worst team they have fielded since 1973 and 1974, when they won a total 1 game over those 2 seasons and almost disbanded the program.  The famous quote from “Conan the Barbarian” pleasantly came to mind……”What is best in life?  To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women.” 

The Florida defense feasted on true freshman QB Luke Kromenhouk and a turnstile-like O-line all night.  They racked up 8 sacks, forced 8 fumbles – recovering 5 – and only allowed 1 sustained drive the entire game until garbage time in the 4th quarter.  The timing of 2 of those turnovers was devastating to the Criminoles.  A strip-sack by DE Jack Pyburn led to Florida’s first score on a short field, and a botched pitch at the Gator 3-yard line on the aforementioned sustained drive took away what little momentum they had and gutted them mentally.  Tyreke Sapp terrorized Kromenhouk and lived in the backfield the entire game.  DTs Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks both were injured early but returned to plug the middle.  The secondary really wasn’t challenged, and FSU only completed a few throws more than 10 yards beyond the LOS.  At one time in the 3rd quarter, Florida was playing 5 true freshmen on defense, and even then they held up for the most part.  This was essentially a controlled scrimmage for the defense – that’s how ineffective and impotent FSU’s offense was.

The Gator offense played a ‘C’ game at best.  There were some poor routes run by the WRs – one leading to an interception that ended a potential TD drive.  The O-line struggled at right guard with the absence of Damien George, and DJ Lagway was not as sharp as usual.  He will need to work on setting his feet more often and also his arm angle when making shorter throws – it cost him an easy TD throw to Elijhah Badger early in the 3rd quarter and also led to some series-ending incompletions to open receivers.  Fortunately the running game was working like it has most of the season.  Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson alternated most of the first half and were effective, and Montrell Johnson effectively ended the competitive phase of the game early in the 4th quarter with his 65-yard burst for a TD and a 24-3 lead.  It was fitting that he was untouched on the run, perfectly epitomizing F$U’s lost season.  Florida easily could have scored 2-3 more touchdowns if it played with the intensity and focus of the previous 2 weeks, but did enough to stay comfortably ahead and close out the season on a 3-game winning streak.

Florida finishes 2024 at 7-5, with 3 straight important victories.  This has led to a surge in recruiting, bringing the class ranking up from a shockingly-low 51 at the start of November to hovering around the Top 10.  The Gators were able to flip a handful of 4* players (including 2 from FSU) and finally close on some others, which just shows that a lot of kids were waiting to see if Napier would ever put a winning product on the field.  This finish is a complete 180 from the end of 2023, where Florida had 6 quality recruits decommit the last month of the season during a disastrous 5-game losing streak.  The next step is to carry the current momentum into the first portal cycle that runs from December 9-28.  Here’s hoping the alleged new commitment to increased funding for NIL yields dividends, as there are still some critical roster spots to fill at OT, DT, WR, EDGE, and S.  It’s nice to see the high school recruiting improve, but none of those kids can immediately fill those roster needs in a starting role.

The Gators now await their bowl game destination and opponent.  After the Playoff games, bowl games are even more dreck than ever, with many players either opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft or going into the portal and looking for a new school/opportunity.  In most cases these games will be scrimmages between teams that are very different than in the regular season.  The main benefit is the extra practices for the young and/or inexperienced players in preparation for spring practice, summer workouts, and fall practice.  The start of the 2025 regular season essentially begins now – at least this offseason will be filled with some legitimate hope and enthusiasm for the future.

Go Gators!

Florida and Billy Napier pulled a rabbit out of the hat Saturday, finding a way to pull off it’s second straight upset of a ranked opponent at The Swamp.  This time it was Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin being victimized by a 24-17 loss that will haunt them for a lifetime.  Despite a noon kickoff, the game was a sellout, and once again the home crowd was a large factor in the victory.  The positive vibes from the LSU win carried over, and the Gators were able to desperately hold on during a tense 4th quarter.

The Rebels rolled up well over 400 yards of offense, won the time of possession battle, and moved at will between the 20s.  That’s when things got really weird.  Despite QB Jaxson Dart being an accomplished passing and running threat that the Gator defense had to account for, time and again Kiffin rolled out his jumbo package in short yardage situations, with DT JJ Pegues taking the snap as QB.  He came into this game converting all 12 of his rushing attempts for either a first down or a touchdown, but the defense rose up and stopped him 3 out of the 5 times he ran the ball – twice in the red zone.  It seems Kiffin outsmarted himself in this circumstance, and it was one of the 2 main reasons they lost.  The other was multiple dropped passes or potential TD throws that simply went through the hands of their WRs, which hadn’t been an issue all season.  It had to be incredibly frustrating for the Rebels as the game wore on, and it seemed to take a mental toll on them late, as they – and Dart especially – pressed too hard in the last 6 minutes and coughed up 2 egregious interceptions.  I will say that Florida – to it’s credit – played hard and fast on defense, and that created some of the good fortune.  Caleb Banks and the D-line had another solid game with multiple tackles for loss and getting 3 sacks.  The secondary lost perhaps it’s best remaining player in Aaron Gates in the 1st quarter due to a knee injury, but Bryce Thornton filled in at less than 100% himself and had the game of his life, recording 14 tackles and getting the 2 interceptions late in the 4th quarter that sealed the win.  Once again it was basically 4 DBs playing almost every snap, with little relief or rest and under constant pressure.  While they were beaten more often than not, the combination of the rush along with pure hustle was just enough to make this game of inches go Florida’s way.

The Gator offense was able to do just enough to stay close early and then take the lead for good in the 4th quarter.  The running game did better than many expected, rolling up 164 net yards and providing Lagway enough balance to complete 10 passes for 180 yards.  Montrell Johnson carried the ball for 107 yards on Senior Day, which must have felt especially good after struggling through multiple injuries this season.  The Ole Miss D-line is legit and one of the elite groups in the country.  DT Walter Nolan specifically was a PROBLEM – he dominated against both the run and rushing the QB, and is gonna be a rich man soon in the NFL.  The Florida O-line was up against it all afternoon and had it’s struggles, but was able to establish the running game and give Lagway just enough opportunities to make plays.  One of the best results from the game was seeing former Gator Princely Umanmielen have no impact whatsoever, recording just 2 tackles, and then acting the fool after the game outside the stadium as Gator fans gave him everything he deserved.  Enjoy the bitterness of a wasted season. 

It’s now on to Taliban City and the final regular season game against Florida State.  In what can only be described as an utter and complete collapse that began with their humiliating 63-3 loss to Georgia in last season’s Orange Bowl, the Seminoles come into this game as one of the worst teams in the FBS.  Quite the turnaround for supposed coaching savant Mike NorveLLLLLLLLL and his portal wizardry.  Their only 2 wins have come at home – a 5-point victory against a 5-6 California team that missed 2 short FGs, and last week against FCS school Charleston Southern……a classic battle of two 1-9 teams.  That new $84M contract F$U signed NorveLLLLLLLLL to before the season started makes Napier and his $26M buyout look like a bargain, and they are stuck with him for at least 1-2 more seasons due to an even more massive buyout.

