Florida got mostly what it wanted out of the Samford game with an easy 45-7 win. DJ Lagway went almost the entire way at QB, showing off his arm strength with some excellent deep throws for scores while avoiding the rush when needed with his mobility. Most of the depth chart received snaps, and the outcome was never in doubt, despite some ugly plays (and play calls) in the first half.
The O-line is going to be an issue all year. Even against Samford they struggled at times opening holes for the running game or protecting Lagway. The weird substitution patterns persist, and the best 5 guys aren’t playing together enough to develop cohesion – just poor management from both Billy Napier and Rob Sale. WRs Elijhah Badger and Tre Wilson had big games, and Lagway’s ability to throw accurate deep balls allowed Aiden Mizell and Tank Hawkins to score on long plays. Once again, Wilson was a forgotten man for the entire first half, then when utilized he broke off big gains. The TEs still aren’t contributing much in the passing game, which is both surprising and troubling. Both Gator QBs need some sort of quick outlet when under pressure.
The Gator defense had success most of the night, but still showed flaws defending the running game and a mobile QB. Some young DL like freshman Michael Boireau received extended snaps, and frankly, looked better than guys like Des Watson. LB Shemar James got dinged early on and is already playing through multiple injuries this early in the season – not a good sign for making it through such a challenging schedule. The depth chart is so thin behind him, though, that he’s forced into playing extended snaps and not being given enough rest. The pass rush was somewhat better, but again, it seems that was mostly due to the opponent. The secondary had a good night, but that was mostly a reflection of how poor Samford’s passing game was.
I’m not going to put much stock into this result. Samford was outmanned, and yet still had too many moments of moving the ball against the Gator defense and being able to get some pressure with it’s pass rush against a poor Gator O-line. There was marginal improvement along both sides of the LOS for Florida with some personnel changes, but there’s a long way to go to compete against a schedule that’s only going to get much more difficult.
Next up for Florida is Texas A&M, who the Gators will face for the 4th time already since they joined the SEC in 2012. The Aggies began their season with a disappointing home loss to Notre Dame, which in turn lost at home last week to Northern Illinois of all teams, rubbing salt into the wounds of the A&M fan base. There has been a LOT of change in College Station since last season – firing Dumbo Fishey, roster turnover, and a new head coach in Mike Elko. Elko had a successful stint at Duke, and has coached in the state of Texas previously for many years at various jobs. He’s a defensive-minded coach first, and it’s already shown in just 2 games, as their defense has looked much improved. The Aggies paid for a lot of talent the past 3 seasons, and it appears Elko may finally get some payoff from it. Florida’s offense is going to have a tough time if it tries to grind out time-consuming, extended drives against a stout front seven. As much as it’s against Napier’s nature to play a ball-control offense, it’s going to take some deep shots and lower-percentage plays to make things easier for a struggling O-line and unsettled QB situation. Napier has named Graham Mertz as the starter – not surprising given his loyalty to Mertz, but also causing some consternation in Gator Nation, who recognize Lagway’s physical gifts and also realize that this season may be a lost one and want the young guy to get all the experience he can. It will be a balancing act for Napier based upon the flow of the game, the score, and of course how well Mertz starts out, but there’s nothing Napier has shown in 2+ seasons to provide evidence he has a feel for the game flow, so it could get ugly. The O-line will have to show massive improvement in both run- and pass-blocking. The skill players are more than capable of making plays, but only if given the opportunity. Napier has to know his job is on the line nearly week-to-week now, so I can only hope he, along with Russ Callaway, make necessary changes and are ready.
Texas A&M has their own problems on offense, and those problems mirror Florida’s. They have a solid running game led by Le’Veon Moss, and I expect a heavy dose of carries from him. Their QB is Conner Weigman, who came in with a lot of hype 2 years ago and hasn’t delivered to date. He’s inaccurate, and, while showing some occasional scrambling ability, isn’t a significant running threat. Their WR corps is led by Cyrus Allen, but that group has not exhibited big-play capability, which has hampered their offense. Knowing Elko’s coaching background as a defense-first guy, and seeing what their offense can (and can’t) do, this looks like it could be a lower-scoring game than some expect, and stay close until the last possession. The Gator defense needs to be ready for a physical running game. The secondary will need to include a lot of man-to-man coverage, so the front seven can commit to stopping the run. If they can force the Aggies into a lot of 3rd down situations, they could generate some turnovers or at least give the Gator offense more possessions.
Gator Nation is beyond impatient for some sustained success, including winning home games against legitimate teams. The howls for Napier to be fired are being heard loud and clear by the UAA, and there’s only one way to alleviate some of the noise – start winning games. Could this be Napier’s last home game as head coach? It very well could be with another loss and a bye week after the next game. Florida matches up better against Texas A&M than against Miami, but that’s still not terribly comforting based on the level of play shown so far. The Swamp crowd is gonna get restless very early on unless the Gators come out fast. For now, I’m afraid that the Aggie defense, combined with Napier’s struggles on game days, doesn’t bode well for Florida.
Pre-game sitrep: DEFCON 1
Post-game sitrep: DEFCON 1 (loss); DEFCON 2 (win)
Prediction:
Texas A&M 24
Florida 20