Kentucky Review / Alabama Preview

Beat AlabamaThat’s 25 in a row over the Mildcats, as Florida rolled into Lexington and rolled UK. Didn’t even need to de-claw a defenseless bunch of kitties.

The biggest benefit from this game was to give the younger, inexperienced players a positive first road result. Other than Jon Halapio, it looks like the Gators escaped relatively healthy. Coach Weis used this game to showcase Rainey and Demps (again) as the home-run threats they are, and also to knock the rust off of the Wildcat formation with both Rainey and Burton running at will. Good stuff to put on film for future opponents to spend some time on. Brantley hit a home run down the seam to Christian, a pattern that has been open quite often already, but finally exploited. He also made some good throws downfield to Hammond (finally). Another vanilla scheme overall, as it was obvious early on that UK was out-classed across the board.

The Gator defense played well, but had some disappointing run support on the edges. It appeared as if the DEs simply didn’t care about the run with the Mildcats so far behind, but it showed a lack of experience and discipline that must improve. The pass coverage was generally good, with some more missed opportunities for interceptions. Again, a pretty vanilla scheme, so there isn’t much on tape for opponents to exploit.

It’s going to be a long year for UK, and the Joker will be missing from the deck if his team continues to get blown out.

On to the Bataan death march. This is the toughest month of games in many years for the Gators beginning this week against Alabama. Similar to 2010, Florida rolled through September, but hopefully will have some better results in October 2011.

There’s a lot of talk that Weis will throw everything in the playbook at the Tide this Saturday, but given how young and inexperienced this offense is, I actually think he’s going to keep the game plan simple, with just a few wrinkles in formations, and a handful of “special” plays thrown in when the situation is favorable. If you are thinking instead of playing fast against Bama’s defense, you have no chance. Many say this game is all on Brantley to perform well, but it’s the OL that will dictate any real success. This group has jelled nicely in a short time, but the leap in competition may be too much of a challenge. Again, you don’t want these guys thinking about assignments while mistakes lead to a clear path to the QB.

Bama knows that Florida will try and isolate Rainey and Demps on the LBs, whether it’s with screen passes or delay routes, so I’d expect more nickel looks than Saban usually likes to run. Even in this look, Bama will probably attempt to stuff the run,and take it’s chances with a solid secondary against a group of Gator WRs that, frankly, has underachieved to date. Weis is really going to have to be creative with the routes. There is much anticipation that, with the return of Reed, that the TEs will get a lot of chances to make plays. I’m hopeful some success will help to open up the LOS, but unless the OL holds it own, the TEs may have to be kept in to block more often than desired.

Florida’s DL performance will ultimately determine the chances of winning. This is a top 10 group nationally, and now it’s time to handle your business on your own to allow the LBs and secondary to play straight up and take their chances. It’s no secret that the Tide will seek to pound the rock to control tempo and wear down the opponent. Trent Richardson in one of the top RBs in the nation, and is also a sneaky good receiver in their screen package, which actually generates a lot of their big offensive plays. Lacy is a capable backup. I really don’t fear their TEs and WRs.

What will be a importance is getting some pressure and some hits on A.J. McCarron. The Gators need to get in his head and show what it is to play a tough SEC team on the road. Coach Muschamp will certainly have some new blitz packages not seen before this season to try and confuse him, and to get the defense off the field as often as possible.

Florida’s special teams really have to step up their play across the board starting this week. The kickoff coverage has been shaky, and Lerner is much too inconsistent as the punter so far. Poor play by this unit evens things out quickly, or even tips the momentum to a good visiting team that relies on defense and special teams first. Caleb Sturgis has to kick the ball deep on kickoffs all night. He could be the guy that the game ultimately comes down to late, and has been terrific on FGs so far.

I really think the Florida coaching staff will not give the players too much new stuff to do, and will attempt to make this a 4th quarter game, which usually favors the home team. It should be a tremendous atmosphere in the Swamp, but a stupid play on special teams or some early turnovers will negate that advantage quickly.

Too many ‘what-ifs’ for a young Gator team. The Gator in me really feels this is a winnable game, and Florida has enough playmakers on both offense and defense to get it done. However, you cannot undervalue experience and a great defense in the SEC, and I think Alabama holds on for a tough win.

Prediction – Alabama 24 Florida 17

Tennessee Review / Kentucky Preview

 Once again the Gators reminded the Vols who owns this series, putting a beatdown on the Inbreds at the Swamp. The game was essentially a 10-point blowout, as only a multitude of penalties and a turnover gave Tennessee any chance at all to score points.