F$U’s offense has been truly offensive in 2024.  They are currently ranked 131st out of 134 FBS teams in scoring average at a paltry 15.8 points/game.  Their supposed big-time QB signing from the portal, DL Ulagalelei, was a complete bust, and his midseason injury has forced them into burning the redshirt year of true freshman Luke Kromenhoek.  While having some raw talent, he’s been overwhelmed in his few games as the starter, and right now is more of a running threat than a passing one.  As bad as it’s been this season, they do have a few legit skill position players in RB Lawrence Toafili and WRs Ja’khi Douglas and Malik Benson.  What’s undercut any hope of success is a horrific O-line that started the season with mediocre talent and frightfully thin quality depth.  It only took a few injuries and a key portal defection (former Gator Richie Leonard – LMAO) to gut the unit and make it nearly impossible to sustain any consistent offense for even one complete game.  Other than Samford, this is the largest mismatch the Gator defense has entered into a game with.  After 2 rousing (and draining) wins and 4 straight games against Top 12 SEC opponents, I’m not sure how much is left in the tank physically and emotionally.  I am encouraged by the consistent effort and results (excluding the debacle at Texas – having to play QB3 along with almost the entire starting secondary missing).  Many young players have taken advantage of being forced into starting or key rotation roles, and the hope is that they can hold up for just one more game.  Florida’s front seven should be able to win it’s share of battles at the LOS, and the secondary should be able to handle the Seminole WRs after holding up pretty well against the elite WR corps of LSU and Ole Miss the past 2 weeks.  DC Ron Roberts needs to continue the recent trend of getting after the QB with line stunts and blitzes.  As soon as Kromenhoek has to come off of his first read, he will likely panic and take off running, so that’s where disciplined rush lanes and DE play need to be on display to prevent that from extending drives.

I expect more of the same from the Gator offense that we’ve seen the last 2 games.  Establish a consistent running game, and take shots deep to Badger or Dike when available.  Lagway will still be playing at less than 100%, but he’s shown that he can still be effective and get the job done even without being able to run as much as usual.  I am still waiting for him to utilize the TE and RBs more in the passing game to make it easier extending drives.  The RB rotation right now is one of the best in the SEC, and should be able to feast as the game wears on.  LIke with the defense, I want to see a game plan that is aggressive and fast-paced.  Apply pressure to the Seminole defense from the outset, and keep applying it for 4 quarters.  FSU’s defense has performed well at times throughout their season, but have to be worn down and demoralized after time and again trudging back on to the field after another short-lived offensive possession.  DL Patrick Payton has been solid all season, racking up 4 sacks and being a disruptive force.  DBs Shyheim Brown, Azareye’h Thomas, and KJ Kirkland are all good players, but are also the 1st, 3rd, and 5th leading tacklers on the season.  That’s a terrible sign for any defense – and underlines how badly most of their front seven has played all season.  Florida’s O-line needs to continue it’s improved play and lean on the defense all night.  As with any game where Napier is involved in the playcalling, it will look slow and ugly at times, but Florida has enough on offense to eventually pull away on the scoreboard.

One thing that Florida St. has had this year is an excellent pair of kicking specialists.  PK Ryan Fitzgerald has made all of his 14 XPs and 12 FG.  Punter Alex Mastromanno is one of three finalists for the Ray Guy Award, which makes sense, as he’s had plenty of reps this season.  Samuel Singleton has been a dangerous kickoff returner, averaging 26 yards per return, including a touchdown.  Fortunately, Florida’s special teams have been solid overall for the first time in Napier’s tenure.  PK Trey Smack and P Jeremy Crawshaw compare favorably to FSU’s specialists.  Smack has improved throughout the past month and has range well beyond 50 yards.  Crawshaw came close to being a Ray Guy Award finalist himself, and should have made the cut.  He has continually pinned opponents inside the 20 when needed, and also can boom a punt long if required.

So, what will happen on a cold Saturday night?  Yes, this is a rivalry game, but this is a historically (and hysterically) bad F$U team, and winning this year is close to non-negotiable for Napier.  I don’t want to see a regression back to “complimentary football” and a slow pace on either offense or defense.  Come out right from the start playing hard and fast, get after the Seminoles early, build a lead, then really put the hurt on them in the second half.  He’s earned a 4th year with the turnaround and improvement shown the past 6 weeks, but a lot of that positive capital would be lost in a huge upset loss.  The high school recruiting class has been given a shot in the arm the past 10 days with some solid commitments, including flips from 2 former Seminole recruits.  Allegedly there is a renewed focus on increased funding for NIL.  Florida has lagged behind on this since it’s inception in 2022, and it is sorely needed to fill some current and future critical holes on the roster.  This is an opportunity to continue the recent upswing in performance, show continued improvement, and carry some real momentum into the offseason, spring and fall practice, and into the start of the 2025 season.  I know the Gators are coming off of an incredibly tough stretch of games and back-to-back emotional wins, but the coaching staff and leaders on the team need to keep the team focused and go deep into the well once last time.  Don’t screw it up.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 4

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 4 or 3 (win or loss)

Prediction:

Florida 34

Florida St. 16

Florida stood toe-to-toe with LSU for 60 minutes, and pulled off a hard fought 27-16 upset victory at The Swamp.  It is likely the biggest win of Billy Napier’s career, especially given the circumstances surrounding his job status.  Gator Nation once again showed up and showed out at the Swamp, creating an electric atmosphere that kept the players energized throughout.

DJ Lagway showed some real toughness and leadership, playing at maybe 75% on an injured left hamstring.  He completed only 13 of 26 passes, but many went for big yards and came at critical times in the game.  Elijhah Badger again was the main recipient, including a TD in the 2nd quarter for a 10-3 lead, and then another huge catch near the goal line in the 4th quarter to set up what turned out to be the winning score.  That second reception came on an elite throw from Lagway, who stepped up into the pocket to avoid the rush and delivered a strike off of one foot.  The offense only ran 45 plays as the defense struggled mightily all afternoon to get off the field, so the big plays were a necessity.  After LSU cut the lead to 20-16 with less than 6 minutes to go, Lagway had a huge first down completion to TE Hayden Hansen, and then came the clinching play – a simulated bootleg action to the right followed by a pivot left and pitch to Jaden Baugh, who ran 55 yards to the house and essentially ended the game.  The Gators had a surprisingly tough time running the football against a Tiger defense that had been gashed for much of the season, but Baugh’s run and Lagway’s timely completions were enough to get the win.  The injury of course hindered his mobility and didn’t help the running game, but he showed some courage and pocket awareness time and again by standing strong in the pocket while the LSU edge rushers were making life hard on Gator OTs Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and Austin Barber.  Barber had an especially rough outing, with 2 critical holding calls that offset 1st downs and struggling with the speed of the edge rushers.  Those two will have to play much better next week.

