Florida heads to the Bluegrass State to take on Kentucky Saturday night, in a game that has no interest or juice outside of two disappointed fan bases. Both teams have struggled on offense, and have defenses that have carried their respective team for much of the season but are now starting to crack under the constant pressure to keep the game within reach. I can’t wait!
The Gator offense showed some life last week against Georgia, but ultimately scored only 20 points due to erratic QB play and an underperforming O-line. And now things are even worse, with injuries sidelining WRs Dallas Wilson and Tre Wilson. Vernell Brown III is a game time decision, and even if he plays he won’t be 100% healthy. This likely means the Wildcat defense can load up to stop the run, and it could be another long night for Jaden Baugh to try and keep the chains moving and give DJ Lagway and the remaining receivers a chance at victory. I expect Kentucky to blitz early and often to exploit the shaky play of Lagway and the O-line – it could be a real struggle for them. Unless Brown, J Michael Sturdivant, or Aidan Mizell somehow can make a few big plays, this could get ugly, and against a bad Kentucky team that Florida normally should defeat handily. It may be time to give some snaps to true freshman Naeshaun Montgomery, who impressed in fall practice. The coaching staff needs to give Lagway some quick throws to beat the pressure and generate a few scoring drives. Kentucky’s leading tacklers are LB Alex Afari Jr. and DBs Ty Bryant and Jordan Lovett, which indicates that perhaps Florida can generate a running game against a Wildcat D-line that has not impressed this season.
The Gator defense should have a marked advantage over a Kentucky offense that has been bad against SEC competition. The QB play between starter Cutter Boley and Zack Calzada has been inefficient and lacking in explosive plays. Calzada may have to start due to injuries to Boley, and if he does play the Florida front seven will need to apply pressure and force him into mistakes. The Wildcats, as usual, depend on their running game, led by RBs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell. Neither is a particular threat to break a long run, but both are tough inside runners that can break tackles. UK’s passing game has struggled all season, and Florida’s secondary needs to make sure that continues to give the offense enough chances to score points.
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops will do his usual in these circumstances – ugly up the game, try to control the clock and win time of possession, and hope the opponent implodes with turnovers. What’s scary is that it could actually work – again – against a Gator offense lacking in confidence and playmakers right now. I’m hopeful that somehow the coaching staff can squeeze enough out of the guys that can play and get out of Lexington with a close win. If the defense can generate some turnovers of it’s own, the job will be much easier, but something tells me that this will be another game decided in the 4th quarter. The fear is that the team may have little left in the tank mentally or physically after taking Georgia to the limit last week, and that the carryover effect may be a detrimental one. It’s hard to believe Florida has lost it’s last 2 trips to Lexington, and could lose again.
Prediction:
Florida 20
Kentucky 17