 The defense achieved its goal of making the UT attack one-dimensional, stuffing the run all game long and making life miserable for trash-talking Tyler Bray, just another Vol QB to get pounded in the Swamp. The DL dominated throughout – especially Dominique Easley, who’s looking like a potential all-SEC player right now – with Jaye Howard right behind him. The return of Sharrif Floyd certainly helped out at DE, and even Ron Powell showed signs of life. Any success for the balance of this season is directly tied to how this group performs. It’s nice to see the LBs actually not have to fight off OL and get to make some plays at the LOS. The pass coverage of Jelani Jenkins was great (hands – not so much). The young secondary was tested, and had some deserved penalties, but the refereeing in general was spotty at best, and some legitimate pass breakups and interceptions were wiped away by poor calls. This group has to continue to develop mental toughness to reduce lazy penalties, but there are some future SEC-caliber players emerging. Marcus Roberson is physical enough already to hold his own against the bigger WRs he’ll face. This unit really does need the healthy return of Jeremy Brown, though. Matt Elam is doing everything at safety, but needs better (and smarter) play from Josh Evans and Pop Saunders, who is still figuring out college football.

 On offense, the Gators dictated much of the tempo all day. Chris Rainey continues his early success, and hopefully doesn’t get beaten down too much as the season progresses. Trey Burton is still the one guy that can be counted on in the red zone. The OL is improving, but time is almost up before they play the big boys of the SEC. The WR group is still a disappointment, as not one guy has shown he can consistently get open and make plays. Perhaps that is partially a function of the simplistic game plans that have lead to wins, but that won’t cut it against Alabama and L$U. John Brantley has been functional so far, but is still missing some keys throws in the red zone that should be touchdowns – especially the quick seam route to either the WR or TE in the slot. He also has to improve his touch passing as well, losing a potential TD to Omarius Hines by not dropping a soft throw into the back of the end zone. Still a few shaky throws into coverage, but not as often as in 2010.

 So much for Tennessee being relevant in the SEC yet……they are gonna get punished over the next 6 weeks.

 Now comes the first road trip of the season to Kentucky, to face a Mildcat team that is really struggling. Tough cookies for them – the Gators need to step on their throat early and knock them out. Joker Phillips foolishly talked a lot of trash when he took over last year as to how UK was going to keep making strides……well, they are moonwalking backwards at this point. The 4 straight bowl games (3 under Rich Brooks) will be a distant memory after this season. They have lost the handful of SEC-level playmakers they had on both offense and defense to the past 2 NFL drafts, and are almost bankrupt of quality talent on both sides of the ball. Out of pure anger and embarrassment, they will probably hang around for the first half, but Florida should put them away in the 3rd quarter and start resting the starters for the brutal October stretch of games.

 I expect another vanilla game plan on both offense and defense, as the Gators have too much quality across the board and will overwhelm the Mildcats.

 Prediction – Florida 34 Kentucky 13

UAB Review / Tennessee Preview

Gator FootballFlorida ended the preseason with another solid effort against UAB.  The result was an easier-than-expected shutout of the Blazers, but there is a lot for the defense to continue to work on and improve.  UAB did hit some longer pass plays, one TD being called back by a penalty.  The young secondary has to improve communication and recognition of certain patterns.  The flats are still a little soft, but that may be given to UT this week to prevent big plays and to try and make the Vols impatient.

It looks like Weis wanted the running game to get some extra reps in the second half, as there were only 2 passes after halftime.  The OL started to show some cohesion on some pulling and trap blocks, opening up some interior lanes.  This could help keep Tennessee’s offense off the field and wear down a suspect UT defense.

The Gator front seven controlled the action most of the night.  Mike Gillislee came out of witness protection to remind folks that he is a quality RB, and is Florida’s best inside runner.  Trey Burton also started to show some flashes of what Weis will have him do all year — a jack-of-all-trades as an H-back.

Now the real season starts with the Volunteers coming to the Swamp, and talking a lot of trash for a sorry-ass team for the past 5 seasons.  They have 3 weapons on offense — QB Tyler Bray, and WRs Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers, holdovers from the Lame Kiffin debacle.  On paper this would seem to be a big advantage for UT, as the Gator secondary is young and untested.  However, the Vols have not shown a real running game yet, and their OL has no idea what is about to hit them.  The Gators get Sharrif Floyd back from suspension, joining an already strong DL that will look to punish Bray and let him know Florida is not Montana or Cincinnati, where he had all day to pick out receivers.

