Just like last season, Florida comes into Jacksonville riding a disappointing 3-game losing streak, but this time with a new staff and a still-unsettled QB situation. The off week had to help the physical health of the team overall, but the main challenge for the coaches is to get the players into a positive mental state – no sure thing given the youth and inexperience of the 2011 Gators.

Florida’s defense will again be called upon to carry any real hope of victory. The pass rush has to improve, but the poor play of the DEs probably can’t be solved by any personnel changes – there is simply a void of SEC talent at this position. More blitzing by the LBs may be in the offing this week, but the sad thing is that this group is better in pass coverage than in run support, so that negates some of their strengths. That leaves the bulk of the responsibility and pressure on the DTs – Howard, Easley, Floyd, and Hunter. The secondary has 2 solid players in CB Marcus Roberson and S Matt Elam, but every other position in any scheme is shaky at best. No matter the personnel, it’s time to play more man-to man coverage and take your chances.

Georgia still relies on the pass for it’s most effective means of moving the football, which should help the Gators out based on their current personnel. The #1 priority is to stop the TEs from beating you……failure to do that almost guarantees a loss. That’s why I think you’ll see Bostic, Jenkins, and even Powell used to shadow Orson Charles and Aron White. They are the security blanket for Aaron Murray, as the Puppy WRs are inconsistent and simply not that scary – if they are the ones to make big plays, so be it. Malcolm Mitchell is probably their deep threat with his speed, and Tavarres King is their most experienced WR, but has never been a go-to guy. Georgia’s running game has recently begun to show signs of life again, but the injury status of Isaiah Crowell could hamper them. Given Florida’s struggles against the run recently, I’d be surprised if the Puppies didn’t try and exploit that weakness, but, again, I don’t think it’s in their nature to comfortably rely on running more than passing.

Georgia’s defensive front seven is fairly solid this season. The DL has a good size with DTs Jonathan Jenkins and Kwame Geathers (suspended for the 1st half). Jarvis Jones (transfer from USCwest) was a godsend to an underachieving unit, and Brandon Boykin can make plays in the secondary and as a kick returner. Overall not a terribly distinguished group, but it hasn’t taken much to stop the Gator offense in October. Of course, I can only hope that Florida finds a way to pull off the shocker and rub it in the face of that loser defensive coordinator, Todd Grantham, he of the choke sign to Chas Henry before his game-winning FG last year, and repeated missteps with opponents with his big mouth that isn’t backed up by a great defense.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Gator QB situation is handled this week. Will Brantley miraculously be well enough to play? Will Brissett and Driskel split halves like they did against Auburn? Can someone get a hot hand and play the majority of the game? This is what a loss to Georgia is made of unless someone rises to the challenge, and unfortunately neither of the freshmen looks the part yet. The Puppies have a good offense, not the mediocre crew that Auburn fielded that kept Florida in the game 2 weeks ago. It would be nice to see Mike Gillislee finally get the chance to carry the ball between the tackles, instead of Rainey bouncing most of his carries outside and giving up valuable yards. Maybe Jeff Demps is serviceable for a handful of meaningful snaps this week after not playing against the Tigers – the threat of his speed is still a concern for any defense, and can take some of the focus off of the young QBs.

I do believe that we will see more of the Wildcat on offense with Burton running the show. It has earned some solid yards in the running game, even in the past 3 games. The key for me is whether we will see it when Florida gets into the red zone instead of using it for getting out of the hole deep in it’s own territory. My opinion is this was a misstep by Coach Weis against Auburn, as the Gators could have punched in at least one touchdown that way to possibly steal the win.

The Gator WRs and TEs have been of zero help during the losing streak. Frankie Hammond is the only consistent performer. Coach Hill has to find a few guys that can raise their level of play to stretch the field and give the QBs at least a chance for success. Jordan Reed has been terribly inconsistent at TE – his route-running is poor, and both he and AC Leonard have been guilty of too many penalties. That simply has to stop, whether it’s by better focus or becoming comfortable with riding the bench.

Finally, the Florida OL has been inconsistent just like the rest of the team, but I still believe there is enough talent there to be effective. The OTs have struggled in pass protection, but hopefully the additional week of practice has tightened that up. The interior of the line has done an adequate job run-blocking in the Wildcat, but needs to translate that play to I-formation run plays as well.

Coach Muschamp and his entire staff have a huge challenge ahead of them the rest of the way……motivating the younger guys to continue to practice hard and improve, while keeping the seniors that have seen their hopes dashed engaged. My biggest hope is to actually see improvement in the fundamentals across the board for the balance of 2011, no matter the win/loss results.