THIRRRRRRRRRD DOWWWWWWWWWN!!!  It’s bad enough hearing that from the PA announcer, but it’s especially bad watching the Gator defense struggle to get off the field all game.  LSU ran 93 plays – more than double that of Florida, and had the ball a ridiculous 42 minutes of game time.  Somehow, some way, the defense was able to bend but not break, even more surprising given that four defenders – all in the secondary – played every snap.  Talk about tightening the rotation!  All four guys played well, but special props go to Trikweze Bridges, who moved from safety to cornerback just 2 weeks ago and held his own against some excellent Tiger WRs.  But perhaps the biggest surprise of the game was Florida getting 7 sacks of Garrett Nussmeier.  LSU had surrendered only 6 sacks all season coming into this game, so the Gator front seven rose up to play it’s best game of 2024 to date.  DT Caleb Banks and DE Tyreak Sapp terrorized Nussmeier the entire game.  Shemar James played his best game of his Gator career, leading the team with 11 tackles which included 2 sacks and 2 TFL, and also had 2 pass breakups and good coverage.  Certainly a team effort with big plays coming from many defenders.  It was apparent that the defensive coaching staff decided to play it safe against LSU”s passing game, forcing the Tigers to be patient by preventing big plays, while hopefully stiffening in the red zone.  The strategy worked – barely – due to a superhuman effort from the players and a Swamp crowd that was into the game from the start.

Florida’s special teams were excellent as well.  Trey Smack made all 3 of his FG attempts, including a career-best 55 yard conversion to tie the game 10-10 just before halftime.  Jeremy Crawshaw pinned LSU inside the 20 repeatedly with good placement and hang time on his punts.  And no kicking plays had 12 men on the field or an illegal formation – a bonus!

It’s on to the final game of this historically tough stretch of games, with Ole Miss coming to The Swamp for a rare visit and currently in the 12-team Playoff field.  This is the best Rebel team since the one that visited Gainesville back in 2015, and Lane KIffin has gone all-in on 2024 through portal acquisitions in the offseason and a senior-laden roster.

The Rebels are led on offense by QB Jaxson Dart.  He leads the SEC in completion %, total yards, TDs, yards per attempt, and QB rating.  Kiffin has done an excellent job developing him over the past 2 seasons, as he previously was more of a running threat than accurate passer.  Dart is still the second-leading rusher behind Miami transfer Harry Parrish, a quick, slashing RB.  Ole Miss is loaded with quality WRs, led by Tre Harris, Cayden Lee, Jordan Watkins, and Antwane Wells.  Harris leads the SEC with 987 receiving yards.  All average 17 yards or more per completion, which shows they attempt many downfield throws.  This matchup with the Florida secondary could be more problematic than even LSU’s passing attack, and I’m not sure the Gators have the depth to handle all of these targets.  It very likely could be a similar game plan – force Dart to exercise patience, don’t allow any deep completions, and hope to hold the Rebels to FG attempts in the red zone.  A big problem could be Dart’s running ability – even though he’s been hampered by a bad ankle the past few weeks, he’s still a willing and tough runner, unlike Nussmeier was last week.  Even more of a problem is that Kiffin is an elite play caller and designer of schemes.  Many of his concepts are similar to Steve Sarkisian’s at Texas, and we saw how badly that turned out for the Gators.  I don’t see Florida holding Ole Miss under 28 points unless it can generate some turnovers or get pressure on Dart similar to what it accomplished against LSU.  Which leads me to……

……the Gator offense.  Lagway needs to be healthier and sharper this week, because I believe Florida is going to need at least 30 points, while facing the best D-line in the SEC.  The Rebel front four has terrorized QBs all season, leading the conference in sacks and QB pressures.  Familiar face Princely Umanmielin returns to The Swamp after transferring from Florida in the offseason and leaving with some withering criticisms of his coaches.  Fellow DL JJ Pegues, Walter Nolen, and Jared Ivey are all NFL prospects, as is leading sacker LB Suntarine Perkins.  Florida’s O-line will face it’s stiffest challenge of the season this week, and have to improve markedly from the previous game.  OTs Barber and Crenshaw-Dickson struggled with LSU’s edge rushers, and it took some elite playmaking form Lagway to offset that.  With Lagway still hobbled by his hamstring injury, I’m not confident that he can escape the rush again this week without a better running game to keep Ole Miss from simply teeing off at the QB every down.  Look for TE Hayden Hansen to play a huge role in helping out the OTs in pass protection.  I’m hopeful that the RBs can be utilized more in the passing game to give Lagway some quick throws and relief from the pass rush.  WRs Badger and Chimere Dike will have to make big plays if given the opportunity, and the potential is there, as the Rebel secondary has been exposed by teams that have given their QB time to throw.  This is a very tough matchup for the Gators, and I’m not sure they can hold up for 4 quarters – especially if having to play from behind.  The offense also has to run far more than 45 plays this week – I don’t see the defense holding up again if forced to play too many snaps/minutes.

The LSU win provided Napier with some respite from the pressure on his job security, and has even loosened the death grip that had it’s hold on the recruiting class.  While I’m doubtful Florida wins on Saturday, another solid performance from the players along with a credible game plan from the coaches should continue the change in momentum.  Another upset is always possible at The Swamp, but right now Ole Miss looks like a nearly complete team that also is mentally ready, unlike LSU was.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 4

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 4 or 3 (win or loss – especially if it’s ugly)

Prediction:

Mississippi 34

Florida 20

Florida traveled to Austin to play Texas for the first time since 1940, and it looked like the 1940 Gators showed up.  The Longhorns embarrassed them 49-17 in what could only be kindly described as a controlled scrimmage.  This game was never competitive from start to finish.  I expected a big loss, but let’s be real – trailing 35-0 at the half, and watching Texas empty the bench for the last 25 minutes after going up 42-0, is unacceptable.  Sure, not having DJ Lagway available at QB and missing the top 2 cornerbacks were going to be major issues, but this was still a terrible performance.

The Florida offense was handicapped with Aidan Warner at QB, but Napier’s playcalling once again was mystifying.  Too many pass plays that Warner can’t execute, not enough running plays despite the OL and RBs churning out almost 200 yards against a good Texas front seven, and a continued lack of feel for sequencing play calls – especially in the red zone.  RBs Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson ran hard and read holes well – Montrell Johnson is simply not missed.  Damien George continued his renaissance after moving the RG, and Austin Barber looks much better at LT now that he is healthy.  But all of that was never going to even remotely overcome the bad QB play.  Once again, Clay Millen didn’t even sniff the field, which is beyond perplexing.  WR Aiden Mizell looked good taking over from Tre Wilson in getting his cardio work by running 20+ sprints across the formation pre-snap and never getting the ball.  Chimere Dike made a few good receptions downfield, while Elijhah Badger played through injury and wasn’t close to his usual self.  What Napier has done to the WR corps since he arrived in Gainesville is criminal.  And still no incorporation of the TEs into the passing game after Graham Mertz’ season ended……even when it would help a limited QB.

