Florida returns from it’s bye week by being thrown right into the deep end, facing a tough Georgia team coming off of it’s own bye week and stewing after an ugly upset loss at home to Auburn. This year’s game is at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, due to the renovations being made to EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. I’m sure the Bulldog faithful are looking forward to this game being so much closer to Athens and also in-state.
If Florida is to have any chance at victory, it’s offense will have to find ways to move the ball and also score touchdowns against another terrific Georgia defense. OC Buster Faulkner has experience against the Bulldogs, having coached against them the past few years while at Georgia Tech. He’s had success against Kirby Smart, but that was with a big, tough QB that ran the ball better than he threw it, which always gives the Dawgs trouble. The Gators do not have that type of QB, so we may see a similar game plan to the one employed at Texas – a conservative, grind-it-out scheme that uses safe, short throws and tries to get enough push for Jaden Baugh and the running game to generate first downs, control the clock, and shorten the game. Perhaps Faulkner schemes in more QB runs than expected, throwing injury caution to the wind, but that’s a huge risk. As much as I’d love to see a wide-open attack, the Florida O-line just isn’t good enough right now to stand up against Georgia’s front seven, which is among the best in the country. Whether it’s Tramell Jones getting his second start or Aaron Philo returning from injury, either one will need to be quick and decisive in their reads and make accurate throws. If they can’t do that, then it will be a long afternoon for the Gators, as they likely can’t hold down Georgia’s offense consistently. The Florida WRs have to come up big in this game – here’s hoping the extra week of rest helps many of them heal up, including Dallas Wilson, Eric Singleton, and Vernell Brown III, who has been out for a month.
This will be the most talented and physical defense Florida plays this season, and even if the offense plays at peak efficiency it may not be enough unless they can score at least 24 points while also winning the time of possession battle. Georgia is led by an elite LB corps that includes 3 of the team’s 4 leading tacklers – Raylen Wilson, Chris Cole, and Justin Williams. Wilson and Cole have 6.5 sacks between them, and Cole will be a NFL 1st-round pick. Their secondary is unique in that their DBs aren’t afraid to mix it up against the run and are tough and physical. Safety Rasean Dinkins and DB KJ Boldin are all-SEC candidates, with Boldin being someone that Florida badly wanted out of high school. DL Jordan Hall and Nnamdi Ogboko are stout interior linemen that are hard to move and allow the LBs to clean things up. At a minimum this matchup will be a measuring stick for Jon Sumrall and his offensive staff to evaluate where they need to eventually get to become a true title contender – especially up front.
The Florida defense will have it’s hands full against a Georgia offense that is averaging 470 yards per game – 272 passing and 198 rushing. QB Gunner Stockton leads the SEC in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating. Many of his throws are quick outs or screens, with occasional seam routes to his TEs and WRs. There is no true #1 target – 4 WRs, 2 RBs, and 1 TE all have between 10 and 20 catches. The Gators can’t afford to play any soft coverage, or they will die from the proverbial thousand cuts. This will be a test of man coverage and open-field tackling – the Bulldogs thrive and yards after the catch. Georgia’s running game is solid as usual, led by RBs Dwight Phillips, Chauncey Bowens, and Nate Frazier. Bowens and Phillips are also targets in the short passing game. Every level of Florida’s defense will be tested and have to have big games in order to slow the Bulldogs down enough to have a chance for the upset. I hope to see a continuation of the aggressive, attacking scheme for the front seven deployed at Texas, to try and disrupt the LOS and pressure Stockton. That’s preferable to sitting back and allowing Georgia to dictate the action and control the clock.
Both teams come in with excellent special teams, so I don’t see any real advantage there. Of course, Florida could help itself out with a big kick return, while the coverage unit needs to tighten up after allowing a punt return TD at Texas. We’ll see if VB3 is ready to play – he could be a difference-maker in the return game.
The SEC conference schedule has already proven this year to be more volatile than perhaps ever, with many solid favorites getting upset – both on the road and at home. That alone shows that Florida has a chance to pull off a major upset this week, but the game still must be played. Coach Sumrall should have his team ready after a much-needed bye week. The SEC slate is such a grind and physically demanding, and the Gators were pretty beaten up even before winning at Texas – especially the WR room. There will be a solid and loud contingent of Gator fans in Atlanta, with myself among them, rooting for the upset. Realistically it will be a tall task to accomplish, but that’s why they play the games – especially rivalry games – right?
Prediction:
Georgia 31
Florida 17