The hardest thing for a young team to do is get off of a losing streak. Last year’s team still had a familiar coaching staff and a handful of senior leaders to pull together and get a much-needed win. Unfortunately neither of those applies to 2011, and the losing streak probably will stretch to 4 games for the first time in a LOOOOONG time. It pains me to predict this, because the Puppies are a mediocre team (as usual)……

Predictions:

Georgia 31 Florida 13 (if Brantley doesn’t play or is ineffective)

Georgia 27 Florida 20 (if Brantley is somewhat effective)

2012 starts now……

Another exercise in pain and suffering for Gator fans, as Florida threw away a winnable game at Auburn with horrid QB play and unconscionable turnovers on punt returns.  Despite the fact that Brissett and Driskel are true freshmen, are they really so limited in playmaking ability right now that the playcalling is barely above high school level?  Both guys missed a slew of open receivers all evening, even when they had time to throw – troubling.  The running game was marginally better, but Rainey has never broken his habit of giving up yards to bounce to the outside.  Gillislee must really stink in practice, because even after the staff said he would get more touches against Auburn, he remained the milk carton player of the week.  The only positive to come out of the running game was that Demps was held out, so he can try to get healthy again for the rest of the season.

Hammond seems to be the only consistent WR at this point.  Thompson is no factor, and Debose is always hurt……and needs to toughen up mentally if he ever expects to be a contributor.  Jordan Reed is wildly inconsistent as a route runner, cannot set the edge in the running game, and commits too many penalties.

The OL did not play well, despite a better matchup physically than the previous two weeks.  Green is having a rough learning experience at tackle.  Even the interior did not get a consistent push most of the night, which was especially disappointing.

Charlie Weis has to coach up the young QBs on reading defenses, and get them to improve their accuracy in a hurry.  As far as the playcalling, I’m actually OK with running some Wildcat with Burton at QB, as this seems to be the only way for Florida to generate a running game right now.  What I don’t get is not using it in the red zone – instead trying to get the young QBs to make plays that they have shown no ability yet to do.

The defense played hard all evening and hustled.  There is nothing more mentally difficult than trudging out time after time knowing your offense sucks, and that the game is essentially all on your shoulders.  They were valiant to the end, but simply couldn’t generate the big plays needed to steal the road win.  Beware of fool’s gold, though, as Auburn’s QB play was only slightly better, and their OL is mediocre.  What is amazing is the complete lack of turnovers generated by the defense……maybe due to schemes in place to play things safe, but……wow.

Player of the Game?  Matt Elam.  That kid is the real deal and a future all-SEC safety.

Special teams were disastrous.  Rainey was not even allowed to catch punts after the 1st quarter, and the final drop in the 4th quarter sealed Florida’s doom.  Why even allow someone to touch the ball at that point, when that was your last reasonable chance to tie the game?

Now that the Gators have essentially no meaningful goals to fulfill for 2011, it’s time for the staff to start making some difficult and significant decisions as to personnel moves, potential roster changes, and shaping the remainder of the 2012 recruiting class…….and even looking farther ahead to 2013 recruiting as well.  The remaking of the roster to fit the talents desired by the current staff will take a few more years……and will require a lot of patience from Gator fans.

In regards to the current roster……

Ron Powell is a non-factor at this point, and the staff needs to find a position where he can actually contribute to this team.  It may be time to consider a move to the offense.

Xavier Nixon is a great kid, but is simply not physically ready for SEC football.  Maybe move him to TE.

Either Driskel or Brissett have to make a move in practice the rest of the year to stake a claim as the 2012 starter.  Yes, Brantley will return before the end of 2011, but it’s all about the future now.

Sharrif Floyd is out of position at DE, and needs to move back inside to DT.  If this means Easley slides outside to DE for the rest of the season, so be it…..this move could actually benefit both guys right now.  The entire DE position is anemic right now.  If the staff can get some quality recruits in at this position, they are going to have the chance for immediate playing time……which, of course, will be especially painful in the SEC.

The LB play is not functional.  It’s time for Michael Taylor to get major reps, let Bostic and Jenkins fight it out at OLB, and get McCray in full-time at the other OLB spot.  McCray has actually played well this year, but is not a DE, and needs reps at OLB the rest of the season.

The safety position is in shambles.  Evens is not the answer, and Saunders is a freshman who is not an SEC safety, especially physically.  This would mean playing even more inexperienced guys like Shaw and maybe Purifoy the rest of 2011, but the staff has to give them their chance to better evaluate the possibilities for 2012.