The Gator defense never stood a chance.  Texas QB Quinn Ewers looked good throwing against air, racking up 337 yards and 5 TDs in one half plus an additional one series after halftime.  Longhorn head coach Steve Sarkisian is an elite playcaller, and he eviscerated Florida as Texas moved the ball at will, oftentimes having WRs open by 5-10 yards.  It resembled an offseason 7-on-7 drill with the lack of close coverage.  That shows (again) how poorly the Gator LBs and safeties are coached in regards to pass coverage……now going on 5 years.  Ron Roberts and Austin Armstrong were completely outclassed and exposed.  It just shouldn’t be that difficult to even play some sort of zone that keeps the ball in front of you and at least forces the offense to methodically move the ball.  There were a handful of individual good plays from DE LJ McCray, DT Caleb Banks, and LBs Shemar James and Pup Howard, but far too few.  It had to be disheartening for the defenders, watching Texas move the ball at will while they desperately chased them from behind. 

The best thing from this scrimmage was that fans could leave at halftime and walk to Franklin’s BBQ well before they closed.  Gator Nation showed up in big numbers to support the team……and got another slap in the face before they traveled back to their rural Central Florida basements and across the country.  Even long-time, die-hard season ticket holders I know left at halftime after another punch to the gut.  Good times.  

Florida now returns home to face LSU.  The Tigers are coming in after getting their teeth kicked in at home by Alabama 42-6, and looking just as bad as the score would indicate.  They are learning first-hand why Brian Kelly isn’t the best coach out there, and also are wondering why their defense continues to struggle (sound familiar?).  The Gators also have received some very good and very bad injury news this week, as I’ll detail below.

LSU’s offense still is one of the best in the SEC, led by QB Garrett Nussmeier and a plethora of quality WRs including Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, along with an excellent TE in Mason Taylor.  This is a terrible matchup for Florida right now, because of all the injuries decimating the depth chart in the secondary.  CBs Devon Moore and Ja”keenm Jackson will miss the game, while it appears Dijon Johnson will give it a go despite not being 100%.  It’s probably gonna be another ugly afternoon for the secondary unless the front seven suddenly discovers a pass rush.  RB Caden Durham hasn’t played like a true freshman, displaying speed and big-play ability, and providing an excellent counterbalance to that powerful passing game.  Nussmeier will have extra personal motivation for this game, as his father was OC at Florida under The Swamp Donkey, er, Jim McElwain, and was unceremoniously fired for poor performance.  If the Gators can somehow get some pressure on him he will turn the ball over, as he already has 11 interceptions on the season, most coming the past 2 weeks against Texas A&M and Bama.  But a quality pass rush has been missing from the defense for years now, I don’t see it suddenly appearing.  More bad news for the defense is that LB Pup Howard is out for this game, depleting an already thin LB corps.  This forces freshmen Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles into action, where their lack of experience – especially in pass coverage – will get exposed.

On offense, there is some huge news – DJ Lagway is allegedly cleared to play.  Even with that positive development, Florida has to run the ball effectively – and often – to have any real chance.  Baugh and Jackson may need continued snaps in the wildcat formation as well – Alabama gashed the Tigers all night with QB and wildcat power runs, and that’s something that this Gator offense can conceivably execute.  It’s not pretty, and nothing like most offenses have been played in the past 30+ years, but it’s necessary to try and win this particular game.  Just having Lagway in the game gives immediate legitimacy to the passing game, as does the additional news that Badger will likely play some snaps, giving the QBs another quality target that can keep the LSU defense honest.  There’s some hope, given the recent improvement of the O-line and it’s good run blocking against Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas.  The Gators have to control the ball, win time of possession, and shorten the game.  Doing all of those things will help keep Lagway healthy while allowing the defense to get some rest as they will be under a passing onslaught from the opening kickoff.  They say styles make fights, and, sadly, this matchup doesn’t make for a good fight for Florida……unless the offense carries it’s share of the load.  I doubt any of the guys returning from injury are fully healthy, but they’re going to try to tough it out.

With all of the on-field challenges to deal with, there’s the continued drama that is Napier’s job security.  That vote of confidence from Scott Stinklin isn’t worth the paper it was written on nor the electronic bandwidth needed to email out to Florida fans and alumni.  It’s just another desperate attempt to kick the can down the road, and there’s an increasing chance of wasting another year, recruiting class, and season, while alienating Gator Nation even more.  The only respite would be winning either of the next 2 games, and LSU is likely the easier opponent compared to Ole Miss.  It will be interesting to see how motivated LSU looks throughout the game – will they be showing emotion and fighting every snap, or have the crushing losses the past 2 weeks demoralized them?  I’m hoping for the latter, but not counting on it.

Pre-game sitrep: 3 (no longer N/A, even with the dreaded vote of confidence)

Post-game sitrep: 2 or 3 (loss or win)

Prediction:

LSU 34

Florida 24 (if Lagway plays the entire game); Florida 14 (or less, if Lagway re-injures himself)

Florida played perhaps it’s best game of Billy Napier’s tenure, taking a huge upset chance deep into the 4th quarter before eventually faltering late in a 34-20 loss to Georgia.  The team played hard and with emotion for 60 minutes, but at the end couldn’t overcome some crippling injuries and another critical special teams gaffe.

The Gator offense ran the ball surprisingly well against a constant 7- and 8-man front.  The O-line had by far it’s best game of the season, getting some push and opening holes for RBs Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson, while giving the QBs some time to come off their primary reads when passing.  DJ Lagway did what he does, making some plays with his legs to extend some drives, and hitting the Bulldog defense with a deep shot to Aiden Mizell for a 7-3 lead and some momentum.  That play loosened up the defense until……the worst-case scenario unfolded.  Lagway slipped on the turf scrambling, and somehow injured his hamstring badly enough to be carted off the field and effectively ending any big-play capability or consistency for the offense.  In came 3rd-stringer Aidan Warner, a transfer from Yale.  To his credit, Warner played hard and showed some composure in being thrown into such a tough circumstance.  He did just enough to lead the Gators to a FG and a 13-6 lead with a short field after a Georgia turnover, then converted a clutch 4th down in the 4th quarter with a completion to Chimere Dike, leading to the tying score after the defense forced another turnover.  But his physical limitations became painfully obvious as the second half progressed, missing some completions due to a weak arm and questionable accuracy.  Finally, the dagger came when, after Georgia took a 27-20 lead with 4 minutes to go, he threw a terrible interception deep inside Florida’s own territory, which the Bulldogs converted into a TD 2 plays later to ice the game.  It’s a shame the offense squandered some great field position given to it by the defense numerous times.  Even when Lagway was in the game, Napier refused to continue aggressively throw the ball deep.