Coach Muschamp and Coach Quinn will definitely have some new looks and schemes ready to confuse Bray, despite an inexperienced secondary.  I really don’t expect an inordinate amount of blitzing, as I think the DL can control the LOS and get pressure on the QB without too much help.  I also expect to see a lot of new looks, such as more 3-4 alignments, with extra rushers coming from different angles.  The LBs need to clean up the flats, so the secondary can concentrate on preventing big plays and busted assignments.

I get the feeling Charlie Weis is going to pound the running game to wear down a mediocre Tennessee front seven, and to control the clock and tempo.  There will be some new formations and pass plays that he has not shown yet, but the Gator OL should be able to control the action.  Once again, John Brantley will be asked to manage the game and hit the occasional big play if there, while limiting turnovers.  Time for him and the WRs to step up their level of play, starting this week.

Volsheimers is once again in full effect, and once again Florida reminds Tennessee that they are the better team.

Prediction – Florida 31    Tennessee 21

FAU Review / UAB Preview

Florida GatorsA solid debut for the Gators against FAU. Vanilla schemes on both sides of the ball, good effort, and some big plays to put the game away early.

The offense looks like it might actually have a clue this fall. Weis exploited Demps and Rainey all evening against a soft, deep zone. Brantley looks more comfortable, and his timing on the swing passes was very good. Not much shown as far as a deep game, but that was mainly due to the deep zones and also to not showing much on film for upcoming opponents. The OL played pretty well for a first game, with few penalties. However, the interior run blocking was no better than average, and must improve as the competition toughens.

The defense dominated the first half, but was a little ragged the second. Easley and the other DL looked very good, getting quick penetration on almost every snap, and playing the run well. The LBs flowed to the ball well, but were sloppy in covering the flats and TE. The young secondary wasn’t really tested, but has a long way to go the be SEC-caliber. Decent tackling, but some silly penalties and blown coverages.  Finally, the news is good about the Sharrif Floyd suspension – he’s out one more game (this week), and will return for Tennessee.

UAB comes the Swamp this week, and they should prove to be more of a challenge. The Blazers have plenty of experience going on the road to face top teams, and will be a good measuring stick for Florida to see how much the Gators improve after week 1. UAB runs a 4- and 5-WR spread offense, a completely different look for a young Gator secondary, and I expect some struggles this week.

The Florida OL has to continue to mesh, and it’s time to show a little bit more downfield passing. I hope to see the TE become more of a threat this game. Demps and Rainey will always be capable of popping the big play, but consistent interior running lanes have to be made. The Gator defense will continue to rotate a lot of players in to get as much experience as possible before the SEC season starts.

UAB may stick around into the second half before Florida wears them down. It wouldn’t be a bad thing to see the team pushed harder to see how the younger players respond to some pressure. The mantra continues to be weekly development, and NO INJURIES.

Prediction – UF 38 UAB 17

FAU Preview

12Time for a fresh start across the board for the 2011 Florida Gators.  It starts with new Head Coach Will Muschamp, an almost completely new staff, and (hopefully) better coaching and play on the field this season.

Most of the off-season attention has been paid to re-building the offense.  The confidence of the entire unit, especially John Brantley, must have been shattered by abominable coaching and coordinating by the Dazzler, and Charlie Weis has a monumental job to get these guys believing they can compete in the SEC again.  I expect a vanilla scheme for the most part in the opener, but it appears Brantley will play more than you would normally expect, needing as many reps as he can get in the new offense before the SEC season starts.  Florida should be able to overpower FAU on the ground, but the timing and honing of the downfield passing game need to develop right away.

The perceived strength of the 2011 Gators is their defense, but this is a very young group with a thin depth chart at LB and in the secondary.  The defensive line will have to lead the way all season, starting in the opener, by getting run penetration and pressure on the QB.  Expect most of the roster to get some snaps in this game.  The linebackers and secondary have a few weeks to gear up for the SEC schedule, and still have along way to go to establish communication and cohesiveness.  That position is going to struggle at times in 2011, and it will get ugly at times.

FAU might hang around for 1-2 quarters on emotion and adrenaline, but Florida outclasses them across the board.  One coach starts his head coaching career, while another (Howard Schnellenberger) begins his last season.  The mantra for the opener is, as always, NO INJURIES.

Prediction  – UF 41        FAU 13