Unfortunately, October has played out as many feared, and yes, it likely will get worse, as even Georgia is superior to Florida at this point and could make it a tough weekend in Jacksonville.  The coaches have a tremendously difficult task ahead in terms of keeping the young guys motivated, and getting leadership out of a senior class that might have lost it’s focus.

Two blowouts in a row.  First consecutive 28-point or worse losses since 1971.  No real chance given to the offense by a sieve of a run defense.  Another weak running attack by the offense.

Other than that – everything’s good in Gator Nation.  Then again……

The biggest disappointment about this latest debacle is the lack of mental toughness.  Maybe that’s to be expected somewhat by such a young team, but it’s Florida, and the SEC……no real excuse.

There really isn’t much positive to take from this game on offense or defense.  I will say that I’m impressed with Jacoby Brissett.  The kid doesn’t panic.  He CAN run as well…….when necessary. Notice he didn’t just break outside the pocket and into sacks……he stepped up into the pocket.  Also, he seems to have good pocket awareness……pretty deft in avoiding some tacklers.  He also wasn’t afraid to step into some throws with a defender getting ready to pound him.  For a true freshman with ZERO experience……on the road at #1……pretty damn impressive.

Actually, I though Weis was too careful with him and the playcalling. Screw the 2010 Dazzler offense of running Wildcat on 1st and 2nd down, then bringing the kid in on 3rd-and-long.  Maybe Weis was trying to coach Brissett up some on the sideline periodically, but I really think the kid deserves a chance to get into some kind of groove.  That may be especially difficult given the weak running game the past two weeks, but so be it.

The only other plays being made are either by Andre Debose, who’s finally starting to show some consistency at WR, and Rainey, who made some nice runs with second effort.

The failings of the run defense is particularly embarrassing.  Perhaps the front seven isn’t physically ready yet for a 4-quarter slugfest with Alabama or L$U, but that was painful to watch.  Was it technique, physical superiority, or intimidation of a hostile SEC road crowd?  Probably a combination of all 3, but still somewhat surprising.

The staff has to find a way to get through to these kids, or else Florida is headed for a 6-6 season.  It also may be time to seriously consider some drastic changes in personnel either after the upcoming game at Auburn or in the bye week before Georgia.

Ron Powell is completely out of position at DE, and it’s a waste of time to continue that failed experiment.  Let the kid play more stand up LB and in coverage.  Also, it might be time to slide Sharrif Floyd back inside to DT, and move Easley to DE, where he can better utilize his speed and quickness.  TE is a complete mess – Reed runs poor routes and is not a good in-line blocker, and AC Leonard is a penalty waiting to happen.  Quinton Dunbar and Omarius Hines are on the back of milk cartons at WR to date – pretty stunning.

It will be two desperate teams on the Plains this Saturday night, as the loser is out of the SEC race and can start building for 2012.  Auburn has been the more consistent team overall, and has a solid road win in it’s resume at S. Carolina.  However, their offense is plagued by inconsistency in the passing game, and opponents are starting to load up to stop Michael Dyer and Ontario McCalebb.  Emory Blake is a decent WR, but there best offensive weapon is TE Philip Lutzenkirchen.  Follow his blocks to see where the running play is going, and he’s a bad matchup for almost any LB or safety – great player.  He’ll have to be stopped if the Gators have any chance of stealing a win at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Tiger defense has struggled much of the season, but did show some flashes at S. Carolina two weeks ago, and held up for one half vs. a strong Arkansas offense.  They are searching for leadership after the departure of Nick Fairley to the NFL, and are currently a far cry from the last two defenses the Gators have faced.  Of course, facing a true freshman QB can cure a lot of ills.

The Gator offense will be better this week, and Brissett should have a little more time and be more comfortable. The run game has to become at least functional this week; 120 yards or so should be enough to help out the passing game. Look for some more deep shots to Debose to at least loosen things up, and it’s time to bring back the swing pass……it works.

Not much left to say about Florida’s defense.  It’s obvious to everyone that they have been bitch-slapped the past two weeks, and have not pushed back yet.  They should be able to match up physically with Auburn’s OL, and if they get run over again, there will be serious questions about whether some of these guys are quitting on the season.  Harsh, but true.

What will it take to get the win?  Better special teams play, less stupid penalties, and the defense rising to the challenge – even perhaps getting a turnover or two to help the cause.