Florida’s defense had it’s best showing in years, repeatedly holding up while the offense struggled with a 3rd-string QB, and also forcing 3 interceptions by Carson Beck and getting some pressure and a few sacks as well.  They gave the Gator offense enough chances to convert short fields into points – just not enough given the circumstances.  Even after the Lagway injury they didn’t suffer a letdown, standing up to a very good UGA O-line and not allowing the Bulldogs to control the line of scrimmage and time of possession with their running game.  The front seven held it’s ground and tackled well, and the secondary played tight coverage for most of the game and exhibited playmaking on the ball not seen since perhaps 2019.  However, the injury bug bit the secondary especially hard.  CB Jason Marshall was already out for the season coming into the game, but subsequently Florida lost CBs Devon Moore and Dijon Johnson as the game progressed.  This threw Cormani McClain into the fire, and things got so bad in regards to the depth chart that safety Trikweze Bridges became an emergency CB.  All of this finally caught up to the Gators in the 4th quarter, as Beck was able to convert a massive 3rd down after the Gators had tied the game in the 4th quarter, then hit a few more key throws that led to the go-ahead score.  A terrific effort overall.

Special teams were excellent, except for the aforementioned mistake.  Jeremy Crawshaw’s punting was great, continually hitting bombs that flipped the field.  Trey Smack converted 2 FGs and put his kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks.  But a bad snap on a late 3rd quarter FG attempt lost close to 20 yards, and set up Georgia with a short field to take a 20-13 lead – a real gut punch to an already injured team.  Of note on that play was the fact that the snapper was the backup to Rocco Underwood, who didn’t play due to injury, and highlighted how important the kick conversion specialists are.

What could have been for the Gators and Napier was effectively taken away by injuries and 2 killer mistakes.  But that’s life in the SEC, especially when your team just doesn’t have the amount of talent, depth, and experience of the elite teams.  That leaves precious little room for error, which was made painfully obvious.

Now, Florida has to find a way to collect itself and refocus on the next massive challenge – a trip to Austin to play Texas.  The Longhorns are coming off of a bye and will be refreshed and ready to start their Playoff push.  This year’s Texas is definitely not as good as the team that made the 4-team Playoff last season.  They have already been whacked at home by Georgia, and have struggled in some road games.  Still, their recent recruiting classes plus the elite playcalling of head coach Steve Sarkisian have them in position to vie for a Playoff spot.

The Longhorn offense is led by QB Quinn Ewers, who is completing 69% of his passes this season.  WRs Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Ryan Wingo are all speedy and capable of big plays, and TE Gunnar Helm is a consistent and dependable target.  The Texas running game is not as dynamic as last season, but provides just enough balance with RBs Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue.  One thing to watch for is how effective the RBs are in the passing game, something Sarkisian is masterful at.  I don’t know how much gas is left in the tank after last week for the Florida defensive front seven, but the Longhorn O-line has had it’s struggles at times this year, and Ewers will turn the ball over when under pressure.  DC Ron Roberts will need to continue the recent trend of blitzing more often to try and disrupt the timing of the Texas offense, which is so important to their success.  I’m not sure who will be available in the secondary for Florida, but no matter who suits up, they will face a difficult challenge.  Moore is out, and Johnson is listed as questionable.  I’m afraid there is simply not enough depth or experience to hold back that level of pass offense for a full game.  It will be Roberts’ choice to either go down swinging by staying aggressive, or play a lot of zone and hope the front seven can pressure the pocket to help the secondary.

The Gator offense will be especially limited with Lagway out.  He’s listed as questionable for the game, but I think that’s more to force Texas to plan for him, as I don’t believe he’ll see any action.  Warner will get the start at QB, but I’m hoping Clay Millen, who transferred in from Colorado St. and has a lot of starting experience and a much better arm, gets a chance.  While he allegedly was beaten out in practice by Warner, I’d rather see him get the chance to show me in live action if he’s really that bad.  Again, I’d love to see the TEs get some touches to help whomever is at QB, but they have disappeared as receivers.  Somehow, some way, Florida will have to have to generate some offense through the air, or there’s no chance of winning this game barring an unforeseen multitude of Texas turnovers.  The Longhorns are deep and talented on defense.  They are led in the secondary by Jahdae Barron who has 3 interceptions, LB Anthony Hill Jr. with 5.5 sacks, and Edge Colin Simmons with 4 sacks.  They have forced 20 turnovers and piled up 52 tackles for loss in 8 games.  It’s another huge challenge for the Gator O-line, and I’m not sure they can hold up as well as last week.  (Note – Side Quest……could the Gators’ NCAA-record streak of games without being shut out end?)

**Breaking News**  This just in……AD Scott Stricklin has given Napier the dreaded ‘Vote of Confidence’, stating that he’ll be back next season.  I don’t know how this could affect the mindset of the players – to their credit, they have played much better and for each other the past 3 games.  Does this provide Napier the leeway to actually coach more aggressively and play fast and loose?  I doubt it, as it’s just not part of his in-game DNA.  But perhaps it gives the team some confidence and a sense of what to expect in the future, and provides a boost.  That being said, I feel that the Gators put everything they had into the Georgia game, and having to bounce back the very next week against another Top 5 team away from home is just a bridge too far.

Pre-game sitrep: N/A (allegedly)

Post-game sitrep: could get interesting again

Prediction:

Texas 38

Florida 10

The Bataan death march begins.  Florida faces 4 consecutive Top 20 teams in the next 4 weeks, with 3 of them legitimate Playoff contenders as of this writing.  First up are the Georgia Bulldogs, who are coming off of their best performance of the season, whipping Texas in Austin 2 weeks ago.  This isn’t a vintage 2019-2023 Georgia team, but it’s still one of the best in the country, thanks to elite recruiting and the usual solid defense coached up by Kirby Smart.  There are some weaknesses that can be exploited by top teams, but Florida isn’t one of them right now.  Billy Napier continues to coach for his job, and this easily could be the (final) beginning of the end.

The Bulldog offense is led by QB Carson Beck.  He has had some struggles this season both with accuracy and turnovers, but is still one of the better SEC QBs.  Georgia’s running game – usually the strength of the team – has been inconsistent all season, as their O-line has taken a step back.  Their leading rusher and recent starter is someone all too familiar with Gator Nation – Trevor Etienne.  You can be sure Smart and Etienne would love to stick it to Florida, and you can bet they’ll try.  Beck has 3 solid targets at WR – Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett, Arian Smith, and Dillon Bell, who he looks for in clutch situations.  Florida’s secondary has shown improvement the past 3 games, and will be challenged much as it was in the opener against Miami.  Most importantly, CB Jason Marshall is out for the season after injuring his shoulder in the first half against Kentucky.  That’s a massive blow to the defense, despite the depth that position coach Will Harris has built up at cornerback.  The Gator front seven has to find a way to at least get a stalemate at the line of scrimmage and not allow Georgia to run the ball consistently well, and force the Bulldogs to challenge the best unit of the defense, even without Marshall.  If they allow Beck too much time in the pocket, though, it won’t matter how well the secondary plays.

