Welcome to the ‘Massive Disappointment Bowl’, between 2 teams that had aspirations for big seasons and instead have had them turned into busts. The only juice is that this is a rivalry game, but you wonder if either team’s players will show up with any real interest. F$U actually can still make it to a bowl game with 6 wins, so they actually have more motivation than Florida, which has looked like it’s playing out the string and wanting to get the season over with.
The Seminole offense looks essentially like their 2023 version, albeit with lesser talent. QB Thomas Castellanos plays the role of Jordan Travis – dangerous runner, poor passer, and WR Duce Robinson the role of Johnny Wilson – oversized WR that tries to physically overpower DBs and is good at jump balls. Castellanos is their leading ball carrier in OC Gus Malzahn’s weird rushing scheme, and they spread the balance of the carries among a plethora of RBs. They have piled up some decent numbers against their usual weak ACC schedule, but if they are physically challenged or fall behind, tend to make mistakes and fold under pressure. The plan for the Gator defense is simple – contain Castellanos in the pocket, employ a spy to limit his running when the protection breaks down, and use bracket coverage on Robinson to force other players to step up. F$U’s O-line has had it’s struggles, and Florida should be able to get penetration into the backfield and disrupt plays – if the players are motivated. If DT Michael Boireau can play, the rotation of him, Jamari Lyons, and Caleb Banks could be disruptive. The Gator secondary has been riddled with injuries, and DC Ron Roberts needs to actually earn his salary in his last game and give these guys their best chance of winning with an aggressive scheme.
I know what I want to see from Florida’s offense, but I also know what they are (and aren’t) capable of, especially with the terrible playcalling and game-planning by the offensive staff. RB Jaden Baugh is the one consistent threat on offense, and even if F$U’s defense keys on him, must see 25+ touches running and receiving. The WR corps has to contribute beyond just Vernell Brown, and the O-line needs to show some pride and play better – and smarter – than it has most of the season. Since the Gators seem incapable of generating many explosive plays, it will have to be a grind combined with being opportunistic. Sadly, there have been precious few examples of that this season. Florida State’s defense has been erratic most of the season, but does have some excellent talent. Safety Earl Little is by far their leading tackler, and also has 4 interceptions. LB Blake Nichelson is disruptive, and DE Mandrell Desir has racked up 6 sacks. Their defensive statistics overall look impressive, but they have been exploited by better teams. It all comes down to the limitations of Florida’s offensive talent and whether the Florida staff goes out with one final professional effort to maximize what the players can execute.
It’s hard to believe that the combined wins coming into this year’s game is less than last year, when F$U finished 2-10. But the Gator program took it’s turn cratering in 2025, and this matchup resembles the early 1970s based on where each program is. Sadly, there is more interest from Gator Nation in the coaching search than the results on the field. But at least Florida is not stuck with a head coach it doesn’t want like F$U is with Mike Norvell, with the albatross of a $50M+ buyout making him essentially unfireable for another season or two. That narrative will kill them in recruiting and through the portal.
Gator Nation has admirably supported the team by continually filling the Swamp during this disastrous season, and I hope they do so on more time to try and rally the team. The Gator players deserve so much better than what the coaches, AD, and UAA have done to them since 2022, and I understand why many have mentally started to check out. Florida can easily stay with the Seminoles and win this game, but only if the players are engaged for 60 minutes and play for themselves and their teammates. Hopefully they can overcome their own coaching staff to win the game. The Gator players have one last chance to put something positive on film for their next head coach and/or team, while spoiling FSU’s bowl opportunity. Hoping for the best, expecting the worst, and I have no idea what’s going to happen.
Prediction:
Florida St. 27
Florida 24