A suddenly reeling Florida now must go on the road to face a Texas team coming off of a bitter and mostly-self-inflicted loss to Oklahoma in it’s annual rivalry game. You can bet the Longhorns will be pissed off even more than trying to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss at The Swamp to Billy Napier of all people. Any hopes I had of Texas sleepwalking into this game with an early 11:00 am local kickoff and perhaps a mental letdown after the Red River Rivalry game have now evaporated.
If Florida is to have any chance at all to steal a huge upset win, the defense somehow has to find a way to gain some semblance of stability – especially in the secondary. QB Arch Manning is vastly overhyped and overrated and can be forced into mistakes, but I just don’t know if DC Brad White (or Sumrall, or whomever) can put the Gator defenders in position often enough to generate some turnovers and get enough stops to give a struggling Gator offense enough opportunities to win. Unfortunately, I suspect that means we will see more zone coverage to try and force the Longhorns and Manning to be patient and hope for physical or mental mistakes – not comforting. The front seven showed more aggression in it’s pass rush last week, and I think they can cause problems for Manning despite his running ability. The tackling last week against South Carolina was the worst of the season, and that is something that can be improved just from better focus and effort – if the defenders aren’t starting to mentally check out. I sure hope not – the season is only half way over, but you can sense the growing frustration among the Gator defenders.Leaders like Jayden Woods and Myles Graham have to make some big plays to inject some juice into the defense. Finally – somehow, some way, the secondary has to play better by getting into the right position and sticking to the Longhorn receivers. I’ve seen no evidence of it to date, but here’s (blindly) hoping. If not, expect another blowout loss.
Florida’s offense will be facing by far it’s toughest defense to date. Texas is loaded with talent at all three levels, allowing only 96 yards rushing and 16 points per game. DE Colin Simmons leads the SEC with 9.5 sacks, 12.5 TFL, and is a likely 1st-round NFL pick. LBs Rasheem Biles and Justin Cryer and excellent at filling gaps and also in coverage. And as usual Texas is loaded with elite secondary talent, led by Jelani McDonald, Kade Phillips, and Derek Williams. All three are sure tacklers and also aren’t afraid of playing run support. Buster Faulkner will have his plate full trying to establish any sort of consistent offense against this group, and perhaps will have to rely more on specific formations and individual big plays than any methodical drives led by the running game. I’m guessing that Aaron Philo will start at QB, and he’ll have to play his best game to have any chance of success. But don’t be surprised to see Tramell Jones come in for a few series as early as the first half to perhaps throw the Longhorns a few changeups and perhaps spark the offense with some specific play calls. The Gator WRs need to play much better and more aggressively, despite nagging injuries to Dallas Wilson and Bailey Stockton. Here’s hoping that VB3 will return to action, but he will not be at 100%, just like Eric Singleton, who is gamely trying to play each week but never was allowed to recover from his ankle injury in the opener. Perhaps either TJ Abrams or Micah Mays can surprise, but neither has done much so far. It’s looking bleak for the offense, unless the O-line suddenly surprises again and gets out of it’s recent funk. This is simply not a favorable matchup for Florida.
Jon Sumrall and the Gators are staring at a potential 5- or 6-game losing streak, and one of the most difficult things to do in sports sometimes is to reverse a sudden and massive shift in momentum. The coaches and players are all saying the right things – for now – but I’m afraid the weaknesses in the roster have been exposed and that the better opponents on the schedule can exploit them too easily to overcome. Of course, one big win can change the narrative, but that looks like a tall order right now. I’m afraid there’s gonna be Gator meat added to the BBQ menus in Austin this weekend.
Prediction:
Texas 41
Florida 17