On offense, the Gators will need to support DJ Lagway with some semblance of a running game, or else he’ll get eaten alive by an experienced and quality UGA defense.  You can be assured that the Bulldogs are well aware of his ability to complete the deep ball, so expect the safeties to keep things in front of them and force Lagway to make multiple reads and check down to the short and intermediate zones – areas he has not exploited yet.  Graham Mertz was able to get the TEs incorporated into the passing game, but they have disappeared with Lagway in the game, and that has to change.  WRs Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike have developed into a strong duo, but no one has stepped up behind them.  Tre Wilson is listed as out again, and there are rumors he won’t play again this season, or possibly ever for Florida again.  Aiden Mizell broke out for one game against Mississippi St., but that’s it.  The mystery continues – someone has to help.  We will see if RB Montrell Johnson is available for the game, but even if he is, Jaden Baugh has to get his share of carries based on his recent play.  This will be the biggest challenge Florida’s O-line has faced so far, as UGA has elite DEs led by Jalon Walker, and that group has been wrecking opponent passing games all season.  OTs Austin Barber and Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson have to stand up to the pressure and give Lagway a chance to make plays, or else it’s gonna be another long afternoon in Jacksonville.  There is little depth behind the starters for this game, as 3 backups with experience are out with injury.  Can Napier get the TEs and RBs involved enough in the passing game to give Lagway some easy throws, keep possession, sustain drives, and cover for the thin O-line?  I’m not confident.  This Bulldog defense is solid, but a step below recent seasons, including a lack of turning the ball over.  I hope that continues.

Georgia has everything to play for coming in, and Kirby Smart will have his team ready, as he hates Florida much the same way that Steve Spurrier hates the Bulldogs.  There’s just no way he or his team will overlook this game, and the Gators don’t have the overall talent or winning experience to hold up in this matchup.  It will take Florida’s best offensive performance of the season, along with winning the turnover battle, to have a chance at the upset…..and I just don’t see it happening.  I’d love to be wrong.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 or 2 (loss or win)

Prediction:

Georgia 34

Florida 17

It was a shockingly good Homecoming for Florida, as the Gators neutered the Mildcats 48-20 in front of a happy and relieved crowd at The Swamp.  After losing to this inferior program for 3 straight seasons, a sense of normalcy was restored into the series as it was the Gators’ opponent for a change left wondering what happened and in disarray after a big road loss.

This game provided a glimpse – however brief – into the possible future for the Gator offense.  Injuries forced Billy Napier to start DJ Lagway at QB and Jaden Baugh at RB, and both delivered in a big way.  Lagway completed only 7 of 14 passes, but totaled a whopping 259 yards with a series of deep strikes that gutted UK’s secondary.  Baugh tied the Florida freshman record with 5 TD runs, while showing strength and will in breaking many tackles along with plenty of yards after contact while piling up 112 yards.  Elijhah Badger again was the leader of the WR corps with 148 yards on just 3 receptions.  Lagway’s ability to run obviously helped to open up the running game, and his deep throws forced Kentucky to back off of the line of scrimmage – what a novel concept!  I’d still like to see the TEs incorporated more to help sustain drives, but hopefully, that comes with experience.

The Gator defense continued it’s recent run of improved play, holding the Mildcats to 317 yards of total offense – much of which came in garbage time.  Only 1 sack was recorded, but the front seven had consistent pressure into the backfield most of the night, forcing Brock Vandagriff into some hurried throws and also not allowing Kentucky to control the game on the ground, as it had been able to do the previous 3 games.  DTs Caleb Banks and Cam Jackson controlled the interior, while Jack Pyburn set the edge and made several big tackles – showing he’s finally 100% healthy after last years’ ACL injury suffered in the final game against F$U.  The Florida secondary also had a solid game with some tight coverage, pass breakups, and getting 3 interceptions in a single game for the first time in ages.  That tied last season’s total – which shows how terrible last year’s defense truly was.  Aaron Gates played his best game to date at the STAR position, making plays all over the field.  Devon Moore showed why he’s always been highly thought of as a CB with good coverage all evening.  Trikweze Bridges made his statement for a starting role at safety, totaling 11 tackles and flying all over the field.  Even Cormani McClain came to real life from his picture on the side of a milk carton, making a nice break on the ball for a pick 6 and an even better trail technique play to tip away a sure TD pass.  The only sour note was a potentially big one, however – Jason Marshall left the game right before the half with what appears to be at least a separated shoulder, putting his availability in question for the huge tests coming up on the schedule.

The questions being asked now are: Were injuries to Graham Mertz and Montrell Johnson the only reason we finally got to see Lagway and Baugh get to start against a legitimate opponent? (yes).  Why haven’t we seen this number of deep throws more often in the offense? (Mertz simply wasn’t capable of it).  Why haven’t we seen this level of aggression from the defense from the start of the season? (coaching malpractice).  For all of the deserved criticism leveled at Napier for 2 1/2 seasons and more than ever in 2024, the players obviously haven’t quit playing for each other and have shown legitimate improvement in the past 3 games.  I can only hope that continues.

Florida gets its second bye week of the season now before traveling to Jacksonville to renew hostilities with Georgia.  The Bulldogs will be coming off of a massive road win at then-#1 Texas, and look terrific on defense – again.  I’ll be back next week with my preview of the game.  For now……Go Gators!

It was there for the taking.  All Billy Napier had to do was keep it simple and make smart play calls to pull off the upset and take maybe a little pressure off of himself.  The defense (and an overrated Nico Iamaleava) had given Florida multiple opportunities to build a big early lead and get a much-needed rivalry win.  But Napier is gonna Napier, and along with an unfortunate knee injury to Graham Mertz that has ended his season, he literally fumbled away the opportunity and showed – again – why he’s incapable of being a successful SEC head coach.  And so the drumbeat for his firing remains deafening while a seemingly tone-deaf UAA and AD allow the program to continue to be torn down.

The Gator defense played perhaps it’s best game of Napier’s tenure, repeatedly getting off the field early, actually getting into the backfield to disrupt both run and pass plays on occasion, and make Iamaleava look bad in the process.  Jason Marshall had another excellent game in coverage.  The DEs set the edge and applied pressure on the QB, getting 3 sacks and 8 TFL.  The interior D-line held up for the most part, not allowing the multiple long runs up the middle that plagued this defense all season.  The LBs, especially Pup Howard, tackled pretty well in open space.  Even when the Gator offense started to collapse in the second half after Mertz left the game, they repeatedly stood up and gave the offense another opportunity to score.  This is what can happen when you win on first and second down, and actually force the opponent into must-pass situations.