I actually think Auburn will be pressing as well to win, and this could benefit the Gators.  Unfortunately, the offense is still limited by a true freshman QB in only his second start, and I can’t see it overcoming another tough road crowd to get a much-needed win.

Prediction – Auburn 27        Florida 17

What started as a promising effort turned into an ugly affair in the second half, as Florida was worn down and eventually beaten up by Alabama in the Swamp.

We’re all disappointed, and many are pissed.  Imagine how the coaches and players feel.

It will be interesting to see how the experience of this staff, much of it from the NFL, transfers to how they get the players to re-focus and prepare for the next game.  Yeah, the QB is out, but the next guy steps in and you move on.

Florida has enough talent and playmakers to stay with Bama at home, but the loss of Brantley was way too much for the offense to overcome.  Coach Weis had an effective plan in place, but losing Brantley scuttled that plan, and Driskel was overmatched in a game of this magnitude against a strong opponent.  The passing scheme was effective the entire first half, and the Gators, while getting little to nothing from the running game, were still moving the ball through the air.  The pass protection was actually pretty good, but the OL seemed to be overpowered when trying to block man for man in the running game.  An unlucky interception for a defensive TD really changed the momentum in the 2nd quarter, and the Gators never really recovered.  There were some nice individual efforts given by Debose and Thompson, but not enough positive plays from the rest of the supporting cast.

Biggest disappointment?  Zero running game.  Biggest surprise?  No swing passes to see if Rainey and Demps could make something happen in space.

The Florida DL was, quite frankly, a disappointment.  The tackles simply did not get penetration often enough to keep the Tide offense off-schedule on first down, and the lack of top-tier DE play was sorely apparent, as Bama had no trouble setting the edge in the run game all night.  The LB play was pretty much MIA, as Bostic and Jenkins simply were whipped and overpowered.  The secondary did a good job overall, but never was truly tested as the Bama running attack dictated the action most of the game.  Again, some flashes from individuals like Easley and Howard, but no consistency, and lack of support from the rest of the defense.

No rest for the weary, as the Gators travel to death Valley to face a solid Tiger team with a great defense of it’s own.  LSU has a fast DL that can occasionally be gashed in the run game, but hasn’t really been challenged that way since their opener against Oregon.  They start 3 senior LBs, and the best playmaking secondary in the country, led by CBs Tyrann Mathieu, Morris Claiborne, and safety Brandon Taylor.  Not as physically large as Alabama, but probably a little quicker with loads of depth.

LSU’s offense is pretty vanilla with Jarrett Lee at QB, preferring to pound away with a strong running game featuring a deep rotation of RBs led by Spencer Ware and Michael Ford, with the occasional downfield throw when the defense has to put 8 in the box.  The Tigers actually have some dangerous WRs in Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham, and Russell Shepard, and hopefully they remain underutilized this week.

L$U has proven it’s mettle this season already, and will probably have to take the Gators a little lightly for Florida to have any chance to steal a win, especially given the potential offensive constraints.  The real grind of an SEC season starts to take shape with this game, and I don’t believe the Gators have enough experience and playmakers on offense to give Driskel enough help to win.

It’s hard to anticipate what kind of game plan to expect.  Coach Weis will divide a plan for Driskel’s strengths, but he simply doesn’t have any quality experience right now.  The OL has to nut up and provide some running room for Rainey and Demps.  One thing I can venture a guess about is the return of the swing pass early on to try and make some big plays and loosen up the Tiger defense.

The Gator defense will again be tested in big-boy football, as they can expect a steady diet of power running all afternoon.  I’m sure Coaches Muschamp and Quinn will have some Bama tape to provide incentive for a better effort, and I expect one.  But unless the Florida offense somehow sustains some drives to give this unit a rest, they will likely again wear down in the second half.

Probably a handful of fragile psyches right now, but this is the SEC, and it’s a “tough-ass league”, as described by Urban Meyer after he lost at Auburn in 2006 with a better team.

Charlie Weis is a smart guy, and will give Driskel a game plan he can execute with success. Now, will that translate to a win?  Not unless the defense is lights-out.  But we shall see.

It is tremendously difficult, especially with college guys, to move on from such a tough loss, especially when you’re thrown right back into the Lion’s (Tiger’s) Den the very next week with a new QB and potential scheme changes. Lots of turmoil and disappointment right now. I think we have the staff, with Muschamp, Weis, Quinn, etc., to get these kids ready to compete.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Gonna be an interesting next 4 weeks……

Prediction – L$U 30        Florida 13