The Florida offense looked functional and efficient with Mertz at the helm the entire first half.  They rolled up over 200 yards with a good mix of run vs. pass.  Mertz especially knows how to incorporate the TEs into the passing game, and hurt Tennessee with it.  The running game was having some success off tackle and outside.  However……Napier’s situational playcalling was horrendous.  Watching the Gators march into the Volunteer red zone 4 times in the first half, only to come away with a 3-0 halftime lead. was inexcusable.  Getting stuffed on the first 3rd-and-1 that led to a short FG and early lead was bad enough.  But Rural Meyer was just getting warmed up.  Then came the stops on both 3rd- and 4th-and-1, the latter on an ill-advised sweep play that was poorly blocked.  Then, to really add insult to injury, the failed 1st-and-goal play from the 1-yard line – a QB sneak by Mertz that he fumbled – instead of letting Montrell Johnson finish a drive where he was running successfully.  Even subbing in DJ Lagway to make The Vols honor his running ability would have helped.  You can’t make this sh*t up, even when playing a board game like Strat-O-Matic.  Mertz finally led a TD drive in the 3rd quarter and capped it off with a nice touch pass to Arlis Boardingham, but he had already sustained a torn ACL a few plays earlier on a scramble for a first down, and had gutted it out until then.  Then, even with Napier’s terrible calls leading to a 3rd-and-17 with 39 seconds left in regulation, Lagway climbed up into the pocket and threw a laser to Chimere Dike on a slant route for the possible tying or winning TD. That’s when Napier showed everyone – again – his lack of aggression and killer instinct, settling for the tying extra point.  Finally, the offensive series in overtime was truly offensive.  A telegraphed run play on first down, a telegraphed screen play on second down that was horribly executed and lost 5 yards, and finally a telegraphed third down draw play that everyone knew would be called, setting up a long FG attempt that Trey Smack missed wide right.  Absolutely brutal.

Special Teams were ‘Gamechangers’ once again – for the wrong reasons.  Dike’s excellent punt returns were not enough to offset a 12 men on the field penalty that erased a successful FG at the end of the first half, a few short punts from Jeremy Crawshaw, and then Smack’s missed FG attempt in overtime.  I guess someone must have sabotaged Napier’s 11-spot Twister mat he incorporated for the ‘Gamechangers”, to try and prevent that idiocy from happening again.  That allowed Tennessee to go into their OT possession knowing they only needed to not go backwards or turn the ball over in order to at a minimum have an easy FG attempt for the win.  At that point you could almost see the shoulders of the defense finally collapse, as Tennessee easily scored in 4 quick plays to steal the win.  Another rivalry game – another loss.  It’s all part of the “plan”.

Florida now limps back to The Swamp for it’s Homecoming date with Kentucky.  The Mildcats were talking proud coming into this season, but have been put back into their rightful place as middle-of-the-pack fodder.  Sadly, that’s right where the Gators are now, along with South Carolina and UK – traditional mediocre programs going nowhere.  Kentucky is coming off a home loss to Vanderbilt, who right now is playing better than any of those 3 programs.  Mark Stoops briefly considered taking the Texas A&M job he was offered in the offseason, and foolishly returned to Lexington, which angered what football fan base they have and had to impact the team’s motivation somewhat.

Kentucky’s offense is still predicated on it’s running game, despite adding what they thought would be a big upgrade at QB in Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff.  The Mildcats are 114th in the country in scoring, and the passing game has struggled to gain any consistency or explosiveness.  In fact, Vandagriff has been forced to run the ball much more than they hoped, and has taken a lot of punishment in doing so while being second on the team in carries behind Demie Sumo, who is by far their leading rusher.  Dane Key is their favored WR, and Marshall again gets the chance to shut down another good WR while adding to his fast-improving NFL Draft resume.  Despite all of their offensive problems, you can bet that Stoops will still try to hammer away at a soft Gator interior run defense as long as possible, to shorten the game and make it another ugly, low-scoring affair that favors his team.  And Napier is the perfect person to try it against, as he’s most comfortable playing his “complementary football”, with slow, time-consuming drives that often lead to little or no points.

The Mildcats are relying heavily on their defense, which is 9th in the country in points allowed per game and has stood up repeatedly when forced into bad situations by their offense.  Sounds depressingly familiar, and if only Florida could say the same of it’s own defense since the start of 2022.  UK has shut down every team they have played to date, which bodes ill for a true freshman QB being coached up by Napier.  Yards and explosive plays will be tough to come by, and Lagway is going to have to play a safer game than he would like to.  He’ll also have to protect himself more than usual, as he’s now the starter the remainder of the season.  That takes away a lot of the running dimension he would normally bring to the game, and now he’ll have to improve his reading of coverages and accuracy even quicker.  This all will unfortunately fall right into Napier’s wheelhouse of conservatism so I’m expecting little creativity or scheme changes even with a much more athletic QB with a stronger arm.

So, instead of coming home off of an inspiring rivalry win and with some real momentum and 3 straight victories, Napier again gives Gator Nation another gut punch or, more accurately, another kick in the groin, and shows again why he’s in over his head and literally stealing money from the University of Florida.  There is zero chance he will change or improve, and the inevitable lingers on as we have to watch him remain on the sidelines for now.  Another bye week awaits after this game, and again that would be a good time to fire him, but the UAA and AD are gonna ride or die with Basement Billy, it seems.  I’m picking Florida to win only because this is a home game.  As much as I’d love for Lagway to rack up big numbers in an exciting win and give hope for the future, I’ve seen too much in the past 31 games to expect it.  A loss wouldn’t surprise me, but would still be another bitter pill to swallow for Gator Nation.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 (win or loss)

Prediction:

Florida 23

Kentucky 20

Well, at least Gator fans can crawl out of their rural Central Florida basements and not worry about hearing trash talk from UCF Golden Showers, er, Golden Knight fans.  Florida controlled the game from start to finish with a workmanlike 24-13 win that wasn’t as close as the final score.  Sadly despite the win, this game epitomized just another reason Billy Napier shouldn’t continue as head coach.  Just like last year’s Tennessee game at The Swamp, he pulled in the reins after a very good first half and essentially decided to hold on to a big lead and went into a shell.  This isn’t the attitude of a big-time, winning program, and it sucked the life out of the team and fans during a tedious second half of football.

Florida’s offense did some good things in the first half, especially in the passing game.  Both Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway spread the ball around and forced UCF’s defense to defend more than just a 5-yard window surrounding the line of scrimmage.  Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike made some big plays, and freshman Tank Hawkins received extended snaps due to injuries to Tre Wilson and Aiden Mizell and showed some speed and quickness in the open field.  The running game was solid, if unspectacular, picking up key first downs to extend drives and controlling time of possession.  Then……the Napier Effect took hold, and the next 30 minutes became an interminable watch until the game ended.  This was the opportunity to let the offense stretch out for 60 minutes and cash in some additional scores for a big win, but Napier seemingly won’t allow it.

The Gator defense looked improved against the run, but I still don’t know how much of that is based upon the quality of the opponent.  The front seven did occasionally get pressure on KJ Jefferson, and showed again why he’s mostly a TE playing QB.  UCF’s passing game sucked, and Gus Malzahn simply can’t seem to develop an efficient passing game no matter where he coaches.  Once Jefferson had to come off of his first read, he was dead in the water, and either took a sack or had to throw the ball away.  CB Jason Marshall again made his case of all-SEC honors, shutting down Kobe Hudson all night.  The Knights still pushed the Gator D-line back too often for me to declare a permanent step forward for the defense just yet, however.

Now it’s on the Rocky Top to face Tennessee, who is coming off of a stunning upset loss at Arkansas.  After some blowout wins against easy competition, they were punched in the mouth by the Razorbacks and didn’t look good trying to fight for 60 minutes.  I was hoping they’d come into this game overlooking the Gators and perhaps come out flat, but I’m afraid that won’t be the case now.

What looked like a huge mismatch of the Vol offense vs. the Gator defense may be offset somewhat by injuries to their 3 top WRs and their #2 RB.  The possible impact to their efficiency won’t be known until the game starts, but it appears WR Squirrel White (what a perfect name for a Tennessee player) may miss the game with a broken hand, while Bru McCoy and Chris Brazzell will both play at less than 100%.  Despite all the attention given to Tennessee’s fast-paced offense and passing game, many forget their running game is very good, led by Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop.  Both average over 6 yards per carry and have good speed, and unless the Florida front seven at least slows them down, it will be another long night for the Gators.  QB Nico Iamaleava has had some moments so far, but lately is starting to look like the freshman he is as more film becomes available on him.  He is struggling to read defenses that give him multiple looks, but can Florida DC Ron Roberts actually put together a comprehensive, quality game plan?   I suspect Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel will lean on the running game early and often, forcing the Gators to prove they can at least slow down a quality team while giving his young QB a comfort zone without placing him in many must-pass scenarios.  The he will try to strike with some deep shots in his up-tempo offense.

The Volunteers come into the game with a top-5 ranked defense that has a lot of speed, but I will say that it’s ranking is as much a result of playing outmanned opponents, including an Arkansas team that beat them with a freshman backup QB getting most of the snaps last week.  It appears the Gator offense will continue to run it’s 2 QB rotation, with Mertz getting 2 series to 1 for Lagway……at least until Napier proves he’ll actually ride the hot hand.  I expect Tennessee to load up the box and force Florida to win by passing the ball, which is the usual and expected game plan from any Gator opponent.  I did like the fact that Florida ran more 3- and 4-WR looks and less 2 TE sets against UCF, and it’s my hope that continues.  Badger, Dike, and hopefully some combination of Mizell/Hawkins/Wilson (depending on injury status) are capable of some big plays downfield if given the opportunity.  I’m sure Napier will want (as always) to control the game by running the football, but he likely will have to get out of his comfort zone and reverse tendencies by throwing a lot more on early downs, and more often than usual.  

Unfortunately, Tennessee’s loss at Arkansas likely refocuses their players and Florida will face a motivated, angry team.  It’s been hard enough for Napier and the Gators to play competitively on the road against good teams during his tenure, and I’m afraid that if Florida falls behind early by multiple scores (again), that as usual neither the offense nor playcaller are equipped to overcome that.  IF……if the Gators can somehow withstand the expected early emotional onslaught from the Volunteers or shockingly take an early lead, perhaps the pressure starts to affect Iamaleava and he makes some critical mistakes.  There’s no evidence in 2+ seasons that a Napier team is capable of it, though, and the road struggles likely continue until proven otherwise.  If the Gators can stay close by halftime things could get interesting in the second half, but I don’t see it happening.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 2

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 (loss)

Prediction:

Tennessee 38

Florida 17

It’s back to work for the Gators, as they welcome the UCF Knights to the Swamp after a bye week.  The win over Mississippi St. did little to assuage the critics of Billy Napier and his entire program, and the weekly execution vigil restarts with the Sword of Damocles ready to fall at any moment.

Florida’s offense needs to be ready to score early and often.  UCF’s defense was exposed (again) by a team with a pulse in Colorado, getting roasted for 48 points in a blowout home loss last week.  I’m sure Napier will wish to play his usual “complimentary football” and control the clock with the running game, but that likely won’t be enough as the Gator defense has shown no inclination to actually play it.  Yes, balance is needed, but the Gator QBs have to attack a weak secondary and allow it’s receivers to make plays downfield.  WRs Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike have been steady, but I hope Aiden Mizell has finally found his footing after a breakout performance at MSU and contributes more explosive plays.  The TEs have been missing for much of 2024, and they need to get involved.  Napier says he will “stick to the plan” regarding the QB rotation – whatever that means.  Allegedly there were good practices and “improvement” by the O-line during the bye week, but I remain skeptical.  The playcalling needs to stay aggressive for 60 minutes.

The Florida defense had better be ready to do something it hasn’t all season – at least slow down an opponent’s running game.  UCF comes in with one of the best rushing attacks in the country (albeit against some weaker competition), with RB RJ Harvey leading the way.  He’s a tough runner with some power and decent speed, and has to be contained.  QB KJ Jefferson transferred to UCF from Arkansas, and is no stranger to the Gators.  He led an improbable upset win last season at the Swamp, mostly by running wild in the second half and overtime.  Maybe……maybe this time around the defensive coordinator will learn to spy him and force him to play more as a pocket passer, where he struggles.  UCF’s offense under Gus Malzahn is his usual recipe – pound the run, including a generous number of carries by the QB, and then try to either hit a long pass over the top or slip a RB out into the flat or on a wheel route isolated on a LB.  It’s not complicated, but apparently even simplicity is often too hard to comprehend for Florida’s run of crap coordinators.  Kobe Hudson is the Knights’ big-play WR, so I expect Jason Marshall to be covering him all evening.  Jefferson will struggle in must-pass situations, and that’s where the defense can actually get the ball back for the offense on occasion.

Make no mistake – this is UCF’s biggest game of the season, despite being fortunate to fall into a conference upgrade to the Big 12.  Malzahn will treat this game like it’s the Super Bowl for them, and he’ll throw everything into the game plan.  It’s going to be interesting to see how many Knight “fans” are in the Swamp for this one.  Sadly, I expect a good turnout considering the poor play of the Gators turning off it’s fan base and UCF “fans” buying up secondary market tickets anywhere they can because of the close proximity of Orlando to Gainesville.

Napier had better find a way to show some fire and have his team play with some urgency, or else this will be the last of a long line of embarrassments that leads to his firing.  I’m expecting a wild, unpredictable ebb-and-flow of emotions and momentum during the game, and a high-scoring affair.  This game could wind up looking a lot like last year’s game at South Carolina, where Napier was forced by the opponent into a shootout.  Many Gator fans are resigned to a loss, but I’m gonna go down in flames by predicting a close win and another stay of execution for Napier until perhaps Florida gets run out of the stadium next week at Tennessee.

Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1

Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 0 (loss), DEFCON 1 or 2 (win)

Prediction:

Florida 38

UCF 35